Who won the Huberdeau-matthew tkachuk trade?

[Donner]

Fairly even, but with them both being UFAs and likely leaving Calgary next offseason, it just delays the inevitable

I get that Calgary fans love this trade because they've replaced MT next season but in the long run this trade actually hurts them. If they had added a bunch of young players, they'd be better off long term

Or another way, if they told MT to suck it up and play one more season, the Flames would likely finish the exact same as they will with this trade

Under both options they lose all these guys next offseason

Short term win for Calgary

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I honestly can’t believe how the media is trying to spin this as a win-win. It’s a fleecing.

They bring in Huberdeau and Weegar and try to sign them. If they can’t? Trade them at the deadline for ridiculous returns.

You either are a much better team with those 2 going forward, or you get rid of them and begin maybe the fastest rebuild the world has ever seen.

You have any mock trades that help this world's fastest rebuild?

 

[Dieseloil]

Wait and see but Tkachuk is immensely overrated and without Gaudreau and Lindholm he’s gonna take a step back. So Calgary for that reason alone.

 

[NJ Devil]

Calgary, because they will never have to negotiate with the Tkachuk family again.

Never is a strong word

 

[TK 421]

Tkachuk is really good and now signed long term. Calgary has no chance to sign him and got a boatload of assets. Both teams won, the only loser here is St Louis as they lost their chance to get Tkachuk cheap or in free agency

Lol no, Blues dodged a bullet on Tkachuk coming here by having a virtually impossible cap situation to navigate in order to even fit him.

In short they had no shot of trading for him unless the Flames took 9 mil in cap back in the deal or were otherwise able to trade other contracts. As far as getting him in FA, they also did well there too with FLA signing him and removing the possibility of the Blues signing him to that 9.5 AAV deal. Tkachuk's don't do discounts so I don't buy that he would have given the team any kind of break.

Now we get to the part where the Blues didn't need him at all. Buchnevich, Tarasenko, Kyrou, Saad are the top 6 wingers here and both LW's (Buchnevich and Saad) were responsible for holding the reigning Norris Trophy winner to his least productive series point totals. So Tkachuk's offensive acumen, while nice, isn't really all that big a deal on a team like the Blues with plenty of scoring nor is his defensive acumen which is already covered by Buchnevich and Saad.

And finally we have the fact the Blues have drafted wingers with their last 3 1sts. LW Jake Neighbours is for sure in Stl this season and there's a very strong possibility that W Zach Bolduc is going to play past his 9 game trial. There's actually a 3rd line opening with Bolduc's name on it with Perron heading to Detroit. They just took a RW in Snuggerud this year so clearly it would be smarter for them to simply develop their own wingers instead of paying huge money for a winger because Stl is where he grew up.

Matthew is a great player but the Blues did very well to steer clear of any long term contract given all the different factors.

 

[lionsDen]

It’s Calgary I’d even move out those two hube and seater at the deadline

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Why do people assume Calgary will rebuild anytime soon? They always try to compete every year (for better or for worst)

 

[Seras]

Swapping Huberdeau and Weegar for Tkachuk makes Florida a worse team this coming season, past that who knows.

 

[HockeyWooot]

I think it’s even value wise. Florida gains an asset locked in for 8 years, there’s some risk in that though Tkachuk is going to have to continue to . They weren’t going to resign those two players so good they were able to get a great player coming back.

Calgary did exceptionally considering the circumstances, usually a player that wants out will be hard to recoup value on.

If they resign Huberdeau and/or Weegar, tilts more in their favour. If they aren’t keen to stay they can recoup assets at TDL also a good result.

I think both sides are happy with the outcome given their respective circumstances.

 

[pcruz]

Explain this massive win then?

Florida gets:

1 less roster player (1 less top 3 defender)
An additional loss in the roster due to cap

For this season alone, MT costs an astronomical amount more than what Calgary has to pay.

It's terrible roster management short term.
It's borderline long term roster management as well, since it includes futures

 

[JarvisFunk]

I mean it's Jonathan freaking Huberdeau. Have you seen his production in the last 4 years? His contract will age like Pat Kane or Steven Stamkos or Tavares.

I don't think Tavares' contract is aging particularly well... he's still got 3 years at 11m to go

 

[letsgrowcactus]

Does it matter for the trade whether Huberdeau and Weegar re-sign or not? I mean, obviously it matters to Calgary, but you do the trade with the information you have at the time. Right now, we really don't know.

Overall, I'd say Calgary definitely got more value, but that doesn't mean this can't be a win-win trade.

