Line Combos: 2017-2018 Sens

[swiftwin]

Claesson - Karlsson
Phaneuf - Ceci
Chabot/Boro - Wideman/Harpur


EzPz. Don't fix what ain't broken.

 

[Dr.Sens(e)]

Any conjecture on lines is tricky given Boucher will change them day to day, but I suspect a few things:
- Turris, Brassard, Pageau and Thompson are the centers
- Burrows will remain a favorite to continue to play in the top 9, likely seeing some time with Brass and Ryan at times
- Turris, Hoffman and Stone will see tons of ice time, although not always together
- MacArthur will be moved around as required
- Smith will play top 9 LW, but will see lots of time in a pinch at center for key faceoffs that might change / augment his roll somewhat
- Pyatt will play on the 4th line for the most part
- Dzingel will have to earn his way above the 4th line
- Paul and White are on the outside looking in short of injuries or exceptional play

Given the above...

Hoffman-Turris-Stone
MacArthur-Brassard-Ryan
Smith-Pageau-Burrows
Dzingel-Thompson-Pyatt

One of White / Paul will play at least 50 games due to injuries
The other will play 30 games due to injuries

D is straight forward as posted by swiftwin. A lot of moving parts, but that's as good a loose prediction as any.

 

[trentmccleary]

Since we already have an idea of what 95% of the team will be to start the season... here's what an average offensive team would have roughly looked like last season:

Avg line|Total|Sens Depth Chart|2017 totals|Individual
53-70-58|181 pts|Hoffman-Turris-Stone|170 pts|61-55-54
34-46-41|121 pts|MacArthur-Brassard-Ryan|64 pts|0-39-25
21-29-25|75 pts|Smith-Pageau-Burrows|96 pts|32-33-31
11-17-14|42 pts| Dzingel-Thompson-Pyatt|57 pts|32-2-23
44-34|78 pts|Karlsson-Phaneuf|101 pts|71-30
22-17|39 pts|Ceci-Wideman|34 pts|17-17
13-9|22 pts|Claessen-Borowiecki|14 pts|11-3

We can also use this to project whether the offense will be better than average next season and where the strengths & weaknesses are... because these average numbers don't change a whole lot from season to season. So these numbers are useful if you want to project each player's 2018 season out to compare.

It's much easier than trying to guess what 30 separate teams full of players will do next season.

 

[Langdon Alger]

While this would be my lineup with this roster I doubt GB goes with this.

Hoffman - Turris - Dzingel
MacArthur - Brassard - Ryan
Smith - Pageau - Stone
Burrows - Thompson - Pyatt

Phaneuf - Karlsson
Claesson - Ceci
Boroweicki - Wideman

Anderson - Condon

I like it. 3 good scoring lines and a defensively responsible 4th line with some jam that can pot a few goals. It's so nice knowing we will have a 4th line this year.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I like it. 3 good scoring lines and a defensively responsible 4th line with some jam that can pot a few goals. It's so nice knowing we will have a 4th line this year.

Chabot will be in there... Chabot - Boro/Harpur/Wideman

 

[BUCKLE UP]

I'll tell you what, I think we're going to love our 4th line this season. Our best 4th line since Ruutu/Kelly/Neil played their hearts out during the Pittsburgh series.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I'll tell you what, I think we're going to love our 4th line this season. Our best 4th line since Ruutu/Kelly/Neil played their hearts out during the Pittsburgh series.

It better be a good 4th line, we're spending 5M on it.

A smart GM would have put that 5M towards a top 4 defenseman (like Methot), or a better goalie as an insurance policy against Andy's inevitable regression.

 

[Sensinitis]

It better be a good 4th line, we're spending 5M on it.

A smart GM would have put that 5M towards a top 4 defenseman (like Methot), or a better goalie as an insurance policy against Andy's inevitable regression.

Chabot and Condon are exactly what you describe, and cheaper than what you would have wanted, but I disgress.

 

[Samsquanch]

It better be a good 4th line, we're spending 5M on it.

A smart GM would have put that 5M towards a top 4 defenseman (like Methot), or a better goalie as an insurance policy against Andy's inevitable regression.

In Bouchers system, it will probably be one of the best and most reliable 4th lines in the NHL. I bet it will be a topic of discussion on Hfboards next season.

5 million is a lot for a 4th line in 2005. It's barely above average in 2017, and barely puts a dent in the cap (while filling out an entire line of defensively strong players who can give 10-12 mins and PK).

The NHL is going more and more towards rolling 4 capable lines, and I'm glad that the Sens are fully on board with that mentality.

 

[Micklebot]

It better be a good 4th line, we're spending 5M on it.

A smart GM would have put that 5M towards a top 4 defenseman (like Methot), or a better goalie as an insurance policy against Andy's inevitable regression.

