Discussion in 'Ottawa Senators' started by Day Man, Jun 21, 2017.
Claesson - Karlsson
Phaneuf - Ceci
Chabot/Boro - Wideman/Harpur
EzPz. Don't fix what ain't broken.
Any conjecture on lines is tricky given Boucher will change them day to day, but I suspect a few things:
- Turris, Brassard, Pageau and Thompson are the centers
- Burrows will remain a favorite to continue to play in the top 9, likely seeing some time with Brass and Ryan at times
- Turris, Hoffman and Stone will see tons of ice time, although not always together
- MacArthur will be moved around as required
- Smith will play top 9 LW, but will see lots of time in a pinch at center for key faceoffs that might change / augment his roll somewhat
- Pyatt will play on the 4th line for the most part
- Dzingel will have to earn his way above the 4th line
- Paul and White are on the outside looking in short of injuries or exceptional play
Given the above...
One of White / Paul will play at least 50 games due to injuries
The other will play 30 games due to injuries
D is straight forward as posted by swiftwin. A lot of moving parts, but that's as good a loose prediction as any.
Since we already have an idea of what 95% of the team will be to start the season... here's what an average offensive team would have roughly looked like last season:
We can also use this to project whether the offense will be better than average next season and where the strengths & weaknesses are... because these average numbers don't change a whole lot from season to season. So these numbers are useful if you want to project each player's 2018 season out to compare.
It's much easier than trying to guess what 30 separate teams full of players will do next season.
I like it. 3 good scoring lines and a defensively responsible 4th line with some jam that can pot a few goals. It's so nice knowing we will have a 4th line this year.
Chabot will be in there... Chabot - Boro/Harpur/Wideman
I'll tell you what, I think we're going to love our 4th line this season. Our best 4th line since Ruutu/Kelly/Neil played their hearts out during the Pittsburgh series.
It better be a good 4th line, we're spending 5M on it.
A smart GM would have put that 5M towards a top 4 defenseman (like Methot), or a better goalie as an insurance policy against Andy's inevitable regression.
Chabot and Condon are exactly what you describe, and cheaper than what you would have wanted, but I disgress.
In Bouchers system, it will probably be one of the best and most reliable 4th lines in the NHL. I bet it will be a topic of discussion on Hfboards next season.
5 million is a lot for a 4th line in 2005. It's barely above average in 2017, and barely puts a dent in the cap (while filling out an entire line of defensively strong players who can give 10-12 mins and PK).
The NHL is going more and more towards rolling 4 capable lines, and I'm glad that the Sens are fully on board with that mentality.
A smart GM would have the basic math skills needed to know that the league minimum salary dictates the least a 3 line can cost is 650k per player, or 1.95 mil. So, he wouldn't have 5 mil to spend, rather he'd have 3.05 mil max, and likely a terrible 4th line...
The most likely scenario for us to go cheap on the 4th line would be playing White, Paul and Pyatt, which would cost about 2.7. As is, I expect our 4th to be Pyatt, Thompson and Dzingel (I expect him to come in at max 1-1.5, Hoffman got 2 in arbitration after a significantly better season) a line that will like cost us 4 mil.
Puempel - Paul - Pyatt
Solid 4th line right there. Costs half (2.5M less) of what we're paying now for our 4th line.
Not a bunch of old farts either. They are getting better with age and experience while the likes of Thompson and Burrows are regressing with age.
I want Chabot on the 3rd pairing, not pushed into a role he might not be ready for.
Sens D in 2017/18 should have been:
????? - Karlsson
Phaneuf - Ceci
Chabot - Claesson
With the spot beside Karlsson being filled by trade by Methot/Scandella/Hjalmarsson, or by UFA by Kulikov/Alzner/Hainsey.
Too bad Dorion couldn't find a D. Guess no one wants to play with Karlsson
It'll probably end up with Dzingel on the 4th and Burrows on another line so the "4th line" will be more like 4 Mil if Dzingel gets around 1.5.
I'm not defending the Burrows trade, but a team with Puempel and Paul on it wouldn't even make it to the post season...let alone to within a goal of the Cup(yes the team we had this past season was probably our best chance since 03).
Fully expect Paul to be in Belleville to start the year, if he were were waiver eligible I'd expect a claim too.....just like Puempel last year.
A team with Neil and Kelly on it didn't do so bad, are Paul and Puempel really that much worse?
All kidding aside, Paul has yet to prove he belongs in the NHL, and Puempel was simply not very good. Take away his 3 pts game against Arizona (everybody seems to love taking away Burrow's game against Colorado) and he had 6 pts in 39 games as a one dimensional offensive winger. Yeah, that's a much better use of our money....
That is a useful post
I think the chart runs into problems because guys like Smith got their points playing in the top 6, you have them on our 3rd line, it's unlikely they produce similar to last year unless they have a similar role. Same with Pyatt, he doesn't produce what he did last year without starting hot on Turris' wing.
definitely a good starting spot, but you have to make projections based on their expected role instead of last season's totals. MacArthur likely puts up more than 4 games worth of pts this year,
It doesn't make any predictions for 2018.
It shows an average "pace car", provides last seasons stats and offers both to people who want to create their own 2018 projections to compare. Your differences vs. The pace car will help you guage how far you think the team will be from 15th in either direction.
It's also broken down to give an idea of where the strengths and weaknesses are for people who want to propose improvement.
Hoffman Turris Ryan
Smith Pageau Stone
MacArthur Brassard Burrows
Dzingel Thompson Pyatt
And if MacArthur chooses not to play, I sure hope we have Stalberg signed.
MacArthur Turris Ryan
Smith Pageau Stone
Hoffman Brassard Stalberg*
Dzingel Thompson* Pyatt
Hoffman Turris Ryan
MacArthur Brass Stone
Sorry, I didn't mean to suggest you intended it as projections, just that last years stats can be misleading, particularly when bunched together as line stats in what I assume were intended to represent expected lines that differ from the actual roles those guys played.
It's a good jumping point, but I just wanted to point out people really need to consider changes in roles, like that Smith mostly played a top 6 role, and Pyatt was playing on the third line and Turris' line mostly. If we project both to play different roles this year, projections of their stats need to take that into account, but the way the table is laid doesn't make it clear what role they got last years stats in.
Anyhow, taking all that into consideration, and for some fun, here's what I think (hope?) might happen;
I think our scoring will be spread out more than typical teams, mostly because I feel Boucher will keep our top guy all on separate lines. I expect both Brassard and Ryan to have bounce back years offensively. Dzingel will take a step back because he won't get the same top 6 mins, same with Pyatt. My projected numbers are based on everyone playing 82 games, which obviously won't happen.
Fair enough ,what i meant more with my post is the overall lack of speed on skill we have on that side.It kinda makes our team one demensional ,we have speed to burn at forward on the left .But have nobody that can provide the juice from that side on defense.
Conversely its the opposite on the right,forwards are slow .Defense is very mobile.Just would like to see more balance.
Doesn't matter how many times it's repeated.
But Claesson will not be Karlsson's partner. He is a bottom pairing D.
So you would have us repeat what happened this year: run a poor 4th line and lose in no small part because of it.
You are such a "blue-collar hardass"
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