Calgary had to trade their young star. Ideally in that situation, you want another young star back (think Johansen for Jones). If that's not an option, then Calgary did the next best thing and got a real haul of assets back. Even if they won't re-sign, Huberdeau and Weegar are both UFAs on cheap contracts - Huberdeau at 50% retained at TDL carries a cap hit of just under 3m; Weegar at 50% is just under 1.7m; at TDL, that's practically nothing. One team won't give you three 1sts + additional prospects for Tkachuk (who even has that many assets?), but getting a 1st+prospect for Huberdeau and another for Weegar is absolutely realistic. Flip them both and you get a great jumpstart on your rebuild; turning Tkachuk into four pieces gives you a lot more flexibility and potential trade partners.

The problem is that Florida is not rebuilding; we're contending. Trading Huberdeau and Weegar together is not an option for most teams; separately, yes, but we need roster player(s) most of all. In a year, Weegar will demand more money than we can afford/are willing to give him. Letting him walk is lose him for nothing; TDL trade generally returns mostly picks and young prospects and is not a good option when contending. Huberdeau could have been re-signed, but not as a sign-and-trade, only in FLA, and he'll likely demand 10x8m, which is a lot for a guy about to turn 30. If you're not trading your players at the TDL, not signing them and not letting them walk for free, then what better option than an offseason trade this year?

Were there better trade options in terms of pure value? Possibly. Maybe you flip Huberdeau to one team, Weegar to another and get some mix of players/prospects/picks, which you keep as-is or use later to further adjust the roster... Or you overpay some on Tkachuk, get one of the best young players in the game who fits the team's needs like a glove, shake up the core and hope to acquire a D in FA/trade next offseason. But it's not like you can hit "pause" and wait if a better option comes up for Weegar and Huberdeau; 24 year old stars very rarely become available.

With Tkachuk, all of Florida's core is age 20-26, giving us a contending window of 6, maybe even 8 years provided we can sort out the D and that Lundell and Knight develop well. Time will tell how it turns out.

 

[WarriorofTime]

If Huberdeau walks, then it's Florida pretty easily.

 

[wetcoast]

I don't think Tavares' contract is aging particularly well... he's still got 3 years at 11m to go

Sure if you are looking at the "value" of the deal but JT is still a really good player.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Somehow all of Calgary, Florida, and Columbus got worse.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Tkachuk:

25 goals, 66 pts in 49 games

Huberdeau + Weegar :

10 goals, 33 pts in 47 games
+
1 goal, 15 pts in 49 games
=
11 goals, 48 pts in 96 games

This was suppose to be the year Calgary won the trade and some can argue Flames are currently in a playoff spot but they're fending off Avs and Preds, who both have games in hand.

Panthers are 8-4-2 in their last 14 games and roughly 4-5 pts out of a wildcard spot. Panthers only hope is Bobrovsky, Knight and Duclair come back and the team takes advantage of more home games vs road games left.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

I will admit, I thought flames won this trade, but it’s looking really good for florida
At face value it looked to be:
top line winger
top pair defencemen

For

top pairing winger

However, tkachuk has played very well for florida. I’ve watched a couple of florida games and always notice him making plays and generating offence. Huberdeau is having a rough year, but I do think he should bounce back to around a ppg player next year. Weegar looks nice, but he doesn’t make up for the difference between Huberdeau and tkachuk

moreover, florida has saved a good amount of money which, if used correctly, can improve the defence. This off-season and maybe next are going to be critical for the panthers success in the future half decade or so

 

[Dr Beinfest]

Tkachuk:

25 goals, 66 pts in 49 games

Huberdeau + Weegar :

10 goals, 33 pts in 47 games
+
1 goal, 15 pts in 49 games
=
11 goals, 48 pts in 96 games

This was suppose to be the year Calgary won the trade and some can argue Flames are currently in a playoff spot but they're fending off Avs and Preds, who both have games in hand.

Panthers are 8-4-2 in their last 14 games and roughly 4-5 pts out of a wildcard spot. Panthers only hope is Bobrovsky, Knight and Duclair come back and the team takes advantage of more home games vs road games left.

This is a lazy statistical presentation. If the Panthers included a scoreless grinder in the trade, would the denominator be 130 instead of 96?

Anyways, I still return to “this was an even trade” even if Tkachuck >>> Huberdeau right now. Picks and prospects were unnecessary from Florida. Anyone who says otherwise is biased or relying upon hindsight.

