TL;DR - IMO, in a vacuum and with the known external factors taken away, I think it's relatively even.
With factors added in, Florida fans should be mad they paid more than expected, but should be happy with the player they got. Calgary fans are happy we got a way better deal than expected and we'll take that part of the victory lap for now. There are still many options on the pieces we received, so it's possible we could run a few more individual victory laps, or we might end up back tracking that initial victory lap.
I think both teams take a half step back in anticipation of several leaps forward though.
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Overall, I think it's even. There's even a slight bizarre facet to the trade where Calgary negotiated the deal to sign and trade and Zito paid the premium for that convenience, which perhaps is where the Scwindt and first come into play. I don't get why, but OK, but I think that was priced in. Heck, there's gotta be something specific that Zito paid Treliving a premium for beyond the assets swapped because it's also crazy for the timing of the deal to be consummated. It couldn't wait for the weekend to be over to be announced? It had to the Friday night?
Maybe it could be broken down to:
- Tkachuck @ 8 years for Weegar + Huberdeau @ 1 year
- Treliving doing work to extending Tkachuk camp, taking on risk/extra work on Weegar/Huberdeau deals and/or extra work to flip them, bidding war premium/quality for quantity for assets value (not skill), Zito convenience for the first and Schwindt.
But with circumstances known, I think Calgary got way more than any Flames fan ever expected. We were expecting a full on fleecing of our own. The fact we didn't get a full on fleecing was it's own victory lap. The rumored Blues deal was more what we were expecting so we got an absolute windfall.
Florida gets that top tier unicorn player they want and restructures their core to fit it in for an expected long period of contention. I've always thought it, but I have no doubt in my mind now that Zito loved what Calgary was attempting to build without elite talent/with some misfit styled pieces combined together. I think that's why he chased pieces like Bennett, Lomberg and now Tkachuk, and guys like Marchment really were excellent and exciting in that core. I wouldn't be surprised if he looked into Hathaway and other players of that ilk going forward. TBH, I think Florida fans also enjoy that style, no?
But I think somehow Zito hates dealing with contract extensions. I think that's why a few players walked and it seems Weegar and Huberdeau didn't even get counter offers. He almost straight up didn't seem interested at all. Treliving loves that stuff, so he swooped in and got value for giving Zito that type of convenience. Zito didn't even need to deal with the Tkachuk clan for the contract. Treliving did all of that and likely may have to do more with no guaranteed reward for putting in those negotiating efforts.
Calgary gets assets that fits a continued playoff mandate that the owners want, but gets a ton of flexibility in terms of both contending, retooling or rebuilding. Calgary also has the ability to add value to the deal purely by putting in some elbow grease and extending the players to a reasonable contract or retain and boost the asset trade values. But the whole situation isn't without risk and the whole damn thing requires a ton of elbow grease as well for Treliving to make it work.
For a retool contention, those that say the contracts of Weegar and Huberdeau might suck in the latter half, who cares. Their contract extension would also fit well when major Flames contracts expire, so it's a good fit for the cap structure. Trade them to their preferred destination for good value later on. If they won't re-sign and we are contending, then we flip them for a haul and likely for more contracts like this. If they won't re-sign and we rebuild, then we chase futures. It's actually insane how well this deal seems to fit for both sides longer term, even if things aren't completely apparent right now.
Most fans want and love a dynasty, but let's be honest. Calgary isn't going to accomplish that and even if they did, the process might take a decade. This especially not when Florida and Colorado and a few other teams are already looking to be well positioned in making those 5+ year contender teams with home grown talent; a few teams are also looking to be growing into their frames as well to be those 5+ year contenders (ie: Ottawa); and tank ultra teams that look to be impossible to chase to rock bottom.
If gambling is the metaphor, most fans love that roulette win. Treliving's plan (because ownership is always playoff mandate) seems to be 2-3 year roster retools and steady incremental movements upwards playing black jack. Those seem to be his restrictions and he's navigating them seemingly quite well so far IMO. NGL, I was crushed hearing that we were losing both JG and Tkachuk. I thought this coming season wouldn't be enjoyable at all. Treliving pulled an absolute rabbit out of his hat. I'm quite excited for this coming season. That on its own is its own victory lap as well.
