The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

[Mac n Gs]

Right, but what is GMJG actually going to do? Is he going to say: "okay, that's enough, let's turn it around", or is he going to continue the purge and ship out guys like Kreider, Hayes, Spooner, Namestnikov for more futures?

My thought process is there's no reason to do anything like that. That a new, good enough, core is in place. That we should try to compete next year.

Let's just do smart ****. It's not that hard.

I don’t think he’ll move all 4 of those guys. If anything, I only see Spooner being moved for futures so they don’t have to commit a contract to him. We’ll have a top-line in place with KZB, Hayes/Namestnikov at 2C and 3C and then can sign JVR to be the 2LW. Seems good to me with some tweaks to the defense.
That’s not even factoring in Lias or Chytil, plus the other picks they’ll bring in this June. If we luck out with a top-3 pick, there’s another NHL-ready player.

 

[silverfish]

I don’t think he’ll move all 4 of those guys. If anything, I only see Spooner being moved for futures so they don’t have to commit a contract to him. We’ll have a top-line in place with KZB, Hayes/Namestnikov at 2C and 3C and then can sign JVR to be the 2LW. Seems good to me with some tweaks to the defense.
That’s not even factoring in Lias or Chytil, plus the other picks they’ll bring in this June. If we luck out with a top-3 pick, there’s another NHL-ready player.

But why for futures? Why not for a guy like Klefbom? Depth for dearth.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Probably true.

I'm trying to give Gorton a chance but his tendency to purge first line centers and not really make the team any better is slightly alarming

He purged Eric Staal who looked done and the Stepan move wasn't made for 2018. Who else?

 

[Machinehead]

He purged Eric Staal who looked done and the Stepan move wasn't made for 2018. Who else?

Brassard. Three first line centers in two years.

The move wasn't made for 2018 but when exactly was it made for? If they pan out, Andersson and Zibanejad will be Stepan and Brassard part 2. Younger and cheaper, but not better. It's very bernmeister.

 

[silverfish]

He purged Eric Staal who looked done and the Stepan move wasn't made for 2018. Who else?

He only looked done because the coach tried to force him or Hayes on the wing where neither are good.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I don't think anybody thinks this roster is close but if we draft well and make good acquisitions, there's no reason it has to take longer than 2-3 years.

The roster @silverfish posted is very solid. It's attainable and we could see something similar on the ice this coming camp. Is it a Cup contender? No, but it's probably a playoff team. It's young and relatively cheap. They're not going away any time soon and we'll have time to infuse the high-end talent we need. In the meantime, the team will be fun and watchable, which is really the goal. If you need to win the Cup to have fun, then it's time to quit hockey.

Now I know what you'll say - we need to pick high to get the elite talent. Except we don't. Kopitar was taken 11th. Karlsson was taken 15th. Keith was taken 54th. Barzal was taken 16th. Leetch was take 9th, McDonagh was taken 12th, and Lundqvist was taken 205th. We're probably picking higher than all of those this year. Even a guy like Schiefele was taken 7th which I think is realistic for us this year.

Our lack of elite talent isn't because we've never blown it up. It's because we've blown picks and because we've outright traded all of our 1st's which we stopped doing. We've had Giroux on the board, we've had Tarasenko on the board, we've had Getzlaf on the board, we've had Burns on the board, we've had Josi on the board. We had elite talent and didn't select them. It isn't because we didn't have first overall. It's because we blew the picks.

If everyone stays in their spot (which is worst case scenario for us, since we're out of the top 3) we pick 10th as of today. Many of the mocks have Boqvist, Woo, Smith, and Dobson available in that spot. We could easily get our future #1D out of this draft without being in the Dahlin spot. We pick four more times in the top 50 after that in an absolutely loaded draft. If we don't get at least one high-end NHL player out of that, then we ****ed it up, and it isn't because we didn't tank.

