Proposal: Cory Schneider to WPG

[Zippy316]

Schneider for Connor I'd probably do. We'd have a tending duo like the Canucks had in their heyday where you have a great guy in every night.

Paying what Schneider is worth doesn't make sense though.

Devils cannot trade Schneider without an immediate or close to immediate successor.

Our best goaltending prospect is Blackwood who is only 19 and development of goaltenders are wildly unpredictable.

 

[Maukkis]

Devils cannot trade Schneider without an immediate or close to immediate successor.

Our best goaltending prospect is Blackwood who is only 19 and development of goaltenders are wildly unpredictable.

Hellebuyck would have to go back in any deal, but what sense does that make for you. Pretty much none, as we all know.

Can we just put this to rest? Neither side wants to do it, no need to flame each other.

 

[ijuka]

Why would Jets say no to this? It's an easy yes IMO. Schneider is perhaps the best goalie in the world, top 2 for sure. Most teams wouldn't have someone like him. You have to be very optimistic if you think that Hellebyuck can become close to that good. Connor on the other hand is replaceable.

As for Devils, they say no.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

This is an easy yes for the Jets of course, assuming the pick isn't a lottery pick or something.

 

[oilerbear]

For the best, maybe second best goalie in the league, um ya do it.

There are 30 shots in a game.


there are a league avaerge 10.5 High scoring chance shots in a game
below .915 Save% shots that go in 8.5 to 33% of the time.
75% of the goals come from these shots.
and
19.5 Low scoring chance shots.
above .915 save% shots. go in 0- 8.5% off the time.
25% of goals come from these shots.

so you kind of want the best HSCA golaies in the Game.

HSCA Save % goalies last 3 years.
minimum 15000 HSC attempts.
1. Price .889
----------------------- tier 1
2. Talbot ; Griess .886
4. Holtby .885
----------------------- tier 2
5. Halak .882
6. Jones .881
7. Elliot; Allen .880
----------------------- Tier 3
9. Crawford .878
10. Lundquist .877
----------------------- tier 4
11. Schnieder; Bernier .874
13. Mrazek .873
----------------------- tier 5
14. Quick; Fleury; Rask; Neauvirth .871
18. Lack; Gibson; Varlamov .870
----------------------- tier 6
21. Bishop; Miller .867
23. Lehtonen .866
----------------------- tier 7
24. F. Andersson .862
a first and a second and 5M; then trade #11 BErnier for a 5th; Oh my!

25. Mason .861
26. Reimer .860
27. Dubnyk; Pavalec; Bobrovsky .859
----------------------- tier 8

from average 10.5 Shots:
Price
10.5 X (1.000 - .889) = 1.17 GA/60

Talbot
10.5 X (1.000 - .886) = 1.20 GA/60

Schnieder; Bernier:
10.5 X (1.000 - .874) = 1.32 GA/60

Pavalec:
10.5 x (1.000 - .859) = 1.48 GA/60

the difference between the #1 starting Goalie.
and bottom starting golaies is

1.48 - 1.17 = .31 GA/60; .31/ 1.48 = 20.9%

So top end goalies is important.
but the most important to GA?

Many who have read me know I am the origionator of HSCA theory.
the correlation of front net penetration by the Flin flon bombers of Clarke leavch; and Stoughton and Shot effrectivness.
struck me in early 2003.

but was not until the post 05-06 season and Desajardins intro of behind the net.
did it strike me how important distance from net was to success.

THE difference from the best in the game 7.5 HSC Shots/60 and
and
the worst 13.5 HSCA shots/60 was 6/13.5 = 44.4%
a variance of 44.4% for 75% of the goals.

if you take
the best HSCA D and the bottom goalies save% 1.000 - .859 = .141
7.5 X (.141) = 1.06 GA/60
then the worst GA D and best Golaie (1.000 - .889 = .111
13.50 X .111 = 1.50 GA/60
it is not even close.


A dman giving up 1.25 HSC shots less than league average every 60 minutes of play with the worst starting golaies.
9.25 X .141 = 1.30

A damn giving up 1.25 HSC shots more than league average every 60 minutes of play with worst starting goalies.
10.75 X .111 = 1.30

which leads to the 23 minutes of hockey:
Subban - Weber:

Subban bottom 60 HSCA D
12.8 HSC SH/60
12.82 X .111 = 1.42 EVGA/60

Weber #2 HSCA D.
7.30 X = .81 EVGA/60
that is .61 less EVGA

Lots of people on here value Dman offence.
of the top 300 EVG scorers 273 are forwards who score 93.8% of those goals.
Forwards are 3.8 times more successful at generating Evne goals.

