Player Discussion: Connor Hellebuyck

[garret9]

Thanks for the write up!

How can Connor have such low numbers?

Long story short, his really good offense is sunk by worse defense, rough PK with lots of PK TOI, and a bad penalty differential.

EVEN STRENGTH

At even strength Connor has the second highest offensive rating on the team (+4.8 goals), but the worst defensive rating (-3.7 goals).

The primary stats that are used in EV GAR are:
Goals for per hour (xGoals for per hour if you were using xGAR) for offense
xGoals against per hour for defense

These stats are RAPM adjusted, which is essentially a regression method where the model looks at all 10 sets of players to play a shift in the NHL, looks at the +/- per hour (whether that's by goals or xgoals) and then solves for player input (oversimplifying but essentially).

2019-20 Connor:
EV Goals for per hour +0.139 (this is 3rd best on Jets)
xGoals for per hour -0.001 (this is 6th best on Jets)
xGoals against per hour +0.254 (this is 17th or worst on Jets)

Essentially his even strength numbers suggest that he gives up more than he creates, despite being very good at creating. He's the only Jet giving up more that 0.2 per hour and only one other is giving up more than 0.1 per hour. If we look deeper into why that may be with WOWY analysis, we see that all of Connor's linemates do no better in goal differential or Corsi differential with or without him, and tend to do much worse with him in xgoal differential with him.

POWER PLAY

On the power play Connor has just been passable, with a 0.1 GAR.

Wheeler, Laine, and Scheifele have been the forwards that seem to drive goals on the power play, while Connor has neither driven nor sunk the team in that regard. His linemates see 0.21 goals scored by the team fewer with him than without him on the power play, which ranks 4/7 for Jets forwards with enough TOI.

PENALTY KILL

Connor has the 2nd worst PK numbers on the team, with a -1.1 GAR.

The team as a whole has been really bad on the penalty kill, and Connor is about team average in allowing shots and quality against. The issue is that he's been a lot worse than the players who get his much ice time on PK, or you could think of it as he has the more ice time on SH than the players that have performed worse than him.

PENALTY DIFFERENTIAL

Connor is the only forward on the Jets with a penalty differential GAR worse than -0.1. He's at -0.4 GAR.

He's been okay in the discipline, taking a low enough amount to be about 0.7 goals worth of penaltylessness, but his lack of drawing penalties has sunk him by 1.1 goals.

 

[Tommigun]

Long story short, his really good offense is sunk by worse defense, rough PK with lots of PK TOI, and a bad penalty differential.

EVEN STRENGTH

At even strength Connor has the second highest offensive rating on the team (+4.8 goals), but the worst defensive rating (-3.7 goals).

The primary stats that are used in EV GAR are:
Goals for per hour (xGoals for per hour if you were using xGAR) for offense
xGoals against per hour for defense

These stats are RAPM adjusted, which is essentially a regression method where the model looks at all 10 sets of players to play a shift in the NHL, looks at the +/- per hour (whether that's by goals or xgoals) and then solves for player input (oversimplifying but essentially).

2019-20 Connor:
EV Goals for per hour +0.139 (this is 3rd best on Jets)
xGoals for per hour -0.001 (this is 6th best on Jets)
xGoals against per hour +0.254 (this is 17th or worst on Jets)

Essentially his even strength numbers suggest that he gives up more than he creates, despite being very good at creating. He's the only Jet giving up more that 0.2 per hour and only one other is giving up more than 0.1 per hour. If we look deeper into why that may be with WOWY analysis, we see that all of Connor's linemates do no better in goal differential or Corsi differential with or without him, and tend to do much worse with him in xgoal differential with him.

POWER PLAY

On the power play Connor has just been passable, with a 0.1 GAR.

Wheeler, Laine, and Scheifele have been the forwards that seem to drive goals on the power play, while Connor has neither driven nor sunk the team in that regard. His linemates see 0.21 goals scored by the team fewer with him than without him on the power play, which ranks 4/7 for Jets forwards with enough TOI.

PENALTY KILL

Connor has the 2nd worst PK numbers on the team, with a -1.1 GAR.

The team as a whole has been really bad on the penalty kill, and Connor is about team average in allowing shots and quality against. The issue is that he's been a lot worse than the players who get his much ice time on PK, or you could think of it as he has the more ice time on SH than the players that have performed worse than him.

PENALTY DIFFERENTIAL

Connor is the only forward on the Jets with a penalty differential GAR worse than -0.1. He's at -0.4 GAR.

He's been okay in the discipline, taking a low enough amount to be about 0.7 goals worth of penaltylessness, but his lack of drawing penalties has sunk him by 1.1 goals.

Wow! Thank you so much for the excellent info. I’ll read through and digest it now but wanted to already thank you for the great info.

Edit: Read it and loved it, thanks for the analysis!!

 

[kylbaz]

Old helle is back. Yikes

 

[SCP Guy]

Yes he was a tire fire tonight... We all hope it's just a blip or the tank thread will soon explode.

 

[Heldig]

Old helle is back. Yikes

Pathetic showing. Very worrisome. The team D is bad and if Helle is average the Jets likely lose. When he is below average the Jets get embarrassed.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

He is not consistent or Vezina calibre. Sorry.

 

[Neuf]

Goalies have bad games. Maurice should have pulled him after 4. After 3 he was clearly not in the zone. Game was out of reach by the third

 

[bluefan]

He needs to be sat for a game. Unfortunately, Chevy gave him a Pavelec level contract

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

Goalies have bad games. Maurice should have pulled him after 4. After 3 he was clearly not in the zone. Game was out of reach by the third

Helle should be pulled every time he gives up a stupid goal trying to handle the puck outside of his crease, simply because it happens so often. How else is the moron going to learn?

