Player Discussion: Connor Hellebuyck

[Whileee]

Confirms observations by some here that our early success is greatly influenced by exceptional goaltending.

This is most likely to revert somewhat over time.

Well, there are always a few teams with top-end goaltending. Why not the Jets?

Also, just to remind everyone that there so far this season there has been almost no correlation between expected goal metrics (5v5 xGF%) and results (points %).

Here is the scatter plot for games up until last night, from Natural Stat Trick:

Take the outlier (Detroit) out, and there is a weak inverse relationship between xGF% and points %.

5v5 xGF% is predictive of future shot metrics, but it's not nearly as predictive of future standings within the same season. There is generally very little correlation between 5v5 xGF% in the first 30 games and team points at the end of the season. So it's not as though the Jets are defying all norms at this point, nor does their unimpressive xGF% necessarily portend future failure. That doesn't mean they won't tank (their D is still remarkably thin on talent), but it also suggests that their performance might be sustainable.

 

[Ducky10]

I'm more than happy to be wrong for once. I absolutely disliked Helle the past few years and he has been outstanding this year.
The "pure gold" would have been if he played like this in the playoffs the last two years and we'd have a cup. I don't know why you think it's funny he was mediocre in two consecutive playoffs, and some people were down on him for the numerous soft goals he let in. People had every right to lose faith in him.

Yeah, Helle is the reason we don’t have a cup....

You would have traded him last year, lol.

 

[Romang67]

I'm more than happy to be wrong for once. I absolutely disliked Helle the past few years and he has been outstanding this year.
The "pure gold" would have been if he played like this in the playoffs the last two years and we'd have a cup. I don't know why you think it's funny he was mediocre in two consecutive playoffs, and some people were down on him for the numerous soft goals he let in. People had every right to lose faith in him.

He was third in save percentage among goalies who played more than 4 games when we reached the WCF. So you're as wrong about that as you were about your "down the stretch" comment.

 

[Jets4Life]

My mistake on the part about down the stretch. Despite the numbers he let in numerous soft goals. Binnington stole games, Helle didn't, that was the difference.

If I recall down the stretch two years ago and the playoffs he was mediocre. He was 'okay' but definitely didn't steal any games. This year he is easily stealing games for us. If you want to win the cup you need a goalie to steal the odd game for you, ala Binnington last year.

Hellebuyck was a Vezina caliber goalie in the 2017-18 season. This season, he is arguably the front-runner for the Vezina Trophy. You can say he let in"soft goals" all you want. Statistics do not lie.

Binnington was not the difference in the Jets-Blues series last year.

 

[kylbaz]

Hellebuyck was a Vezina caliber goalie in the 2017-18 season. This season, he is arguably the front-runner for the Vezina Trophy. You can say he let in"soft goals" all you want. Statistics do not lie.

Binnington was not the difference in the Jets-Blues series last year.

Im talking playoffs.

 

[kylbaz]

Yeah, Helle is the reason we don’t have a cup....

You would have traded him last year, lol.

Traded him? What? Cool post bro.

 

[kylbaz]

Does that make Helly a bad goalie would he have needed to steal games if everyone else did their jobs??

Fair point. But to win a cup you need to steal the odd game. Just like binnington did.

Helle let in soft goals, period. Pretend all you want now that hes playing good but he did. This board went from a couple people not really liking him to a large number and it wasnt without reason. Those that stood behind him props to you but if you wanted to rub it in everyone's face you can expect it back if he slides.

Like I said im more than happy to be wrong about Helle. If he plays like this in the playoffs look out.

 

[Jets4Life]

Im talking playoffs.

So am I.

 

[kylbaz]

So am I.

You dont win the vezina for the playoffs which the majority of your post talks about.

 

[Jets4Life]

Like I said im more than happy to be wrong about Helle. If he plays like this in the playoffs look out.

Like he did during the 2017-18 playoffs?