Do I trust this front office to not blow the upcoming picks? Not sure yet. Am I disappointed that this is like the 4th time we've blown the roster up under AV and haven't removed the common denominator? Absolutely. I don't know if this is the right answer. But I do know that blowing it up and sucking for ten years is not the right answer.

You are intentionally distorting the case some of us have made, and its also the case that the GM seems to be making. He seemed very intent on blowing it up because we couldn't win the Cup, not because we couldn't make the playoffs.

What you stated can work, Boston is an example from this decade, and Detroit from the previous decade, but it also is a lower percentage strategy, and the numbers prove that out. The Kings spent three years picking in the top 5, Chicago also three years, Pittsburgh five years. I think pointing out good players not picked in the top 5 is just missing the point. No one has said thats the only way that works, but I think most would acknowledge thats the easiest way to become a Cup Contender and win the Stanley Cup. You are distorting the discussion to throw 10 years out there. No one here wants to rebuild for 10 years, but I also think the majority of fans and the GM think we can be bad for a few years, get some top 5 picks, and then hopefully turn it around.

Any team can always make a few trades, sign a free agent or two, and be decent. I think the team Silverfish suggested would probably make the playoffs, but obviously isn't good enough on the back-end to compete for anything. Might also not have the elite offensive player needed. If thats what you want, I won't tell you how you should think, but the GM seems to disagree.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I said 'keep blowing it up'

I'd classify trading McDonagh, Miller, Nash, Holden, Grabner, and Stepan as a 'start of blowing it up'.

No excuse for this team not to try and compete next year. None.

I think once you get rid of McDonagh, you gotta follow through. I wouldn't even necessarily disagree that the team could have turned it around if we had only gotten rid of Nash and Grabner, maybe sign Tavares, other top UFA's, but a team that already struggled defensively getting rid of a 1D doesn't align with contention or potentially even making the playoffs. Klefbom would be a good addition, but he's an addition you add to McDonagh, not in place of him. The team needed a 2D to be competitive, along with getting rid of AV and maybe one or two minor transactions, not to replace their 1D with a worse 1D.

 

[Mac n Gs]

But why for futures? Why not for a guy like Klefbom? Depth for dearth.

If that’s possible, then by all means please I hope Gorton can do it. I should’ve clarified that I meant futures/hockey trade. I don’t think that everyone needs to be moved for only picks and prospects

 

[Machinehead]

You are intentionally distorting the case some of us have made, and its also the case that the GM seems to be making. He seemed very intent on blowing it up because we couldn't win the Cup, not because we couldn't make the playoffs.

What you stated can work, Boston is an example from this decade, and Detroit from the previous decade, but it also is a lower percentage strategy, and the numbers prove that out. The Kings spent three years picking in the top 5, Chicago also three years, Pittsburgh five years. I think pointing out good players not picked in the top 5 is just missing the point. No one has said thats the only way that works, but I think most would acknowledge thats the easiest way to become a Cup Contender and win the Stanley Cup. You are distorting the discussion to throw 10 years out there. No one here wants to rebuild for 10 years, but I also think the majority of fans and the GM think we can be bad for a few years, get some top 5 picks, and then hopefully turn it around.

Any team can always make a few trades, sign a free agent or two, and be decent. I think the team Silverfish suggested would probably make the playoffs, but obviously isn't good enough on the back-end to compete for anything. Might also not have the elite offensive player needed. If thats what you want, I won't tell you how you should think, but the GM seems to disagree.

If we decide to deliberately be bad for a few years and then don't turn it around, guess what? We're bad for 10 years.

The GM may or may not disagree with me but I'd like to see where he said this was a long-term project or ever implied we were bottoming out.

He said we weren't good enough to win the Cup. That includes probably 25 teams and all of their situations are different. I don't see where Gorton said we're tanking.

 

[Machinehead]

Oh and I don't know how old everyone is or what they remember but I went from 2nd grade to high school not watching this team play a competitive hockey game. It was horrendous.