PK subban generates the 10th best EVp/60 rate by dmen in the league
1.10 EVp/60
357 Players forwards/Dmen generate 1.10 EVP/60 +

346 of them are forwards. that is almost all 12 forwards for each team.
subban generates even offence at the same rate as a bottom 4th line forward.

take the top 10 EVP/60 D last 3 years.
look at how many Forwards can generate there rate
Burns 1.51
--------------- 199 forwards; #7 forward rate
Hedman 1.36
Karlsson 1.35
--------------- 256 forwards; #9 forward rate
Klinberg 1.23
--------------- 300 forwards; #10/11 forward rate
Byfuglien 1.18
gostibere 1.17
Giordano 1.16
--------------- 315 forwards; #11 forward rate
Barrie 1.15
Parayko 1.14
Subban 1.10
--------------- 346 forwards; #12 forward rate

SO
When you want offence or a goal scored.
who do you give the puck too?
and how fast?

cup winners have
1. HSCA d system coach
2. top 10 HSCA save% goalie
3. 3+ top 60 HSCA D.
4. 2 #1 (top 90) or 3 (top 150) evg/EVP lines
5. +ve Goal diff from PP/PK

Schnieder #2?
sorry he has one heck of a HSCA system in front of him.
with a whole collection of top 60 Dmen.
What NJ needs is offence.

That is why they gave u the best HSCA; EVGA; PKGA d in the game the last 2 years for Hall.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Kyle Connor plus a pick for Schneider?

Laine

And I ain't joking

 

[ManofSteel55]

We had a need and it's strongly believed to be fixed already. We have Hutch (bit of a long shot), Helle (blue chip prospect who already played a limited number of games and looked very good), Comry (good prospect) and one more decent goalie prospect.

So goaltending is far from a big need for us to address anymore then we have already.

We have other bigger issues to address, goalies are far down the list. No interest in paying a pretty price for a 30 year old goalie we don't need

I don't think the goalie need is fixed until Hellebuyck has proven he can be the starter. Jets management seems to think he is there, or almost there, so I can see why they wouldn't feel the need to make a move.

 

[Jumptheshark]

This is an easy yes for the Jets of course, assuming the pick isn't a lottery pick or something.

Even if it wad Connor and the first ovetall the jets say yes. Schneider is one of the best goalies in the world

 

[Zippy316]

Laine

And I ain't joking

That's ridiculous.

Connor + Hellebuyck is more than fair value and depending on how the Devils view their future, could make them pull the trigger.

It's doubtful though because trading Schneider after acquiring guys like Hall just sends mixed messages. Devils are looking to build the team to compete as quick as possible under Schneider without sacrificing the future.

 

[MikeRahl]

It makes me cringe when fans of struggling / mediocre teams don't want to part with their prospects for solid established NHL players that solve a glaring need for their team.

Cory Schneider is a top-10 goalie in the league, maybe top-5.

Jets fans = no thanks! we'll just roll the dice with Connor and hope Hellebuyck pans out!

I'm not sure if the Jets would classify as 'struggling' or 'mediocre', they are a rebuilding (rebuilt) team on the upswing.

Schneider might be one of the best goalies in the league, but having a top goalie hasn't got the Devils to the playoffs yet.

The roster as constructed probably won't get to the playoffs this year, and I don't think Schneider would be the tipping point there. I think if they were to deal Connor, they would be looking for D-Help.

At this point you stick with the process, and when glaring holes start opening up, then you can start dealing.

 

[crowi]

Devils would never trade Schneider. They would be foolish to do so as well..

 

[Rebuilt]

What about getting an elite goalie and winning playoffs rounds?

nope.

you aren't going to like what the price would be to get the Devils to think about trading Schneider.

not worth going through this.

And you arent goin to like what you would really get for the guy now that he is north of 30 just like in all the other threads where you play Schenider apologist. No playoffs, no vezina nomination..............ever.

 

[AWSAA]

The Devils won't contend during Schneider's prime with that defense, group of centers. They might have two of McDavid/Eichel, Matthews/Laine right now if it wasn't for him.

 

[AfroThunder396]

And you arent goin to like what you would really get for the guy now that he is north of 30 just like in all the other threads where you play Schenider apologist. No playoffs, no vezina nomination..............ever.

We don't want to trade him to begin with, so we really don't care what you think his value is. Your offer would have to be stupid to make us even consider it.

 

[Hunter368]

This thread is now in the pure comedy range. Jets aren't giving up blue chip prospect or two or blue chip plus a 1st for Cory. Devils aren't trading Cory and if someone wanted to trade for Cory it would be a win now mode team who's window to win is in the next 2-3 years max........this is not the very young Jets team.

/thread

 

[MadDevil]

Schneider's value to the Devils is higher than the likely return would be for him, so it would require an overpayment to even consider trading him.

From Winnipeg's perspective they could have a decade of Connor or 3-4 years of a prime Schneider. If they think they're realistically ready to win in the next few years, maybe it's worth it.

But, as I mentioned above, Connor alone likely doesn't get Shero to bite, and I doubt Winnipeg wants to offer what it would take to get him to bite, so there's not really a trade to be had here.

