The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

[Irishguy42]

Also as an off-topic sidenote, I love reading people's predictions on what the roster is going to look like in the future and it only includes players currently in the organization, as if we never sign any FAs or make trades.

Oh, and all the prospects magically pan out. Lindgren, Rykov, Hajek are all locks. Hope so!

Happens with pretty much every fanbase, tbh. This is not just a HFNYR thing.

 

[silverfish]

Happens with pretty much every fanbase, tbh.

I want us to be better

 

[Irishguy42]

I want us to be better

I too want to be "the most selfish and unrealistic about our prospect" fanbase. They are all beautiful stars!

Sign me up!

 

[Mac n Gs]

Also as an off-topic sidenote, I love reading people's predictions on what the roster is going to look like in the future and it only includes players currently in the organization, as if we never sign any FAs or make trades.

Oh, and all the prospects magically pan out. Lindgren, Rykov, Hajek are all locks. Hope so!

Drives me nuts too because no one ever factors in roster turnover or players not developing. The way I see it, we have two new guys that I’m very comfortable calling future NHL players, not including where they play in the lineup, in Hajek and Howden. The upward trends are there and at worst I think they’ll a third line C and third pairing D. I like Lindgren, but I’m not sold yet. Same with Rykov coming over. There’s still the obvious trades we’re waiting to see and FA signings to backfill the org.

I agree that I want Klefbom

 

[Ghost of jas]

Drives me nuts too because no one ever factors in roster turnover or players not developing. The way I see it, we have two new guys that I’m very comfortable calling future NHL players, not including where they play in the lineup, in Hajek and Howden. The upward trends are there and at worst I think they’ll a third line C and third pairing D. I like Lindgren, but I’m not sold yet. Same with Rykov coming over. There’s still the obvious trades we’re waiting to see and FA signings to backfill the org.

I agree that I want Klefbom

You can identify players that you think can be a part of the team going forward. But, it is all a bunch of variables. Which is why the more good picks and prospects you accumulate, the more chances you have to hit on them. And, for all we know, in a few years, some of these players will end being dealt. To me, it remains all about acquiring assets and maximizing the value. Identify your core, build around it and use your depth to maintain it.

 

[Machinehead]

Also as an off-topic sidenote, I love reading people's predictions on what the roster is going to look like in the future and it only includes players currently in the organization, as if we never sign any FAs or make trades.

Oh, and all the prospects magically pan out. Lindgren, Rykov, Hajek are all locks. Hope so!

Also, I love how everyone assumes the rebuild is going to last.

Somebody on the trade board proposed buying out Bobby Ryan as part of a deal with Ottawa because "we can afford to pay 1.75m in dead space for the next 8 years, we're rebuilding anyway." 8 YEARS!!! I'm going to be 35 in 8 years. I ain't got time for this team to plan on being non-competitive for that long.

Go back at our 2015 roster less than three short years ago, and tell me McDonagh, Girardi, Stepan, Hagelin, Brassard, Miller, Klein, and Nash would all be gone.

We could be a Cup contender in three years. We could also be the 32nd best team. It happens so quick.

How did he not in 2016?

EDIT: Nevermind, I got it.

The data is at even strength. Hank's struggles against Pittsburgh were on the PK. .536 save percentage shorthanded. Yes, .536.

At all strengths, that is the only season he was negative, which is still ridiculously impressive.

 

[silverfish]

Also, I love how everyone assumes the rebuild is going to last.

Somebody on the trade board proposed buying out Bobby Ryan as part of a deal with Ottawa because "we can afford to pay 1.75m in dead space for the next 8 years, we're rebuilding anyway." 8 YEARS!!! I'm going to be 35 in 8 years. I ain't got time for this team to plan on being non-competitive for that long.

Go back at our 2015 roster less than three short years ago, and tell me McDonagh, Girardi, Stepan, Hagelin, Brassard, Miller, Klein, and Nash would all be gone.

We could be a Cup contender in three years. We could also be the 32nd best team. It happens so quick.

lol 8 years. What a disaster.

