Draisaitl vs. Matthews

[BertMcDrai]

Feel free to post 5v5 stats. I have many times and it still paints an ugly picture.

Okay I have watched Even Strength (while both on/off the ice)...and BÄM...Leon was slightly better without McD than McD without Leon...that means according your logic McD is trash...good lord...thats crazy.

Drai 1,88P/60 without McD
McD 1,87P/60 without Leon

 

[McNuge]

You have made some good points here, but even still, 6 of his goals have come with McDavid on the ice.

Plays on the same pp as McDavid... Has 6 pp goals... Ground breaking analysis bud

 

[snipes]

Changed my vote to Draisaitl.

Atta boy.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Feel free to post 5v5 stats. I have many times and it still paints an ugly picture.

I agree, ugly picture indeed. Matthews had one of the worst 5v5 GA60 stats last year for fwds. And this was on a playoff team. Imagine if he was playing on a tire fire like the Oilers were last year.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[joe dirte]

I think we're starting to see that this thread is full of people jumping the gun on a hot start....

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I think we're starting to see that this thread is full of people jumping the gun on a hot start....

Agreed. Draisaitl was great last year and is even better this year.
Can’t see this hot start lasting.

 

[Oilers Propagandist]

I agree, ugly picture indeed. Matthews had one of the worst 5v5 GA60 stats last year for fwds. And this was on a playoff team. Imagine if he was playing on a tire fire like the Oilers were last year.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

You’re really good at what you do mate. Keep on keepin on.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Matthews if he remains healthy.

 

[explore]

The McDavid factor is hard to ignore, but so is Matthews natural goal-scoring ability.

I think AM will score more goals if he plays the entire season, otherwise it's Draisaitl.

 

[Vide]

Matthews will probably score more goals, but Draisaitl is the better player.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Drasaitl another 2 goals last night. Up to 12 on the year to co lead the NHL in goals tied with Pastrnak. He does it all. What a player.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Matthews had one of the worst 5v5 GA60 stats last year for fwds.

5v5 GA/60 (16/17-18/19):

Matthews: 2.60
Draisaitl: 3.03

But yeah, cherry pick his one outlier year where he played with two rookies. Put him right around noted horrible defensive players McDavid, Couture, Connor, Eichel, Couturier, Draisaitl, Barkov... I mean, not everybody can be the best defensive player ever, David Backes, right?

Maybe we could look at the year before, where he was significantly better than Kopitar, Toews, Couturier, Barkov, etc.

Or maybe 5v5 GA/60 (especially in one isolated season) doesn't tell the whole story about defensive ability...

 

[SENSible67]

Surprising result. Draisaitl plays like 5 minutes more a game, gets McDavid and scores at a lower per 60 rate (I think). If you are asking who will score more probably Draisaitl this year, but Matthews is probably better. I think about the age gap and I don't think this stays a debate much longer. Draisaitl has probably peaked. Moustache boy probably hasn't.

 

[ABCisfinewithme]

You are correct. He just turned 24 2 days ago. His career is on the downward spiral now.....lol

 

[Chef de Cuisine]

this is Draisaitl

 

[Skolman]

A lot of non-Oilers fans know Leon for his point producing ability, but damn you should have have seen him kill off that 5 on 3 last night. What a monster.

 

[Soliloquy of a Dogge]

Surprising result. Draisaitl plays like 5 minutes more a game, gets McDavid and scores at a lower per 60 rate (I think). If you are asking who will score more probably Draisaitl this year, but Matthews is probably better. I think about the age gap and I don't think this stays a debate much longer. Draisaitl has probably peaked. Moustache boy probably hasn't.

A few points;

1) Ice time and increased production isn't a linear equation.
2) If you lack the conditioning and ability to play 24 minutes a night like Matthews, you are not going to be effective in those minutes.
3) The age gap between them is inconsequential.
4) Draisaitl's progression curve has been trending upwards each season whereas Matthews' seems to have pleateaued.
5) If Draisaitl peaks as a 50-55 goal, 50-55 assist - 110 point player, it will still be better than Matthews' extreme top end which looks to be projecting towards a 55g 45a player in a lucky career year.