A smart GM would have the basic math skills needed to know that the league minimum salary dictates the least a 3 line can cost is 650k per player, or 1.95 mil. So, he wouldn't have 5 mil to spend, rather he'd have 3.05 mil max, and likely a terrible 4th line...

The most likely scenario for us to go cheap on the 4th line would be playing White, Paul and Pyatt, which would cost about 2.7. As is, I expect our 4th to be Pyatt, Thompson and Dzingel (I expect him to come in at max 1-1.5, Hoffman got 2 in arbitration after a significantly better season) a line that will like cost us 4 mil.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Puempel - Paul - Pyatt

Solid 4th line right there. Costs half (2.5M less) of what we're paying now for our 4th line.

Not a bunch of old farts either. They are getting better with age and experience while the likes of Thompson and Burrows are regressing with age.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Chabot and Condon are exactly what you describe, and cheaper than what you would have wanted, but I disgress.

I want Chabot on the 3rd pairing, not pushed into a role he might not be ready for.

Sens D in 2017/18 should have been:

????? - Karlsson
Phaneuf - Ceci
Chabot - Claesson
Wideman, Borowiecki

With the spot beside Karlsson being filled by trade by Methot/Scandella/Hjalmarsson, or by UFA by Kulikov/Alzner/Hainsey.

Too bad Dorion couldn't find a D. Guess no one wants to play with Karlsson

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Puempel - Paul - Pyatt

Solid 4th line right there. Costs half (2.5M less) of what we're paying now for our 4th line.

Not a bunch of old farts either. They are getting better with age and experience while the likes of Thompson and Burrows are regressing with age.

It'll probably end up with Dzingel on the 4th and Burrows on another line so the "4th line" will be more like 4 Mil if Dzingel gets around 1.5.

 

[Shanny]

Puempel - Paul - Pyatt

Solid 4th line right there. Costs half (2.5M less) of what we're paying now for our 4th line.

Not a bunch of old farts either. They are getting better with age and experience while the likes of Thompson and Burrows are regressing with age.

I'm not defending the Burrows trade, but a team with Puempel and Paul on it wouldn't even make it to the post season...let alone to within a goal of the Cup(yes the team we had this past season was probably our best chance since 03).

Fully expect Paul to be in Belleville to start the year, if he were were waiver eligible I'd expect a claim too.....just like Puempel last year.

 

[Micklebot]

I'm not defending the Burrows trade, but a team with Puempel and Paul on it wouldn't even make it to the post season...let alone to within a goal of the Cup(yes the team we had this past season was probably our best chance since 03).

Fully expect Paul to be in Belleville to start the year, if he were were waiver eligible I'd expect a claim too.....just like Puempel last year.

A team with Neil and Kelly on it didn't do so bad, are Paul and Puempel really that much worse?

All kidding aside, Paul has yet to prove he belongs in the NHL, and Puempel was simply not very good. Take away his 3 pts game against Arizona (everybody seems to love taking away Burrow's game against Colorado) and he had 6 pts in 39 games as a one dimensional offensive winger. Yeah, that's a much better use of our money....

 

[Icelevel]

Thanks @trent
That is a useful post

 

[Micklebot]

Since we already have an idea of what 95% of the team will be to start the season... here's what an average offensive team would have roughly looked like last season:

Avg line|Total|Sens Depth Chart|2017 totals|Individual
53-70-58|181 pts|Hoffman-Turris-Stone|170 pts|61-55-54
34-46-41|121 pts|MacArthur-Brassard-Ryan|64 pts|0-39-25
21-29-25|75 pts|Smith-Pageau-Burrows|96 pts|32-33-31
11-17-14|42 pts| Dzingel-Thompson-Pyatt|57 pts|32-2-23
44-34|78 pts|Karlsson-Phaneuf|101 pts|71-30
22-17|39 pts|Ceci-Wideman|34 pts|17-17
13-9|22 pts|Claessen-Borowiecki|14 pts|11-3

We can also use this to project whether the offense will be better than average next season and where the strengths & weaknesses are... because these average numbers don't change a whole lot from season to season. So these numbers are useful if you want to project each player's 2018 season out to compare.

It's much easier than trying to guess what 30 separate teams full of players will do next season.

I think the chart runs into problems because guys like Smith got their points playing in the top 6, you have them on our 3rd line, it's unlikely they produce similar to last year unless they have a similar role. Same with Pyatt, he doesn't produce what he did last year without starting hot on Turris' wing.

definitely a good starting spot, but you have to make projections based on their expected role instead of last season's totals. MacArthur likely puts up more than 4 games worth of pts this year,

 

[trentmccleary]

I think the chart runs into problems because guys like Smith got their points playing in the top 6, you have them on our 3rd line, it's unlikely they produce similar to last year unless they have a similar role. Same with Pyatt, he doesn't produce what he did last year without starting hot on Turris' wing.

definitely a good starting spot, but you have to make projections based on their expected role instead of last season's totals. MacArthur likely puts up more than 4 games worth of pts this year,

It doesn't make any predictions for 2018.