I mean, there's no excuse for this to be a long rebuild. Honestly? The rebuild should be over. Why can't we compete next year? Why do we have to keep blowing it up? I don't get that mentality.

How did he not in 2016?

Quick memory is that this is the year that Hank faced infinitely more med/high danger shots than low danger. That entire series was absolute shit and the coach came out of it unscathed lol

5v5 only could also be helping Hank, here. The Rangers were a 3.39 xGA60 in those 5 games against the Pens (all situations, Corsica.Hockey)

 

[Machinehead]

lol 8 years. What a disaster.

I mean, there's no excuse for this to be a long rebuild. Honestly? The rebuild should be over. Why can't we compete next year? Why do we have to keep blowing it up? I don't get that mentality.

The flip Spooner/Namestnikov posts are hilarious. They're in their 20's.

With any other coach this is probably a playoff team this year. A contender, no. Better than New Jersey, Florida, and Columbus, yes.

Speaking of coaching, and speaking of Columbus, top ten in CF% and just outside the top ten in xGF%. And look their roster - honestly, look at it. Never understood why people think it's so impressive. They manage.

 

[silverfish]

The flip Spooner/Namestnikov posts are hilarious. They're in their 20's.

With any other coach this is probably a playoff team this year. A contender, no. Better than New Jersey, Florida, and Columbus, yes.

Speaking of coaching, and speaking of Columbus, top ten in CF% and just outside the top ten in xGF%. And look their roster - honestly, look at it. Never understood why people think it's so impressive. They manage.

I mean, I'd flip Spooner/Namestnikov because we actually have depth at that position and these guys have value, so we can flip depth for dearth. Klefbom for one of those guys.

 

[Bob Richards]

We could be a Cup contender in three years. We could also be the 32nd best team. It happens so quick.

I'm trying not to take it for granted as much as I used to. I still use the 2012 team as a various benchmark but we are at a point where almost none of those guys still play for the team lol.

Kreider, Zuccarello, Staal and Lundqvist. That's it. Hockey time's a bitch like that.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I fall somewhere in the middle of the rebuild argument, although I guess I lean more towards the rebuild side

I acknowledge that you need elite talent to win. In today's NHL, you can't trade (for the most part anyways) for elite talent. You have to draft and develop it from within the organization. The assets the acquired at this deadline are good, but none of them leads to an elite player at the moment unless a lot goes right (i.e. winning the lottery/getting in the top 3), or Gordie makes a home run of a pick and they turn into an elite player down the line.

I also acknowledge that Henrik's time is running out, and I so badly want him to win a cup. With the correct moves they could be competitive next year, but I don't know if that would lead to long term success, or just another middle of the road team that we've had before, who has a chance, but lacks those top end players needed to win. With a better coach the last two years, this team probably could have gotten to the finals, maybe won it all

So I dunno

Gorton doesn't seem like he would want to take on long term issues and big contracts like Ryan. People automatically assume that, "oh we took Beleskey back, let's start taking other people's garbage for assets". But there's a big difference between taking back 50% of Beleskey for another 2 years, and taking back Ryan for another 8

Cap flexibility is the name of the game going forward, and like @Machinehead said, these things change so fast. This team could be back to the playoffs in two years, or be the worst team in the league

 

[silverfish]

KZB
JvR - Hayes - Zucc
Nash with some sort of Chytil/Andersson combo
Who cares - Who cares - Fast

Klefbom - Shattenkirk
Skjei - Smith
Gilly - ADA
Franson

Hank
Who cares

^^ That team f***s

 

[Machinehead]

Smith, Gilmour, and ADA just penciled into the lineup without nine pages of them not knowing how to defend.

That's why I love this thread.

 

[Machinehead]

I mean, I'd flip Spooner/Namestnikov because we actually have depth at that position and these guys have value, so we can flip depth for dearth. Klefbom for one of those guys.

If we're trading them to make the team better instead of for futures, sure.

 

[silverfish]

If we're trading them to make the team better instead of for futures, sure.

Oh, yes. Dumping Spooner/Namestnikov to continue the rebuild would be dumb and I would not be for it.

