Erie Otters 2020 Offseason Thread

[NOA]

If no other trades are made but they add Marat, this would be my projection

Golod -Lockhart - Yetman
Swankler - Khusnutdinov - Saganiuk
DAmato - Cohen - Hoffmann
Sellan/Sproule - Bressette - Ross

I think it has to be that UNLESS you move Swankler, but in that case you are really dwindling your talent. Of course Marat could still not show up, in which case you really are screwed

I don’t see how you don’t have those top 6 guys all locked into the top 9 if they are here. Lockhart and Saganiuk may not be quite ready but you can’t play them on the 4th line and expect to feel good about us moving forward..so they are in the top 9.
Cohen is the wildcard but if he’s ready, he has to jump Sellan imo. Then Erie should look to move one of Sellan/Sproule and hope a 2019 draft pick can be fill a depth role as 12/13 forward with Ross

 

[EON]

If no other trades are made but they add Marat, this would be my projection

Golod -Lockhart - Yetman
Swankler - Khusnutdinov - Saganiuk
DAmato - Cohen - Hoffmann
Sellan/Sproule - Bressette - Ross

I think it has to be that UNLESS you move Swankler, but in that case you are really dwindling your talent. Of course Marat could still not show up, in which case you really are screwed

I don’t see how you don’t have those top 6 guys all locked into the top 9 if they are here. Lockhart and Saganiuk may not be quite ready but you can’t play them on the 4th line and expect to feel good about us moving forward..so they are in the top 9.
Cohen is the wildcard but if he’s ready, he has to jump Sellan imo. Then Erie should look to move one of Sellan/Sproule and hope a 2019 draft pick can be fill a depth role as 12/13 forward with Ross

Good projection, I mostly agree with you, except I think both Sellan/Sproule should be moved in this scenario, with Sedore playing #4 LW. He's an '02 and still may have more to give, could develop into a good 3rd liner for the 21/22 season.

21/22 possible lineup:

Swankler (OA) - Lockhart - Saganiuk
D'Amato (OA) - Cohen - Hoffmann (OA)
Sedore-Bressette-Ross
2019 or 2020 pick - 2021 1st rounder - Kaleb Smith (2020 6th)

This assuming Khushnutdinov is a 1 and done. If Kolosov is also a 1 and done, they should re-draft Kulakov to help on defense, since he seems to be interested in Erie and is an '02, try to add another top 6 forward with their other import pick (preferably an '03), and go with Campbell-Lalonde as the goalie duo.

 

[NOA]

Good projection, I mostly agree with you, except I think both Sellan/Sproule should be moved in this scenario, with Sedore playing #4 LW. He's an '02 and still may have more to give, could develop into a good 3rd liner for the 21/22 season.

21/22 possible lineup:

Swankler (OA) - Lockhart - Saganiuk
D'Amato (OA) - Cohen - Hoffmann (OA)
Sedore-Bressette-Ross
2019 or 2020 pick - 2021 1st rounder - Kaleb Smith (2020 6th)

This assuming Khushnutdinov is a 1 and done. If Kolosov is also a 1 and done, they should re-draft Kulakov to help on defense, since he seems to be interested in Erie and is an '02, try to add another top 6 forward with their other import pick (preferably an '03), and go with Campbell-Lalonde as the goalie duo.

Totally forgot about Sedore

No doubt he should be 4th line in my scenario. So I agree, move both Sproule/Sellan if they are only 4th liners. Ross and another younger player currently unsigned should be the 12/13th forwards

The 2021 projection isn’t the worst if certain guys develop. The biggest thing this year is the youth. Lockhart and Saganiuk need to pan out as stars. Cohen/Bressette need to show relevant improvement. Ross hopefully shows upside.

Same thing on the backend with Morton, Kyrou, Murphy(?), and Sova.

 

[Mata]

NOA and EON...

