Erie Otters 2020 Offseason Thread
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Here’s the problem when looking at Fowler’s value:
In Erie, he was stuck developmentally. I don’t see how he reaches his potential other than coaching change or someone like Khusnutdinov lighting it up and carrying him. Imo he has shown he can’t carry a line. He needs a “star” to take that pressure off him.
So at best, Fowler’s value here was a 60-70 point guy IF he could stay healthy. Anything more would be major surprise. If you wait to hold onto him, you might lower his value as maybe he gets another injury or really struggles early on in year. He’s the type of guy you either move now or risk the continued loss of value
I’m happy with the return. Would I have liked another 3rd instead of the 5th? Yes. But I’m happy that Erie moved him now, still got solid value, and they don’t risk sitting on him and getting zero back (If Covid causes issues or he has another injury).
And if he ends up drafted in October and has a big breakthrough year.. he might be gone next season anyways. If he’s in the OA next year too, it probably indicates all you need to know..
Erie also has OA logjam for next year - now they are down to Swankler, DAmato, Hoffmann, Gillard as realistic options. Which is a good thing as we know OAs have less trade value
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Given his actual stat line for the last several seasons, I'm not sure they could. It is a risk/risk for both teams IMO.
The big red flag was games played. Couple that with his temper and I feel like the 2nd/3rd is actually a reasonable price. Had the last season been a full one, without injury I think it would have been fair to still move him for locker room reasons and get a better return...perhaps two second round picks and a 5th or a second and two 3rd round picks plus the conditional 5th.
As it stands, what has happened already hurt him enough and like you pointed out a risk whether we kept him for a period of time and then went for a trade or traded him now. We just don't know what "Fowler" we have after 3 seasons.
Now, as far as direction it is anyone's guess.
We NEED to sign Marat now more than ever. Otherwise, I do fear we have to try and get an elite return for the big 3 + Drysdale. As far as what this does for the Brown/Hartsburg legacy it is about as consistent as the line changes each game last year. I don't know if there is any way to predict what comes next other than Henry...who could stay if they are looking to unload Duff with a higher trade value.
Totally agree with the projected values
There is too much risk and what he is here vs what he does elsewhere does not necessarily mean Erie screwed this up. What he is here is noted. He has issues in his game that he needs to fix and time to fix in Erie is running or has run out
I think he’s capable of putting up 60-70 points in Oshawa next year if he plays in the top 6. But those unknown red flag factors of “injury,” “discipline,” and “pandemic” means Erie will get slightly lesser value
As for Marat,
I still am confident he signs if there is a season. Why hasn’t he signed yet? Because the OHL has really nothing more than a proposed plan with wishful thinking. But it’s also why erie hasn’t signed Kolosov/Kulakov - they are waiting for Marat. Which they can’t get him on the dotted line until the season outlook becomes more clear
My bigger concern is what do Lockhart and Saganiuk do this year..
What kind of locker room problems are you guys talking about for Fowler? I met him a couple times in the Soo and he seemed like a nice kid and good teammate, but that was such a short tenure.
Yeah I don’t think anyone is saying he’s a bad kid or rude or even a bad teammate. What he is off ice with fans/teammates vs in the locker vs during games are all different
He wore the A and most teammates get along at this level/age of hockey. So I don’t think it’s that type of issue
But there is no denying his reckless penalties and his lack of consistent effort on the defensive end which often leads to careless/selfish penalties
(78 PIMs in 52 games)
(-11 on +/- which was 2nd worst rate among players behind only rookie Lockhart)
Erie gave him a leadership role because they needed him to be one of “the guys”
But instead he folded with the added responsibility and expectations. He often got too frustrated and just didn’t seem to have consistent games during any stretch of the season.
Im not blaming it all on him. Sometimes a change of scenery is needed. It simply did not work last year with this team and part of the issue was certain guys didn’t reach expectations
Lockhart is still raw and young. I think he has the potential to be a top 3 in Erie and a leader. However, there was no indication he could be a leader so my biggest concern with Lockhart is we do not know if he can carry lines or is a support player. He can play with the top line at times, but not consistently, yet! I think we will find out that direction more into this 2nd season.