 

[Pongs21]

The cost to obtain Schneider is just not worth the assests winnipeg would have to give up at this time. The Jets need to see first what they have in Helleybuyck before it can be determined that a change needs to take place. I highly doubt Schneider is even remotely available anyways. Regardless of his availability it, either way it just makes no sense from the Jets perspective right now. Also Fleury or Bishop are also elite level goalies that would be easier and cheaper to aquire due to the upcoming expansion draft..

 

[goonybird]

these are the types of posts that I absolutely love. 4+ years?! Do you understand how much things change over the course of ~4 years in sports?

4 years ago the devil's were in the cup finals with kovalchuk + parise

Donger

 

[quat]

Timing is an important part of why we aren't interested. We have our (hopefully) young goalie in Hellebuyck. We have a young roster, why should we toss out a blue chip in Connor just for a 30 year old albeit elite goalie. The only reason we should do that is if we think he's the missing piece and our window is now. Which I don't think it is. It just doesn't make a ton of sense.

I'll admit I might have a rosier view of the Jets than their fans, but to me they seem just a top five goalie away from playing for a cup or two. Schnieder will be solid in net for another 5 years, and immediately the Jets would be a threat.

It could take Hellebuyck a couple of years to achieve below where Cory is now (it could happen sooner, but generally speaking it does take time and experience for players to hit their stride in the league), and a lot of the players the Jets have now are just hitting their stride.

As an outsider, this is one trade that seems to make sense for the Jets. To me, the Devils seem further out from contending, and waiting a few more years for a solid goalie prospect to improve allows them time to develop more younger players ... so trading Schnieder doesn't seem impossible to consider.

I doubt a trade like this happens, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out for both teams.

Interesting proposal.

 

[quat]

You guys are just too young of a team haha. Not used to the crushing disappointed that the vast majority of goalie prospects brings.

Or maybe I'm cynical from being a Flames fan.

Those prospects would be gone so fast I wouldn't have time to blink haha. You're whole team is based on developing a #1 goalie, terrifying thought for me.

Agreed. Watching a solid team fail miserably due to the lack of goaltending has completely changed my attitude as a Canucks fan. I do understand fans not wanting to trade value they think is only going to improve, but fact is, there is a better chance their goalie prospects don't succeed as hoped and then there's nothing you can do to get that time back.

The Jets look so good everywhere but in net (now ... not their future), and I'd rather gamble on a sure thing than a possible future. You know Schnieder would easily backstop a solid team to a Cup final. If it only costs you two guys not on your roster, when you're super deep in prospects ... yep, I'd make that trade.

 

[quat]

The cost to obtain Schneider is just not worth the assests winnipeg would have to give up at this time. The Jets need to see first what they have in Helleybuyck before it can be determined that a change needs to take place. I highly doubt Schneider is even remotely available anyways. Regardless of his availability it, either way it just makes no sense from the Jets perspective right now. Also Fleury or Bishop are also elite level goalies that would be easier and cheaper to aquire due to the upcoming expansion draft..

Both fleury and Bishop are risks imo, at least compared with Schnieder. Fleury has complete moments of failure and Bishop is just too injury prone. Obviously both are candidates, but both will have huge cap hits.

Winnipeg have some interesting choices to make, and such great prospect depth to work with. I can't believe they got to draft second overall with that roster. Frankly, it boggles the mind.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Jets pass. Why? Because they are building to the future and they have hellebuyck. Bottom line... big fan of Schneider but as a Jets fan who gets and sees what the Jets are doing in terms of draft and development.... I have to pass.

Love the guy since his Moose days but certainly not giving up Connor or whatever other fantasy land players people think it would take to get him.

 

[glenbuis]

Do I really have to explain why the Jets should not make this trade? Does it not go without saying?

yeah i think you better explain it please. sorry if you already did

 

[He]

Man, Winnipeg would be an instant playoff team if they picked up Schneider. The guy is just lights out, one of my favourite former Canucks.

 

[Regal]

I'm not sure if the Jets would classify as 'struggling' or 'mediocre', they are a rebuilding (rebuilt) team on the upswing.

Schneider might be one of the best goalies in the league, but having a top goalie hasn't got the Devils to the playoffs yet.

The roster as constructed probably won't get to the playoffs this year, and I don't think Schneider would be the tipping point there. I think if they were to deal Connor, they would be looking for D-Help.

At this point you stick with the process, and when glaring holes start opening up, then you can start dealing.

Sometimes a "rebuilt" team on the upswing needs to make a move that solidifys them though. The team is an interesting mix of young pieces (Schiefele, Ehlers, Laine, Trouba) and 28-30 year Olds (Wheeler, Little, Byfuglien, Enstrom). If the young guys can pan out, the best chance to win is probably before a couple of them get paid and before the older guys start regressing, so in the next 3-5 years. Getting Schneider to fit in that older group could fit right into the time line. And once the old guys start to fade, the young guys would still be a nice core to keep building around.