 

[kylbaz]

Like he did during the 2017-18 playoffs?

No. We lost fyi

 

[Romang67]

No. We lost fyi

You didn't respond to my post where I pointed out that Hellebuyck was third in save percentage among goalies who played more than 4 games in the 2018 playoffs. I'm sure you have a good explanation for why that was a "mediocre" performance.

For reference, mediocre, according to Merriam-Webster, means of low to moderate quality, which his performance decidedly wasn't.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Fair point. But to win a cup you need to steal the odd game. Just like binnington did.

Helle let in soft goals, period. Pretend all you want now that hes playing good but he did. This board went from a couple people not really liking him to a large number and it wasnt without reason. Those that stood behind him props to you but if you wanted to rub it in everyone's face you can expect it back if he slides.

Like I said im more than happy to be wrong about Helle. If he plays like this in the playoffs look out.

No. I agree he did let in some soft goals my argument was that expecting a goalie to steal games when the forwards were useless last year is a little unfair.

 

[kylbaz]

You didn't respond to my post where I pointed out that Hellebuyck was third in save percentage among goalies who played more than 4 games in the 2018 playoffs. I'm sure you have a good explanation for why that was a "mediocre" performance.

For reference, mediocre, according to Merriam-Webster, means of low to moderate quality, which his performance decidedly wasn't.

He did start the playoffs pretty well. Tell me his numbers against Vegas please.

Tell me his numbers and where he ranked last year, the most recent playoffs.

Thank you.

 

[Romang67]

He did start the playoffs pretty well. Tell me his numbers against Vegas please.

Tell me his numbers and where he ranked last year, the most recent playoffs.

Thank you.

Good attempt to move the goalposts. You said he was mediocre in two consecutive playoffs, which as I pointed out, meant you think he was mediocre despite having the third highest save percentage of any goalie who played more than 4 games.

So are you saying that a goalie with one bad series had a mediocre playoffs? So in other words, you think Fleury had a mediocre playoffs in 2018?

Just admit that you're as laughably incorrect about this as your "down the stretch" comment

 

[kylbaz]

Good attempt to move the goalposts. You said he was mediocre in two consecutive playoffs, which as I pointed out, meant you think he was mediocre despite having the third highest save percentage of any goalie who played more than 4 games.

So are you saying that a goalie with one bad series had a mediocre playoffs? So in other words, you think Fleury had a mediocre playoffs in 2018?

Just admit that you're as laughably incorrect about this as your "down the stretch" comment

I admitted I was wrong down the stretch im sorry it was two years ago. As much as you want to hang on his stats from two years ago I couldnt remember. What I do know is if he wasnt mediocre vs vegas we could have possibly had a cup. And if he wasnt mediocre last playoffs we could have had a cup.

Why didnt you post his vegas stats or last years playoff stats? Weird. Lol lol

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Tonight's stats: SV% .500 GAA ~60.00

 

[lakai17]

Tonight's stats: SV% .500 GAA ~60.00

What happened? I missed it.

 

[Romang67]

I admitted I was wrong down the stretch im sorry it was two years ago. As much as you want to hang on his stats from two years ago I couldnt remember. What I do know is if he wasnt mediocre vs vegas we could have possibly had a cup. And if he wasnt mediocre last playoffs we could have had a cup.

Why didnt you post his vegas stats or last years playoff stats? Weird. Lol lol

So you're going to ignore his stats that blatantly show that he wasn't mediocre?

You don't have a leg to stand on. Just as with your "down the stretch" comment, your claim about Hellebuyck being mediocre two playoffs in a row doesn't hold water.

I didn't post his stats because they don't affect my argument in the slightest? Just because you WANT my argument to be that he wasn't mediocre in the playoffs this spring or that he didn't have a poor series against Vegas doesn't mean that my argument actually was that.

If you want to argue against strawmen, go out in a field and shout at them. Don't bother me with your logical fallacies.