Do you currently see anyone on the current roster who will develop into top tier? Right now I feel like outside of the OA:

Swankler could become pretty good, I would say PPG player by the end of his tenure here. His first year was solid, this year we will see if he can build and MAYBE lead.

Lockhart has the potential to get there, but I still think he is a year off.

Hoff, Sellan, Sproule, Sedore, D'Amato, Cohen just don't give me that vibe and are the depth/support players teams utilize to fill needs. The last year Hoff line would have to make a big jump collectively and I'm not sure the ceiling is there. Bressette, Ross, and Saganiuk are essentially first year players so maybe best case we get 20 - 30 points or a breakout being somewhere near 40 from Saganiuk like Swankler did in his transition to the OHL.

Defensively we are in even more questionable shape with Drysdale and Morton (outside of Duff) with any real significant time. Kryou held his own, but will be a tough sell if he doesn't get bigger and bulk up, Sova seems to be pretty physical which is a positive, but 0 experience. Kish and Gillard have been injury plagued...

I'm starting to see that hill look steeper and steeper.

 

[NOA]

I think it’s way too early Mata

Lockhart only played 1 year and imo his biggest weakness is confidence and strength. Which could easily change 180 degrees for him after one offseason. He has elite hands and skating. Be patient..

Saganiuk is a tough read. He was buried on the USNDT which happens when only the best of the best make it. His draft year, people had him as a top 10 talent/projection but he was already signed to US team. I remember one scout saying post draft the best or most explosive skaters in the draft were Saganiuk and Lockhart...both drafted by Erie

He’s another where we have to wait and see but those 2 have the traits to be special. If they are to reach it, we will at least get a good glimpse this year

Cohen/Bressette I think have solid 4/5/6 forward potential. Not superstars but certainly good players. Brown is super high on both but particularly Cohen. You can’t just look at stat production for 16/17 year olds..
if that were the case, Cazzola, Maksimovich, Luciani should have been cut after 1/2 years

Swankler could be a nice OA. DAmato and Hoffmann are more in the Betz/Pettit class but solid veteran depth

Ross it’s just way too early to know but OSU commit makes me think he has some talent

I think your expectations are too crazy. They have good potential. I would take their youth (signed players only) over probably 75% of the league. Maybe more. Give it time..

 

[NOA]

This is why I told you before, they aren’t good enough to go all in this year. Too many question marks and too much youth.

I understand the fans want to win but you have to be realistic and patient. Brown certainly will be. And if you don’t have patience, then find - waste your remaining assets on a half a** attempt to make a run and get shredded by round 3. Then you can really enjoy the major setback into basement life for the next idk 3-5 years.

They are much better served trying to focus in on 2022-23 as their next “all in” year. If those young players this year show something, all the more reason to believe we should be gearing up for that season. Doesn’t mean they have to suck the next two years but don’t waste your time/assets on this season. Flip some players/picks to stay competitive and keep the fans happy.

I mean it’s too early to see if 2022 could be a special group but it has a chance to be if the younger guys show something this year

 

[J Simmons]

NOA and EON...

Do you currently see anyone on the current roster who will develop into top tier? Right now I feel like outside of the OA:

Swankler could become pretty good, I would say PPG player by the end of his tenure here. His first year was solid, this year we will see if he can build and MAYBE lead.

Lockhart has the potential to get there, but I still think he is a year off.

Hoff, Sellan, Sproule, Sedore, D'Amato, Cohen just don't give me that vibe and are the depth/support players teams utilize to fill needs. The last year Hoff line would have to make a big jump collectively and I'm not sure the ceiling is there. Bressette, Ross, and Saganiuk are essentially first year players so maybe best case we get 20 - 30 points or a breakout being somewhere near 40 from Saganiuk like Swankler did in his transition to the OHL.

Defensively we are in even more questionable shape with Drysdale and Morton (outside of Duff) with any real significant time. Kryou held his own, but will be a tough sell if he doesn't get bigger and bulk up, Sova seems to be pretty physical which is a positive, but 0 experience. Kish and Gillard have been injury plagued...