As for Saganiuk, I think he will come in with about the same expectation as Lockhart. We will find out as the season goes whether he can carry a line or not.
On our radar Marat appears to be the only possible incoming player who should carry a line from the start, assuming he comes.
We have a ton of question marks...
Morton, Kyrou, Bressette, Sproule, Gillard, Campbell, not to mention the other goalies who are 100% untested in the OHL. Our defense is suspect as it is outside of Duff/Drysdale...and now our top 2 lines are filled with questions.
Do we run
Golod/Yeti/Swankler?
Marat/Saganiuk/Lockhart?
Am I missing someone that could sit in the top 6?
I know I'll ruffle your feathers NOA by saying the most consistent line we have is Hoff/Sellan/D'Amato lol.
I will be blunt...
Folwer is a primadona. When he is on, there is no denying he is one of the best players on the ice any given night and by a lot. When he is off, the train falls off the tracks...unnecessary penalties, loses his head in games, takes himself out of games...
If you can consistently get the confident and healthy Fowler, you have a grand slam player. As it stands, I think Erie had the every other day Fowler who is still better than most, but not consistent enough to be elite.
As far as how he interacts with the fans/kids he has improved over the past couple years. I think he is a love/hate teammate and some people will just not like him no matter what, and that is OK.
Looking at Fowler’s production last year:
He had 52gp 20g 22a 42pts
On the surface, solid production
However, he started hot and then struggled down the stretch
First 20gp - 11g 13a 24pts
Final 32gp - 9g 9a 18pts
His injury was way late in year so doesn’t explain his significant slip in production. He went from 1.20 ppg to 0.56 ppg
PIMs were an issue throughout the year though
He had 52gp 20g 22a 42pts
On the surface, solid production
However, he started hot and then struggled down the stretch
First 20gp - 11g 13a 24pts
Final 32gp - 9g 9a 18pts
His injury was way late in year so doesn’t explain his significant slip in production. He went from 1.20 ppg to 0.56 ppg
PIMs were an issue throughout the year though
I still really like Lockhart. I thought what he did as an undersized rookie was solid. He was 9th among 2003 born rookies in scoring.
Pinelli, McTavish, Harrison, Stillman, Othmann were on better offenses/teams. He was also 5’8 while the others ahead were all 5’11-6’0 range
I’ll I’m saying is, he’s on the right track. Lodnia had great rookie year/production but also played with great talent. Lockhart lesser talent to work with or carry the load for him a bit
December IIRC was when they started the slide in the standings and the injuries started to mount. I initially thought it could have been his injuries, but after you pointed it out, it was during that middle stint when he started to tail off with regards to production. Ironically I think his penalties dropped to the end of the season, but you'd have to back me up there.
First 20gp - 38pims
Last 32gp - 40pims
So yes, the PIMs did tail off.
In his 25gp without a point, he had 26 PIMs (including 10 PIMs in 1 single game)
In his 27gp with a point or more, he had 52 PIMs.
I find that interesting and means that many of his penalties could not simply be explained away by his frustration with his own production/performance because he actually took more penalties in games where he made an impact on the scoresheet. Also indicates he might be a player that NEEDS to play with a loose edge to be more productive. But Erie can’t afford that from him under current roster construction and the fact that his production/talent doesn’t warrant the type and amount of penalties
Mark Scheig confirms Fowler did not ask for trade as Erie fans knew was likely the case
This trade is a matter of Erie moving on from someone who just doesn’t fit and they can no longer afford to be patient with
Just read the quotes from Brown on the Murphy trade and on the Fowler trade..
It’s clear they didn’t think Fowler was a fit and didn’t want him. Murphy they were forced to move on from but wished they didn’t have to
This trade is a matter of Erie moving on from someone who just doesn’t fit and they can no longer afford to be patient with
Just read the quotes from Brown on the Murphy trade and on the Fowler trade..