 

[snipes]

A few points;

1) Ice time and increased production isn't a linear equation.
2) If you lack the conditioning and ability to play 24 minutes a night like Matthews, you are not going to be effective in those minutes.
3) The age gap between them is inconsequential.
4) Draisaitl's progression curve has been trending upwards each season whereas Matthews' seems to have pleateaued.
5) If Draisaitl peaks as a 50-55 goal, 50-55 assist - 110 point player, it will still be better than Matthews' extreme top end which looks to be projecting towards a 55g 45a player in a lucky career year.

Respecting point number 1, we debated at length last year this with Lightning fans.

The case study to look at for “production doesn’t increase linearly with more ice time” is Kucherov. Analyze his game splits from last season.

Under 22 mins - approx 1.5 ppg (I think it might have been much higher this is off the top of my head without going back)
Over 22 mins - approx 1.0 ppg.

So not only did it not increase linearly with more ice time, it actually decreased when he played heavier minutes.

 

[Eat The Rich]

A few points;

1) Ice time and increased production isn't a linear equation.
2) If you lack the conditioning and ability to play 24 minutes a night like Matthews, you are not going to be effective in those minutes.
3) The age gap between them is inconsequential.
4) Draisaitl's progression curve has been trending upwards each season whereas Matthews' seems to have pleateaued.
5) If Draisaitl peaks as a 50-55 goal, 50-55 assist - 110 point player, it will still be better than Matthews' extreme top end which looks to be projecting towards a 55g 45a player in a lucky career year.

That's not a conditioning issue.. That's a Mike Babcock issue. He won't give him the ice time that Draisaitl gets.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Surprising result. Draisaitl plays like 5 minutes more a game, gets McDavid and scores at a lower per 60 rate (I think). If you are asking who will score more probably Draisaitl this year, but Matthews is probably better. I think about the age gap and I don't think this stays a debate much longer. Draisaitl has probably peaked. Moustache boy probably hasn't.

because Matthews plays with scrubs? lol

Draisaitl does it all...scores goals, gets assists
and no, Drai hasn't peaked lmao

 

[Sky04]

That's not a conditioning issue.. That's a Mike Babcock issue. He won't give him the ice time that Draisaitl gets.

Cause he can't handle it or because he's a defensive liability out there, take your pick.

 

[Soliloquy of a Dogge]

Respecting point number 1, we debated at length last year this with Lightning fans.

The case study to look at for “production doesn’t increase linearly with more ice time” is Kucherov. Analyze his game splits from last season.

Under 22 mins - approx 1.5 ppg (I think it might have been much higher this is off the top of my head without going back)
Over 22 mins - approx 1.0 ppg.

So not only did it not increase linearly with more ice time, it actually decreased when he played heavier minutes.

I remember the discussion around that. I think most players, McDavid included, produce at a higher rate at or under that 22 min mark than they do above it. At some point, for most players, the increased ice time leads to diminishing returns.

McDavid has perhaps the best conditioning and recharge rate I've ever seen in an NHL player and has a unique ability to be able to play those minutes effectively however. Expecting Matthews to be able to do the same isn't realistic. And Draisaitl is on the penalty kill 2-4 minutes every night as well; something Matthews, by his own accord, doesn't have any interest in doing.

 

[Soliloquy of a Dogge]

That's not a conditioning issue.. That's a Mike Babcock issue. He won't give him the ice time that Draisaitl gets.

He's getting right around 20 mins a night which seems to be a sweet spot for him in terms of productivity, nothing wrong with that.

If he played on the PK he'd probably be around 22 minutes a night but he doesn't.

 

[SA16]

Cause he can't handle it or because he's a defensive liability out there, take your pick.

Uh, no. Because Babcock believes more in rolling the lines than going with a top heavy approach. It's the same for Marner and Tavares. They don't play McDavid/MacKinnon/Schiefele level minutes because he doesn't want them to.

 

[Aceboogie]

Alright, this polls been fun. But time for it to be closed