Well, the offseason is here. A very unfortunate situation but for Otters fans, it certainly could have been worse. Definitely feel bad for fans of contenders. I would have been very upset if this happened during the 2016-17 season.
Looking ahead for the Otters, we've discussed this many times before, but I'm just going to wrap up my thoughts in one big post here until we get more news (personnel changes/what they do at the drafts).
The obvious first step is that Erie needs to move on from Hartsburg, and possibly the entire coaching staff. Their contracts are all up after this season, so this is a good time to make a move. Hartsburg has had 3 seasons here and they have all been pretty poor. He deserves some benefit of the doubt, as the team did not have a lot of talent for him to work with. But there has also been a lack of growth, inconsistent play, and frustrating special teams. Combine that with rumors of players not liking him, it's just time to move on.
Brown has earned enough leeway in my opinion for another 2-3 season contract, but if things don't improve by then, he could go as well. The goodwill from the McDavid/Strome/DeBrincat era is just about gone, they need to figure things out in a hurry.
Player wise, there are some questions. On offense, I see them having 8 guys that are locks right now, assuming they don't lose anyone to professional hockey or someone demanding a trade:
Cohen, Fowler, Swankler, Yetman, Lockhart, Sedore, Golod, Bressette.
The final 5-6 spots come down to a few guys and depend on who they sign.
Khushnutdinov is a must-sign if the team has any intention of contending imo. He would slot right into the top 6.
From the 2018 draft ('02s)
Alexander would be a huge home-run and maybe there's a slim chance since he doesn't enroll at Arizona State until 2021.
Carogiello would be a big get and a surprise as well, but that seems pretty unlikely.
Baldassarra would likely slot right into the middle 6 next season, or at least the 3rd line. He has developed well it seems and doesn't have an NCAA commitment, but he wasn't at camp this past season, so I'm not sure what his plans are.
From the 2019 draft ('03s), they have a few good options.
Saganiuk would obviously be a big get, but he is committed to Penn State. It would be a big blow to waste a 2nd round pick on a guy who doesn't show.
I think they have 4 good options from their mid/late round picks that could comfortable slot in the on 4th line next season or in the #13/#14 area. These guys have all developed fairly well it seems, Erie made some nice picks here, as they always seem to do. These guys could be the next Cohen/Sedore, spend their first season on the 4th line/limited playing time, then hopefully jump into a regular role in the middle 6 or bottom 6 their second season.
2019 7th LW Benjamin White:
Benjamin White at eliteprospects.com
2019 12th F Cole Melady:
Cole Melady at eliteprospects.com
2019 13th F Ryan Forberg:
Ryan Forberg at eliteprospects.com
2019 14th F Frankie Tafalski:
Frank Tafelski at eliteprospects.com
The 2020 1st (8th overall) will likely be a forward given their prior track record. The only dman they've taken in the 1st round in probably the last 10-15 years is Drysdale. Unless someone like that falls to them, I assume they'll go forward.
Then they will need to make a decision regarding their '01s. D'Amato, Hoffmann, Sellan, and Sproule. I would argue they should only keep 1-2 of these guys. Cohen/Sedore/Bressette should see regular playing time in the bottom 6, and they should be bringing in at least one more elite player up front, if not 2.
My very rough projection right now would be:
Golod-Swankler-Yetman
Fowler-Khushnutdinov-Lockhart
D'Amato-Hoffmann-Cohen
Sedore-Bressette-2020 1st
1-2 of the 2019 picks
Question marks: Alexander, Carogiello, Baldassarra, Saganiuk. Khushnutdinov is as well but I'm assuming he signs post draft here.
Traded: MacDougall, Sellan, Sproule
Back to Europe: Sopa
For the defense, it's a bit more clear cut. Assuming they keep Golod & Yetman, this only leaves 1 spot for Duff or Henry. Both are solid players but Duff is the easy choice, being the captain and less prone to poor penalties. They really need to add another top 4 guy though. Morton developed well but I'm not sure he'll be ready for that role, Gillard is a huge question mark, Kischnick is a 3rd pairing guy, and Kyrou should start on the 3rd pair.
For the 2019 picks, Wil Murphy is an easy sign imo. They like these guys that get bigger playing time in Major Midget in their D+1 season. Connor Olson, from the U18 draft, could be a guy to watch. He played in the OJHL and put up decent numbers. Finally, from the 2019 draft, Thomas Lonsdale could be a guy to compete for a 3rd pair spot or the #7/#8.
2019 5th LD Wil Murphy:
Wil Murphy at eliteprospects.com
2019 U18 1st LD Connor Olson:
Connor Olson at eliteprospects.com
2019 9th RD Thomas Lonsdale:
Thomas Lonsdale at eliteprospects.com
My rough projection would be:
Duff-Drsydale
Morton-Import
Gillard?-Kyrou
Murphy
Olson/Lonsdale
Traded: Henry, Kischnick
Goaltending is pretty clear cut. Campbell had a lot of ups and downs in his first season but has huge potential. Unless they make a rule where goalies don't count towards the OA rule, he'll get the starter's job and they'll need to find a reliable backup. Could see some free agent goalie invites. Among their picks, there are 3 possible options:
2019 U18 1st Bryce Walcarius:
Bryce Walcarius at eliteprospects.com
2019 8th Forbes Anderson:
Forbes Anderson at eliteprospects.com
2019 10th Ben West:
Ben West at eliteprospects.com