It’s clear they didn’t think Fowler was a fit and didn’t want him. Murphy they were forced to move on from but wished they didn’t have to
Murphy makes sense...
Fowler, not sure if I buy into it entirely. Yes they have moved on because he wasn't what was expected, but was he that person who was not cohesive on the team? I assume him wearing the A last year means it wasn't him and possibly someone else.
As for other Otters’ potential moves, Brown said they will continue to look at the roster and make decisions. He did say something that stood out to me. “We want to be galvanized together and have the best team chemistry possible.”
^^ said like a week or two ago.
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All I’m saying is Brown’s tone was very distant. He basically thanked him for contributing as a rookie, which was 2.5 years..
I would not be shocked to see Swankler moved too if they also feel he didn’t fit into things. Move him and Henry for another 2/3 high end picks, then you could flip some of these picks you got for a fresh face, top 6 forward.
As far as the hot headed players, if Folwer is 1a then Swankler is 1b. However, what is the end game? Surrounding ourselves with draft picks, mediocre talent and "yes men"?
If that's the case then they are going to piss off a lot of people as the team is looking more and more like an 8 - 10 instead of a 3 - 6 for another year.
My only thought is this season goes on without fans and they don't care what we think because the latest in the NHL talks are more bubble cities to play in for the start of next season.
I still feel the same way I did in April/May - good luck to the OHL to figure out how to play this year
Billion dollar corporations like the college football conferences already shut down all of fall sports. The NFL basically has said no fans in stands or severely limited capacity (20-30%). The NHL/NBA is only surviving with playoff bubbles
I’ll be shocked if the OHL can play. Some fans think the issue is American teams but they fail to realize the Canadian citizens are not immune and still need to partake in social distancing - just because you have it “under control” now doesn’t mean it’s over. So, there are many hurdles for the OHL to play again.
Maybe they come back in the late winter/spring for a 34 game season? I just don’t picture it being a real season or even close to it. Smart to trade at least some guys now and get whatever you can for them
I think most fans expected at least one of Fowler or Swankler to be moved based on rumors. If you didn’t expect it, fine, but you at least can’t say you are surprised by it
I posted Fowler’s numbers last night but I thought let’s compare to Swankler
Fowler:
First 20gp - 11g 13a 24pts (+0)
Final 32gp - 9g 9a 18pts (-11)
Swankler:
First 20gp - 5g 13a 18pts (-1)
Final 32gp - 11g 12a 23pts (+12)
(Swankler also played 7 more games in the middle of those two spreads, where he had 2g, 2a (-2))
Swankler had 61 PIMs in 59gp (3 fights)
Fowler had 78 PIMs in 52gp (1 fight)
The numbers indicate Swankler was more consistent all year, more disciplined, and a better defensive forward. He also has bigger size and maybe as a result less prone to injury. And he is more of a true center with it being his first year in the league so certainly an adjustment for him
I guess it’s possible they still move Swankler as well. But looking at the 2001s, they had to move on from one of those 2 to get some assets and fix their pending OA situation. Appears they picked Swankler to keep
I posted Fowler’s numbers last night but I thought let’s compare to Swankler
Fowler:
First 20gp - 11g 13a 24pts (+0)
Final 32gp - 9g 9a 18pts (-11)
Swankler:
First 20gp - 5g 13a 18pts (-1)
Final 32gp - 11g 12a 23pts (+12)
(Swankler also played 7 more games in the middle of those two spreads, where he had 2g, 2a (-2))
Swankler had 61 PIMs in 59gp (3 fights)
Fowler had 78 PIMs in 52gp (1 fight)
The numbers indicate Swankler was more consistent all year, more disciplined, and a better defensive forward. He also has bigger size and maybe as a result less prone to injury. And he is more of a true center with it being his first year in the league so certainly an adjustment for him
I guess it’s possible they still move Swankler as well. But looking at the 2001s, they had to move on from one of those 2 to get some assets and fix their pending OA situation. Appears they picked Swankler to keep
HockeyPops
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The database says Erie has SSM 2022 2nd, and Niagara has ERI 2022 2nd.