I'm starting to see that hill look steeper and steeper.

I’m sticking by what I’ve preached with all the posts I’ve made on this thread and am saying that 1-3 of the Hoff/Sellan/D’amato line will have a large jump this year. This helps my confidence moving into next year and the year after. Obviously I doubt we’ll be making a chip run this coming year. But with Fowler leaving (arguably a primadonna) and the possibility of getting back some players soon, we could easily establish ourselves as a solid team with depth and a developing core. Saganiuk and Lockhart are two proven skaters and young prospects with high upside, the future is bright there. We also have Ross, although younger can Definitley show growth in his first year. We also have an 03 in Kyrou playing his first full year on defence this coming year. Morton, Cohen, Sedore, all players that have gotten the rookie “fears” out of them and are ready to find their place... just because these guys are younger and seemingly unproven doesn’t take away from what they’ve shown us... I would say we simply need a bit of editing in terms of our power play and defence. If we get a solid top 4 defenceman to round out our D then we will have a solid base to perform with, having pretty much 5/6 defence being 2nd year+ vets with Sova being the outlier

I’m gonna stay and fangirl over that fan favourite line and I’ll back it up anyday, but 2/3 need to stick together at least I’d say... Hoffmann has had back to back 12 goal years as a player who doesn’t play power play and line matches top lines (and in the process has become ranked by NHL central scouting). D’amato is a midget draft pick that more than doubled his points from last year and has shown increasing upside (was also high +\-). Sellan has shown amazing penalty kill and defensive upside, as well as being a power play player. The talent/grit and ceiling are their, however differing they may be, are still very important to our success moving forward. By comparison, you could argue we wouldn’t have had the success we had in the past without Petit/Betz type players as well.

I find Lockhart as being a player that could go upwards of 70-80 points this year depending on intangibles. Being mentally strong in a second year can make or break your career. Mcmichael did it, Harley as well. Lockhart seems to be queued up to do the same hopefully.

 

[Generalsupdates]

I find Lockhart as being a player that could go upwards of 70-80 points this year depending on intangibles. Being mentally strong in a second year can make or break your career. Mcmichael did it, Harley as well. Lockhart seems to be queued up to do the same hopefully.

You think the best Lockhart comparable is Connor McMichael? I havent seen Lockhart enough being an Ottawa guy then playing in the Western Conference.

Do most Erie fans see Lockhart getting 70-80 points next year? That would be a huge jump

 

[J Simmons]

You think the best Lockhart comparable is Connor McMichael? I havent seen Lockhart enough being an Ottawa guy then playing in the Western Conference.

Do most Erie fans see Lockhart getting 70-80 points next year? That would be a huge jump

I use it as the “anything can happen” comparable... McMichael never showed amazing stints in terms of his ability to score in his first year, however his second year he upped his production and eyes were pointed his direction...

 

[NOA]

You think the best Lockhart comparable is Connor McMichael? I havent seen Lockhart enough being an Ottawa guy then playing in the Western Conference.

Do most Erie fans see Lockhart getting 70-80 points next year? That would be a huge jump

Greg McKegg went from 18 points (8 goals) to 85 points (37 goals) in year 1 to 2 on similarly talented teams to what Erie is now

Do I expect Lockhart to do that? No. Because those are high expectations but big jumps in year two happen frequently. A more realistic expectation is 60-65 point range. Lockhart had 27 points as a rookie.. let’s not act like he had no production

 

[NOA]

I use it as the “anything can happen” comparable... McMichael never showed amazing stints in terms of his ability to score in his first year, however his second year he upped his production and eyes were pointed his direction...

Wasn’t really a matter of him being buried that much in London either because that 2017-18 team is one of the worst they had during that decade, especially after their sell off.

Hard to project though because it’s not just on Lockhart to get better. Hopefully the coaches put him in spots to succeed and players around him also improve.

