Draisaitl vs. Matthews

[Sidney the Kidney]

Respecting point number 1, we debated at length last year this with Lightning fans.

The case study to look at for “production doesn’t increase linearly with more ice time” is Kucherov. Analyze his game splits from last season.

Under 22 mins - approx 1.5 ppg (I think it might have been much higher this is off the top of my head without going back)
Over 22 mins - approx 1.0 ppg.

So not only did it not increase linearly with more ice time, it actually decreased when he played heavier minutes.

Never really understood the argument that p/60 would increase at a linear rate with increased ice time. I'd be on board if the person was arguing RAW totals would go up a bit with more ice time (ie. someone producing 80 points in 18 minutes a night probably produces another half dozen or so points if they got 21 minutes a night), but not some linear increase in p/60.

 

[Eat The Rich]

Cause he can't handle it or because he's a defensive liability out there, take your pick.

Because the coach refuses to adapt and is too stubborn to do anything different?

 

[SENSible67]

A few points;

1) Ice time and increased production isn't a linear equation.
2) If you lack the conditioning and ability to play 24 minutes a night like Matthews, you are not going to be effective in those minutes.
3) The age gap between them is inconsequential.
4) Draisaitl's progression curve has been trending upwards each season whereas Matthews' seems to have pleateaued.
5) If Draisaitl peaks as a 50-55 goal, 50-55 assist - 110 point player, it will still be better than Matthews' extreme top end which looks to be projecting towards a 55g 45a player in a lucky career year.

1. do you think they get more ice time with the assumption they wont score more? the law of averages dictates if you are on the ice an extra couple hours a year you will get the odd lucky point regardless of linear production. It's a disingenuous argument.
2. are you sure Matthews plays his minutes due to conditioning or due to team concept and depth? sounds like a biased guess.
3. Age gap implies one is more likely a finished product than the other regardless of development rate. Another disingenuous argument. I'm sure you see a difference between your guys and older guys
4. false statement, Matthews point per game has gone up every year.
5. I do not love the Leafs by any stretch but that is ludicrous. Show me your source for Matthews extreme top end.
That's weak man. Anyway I'm done defending Matthews, it's not my job. I picked and used sound reasons. Deal with it.

 

[SENSible67]

because Matthews plays with scrubs? lol

Draisaitl does it all...scores goals, gets assists
and no, Drai hasn't peaked lmao

McDavid scores about twice as much as Nylander in case you thought they were the same guy.

 

[Skolman]

McDavid scores about twice as much as Nylander in case you thought they were the same guy.

Do you realize that teams gameplan literally revolves around McDavid and Drai? That's it. You shut them down, the Oilers lose.

The Leafs have numerous guys that can burn you, which opens things up for Matthews.

It's just amazing how you instantly know on these boards who doesn't watch the Oilers play much, just by their posts.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

McDavid scores about twice as much as Nylander in case you thought they were the same guy.

It's kind of interesting how the narrative on Nylander's projected upside/production is changing.

 

[Fourier]

1. do you think they get more ice time with the assumption they wont score more? the law of averages dictates if you are on the ice an extra couple hours a year you will get the odd lucky point regardless of linear production. It's a disingenuous argument.
2. are you sure Matthews plays his minutes due to conditioning or due to team concept and depth? sounds like a biased guess.
3. Age gap implies one is more likely a finished product than the other regardless of development rate. Another disingenuous argument. I'm sure you see a difference between your guys and older guys
4. false statement, Matthews point per game has gone up every year.
5. I do not love the Leafs by any stretch but that is ludicrous. Show me your source for Matthews extreme top end.
That's weak man. Anyway I'm done defending Matthews, it's not my job. I picked and used sound reasons. Deal with it.

It's not a disingenuous argument if the comparison is being made on a /60 basis. One can argue that the more you play the more points you get. But what is not valid is to ignore the fact that pts/60 decreases at some point. If you don't believe this ask yourself what the impact would be on a player's pts/60 if he was asked to play 60 minutes.

When the decrease starts is probably player dependent. Gretzky for example had ridiculous stamina and would often be most dangerous at the end of a shift. But this is not the case for almost any player. In the case of Matthews and Draisiatl over the last two years the difference in their TOI has been primarily a function of Draisaitl taking slightly longer shifts. Draisaitl has averaged 24.2 shifts per game vs 23.8 per game for Matthews. If you exclude short handed shifts then Matthews has more shifts at ES or on the PP which tend to be easier minutes. So it probably makes more sense to use pts/gm to compare the players than it does pts/60.

 

[booyakasha]

 

[Oil Dood]

That's not a conditioning issue.. That's a Mike Babcock issue. He won't give him the ice time that Draisaitl gets.

Because Mathews is not responsible enough for more ice time.

 

[McFlyingV]

It's kind of interesting how the narrative on Nylander's projected upside/production is changing.

In any Matthews thread Nylander is basically the equivalent of a cap dump that would require a 1st round pick and blue chip prospect to unload. In any Nylander trade thread he's worth a top pairing D man because he's a #1C who just hasn't had the chance to play centre in the NHL. HF main boards for you.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

In any Matthews thread Nylander is basically the equivalent of a cap dump that would require a 1st round pick and blue chip prospect to unload. In any Nylander trade thread he's worth a top pairing D man because he's a #1C who just hasn't had the chance to play centre in the NHL. HF main boards for you.

Is it possible that leafs fans aren't actually a hivemind and it's just a case of different people having different opinions?