 

[Gabe Kupari]

He had a rough night.. Should have been pulled after 2nd goal as helle looked just off.. But, most nights its been Helle stopping 46 of 50 shots..

So.. Yeah, odd takes here.

 

[GNP]

Helle lost his focus tonight -terrible. He's thinking to much of the All Star selection and all the glory -- but the Jet's come "first" Helle. Terrible effort --wake up man !!!

 

[Jets4Life]

Old helle is back. Yikes

You have demonstrated you have an irrational hate-on for Helle before. No surprise you are the first to turn on him after a few mediocre games.

Good work.

 

[Jets4Life]

Time to shake things up, and play Brossoit a bit more. With a tire fire defense, it was only a matter of time before Hellebuyck went through a rough patch. I hope Chevy either resolves the situation with Buff, or acquires some better players on the blueline.

 

[kylbaz]

You have demonstrated you have an irrational hate-on for Helle before. No surprise you are the first to turn on him after a few mediocre games.

Good work.

Oh you mean like all the supporters who were calling me out because he had a hot streak going lol.

"Few mediocre games" is 3-5-1 in his last ten games with an .876 save percentage. That is not a few games, nor is it mediocre, it's terrible.

 

[Jets4Life]

Oh you mean like all the supporters who were calling me out because he had a hot streak going lol.

"Few mediocre games" is 3-5-1 in his last ten games with an .876 save percentage. That is not a few games, nor is it mediocre, it's terrible.

Just like Hellebuyck was "terrible" in the 2017-18 playoffs?
Just like Hellebuyck was terrible down the 2017-18 stretch?
Just like Hellebuyck is the reason the Jets failed to win the Stanley Cup in 2018?
Just like Hellebuyck cost us the series against the Blues?

Your false narratives are getting old, and have been disproven.

I tend to look at the big picture. Hellebuyck is still playing over 0.920% for the year, and is having a Vezina-caliber season, just like 2017-18. Having a 0.917% is well above average for a career. If Helle continues to go through a slump well past All-Star weekend, it will be a legitimate concern. Meanwhile, he is the Jets MVP this season, and the only reason we are in playoff contention.

 

[kylbaz]

Just like Hellebuyck was "terrible" in the 2017-18 playoffs?
Just like Hellebuyck was terrible down the 2017-18 stretch?
Just like Hellebuyck is the reason the Jets failed to win the Stganley Cup in 2018?
Just like Hellebuyck cost us the series against the Blues?

Your false narratives are getting old, and have been disproven.

I tend to look at the big picture. Hellebuyck is still playing over 0.920% for the year, and is having a Vezina-calibre season, just like 2017-18. Having a 0.917% is well above average for a career. If Helle continues to go through a slump well past All-Star weekend, it will be a legitimate concern. Meanwhile, he is the Jets MVP this season, and the only reason we are in playoff contention.

Posting his stats for his last ten games are false narratives? [MOD] You like to look at the bigger picture and ignore what he's done for the last quarter of the season and pretend like everything is just peachy? lol

 

[Scheifele55]

Maybe Paul Maurice could play Brossoit more than twice a month. Connor Hellebuyck has been the tale of two players this year. I kind of wonder if she is fatigued or injured.

 

[tbcwpg]

Maybe Paul Maurice could play Brossoit more than twice a month. Connor Hellebuyck has been the tale of two players this year. I kind of wonder if she is fatigued or injured.

Brossoit hasn't been good at all. Hellebuyck needs to sort out his mental game right now. Probably needs a break but Brossoit isn't too reliable right now. I'd give him the Minnesota game (Brossoit).

 

[Ducky10]

Posting his stats for his last ten games are false narratives? [MOD] You like to look at the bigger picture and ignore what he's done for the last quarter of the season and pretend like everything is just peachy? lol

And you want to ignore what he did for the other three quarters and pretend like everything sucks? Why are the last 10 games more meaningful than all the others? That makes absolutely no sense.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Helle should be pulled every time he gives up a stupid goal trying to handle the puck outside of his crease, simply because it happens so often. How else is the moron going to learn?

We’d run out of goalies fast as last time it was Broissot doing the same thing but sure.

 

[Adam da bomb]

He needs to be sat for a game. Unfortunately, Chevy gave him a Pavelec level contract

So now Helly is comparable to Pav?? Yes a head scratcher there.

 

[kylbaz]

And you want to ignore what he did for the other three quarters and pretend like everything sucks? Why are the last 10 games more meaningful than all the others? That makes absolutely no sense.

Are you seriously asking why his recent play is more important than it was months ago?
Maybe because id prefer to see consistency or an uptrend not a downtrend lol. Are you telling me if Laine scored 30 goals in the first two months then zero the next two months that wouldnt be concerning to you?
That has to be one of the silliest posts ive ever seen on here.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Are you seriously asking why his recent play is more important than it was months ago?
Maybe because id prefer to see consistency or an uptrend not a downtrend lol. Are you telling me if Laine scored 30 goals in the first two months then zero the next two months that wouldnt be concerning to you?
That has to be one of the silliest posts ive ever seen on here.

We saw how awful a Laine was after playing 36 minutes maybe a Helly is just tired.

 

[GNP]

Helle should be pulled every time he gives up a stupid goal trying to handle the puck outside of his crease, simply because it happens so often. How else is the moron going to learn?

________________________________________________

Everytime Helle goes behind the net and tries to handle the puck -- I just cringe and hope he doesn't give it away. Stay in your net Helle, you just not a good puck handler at the moment.

 

[bluefan]

So now Helly is comparable to Pav?? Yes a head scratcher there.

Both got a contract neither earned is the head scratcher part.