Player Discussion: Connor Hellebuyck

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nobody imp0rtant

Registered pessimist
May 23, 2018
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What happened? I missed it.

Helly had to play about a minute while Brossoit got some equipment repairs done. Gave up a goal on two shots. I guess this is what happens when he doesn't get a chance to do his eye warmups. :nod:

giphy.gif
 

Gm0ney

Unicorns salient
Oct 12, 2011
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Sure, I guess if you want to cherry pick only reasonably-sized samples, Hellebuyck has been above-average to elite at every level he's played at since 2012...
 
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NotCommitted

Registered User
Jul 4, 2013
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Every goalie has aspects you can focus on and convince yourself they suck, if that's what you want to do.

Going by memory and gut-feeling without stats to back this up, but I think against Vegas 2018 it wasn't a case of Hellebuyck sucking, it was Fleury being lights out and the team being outcoached. The Jets just looked toothless as a team after the first games. Last year against STL on the whole you could argue Helle was the better goalie in that series, but I didn't like his performance. I just felt he let in too many soft goals in key moments and combined with the teams inability to cope with a loss of momentum, they lost those games. Again a lot of it falls on the team as well. You can't fall apart every time your goalie lets in a softie, which is exactly what happened with the Jets. In a way the STL series was weird, on the other hand the team really stepped it up and it was a hard fought series against eventual Cup champs, but at the same time you had this feeling that despite their ultimately pretty good performance, the team was fundamentally flawed.

This season Helle is having a great bounce back season and that's what really makes goalies good in the long term - how they cope with adversity and bounce back. Any goalie can be great for a 10 or 20-game stretch, but for the really good ones you know you can trust them to bounce back even when they are having difficulties for a game or for a stretch. I think that's the value what good starters bring to their teams, the team never has to try to gamble on the goalie or hope for a miracle stretch. They know what they have and they know they'll always bounce back.

I haven't been totally sold on Hellebuyck, but this season is convincing me he really is very good and the bad stretches are just momentary underperforming.
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
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So apparently Helle has only saved us 13 goals this year based on the number of high quality shots. I thought it would have been much higher.

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5394750

GAR is an expectation based on averages. The specific number of goals would have to be done case by case and would take a lot more conditional probability and computing.

13 GAR puts Hellebuyck as the highest impact goaltender in the NHL and sixth highest impact NHLer.
 

Duke749

Savannah Ghost Pirates
Apr 6, 2010
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GAR is an expectation based on averages. The specific number of goals would have to be done case by case and would take a lot more conditional probability and computing.

13 GAR puts Hellebuyck as the highest impact goaltender in the NHL and sixth highest impact NHLer.

That sounds about right considering the impact goalies can have especially with a team like ours that overall is not that good defensively to begin with. Guy should be getting a little Hart talk honestly.
 

Adam da bomb

Registered User
May 1, 2016
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That sounds about right considering the impact goalies can have especially with a team like ours that overall is not that good defensively to begin with. Guy should be getting a little Hart talk honestly.
When did a goalie last win it?
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
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How does xGAR work? DuckDuckGo doesn’t find any hits on it so it must be pretty obscure?

GAR uses how the team scores goals with a player on the ice as the major component
xGAR uses how the team creates xgoals with a player on the ice as the major component
Both use xgoals as major component for defense
Goalie GAR is just how a team out performs their defensive xGAR with the goalie on the ice

GAR is a bit more descriptive of how the team performed with the player
xGAR is a bit more predictive of how the team will perform in the future

That said, there is some skill in translating GAR->xGAR (offensively), so really a mixed effects model using both would be superior
(in my opinion and how I build my own private models... and I also add straight Corsi as well for my own models but that's different)
 
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Jets 31

This Dude loves the Jets and GIF's
Sponsor
Mar 3, 2015
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Likely before I started watching hockey. :laugh: I don’t think he’d have any chance of winning. Just think he should be getting a little bit of talk. The voters can be so predictable.
Didn't Price or Brodeur win one ? I could just be thinking Vezina though .
 

Tommigun

Registered User
Jan 5, 2018
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4,960
GAR uses how the team scores goals with a player on the ice as the major component
xGAR uses how the team creates xgoals with a player on the ice as the major component
Both use xgoals as major component for defense
Goalie GAR is just how a team out performs their defensive xGAR with the goalie on the ice

GAR is a bit more descriptive of how the team performed with the player
xGAR is a bit more predictive of how the team will perform in the future

That said, there is some skill in translating GAR->xGAR (offensively), so really a mixed effects model using both would be superior
(in my opinion and how I build my own private models... and I also add straight Corsi as well for my own models but that's different)

Thanks for the write up!

How can Connor have such low numbers?
 
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