Currently it would be in that range, but a few games against the Oilers, a typical showing against Ottawa, and a split of the games against Vancouver will have them back in the 5-8 range pretty comfortably, I'd think.
And the teams behind us are going to magically stop losing? I suspect we finish with a similar winning percentage to what we have now, which means taking 6-9 points in the final 8, for arguments sake, let's say 6, leaving us at 51 points.
I look at it like this...
- Seattle will have a top 5 pick.
- We simply aren't "catching" Buffalo, Anaheim, New Jersey or Columbus
- Ottawa is also extremely unlikely, with the 51 point estimate, the Sens would need to win 11 of 14 remaining points, while 5 of 7 games are against playoff teams
Since I won't bank on a lottery win, that leaves us out of the top 6
Now a look at the other teams behind us...
- Vancouver, 14 games left (in 22 days), Oilers x5, Flames x4, Leafs x2, Jets x2 and Ottawa x1. That is a tough sked made tougher by the very condensed schedule. My gut says they get 6-8 points in the 10 games not against the Flames. That would mean our 4 games would determine who picks higher. - let's put them in the same pick range as us
- Los Angeles, 10 games left. Avalanche x4, Ducks x3, Coyotes x2, Blues x1. Their sked seems comparable to their last 10 where they took 8 points, they would need to get 10 points to beat the Flames 51. - let's put them in the same pick range as us
- Detroit, 5 games left. Blue Jackets x2, Lightning x2, Hurricanes x1, they'd need to win 9 of 10 points. - They will pick ahead of us
- San Jose, 8 games left. Avalanche x4, Coyotes x3, Knights x1. Sharks are sinking like a rock with 5 points in their last 10, and that was a weaker schedule then their last. They'd need 9 of 16 points, I just don't see it happening - They will pick ahead of us
So without factoring in the lotto, we have:
Picks 1-6: Anaheim, Buffalo, Columbus, New Jersey, Ottawa, Seattle
Picks 7-8: Detroit, San Jose
Picks 9-11 : Calgary, Los Angeles, Vancouver
So I really think 5-8 is very unlikely, but I will concede 9th is not unrealistic.
edit: removed the Coyotes, as I forgot they forfeit their 1st round pick this year.