It shows an average "pace car", provides last seasons stats and offers both to people who want to create their own 2018 projections to compare. Your differences vs. The pace car will help you guage how far you think the team will be from 15th in either direction.

It's also broken down to give an idea of where the strengths and weaknesses are for people who want to propose improvement.

 

[LuckyPierre]

Hoffman Turris Ryan
Smith Pageau Stone
MacArthur Brassard Burrows
Dzingel Thompson Pyatt

Chabot Karlsson
Phaneuf Ceci
Claesson Borowiecki

 

[LuckyPierre]

And if MacArthur chooses not to play, I sure hope we have Stalberg signed.

 

[SENSational1]

MacArthur Turris Ryan
Smith Pageau Stone
Hoffman Brassard Stalberg*
Dzingel Thompson* Pyatt
*Burrows/Paul/White

Claesson Karlsson
Chabot Phaneuf
Harpur Ceci

PP1
Hoffman Turris Ryan
Chabot EK
PP2
MacArthur Brass Stone
Ceci Phaneuf

PK1
Smith/Stalberg Pageau
Claesson EK

PK2
Pyatt Thompson
Ceci Harpur

 

[Micklebot]

It doesn't make any predictions for 2018.

It shows an average "pace car", provides last seasons stats and offers both to people who want to create their own 2018 projections to compare. Your differences vs. The pace car will help you guage how far you think the team will be from 15th in either direction.

It's also broken down to give an idea of where the strengths and weaknesses are for people who want to propose improvement.

Sorry, I didn't mean to suggest you intended it as projections, just that last years stats can be misleading, particularly when bunched together as line stats in what I assume were intended to represent expected lines that differ from the actual roles those guys played.

It's a good jumping point, but I just wanted to point out people really need to consider changes in roles, like that Smith mostly played a top 6 role, and Pyatt was playing on the third line and Turris' line mostly. If we project both to play different roles this year, projections of their stats need to take that into account, but the way the table is laid doesn't make it clear what role they got last years stats in.

Anyhow, taking all that into consideration, and for some fun, here's what I think (hope?) might happen;

MacArthur 15-20-35|Turris 25-30-55|Ryan 23-25-48|63 G 138 pts
Smith 15-20-35|Brassard 20-30-50|Stone 25-35-60|60 G 145 pts
Hoffman 30-25-55|Pageau 15-15-30|Burrows 15-20-35|60 G 120 pts
Dzingel 10-13-23|Thompson 5-5-10|Pyatt 5-10-15|20 G 48 pts
-------|--------|-------|--------
Claesson 6-15-21|Karlsson 19-61-80|| 25 G 101 pts
Phaneuf 10-20-30 |Harpur 3-15-18||13 G 48 pts
Chabot 8-23-30|Ceci 7-20-27||15 G 57 pts

I think our scoring will be spread out more than typical teams, mostly because I feel Boucher will keep our top guy all on separate lines. I expect both Brassard and Ryan to have bounce back years offensively. Dzingel will take a step back because he won't get the same top 6 mins, same with Pyatt. My projected numbers are based on everyone playing 82 games, which obviously won't happen.

 

[topshelf15]

Not trying to be a dick - just a bit of info in case you are curious. What we did most of the time was not a left wing lock. It's more or less semantics but it wasn't always the LW that stayed back and because our LD pinched along the boards doesn't make it a LW lock.

Usually, we had our LD pinch down with forward support to the middle of the ice and that F could have been any of the 3. As a coach, I will occasionally run something very similar to the LW lock in the offensive zone because it's less demanding mentally on the F's than what Ottawa does (I coach AAA but at Atom age levels so has to be simple). As the kids get older I would implement something closer to GB with the offside W dropping back and rotating as needed as it makes the forecheck a bit more effective imo.

Fair enough ,what i meant more with my post is the overall lack of speed on skill we have on that side.It kinda makes our team one demensional ,we have speed to burn at forward on the left .But have nobody that can provide the juice from that side on defense.

Conversely its the opposite on the right,forwards are slow .Defense is very mobile.Just would like to see more balance.

 

[source]

Doesn't matter how many times it's repeated.

But Claesson will not be Karlsson's partner. He is a bottom pairing D.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

It better be a good 4th line, we're spending 5M on it.

A smart GM would have put that 5M towards a top 4 defenseman (like Methot), or a better goalie as an insurance policy against Andy's inevitable regression.

So you would have us repeat what happened this year: run a poor 4th line and lose in no small part because of it.

You are such a "blue-collar hardass"