And I never got my Cup.

And the primary reason that ended was a 205th overall pick.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Brassard. Three first line centers in two years.

The move wasn't made for 2018 but when exactly was it made for? If they pan out, Andersson and Zibanejad will be Stepan and Brassard part 2. Younger and cheaper, but not better. It's very bernmeister.

Neither Brassard nor Stepan were anything better than average first line centers. Being younger and cheaper is a major plus. You can't just ignore that. Mika has introduced Brassard the last two seasons. Andersson, you have no clue what he will be.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

He only looked done because the coach tried to force him or Hayes on the wing where neither are good.

He was a third line quality player when Carolina.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

If we decide to deliberately be bad for a few years and then don't turn it around, guess what? We're bad for 10 years.

The GM may or may not disagree with me but I'd like to see where he said this was a long-term project or ever implied we were bottoming out.

He said we weren't good enough to win the Cup. That includes probably 25 teams and all of their situations are different. I don't see where Gorton said we're tanking.

Thats not true. If we don't turn it around after a few years, thats only a few years, not 10 years. Thats worst case scenario, and usually revolves around having the worst management in the league, like Edmonton. We can stop arguing this point because it seems like we don't agree about it. You want to watch a competitive team, others want to watch a team win a Stanley Cup. At this point, totally contradictory viewpoints with where this team is at.

I'm not going to read through Gorton transcripts, but I'd say he's planning to bottom out when he trades his 28 year old Captain who still had term and probably could've been re-signed for a reasonable deal. He also traded every other non-mid 20's or younger piece the team could've traded other than a player with a NMC who refuses to leave and Zuccarello who he actually reportedly did try to trade to Tampa instead of Miller, but they preferred Miller.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Oh and I don't know how old everyone is or what they remember but I went from 2nd grade to high school not watching this team play a competitive hockey game. It was horrendous.

And I never got my Cup.

And the primary reason that ended was a 205th overall pick.

Yeah, hope that doesn't happen again but those teams weren't rebuilding they were perpetually getting mediocre picks and not developing them.

 

[silverfish]

He was a third line quality player when Carolina.

Not really. He was just a guy operating 0.5 goals per 60 under his expected output.

His all situations ixG60 last year and this are basically exactly where they were in 15-16. Only difference is, he shot around expected last year, and is shooting way over expected this year. (Corsica.Hockey)

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Not really. He was just a guy operating 0.5 goals per 60 under his expected output.

His all situations ixG60 last year and this are basically exactly where they were in 15-16. Only difference is, he shot around expected last year, and is shooting way over expected this year. (Corsica.Hockey)

Either way, he didn't pan out for us. Should AV have gone instead? Maybe, but whatever the circumstance it didn't work out for us. And the Brassard and Stepan trades are TBD right now. Us getting younger is nothing to scoff at like machinehead is doing. And neither player was great as a 1st liner.

 

[silverfish]

Either way, he didn't pan out for us. Should AV have gone instead? Maybe, but whatever the circumstance it didn't work out for us. And the Brassard and Stepan trades are TBD right now. Us getting younger is nothing to scoff at like machinehead is doing. And neither player was great as a 1st liner.

Right but the whole idea is now that we have so much more information at our disposal, it's easier to separate who is declining vs who is slumping. Staal was still pushing play in the right direction and wracking up ixG totals. What was an obvious 'buy low' moment turned into a missed opportunity.

The fact that AV wasn't fired after the Pens series is a tragedy on its own, but his constant misuse of players is just something that is impossible to fathom he'll keep getting away with.

Michael Grabner is going to owe AV a couple million dollars on July 1st this year, but that's about it. Everyone else, AV owes money to.

 

[silverfish]

 

[Machinehead]

People like to talk about the Yankees. Hey they rebuilt, so should we! Except the Yankees never tanked. They won 84 games in 2016. They pretty much did what silverfish and I are saying the Rangers should do. But if you wanna talk about the Yankees, then let's talk about what they actually did and did right.