 

[Generalsupdates]

Greg McKegg went from 18 points (8 goals) to 85 points (37 goals) in year 1 to 2 on similarly talented teams to what Erie is now

Do I expect Lockhart to do that? No. Because those are high expectations but big jumps in year two happen frequently. A more realistic expectation is 60-65 point range. Lockhart had 27 points as a rookie.. let’s not act like he had no production

Is Lockhart going to have a Zack Torquato who’s going to get 62 assists in 68 games? Haha

Getting Marat would certainly help get some free points

 

[NOA]

The talent/grit and ceiling are their, however differing they may be, are still very important to our success moving forward. By comparison, you could argue we wouldn’t have had the success we had in the past without Petit/Betz type players as well.

I agree that Pettit and Betz were important depth pieces. But note the word depth. During their run 2015-16 was their worst year, when they had Betz/Marchment in the top 6.
In 2016-17 Erie added pieces so they could push Pettit back to a more familiar, realistic role for him on the 3rd line

I don’t dispute that 3rd line players that play a two-way game are musts on any team, especially during a title run. The problem is a mixed bag of trying to compete/be better, while not being good enough for a title, while also have young talent that NEED ice time

There has to be a balance act there, which might mean only keeping 2 of the 3 from that line. Imo Erie can’t afford to be a 35 win team with three 2001s eating up all the 3rd line minutes (add to it 2 OAs and another 2001 in the top 6).

The 4th line isn’t going to work for guys like Lockhart, Saganiuk, and Cohen this year. Otherwise they are failed attempts at developing. Bressette makes more sense in a 4th line role but as the year progresses, he may need to start getting more ice. Sedore also is a wildcard

Now, if the team is going to compete more and be say a 3/4 seed because those certain developments happen and those 3rd liners all bump up there game .. Fine. Keep them together. But anything less than that means I better see the young guys learning, developing or then we must admit Erie has a real talent problem a year from now as these players mentioned are “busts”

 

[NOA]

Is Lockhart going to have a Zack Torquato who’s going to get 62 assists in 68 games? Haha

Getting Marat would certainly help get some free points

Idk.. you tell me. Max Golod had 53 assists last year in 5 less games played and a year younger than when Torquato had 62 assists (Torquato the year prior had 34 assists).

Honestly I don’t even recall if McKegg played with Torquato that year - both were centers.

I figured someone would try to minimize McKeggs numbers by seeing the talent around him. It’s why I picked his year 2 jump in particular .. because he didn’t have elite talent around him. Taylor Raddysh has a big year 2 jump too but also had great talent to play with

As for Marat, yes he will help. But he’s also a center like Lockhart. Would not expect them to play together. Lockhart would be better served to work with Golod/Yetman

 

[Saggy]

You think the best Lockhart comparable is Connor McMichael? I havent seen Lockhart enough being an Ottawa guy then playing in the Western Conference.

Do most Erie fans see Lockhart getting 70-80 points next year? That would be a huge jump

Not here to burst any bubbles but Lockhart is a very different player than McMichael. He is a great skater with an excellent shot. Size is his main issue both from a height and weight perspective. A solid OHL Dman over 6'0 is going to take space away and make it difficult to utilize his speed and find the time to get his shot off. Great player but limited due to size.....hopefully, like many other smaller players, he will find his niche and have a solid breakout year.

Saganiuk is a little different. Same size concerns but makes up from it but playing with a chip on his shoulder and is ultra-aggressive. He may have a better 2020/2021 than Lockhart.

 

[NOA]

Not here to burst any bubbles but Lockhart is a very different player than McMichael. He is a great skater with an excellent shot. Size is his main issue both from a height and weight perspective. A solid OHL Dman over 6'0 is going to take space away and make it difficult to utilize his speed and find the time to get his shot off. Great player but limited due to size.....hopefully, like many other smaller players, he will find his niche and have a solid breakout year.