SSM sent their second to Erie for Raddysh.
Erie sent their second to Niagara for Sopa.
Not sure what other 2nd they might have.
SSM sent their second to Erie for Raddysh.
Erie sent their second to Niagara for Sopa.
Not sure what other 2nd they might have.
The 2nd they just got from Oshawa for 2022 (technically Kitchener’s pick). They sent their own 2nd round pick for Sopa but retained SSM’s 2nd. Smart thinking too because if SSM goes all in this year, they are likely to have rebuild the following year (2022 draft)
https://thehockeywriters.com/erie-otters-why-hayden-fowler-was-traded/
Points to consider here:
1) The 5th round conditional is based on if Fowler plays OA season. Scheig stated the 5th could become more based on other conditions - which he does not specify
So it sounds like Erie is getting a 5th plus more if he plays as OA. Now does that “more” become a 2nd or 3rd, based on how many games, etc? I don’t know but should make those non- Erie fans, who are out of loop on Fowler issues, backtrack their view of it being a terrible deal by Erie. If that they also get another 2nd or 3rd, and the 5th.. it’s a great deal for Erie..
2) Scheig noted Cohen and Bressette are possibly or expected to give more this year. And I agree.. I’ve said for months that you can’t have both on the 4th line this year or that’s a bad sign for your future (meaning they are not developing). If they are ready for more ice they MUST get it. Sounds like Brown is high on Cohen, which he has been since the day they signed him
Points to consider here:
1) The 5th round conditional is based on if Fowler plays OA season. Scheig stated the 5th could become more based on other conditions - which he does not specify
So it sounds like Erie is getting a 5th plus more if he plays as OA. Now does that “more” become a 2nd or 3rd, based on how many games, etc? I don’t know but should make those non- Erie fans, who are out of loop on Fowler issues, backtrack their view of it being a terrible deal by Erie. If that they also get another 2nd or 3rd, and the 5th.. it’s a great deal for Erie..
2) Scheig noted Cohen and Bressette are possibly or expected to give more this year. And I agree.. I’ve said for months that you can’t have both on the 4th line this year or that’s a bad sign for your future (meaning they are not developing). If they are ready for more ice they MUST get it. Sounds like Brown is high on Cohen, which he has been since the day they signed him
Good find, looks like you are correct. Their draft picks are in good shape from 2022-2024. It would be very helpful if they can deal Henry for a 2021 pick to fill in that draft a little more.
Even better news, Fowler seems like a guy to me who could certainly return for his OA season, unless he really explodes next season then makes the AHL in 21/22.
To your 2nd point, that is an interesting quote from Brown. To me, that only adds to the curiosity of keeping Sellan. If you think BOTH Bressette and Cohen are ready for more ice time, how do you keep him? Saganiuk and Cohen should be the #2/#3 RWs. Bressette can be an everyday guy at 4th line C and perhaps get some looks in the top 9. Sproule/Swankler can fight it out for #2 LW, Khushnutdinov (hopefully) and Lockhart as #1/#2 C.
I agree, I think it’s likely Fowler is OA. Which in that case it sounds as if Erie will add another high pick and still keep the 5th. If he jumps to AHL, they lose the 5th but still got 2 high picks for one year of a guy that up until now has disappointed
Sounds like they are higher on Cohen. He certainly needs more ice if ready. Bressette is only in year 2 and it will be his first full year, so he’s a bit of a different situation (he could be this past year’s Cohen). But we have seen it in the past with guys like Luciani, Cazzola, Hodgman, etc having big year production leaps in second full season (3rd year of eligibility). If Cohen isn’t ready now, he probably never will be.. and if he is ready he may have a chance to become a Mike Cazzola but he needs ice to develop..
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