They sold like crazy at the 2016 deadline, but after the purge, they came into 2017 committed to fielding the best team possible, and look what they did. Now you can say "but the Rangers don't have this or that, no McDonagh, etc." Right, but the Yankees didn't have a RF until they had the best RF in baseball overnight. They didn't have a CF until Aaron Hicks became a 7.1 WAR player (over 162) overnight. They didn't have a legitimate ace until Severino became one overnight. Sure, the Yankees got lucky and beat their own timeline, but they were prepared for the best case scenario and were within striking distance of turning it into a title. Things happen that you can't predict.

Look at some of the contending teams this year who didn't have lottery picks: Vegas, Nashville, Winnipeg, Boston. William Karlsson just happened one day. Roman Josi just happened. Schieffele just happened. McAvoy just happened. Hell, Tampa has had high picks but they're in the position they're in this year because Nikita Kucherov just happened. The Blues were comfortable selling on Stastny because Brayden Schenn became a high-end center overnight. I know the Islanders suck, but Mat Barzal is a future Hart candidate out of f***ing nowhere. Things happen that you can't predict.

Ok, maybe Edmonton is a shitty example because their mess is multi-faceted. Look at Buffalo. They landed a franchise talent in Jack Eichel but they were so busy being an AHL team for three years that they now have absolutely nothing to put him with. I don't want that to happen to us if the chips fall right. What if in two years Chytil and Andersson are Thornton and Bergeron, and we sold everything else?

You can't sit there and tell me with certainty that Filip Chytil doesn't put up 70 points in the NHL next year. Is it likely? Definitely not. Neither was Aaron Judge. Things happen that you can't predict. Be ready for them. Have an NHL team on the ice in case it happens. If nothing does happen, I don't think we're going to be so absurdly good that we don't get a very high quality draft pick, and if we want, we can sell again next February for another first, but cross that bridge when you come to it.

 

[Machinehead]

And speaking of things just happening, at 3.5 AAV we should have prepared ourselves for Eric Staal to happen.

Absolutely no excuse on that one. It's right up there with the dumbest shit this team has done in my lifetime.

Extending Girardi, trading Savard to move up two picks in the draft, letting Stralman walk, and letting Staal walk. The Filthy Four.

 

[Machinehead]

Shifting gears, as my own little experiment, once the regular season is over, I'm thinking about averaging out the rankings for the 16 playoff teams in CF%, xGF%, and K-rating, and seeing how that average stacks up as far as predicting playoff series.

Should be fun.

 

[silverfish]

Stepan pacing for 53 on Arizona, a team that has scored 29 less goals than the Rangers have this year, and people are still going to tell you he's declining.

lol

 

[Machinehead]

Stepan pacing for 53 on Arizona, a team that has scored 29 less goals than the Rangers have this year, and people are still going to tell you he's declining.

lol

Spooner pacing for 59 and people are still going to tell you we should trade him for a 2nd and a B prospect.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Stepan pacing for 53 on Arizona, a team that has scored 29 less goals than the Rangers have this year, and people are still going to tell you he's declining.

lol

Fewer

Stop bringing up Stepan. It makes me sad. I spent hours arguing with dopes that said he was declining because they couldn’t realize his shooting% tanked last year.

 

[East Coast Bias]

The Yankees also buried $50m in bad contracts and just replaced the players. Or literally trash cash for players. Baseball is a bad comparison in every sense. It's apples and oranges.

Regardless of the latest newsletter, or what leaks publicly about Dolan's support, Gorton doesn't have 5-6 years.

If this takes 5-6 years and ticket renewals and tv ratings are impacted, I don't care what Dolan says now. He will care. And if the Rangers suck in 3 years and Gorton is still selling a long-term rebuild, he's going to get fired.