 

[McFlyingV]

Is it possible that leafs fans aren't actually a hivemind and it's just a case of different people having different opinions?

Of course, which is why I singled out the main boards rather than Leafs fans as a whole. We see embarrassing posts and threads on here daily.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Of course, which is why I singled out the main boards rather than Leafs fans as a whole. We see embarrassing posts and threads on here daily.

That's fair then. Nylander is an extremely polarizing player among leafs fans to say the least

 

[McFlyingV]

That's fair then. Nylander is an extremely polarizing player among leafs fans to say the least

As he should be. He is obviously very skilled and flashes it, but is also highly inconsistent and goes through lulls where he seems to lack compete.

 

[Eat The Rich]

Because Mathews is not responsible enough for more ice time.

Yes, I'm sure that's the reason.

Your ignorance is showing.

 

[VainGretzky]

Could easily go either way ,I voted Drai just because OT and better linemate

 

[Dekes For Days]

We see embarrassing posts and threads on here daily.

Yeah, we do see embarrassing posts. Embarrassing posts that are detached from reality like this:

In any Matthews thread Nylander is basically the equivalent of a cap dump that would require a 1st round pick and blue chip prospect to unload. In any Nylander trade thread he's worth a top pairing D man because he's a #1C who just hasn't had the chance to play centre in the NHL.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I remember the discussion around that. I think most players, McDavid included, produce at a higher rate at or under that 22 min mark than they do above it. At some point, for most players, the increased ice time leads to diminishing returns.

For like the 25,000th time, you are measuring score effects, not the effect of ice time on production.

 

[ijuka]

That's not a conditioning issue.. That's a Mike Babcock issue. He won't give him the ice time that Draisaitl gets.

Are you sure?

What if Matthews wouldn't make use of that ice time so well? What if his play actually suffers due to it?

 

[Dekes For Days]

What if Matthews wouldn't make use of that ice time so well? What if his play actually suffers due to it?

There is absolutely zero evidence that this would happen.

People got it into their heads that playing a lot of minutes is something special and unique when it's not and there has never been evidence that it is. They claim nobody except the players that already do it can do it. Then when one gets the opportunity and does just as well as everybody else playing those minutes, suddenly that player is part of the group that can, but that was just the 5000th fluke in a row and most players can't do that because... because... reasons...

Draisaitl plays a lot because Edmonton is desperate. Not because he has some special unique stamina.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's kind of interesting how the narrative on Nylander's projected upside/production is changing.

Since when was Nylander's projected upside/production thought to be equal to the best player in the game in his prime?

 

[Menzinger]

Are you sure?

What if Matthews wouldn't make use of that ice time so well? What if his play actually suffers due to it?

You think hed forget how to score goals over this extra couple minutes?

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Since when was Nylander's projected upside/production thought to be equal to the best player in the game in his prime?

He wasn't. But he's also talked about now as though he's an average top six player and Matthews has no one with elite skill to play with.

Which is strange since in most "value of Nylander" or "how good is Nylander" threads, he's considered to have point per game upside with a good chance of hitting 70 points with Matthews. It's only in Matthews' threads where Nylander's value suddenly plummets to on par with your Kapanens, Hymans, etc. of the world.

 

[Dekes For Days]

He wasn't. But he's also talked about now as though he's an average top six player and Matthews has no one with elite skill to play with.

Which is strange since in most "value of Nylander" or "how good is Nylander" threads, he's considered to have point per game upside with a good chance of hitting 70 points with Matthews. It's only in Matthews' threads where Nylander's value suddenly plummets to on par with your Kapanens, Hymans, etc. of the world.

Who has put Nylander's value to be on par with Kapanen or Hyman?

Nylander is a highly skilled player, and is very young and full of potential. This means that his value is high, and he won't be traded except for a substantial package that helps the team. At the same time, he has not fully realized this potential, and had played with Matthews in his rookie and sophomore years. This means that his contribution to the production of Matthews is not yet at the maxed out potential. Even at closer to maxed out potential, Nylander is a lesser quality of player than the players that many of Matthews' peers have next to them.

It's not that difficult to understand.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Who has put Nylander's value to be on par with Kapanen or Hyman?

Nylander is a highly skilled player, and is very young and full of potential. This means that his value is high, and he won't be traded except for a substantial package that helps the team. At the same time, he has not fully realized this potential, and had played with Matthews in his rookie and sophomore years. This means that his contribution to the production of Matthews is not yet at the maxed out potential. Even at closer to maxed out potential, Nylander is a lesser quality of player than the players that many of Matthews' peers have next to them.

It's not that difficult to understand.

I love how “Matthews doesn’t have good enough teammates” is now a thing after years of hearing about how good Nylander is and how Hyman is an elite two way player and Marner is the best winger in the league and Kapanen is a legit first line forward and Rielly deserved the Norris and Barrie is the best OFD in the league and Muzzin is better than any defenceman on the Oilers and Andersen deserved the Vezina and Matthews carries this team and elevates his linemates but they also suck but is also surrounded by talent. I swear Matthews plays with Schroedinger’s linemates, who are at the same time elite and terrible.

Matthews is a poor passer. If you’re wondering why his linemates don’t put up better numbers, it’s because he plays more like a shoot first ask questions second winger than an elite 1C. Get puck. Shoot puck. Get puck again. Shoot puck again. Watching him play there doesn’t seem to be much thought about puck distribution.