 

[DanielBrassard]

KZB
JvR - Hayes - Zucc
Nash with some sort of Chytil/Andersson combo
Who cares - Who cares - Fast

Klefbom - Shattenkirk
Skjei - Smith
Gilly - ADA
Franson

Hank
Who cares

^^ That team ****s

That team doesn't even have a full lineup lol. I think that team looks better on paper than it does it actuality. The bottom-4 defense has a ton of questions, including if Smith can actually rebound and even play in the NHL. Gimour and ADA still have a lot to prove. Still missing a top-end forward as well.

 

[silverfish]

That team doesn't even have a full lineup lol. I think that team looks better on paper than it does it actuality. The bottom-4 defense has a ton of questions, including if Smith can actually rebound and even play in the NHL. Gimour and ADA still have a lot to prove. Still missing a top-end forward as well.

We have enough data on Smith to know that he's probably a middle-pairing guy under a different coach.

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

Smith, Gilmour, and ADA just penciled into the lineup without nine pages of them not knowing how to defend.

That's why I love this thread.

Not to mention Shattenkirk definitely has weaknesses there. Gap control is an issue with him.

 

[Machinehead]

Not to mention Shattenkirk definitely has weaknesses there. Gap control is an issue with him.

On the other hand, player a top pair RHD with gap control problems has never been an issue for this team

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

Possession game and highly skilled players seem to be with this team lacks most. A new coach that will actually implement a system stemmed from puck possession and more of a cycle game would be fantastic. Controlled breakouts, etc. A zone defensive system needs to also be ingrained into it all. A huge systematic change would go a ways for this team, imo.

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

On the other hand, player a top pair RHD with gap control problems has never been an issue for this team

This is true. I'll still take Shatty any year of the century over Girardi though.

 

[Machinehead]

Possession game and highly skilled players seem to be with this team lacks most. A new coach that will actually implement a system stemmed from puck possession and more of a cycle game would be fantastic. Controlled breakouts, etc. A zone defensive system needs to also be ingrained into it all. A huge systematic change would go a ways for this team, imo.

Not to mention shooting.

Watching how often Gilmour, Pionk, and even O'Gara fire the puck makes it clear that AV eventually coaches guys out of shooting, particularly defensemen.

Any attempt to bring in volume shooters -Stalberg, Pirri, Letteri, Shattenkirk to an extent- has been a disaster.

Shattenkirk had 5 goals the first month. He still has 5 goals. His iCF rates are tanking compared to career average.

 

[Bob Richards]

In his first 20 career regular season games Jimmy Vesey had 12 points.

In the 124 since he has 34.

I'm just fascinated tracking his stuff because his start here was so cool.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Drives me nuts too because no one ever factors in roster turnover or players not developing. The way I see it, we have two new guys that I’m very comfortable calling future NHL players, not including where they play in the lineup, in Hajek and Howden. The upward trends are there and at worst I think they’ll a third line C and third pairing D. I like Lindgren, but I’m not sold yet. Same with Rykov coming over. There’s still the obvious trades we’re waiting to see and FA signings to backfill the org.

I agree that I want Klefbom

Why wouldn't Rykov come over?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Why can't we compete next year? Why do we have to keep blowing it up? I don't get that mentality.

When have we blown it up before?

The point of doing it is to acquire elite talent that will make us a Cup Contender eventually. The reason we are doing it in the first place is because our talent has deteriorated. The GM said it himself that he didn't see this team's results as anything sustainable when Hank was winning games himself. There has been a downward trend with this team for years.

Is it all on AV? Thats what it would be if you are saying we can compete next year or that the roster we started the season with could compete for the CUp. Is the talent there to be a Cup Contender without AV? I could at the very least understand the argument when we had McDonagh, Nash, Miller, Grabner, Holden, but now we are icing O'Gara, Holland, McLeod, these are not NHL'ers. Jimmy Sweepstakes is on our second line, Marc Staal is our #2D. We aren't a good team right now. Could they turn it over in the offseason and make it a more competitive team? Maybe, but right now this team sucks. They aren't close to contending for the Stanley Cup.