 

[kylbaz]

So you're going to ignore his stats that blatantly show that he wasn't mediocre?

You don't have a leg to stand on. Just as with your "down the stretch" comment, your claim about Hellebuyck being mediocre two playoffs in a row doesn't hold water.

I didn't post his stats because they don't affect my argument in the slightest? Just because you WANT my argument to be that he wasn't mediocre in the playoffs this spring or that he didn't have a poor series against Vegas doesn't mean that my argument actually was that.

If you want to argue against strawmen, go out in a field and shout at them. Don't bother me with your logical fallacies.

So he was mediocre last year (you ignore) and was mediocre against vegas (cost us the series) but you dont think he was mediocre? Oh I have a good idea, go back to point out how I thought he was poor down the stretch but then apologized when I found out I was mistaken. Lol lol

 

[Romang67]

So he was mediocre last year (you ignore) and was mediocre against vegas (cost us the series) but you dont think he was mediocre? Oh I have a good idea, go back to point out how I thought he was poor down the stretch but then apologized when I found out I was mistaken. Lol lol

Is it just that you don't know what mediocre means? It means average to below average. Hellebuyck was objectively NOT average to below average in the 2018 playoffs, as I've already shown. You can pull up his playoff stats in 2018 and see for yourself.

Again, if you want to argue against a strawman, go out and shout in a field. I'm not going to entertain arguments against claims I haven't made. You're not going to fool anyone into thinking you're winning arguments when you're not arguing against anyone.

You are, quite simply, unequivocally incorrect. Now stop trying to shift the goalposts and defend your claim that he was below average in the 2018 playoffs.

If it helps, here is a list of statistics for goalies with more than 4 games played in those playoffs.

You'll notice how Hellebuyck didn't place in the bottom half.

Your turn. How was Hellebuyck mediocre in the entirety of the 2018 playoffs?

I took the liberty of bolding the part that makes your strawmanning ridiculous. We're not talking about just the Vegas series. You claimed he was mediocre two playoffs in a row. That, of course, encompasses the entirety of both those playoffs.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Helle had a rough night last night. He let in half of the shots he faced. He will have a chance to redeem himself on Thursday.

Lol.

Helle is the #1 reason for our success to date this season. Whatever equipment adjustment issues he went through last year have been overcome. The Hellepeg Jets are benefitting greatly from that.

 

[rubikscube]

does helle's GAA of .500 skew his stats this year?

That would be pretty unfortunate for him

 

[DRW204]

does helle's GAA of .500 skew his stats this year?

That would be pretty unfortunate for him

not really. its just a sample size of 2 shots/1 GA

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Is it just that you don't know what mediocre means? It means average to below average. Hellebuyck was objectively NOT average to below average in the 2018 playoffs, as I've already shown. You can pull up his playoff stats in 2018 and see for yourself.

Again, if you want to argue against a strawman, go out and shout in a field. I'm not going to entertain arguments against claims I haven't made. You're not going to fool anyone into thinking you're winning arguments when you're not arguing against anyone.

You are, quite simply, unequivocally incorrect. Now stop trying to shift the goalposts and defend your claim that he was below average in the 2018 playoffs.

If it helps, here is a list of statistics for goalies with more than 4 games played in those playoffs.

You'll notice how Hellebuyck didn't place in the bottom half.

Your turn. How was Hellebuyck mediocre in the entirety of the 2018 playoffs?

I took the liberty of bolding the part that makes your strawmanning ridiculous. We're not talking about just the Vegas series. You claimed he was mediocre two playoffs in a row. That, of course, encompasses the entirety of both those playoffs.

It's over, he ded.

But seriously, Helle was great in that playoffs up until the Vegas series and even then he wasn't bad Fleury was just amazing. Last year he was average all year but I certainly wouldn't blame our playoff loss on him.

Binnington cost his team games in the playoffs last year tbh, no goalie is perfect for a run of 25ish games to the cup, the team needs to pick up the goalie from time to time.