Saganiuk is a little different. Same size concerns but makes up from it but playing with a chip on his shoulder and is ultra-aggressive. He may have a better 2020/2021 than Lockhart.

I think you misinterpreted JSim..

Nobody is comparing Lockhart to McMichael. The point is to say that 2nd year leaps are common among top talent

What Lockhart did or didn’t do as a rookie does not mean what he will or won’t do as a sophomore.

I’m not blaming you Saggy but this conversation is about 2nd year improvement/production. Not about direct player comparisons. I did not see anyone say Lockhart would put up huge numbers because he’s “the same as McMichael!”

Lockhart has to get bigger/stronger in order to feel more confident. That’s a given. But I saw how much DeBrincat, Brown, Maksimovich improves over the years simply due to getting stronger. Height

 

[Saggy]

I expect to see him have a solid year....high 40s to mid 50s in points

 

[HockeyPops]

If he gets solid top 6 ice time, I see no reason that he couldn't have a sophomore season like Hardie/Kerins/Foerster approaching a point-per-game.

 

[NOA]

I expect to see him have a solid year....high 40s to mid 50s in points

I think it depends who he’s paired with. If he’s with Golod/Yetman and getting top PP minutes, he should be closer to a PPG.

I want to say 50s is fair expectations but also minimum expectations. I mean Sproule went from 13 to 37 points and his year 2. So he tripled his production. Lockhart has much more skill, put up 27 in year one, and should be surrounded by better players. Typically, guys double their production in second year. That’s not a guarantee but I would say it happens frequently. It also is commonplace to see guys triple their production.

Lockhart also missed 11 games of action. He was on pace for 32 points in 68 game season. Based on all those factors, it’s fair to expect 65+ points if he’s developing properly.

 

[NOA]

Side note to Lockhart: listened to a podcast with him from a couple weeks back and he admitted his biggest issue was confidence. Feels that offseason workouts with guys like Claude Giroux, other pros, and great training has helped him get that confidence back. He expects to be a more impactful player and has been working out in Ottawa since April

Also, he sounds really mature for his age. I listened to other interviews with Clarke, Harrison, McCallum and something about Lockhart makes him sound 2/3 years older. Even just compared to last year’s post draft interviews, Lockhart sounds much more mature than he was a year ago

I often equate coming across as mature to also being confident for what it’s worth. He just sounds like he’s grown up a ton over the last year

 

[Mata]

Thought this was an inspiring tweet for someone who had to leave the game too soon...

 

[NOA]

Just an observation but I noticed Wil Murphy is working out with Duff and Morton in Kingston.

Hoping Murphy is ready to make the jump this year and Erie can sign him. Adding him to the roster with Sova, Kyrou, Morton gives Erie a nice little group to build with.

 

[Mata]

Just an observation but I noticed Wil Murphy is working out with Duff and Morton in Kingston.

Hoping Murphy is ready to make the jump this year and Erie can sign him. Adding him to the roster with Sova, Kyrou, Morton gives Erie a nice little group to build with.

I think he was close last season, wasn't he?

Maybe in one of the last cuts.

 

[NOA]

I think he was close last season, wasn't he?

Maybe in one of the last cuts.

He did not play in the exhibition games, where Erie carried a roster of 28. Was cut with 12 other players prior to that.

Not sure how close he really was but Erie had tons of bodies last year on defense and they still do. But if Murphy is improved, he should be a nice option to sign

 

[EON]

He did not play in the exhibition games, where Erie carried a roster of 28. Was cut with 12 other players prior to that.

Not sure how close he really was but Erie had tons of bodies last year on defense and they still do. But if Murphy is improved, he should be a nice option to sign

Murphy is 100% making this team unless he really hasn't progressed since last season. Erie seems to love the Kingston dmen (Duff, Morton, now Murphy). He'll probably be the #7D this season but he seems like a solid piece for the future.