 

[Yepthatsme]

The bump was pretty biased towards Florida so here’s an update on how the Flames have been doing recently as well. Over the last 27 games or pretty much the last half of the season so far they’ve been playing at about a ~105 point pace. You go even more recently and they’re currently on a 11-5-3 stretch right now as well. What’s more impressive is they’re doing this with one of the leagues worst powerplays during that stretch. There’s hope that as chemistry improves the powerplay will improve (3 of the 5 guys on our top unit weren’t even in our organization at the start of last season), but Calgary didn’t even have that great of a powerplay the season prior either.

For the players individually, Huberdeau is beginning to look a lot more comfortable and the offense as increased as the season progressed. His ice time is goi g to be way down for a lot of his tenure here, as all of Calgary’s top 9 gets treated to 1st line minutes depending on which line is having the best game. Our anemic powerplay isn’t helping his totals either, nor having to carry around Lucic the last ~20 games. He’s bought in extremely well to Sutter’s system as well, I wasn’t expecting him to be as good defensively or engage in as many board battles as he has so far. Weegar has been much better than advertised though. His pairings with Tanev and with Zadorov have both been in the top 20 defensively statistically, and lately the offense has been starting to show that he had in Florida (8 points in his last 13 games with almost zero powerplay time). The 1st and Schwindt are both wildcards in this deal.

Overall I think both teams are happy with their hauls. I also think that both teams are going to keep getting better, and could have huge years as soon as next season.

 

[BB88]

The bump was pretty biased towards Florida so here’s an update on how the Flames have been doing recently as well. Over the last 27 games or pretty much the last half of the season so far they’ve been playing at about a ~105 point pace. You go even more recently and they’re currently on a 11-5-3 stretch right now as well. What’s more impressive is they’re doing this with one of the leagues worst powerplays during that stretch. There’s hope that as chemistry improves the powerplay will improve (3 of the 5 guys on our top unit weren’t even in our organization at the start of last season), but Calgary didn’t even have that great of a powerplay the season prior either.

For the players individually, Huberdeau is beginning to look a lot more comfortable and the offense as increased as the season progressed. His ice time is goi g to be way down for a lot of his tenure here, as all of Calgary’s top 9 gets treated to 1st line minutes depending on which line is having the best game. Our anemic powerplay isn’t helping his totals either, nor having to carry around Lucic the last ~20 games. He’s bought in extremely well to Sutter’s system as well, I wasn’t expecting him to be as good defensively or engage in as many board battles as he has so far. Weegar has been much better than advertised though. His pairings with Tanev and with Zadorov have both been in the top 20 defensively statistically, and lately the offense has been starting to show that he had in Florida (8 points in his last 13 games with almost zero powerplay time). The 1st and Schwindt are both wildcards in this deal.

Overall I think both teams are happy with their hauls. I also think that both teams are going to keep getting better, and could have huge years as soon as next season.

There’s no way Calgary can be happy.

Hubs is going to be on a monster contract and Treliving created them a very short window.

 

[Yepthatsme]

There’s no way Calgary can be happy.

Hubs is going to be on a monster contract and Treliving created them a very short window.

We are in a day and age where players like Hintz, Miller, Hertl, B. Tkachuk, Laine etc. are making 8+ million a season. Going into this season you would’ve been laughed out of the room for suggesting any of them hold a candle to Huberdeau. Unless you honestly believe the Huberdeau we are seeing today is as good as it gets for him which is extremely unlikely, he will be at worst over paid by 1-2 million per season until the back end of that contract. Calgary will pretty happily accept that window, especially considering everything is going wrong for the flames this year and theyre still sitting in a playoff spot.

 

[Pizza!Pizza!]

Poll needs to be restarted with a "even, but in a bad way" option.

 

[Da McBomb]

We are in a day and age where players like Hintz, Miller, Hertl, B. Tkachuk, Laine etc. are making 8+ million a season. Going into this season you would’ve been laughed out of the room for suggesting any of them hold a candle to Huberdeau. Unless you honestly believe the Huberdeau we are seeing today is as good as it gets for him which is extremely unlikely, he will be at worst over paid by 1-2 million per season until the back end of that contract. Calgary will pretty happily accept that window, especially considering everything is going wrong for the flames this year and theyre still sitting in a playoff spot.

Holding a candle to Huberdeau or not, I would take all of those players you mentioned and their contracts over Huberdeau and his contract today. Most of them (except Miller and Hertl) are much younger than Huberdeau and all of them are outscoring Huberdeau in the current season and still heading into their prime years.

I don't know how you can confidently say that Huberdeau will be at worst over paid by 1-2 million per season until the back end of that contract. We haven't even entered year 1 of his contract and right now he is on pace for like 57 points. Pointwise, currently he's in the same group of players like Zacha, Hronek, Kempe, Kubalik, and Killorn (who are all making around the $4 to $5 million range in terms of salary cap). So Huberdeau right now is playing at a level that would be $5 to $6 million below his $10.5 million contract. His career average is around 72 points per season and he is rounding the age of 30 now where his production will probably slow down and decrease, rather than increase.

 

[Yepthatsme]

Holding a candle to Huberdeau or not, I would take all of those players you mentioned and their contracts over Huberdeau and his contract today. Most of them (except Miller and Hertl) are much younger than Huberdeau and all of them are outscoring Huberdeau in the current season and still heading into their prime years.

I don't know how you can confidently say that Huberdeau will be at worst over paid by 1-2 million per season until the back end of that contract. We haven't even entered year 1 of his contract and right now he is on pace for like 57 points. Pointwise, currently he's in the same group of players like Zacha, Hronek, Kempe, Kubalik, and Killorn (who are all making around the $4 to $5 million range in terms of salary cap). So Huberdeau right now is playing at a level that would be $5 to $6 million below his $10.5 million contract. His career average is around 72 points per season and he is rounding the age of 30 now where his production will probably slow down and decrease, rather than increase.

Pretty much your entire post was addressed in the third sentence I wrote. If you actually believe Huberdeau’s current level of play is the new norm then yes his contract will be an albatross, there’s just reason to believe that’s unlikely. Using career average for a late bloomer is disingenuous, his previous 4 season paces are 92 points, 93 points, 91 points, and 118 points. What’s really interesting is how offensive stars have reacted to playing under Sutter for their first time. Gaudreau’s point per game jumped by 0.6 between his first and second season under Sutter. Tkachuk’s jumped by 0.54. If you just take the average of our 8 best offensive players, their totals jumped by 0.25 points per player on average. If he just improves by how much all of our offensive players did he is back to being point per game+, if he takes the jump Gaudreau and Tkachuk did he is back to being a 100+ point player.

Plenty of routes to see how his offense could jump as well. After trying him with all 3 of our top centers throughout the season he has finally found a home with Kadri seemingly, but they still haven’t found his RW yet (he was stuck with Lucic for the majority of the last 20 games). Also despite having the 7th best 5v5 offense since the start of November, Calgary has a bottom 1/4 powerplay on the season. 3 of the 5 players on our top unit weren’t with the team at the start of last year so it’s easy to see how chemistry could be an issue there. Then also just adjusting to playing the system, Calgary’s style is pretty demanding and isn’t very effective until played the perfect way.

 

[Da McBomb]

Pretty much your entire post was addressed in the third sentence I wrote. If you actually believe Huberdeau’s current level of play is the new norm then yes his contract will be an albatross, there’s just reason to believe that’s unlikely. Using career average for a late bloomer is disingenuous, his previous 4 season paces are 92 points, 93 points, 91 points, and 118 points. What’s really interesting is how offensive stars have reacted to playing under Sutter for their first time. Gaudreau’s point per game jumped by 0.6 between his first and second season under Sutter. Tkachuk’s jumped by 0.54. If you just take the average of our 8 best offensive players, their totals jumped by 0.25 points per player on average. If he just improves by how much all of our offensive players did he is back to being point per game+, if he takes the jump Gaudreau and Tkachuk did he is back to being a 100+ point player.

Plenty of routes to see how his offense could jump as well. After trying him with all 3 of our top centers throughout the season he has finally found a home with Kadri seemingly, but they still haven’t found his RW yet (he was stuck with Lucic for the majority of the last 20 games). Also despite having the 7th best 5v5 offense since the start of November, Calgary has a bottom 1/4 powerplay on the season. 3 of the 5 players on our top unit weren’t with the team at the start of last year so it’s easy to see how chemistry could be an issue there. Then also just adjusting to playing the system, Calgary’s style is pretty demanding and isn’t very effective until played the perfect way.

Well if you're basing your numbers off last year's off the chart production by the Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk line where they lead the whole league in points by a line... you might be overstating the impact of Sutter's second year with the players. For example, how do you explain Mangiapane and Lindholm's decreased numbers this year under Sutter compared to their numbers last year? Seems like you are just using career years by players in their contract years last season to predict the future success of Huberdeau's second year under Sutter. But hey, you might be right in predicting that Huberdeau's production increases next year.. but at the age of 30 already next year, I can see his production falling or staying the same as this year alot sooner than the backend of his contract as you predicted. I've watched Huberdeau closely this year and I haven't seen anything elite that warrants a 10.5 million contract for 8 years well into his 30's.