The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

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SnowblindNYR

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Call me crazy, but honestly, I'm going to be slightly upset if the Rangers win the draft lottery. I'll get over it pretty quickly, I'm sure... but something about positive reinforcement for bad management just seems wrong.

Instead of being chastised for putting a bad team together, Gorton looks great for drafting Dahlin under his watch.

Just doesn't sit right.

But if they win the draft lottery it'll be in part due to an intentional strategic direction Gorton took the team into.
 

silverfish

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But if they win the draft lottery it'll be in part due to an intentional strategic direction Gorton took the team into.
If your intentional strategic direction is to give your team a 3-5% shot at the top pick, your intentional strategic direction sucks.... IMO. Just because you get lucky doesn't mean you were right.

Better lucky than good? Sure.
Having Dahlin on this roster? Incredible.
Rewarding people for bad performance? Nah. f*** that. This season should be a slight against management, Dahlin or no Dahlin.
 

GeorgeKaplan

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Dec 19, 2011
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If your intentional strategic direction is to give your team a 3-5% shot at the top pick, your intentional strategic direction sucks.... IMO. Just because you get lucky doesn't mean you were right.

Better lucky than good? Sure.
Having Dahlin on this roster? Incredible.
Rewarding people for bad performance? Nah. **** that. This season should be a slight against management, Dahlin or no Dahlin.
I mean, if anything, the way the lottery is set up now is further from rewarding poor performance than it ever has been
 

silverfish

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I mean, if anything, the way the lottery is set up now is further from rewarding poor performance than it ever has been
I understand the concept in general. I think in a perfect world, I'd prefer the gold standard that Micah McCurdy came up with. Basically, once you're mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, the points you start accruing are for draft position. I think that's a good idea.

I just don't want it to get lost that this is the worst season of Rangers hockey since the lockout. That the team from top to bottom was essentially fundamentally broken. We will lose sight of that, or even worse, praise it, if this team eeks its way to a 5% miracle.

I want better for my team.
 

GeorgeKaplan

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Dec 19, 2011
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I understand the concept in general. I think in a perfect world, I'd prefer the gold standard that Micah McCurdy came up with. Basically, once you're mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, the points you start accruing are for draft position. I think that's a good idea.

I just don't want it to get lost that this is the worst season of Rangers hockey since the lockout. That the team from top to bottom was essentially fundamentally broken. We will lose sight of that, or even worse, praise it, if this team eeks its way to a 5% miracle.

I want better for my team.
I don’t disagree with any of that really, and I definitely would rather have a Red Wings-esque run of being a competitive team. I didn’t have super high expectations going into either the last two seasons, I expected them to be a bubble team and I guess they kind of still are.

To me, acquiring more first round picks and prospects that have a few extra years of development shows that they have more of a plan of refilling the organization with a lot of assets to be able to use as players or as currency than the general idea of this boards “hopefully we win the lottery” thing. There has been reports of them trying to trade up the past two years, even as far as having deals in place for picks with the other team backing out at the last second because of the way the draft shook out.

The only reeeal gripe I have with Gorton was basically going into this season without any real depth. I forget which insider said it, but during one of the trade deadline shows they said the call to blow everything up this season was initiated by Dolan rather than Gorton and Co. Before that, the plan seemed to be try and make the playoffs but turn the guys who are getting closer to 30 into guys around 22 who are still progressing so they can really contend again in 2-3 years
 

silverfish

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I don’t disagree with any of that really, and I definitely would rather have a Red Wings-esque run of being a competitive team. I didn’t have super high expectations going into either the last two seasons, I expected them to be a bubble team and I guess they kind of still are.

To me, acquiring more first round picks and prospects that have a few extra years of development shows that they have more of a plan of refilling the organization with a lot of assets to be able to use as players or as currency than the general idea of this boards “hopefully we win the lottery” thing. There has been reports of them trying to trade up the past two years, even as far as having deals in place for picks with the other team backing out at the last second because of the way the draft shook out.

The only reeeal gripe I have with Gorton was basically going into this season without any real depth. I forget which insider said it, but during one of the trade deadline shows they said the call to blow everything up this season was initiated by Dolan rather than Gorton and Co. Before that, the plan seemed to be try and make the playoffs but turn the guys who are getting closer to 30 into guys around 22 who are still progressing so they can really contend again in 2-3 years
Right, I don't disagree with any of this really. My main beef is that winning the lottery will erase this or justify it. I won't be mad that Dahlin is a Ranger, I'll be upset that people will forget just how atrocious this year truly was, and that the people responsible for it, in the end, were rewarded.
 

Ghost of jas

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Feb 27, 2002
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Right, I don't disagree with any of this really. My main beef is that winning the lottery will erase this or justify it. I won't be mad that Dahlin is a Ranger, I'll be upset that people will forget just how atrocious this year truly was, and that the people responsible for it, in the end, were rewarded.

If AV is fired, (which I anticipate happening), then he's not getting rewarded. And, when ownership is leading the charge to tear it down and rebuild it, I'm not sure the others you want punished are going to be.
 
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Oscar Lindberg

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Our defense is gonna look real good next season when we acquire Klefbom for nothing and win Dahlin

I also wonder how much Gorton saving face has to do with not firing AV during the season. Him handing AV an extension and then firing him shortly after doesn’t look great.

Weird they chose to blow up half the roster before a coaching change but who knows
 

JimmyG89

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May 1, 2010
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I understand the concept in general. I think in a perfect world, I'd prefer the gold standard that Micah McCurdy came up with. Basically, once you're mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, the points you start accruing are for draft position. I think that's a good idea.

I just don't want it to get lost that this is the worst season of Rangers hockey since the lockout. That the team from top to bottom was essentially fundamentally broken. We will lose sight of that, or even worse, praise it, if this team eeks its way to a 5% miracle.

I want better for my team.

Agreed, this is an interesting idea.

I agree that the team was fundamentally broken, but I can only blame Gorton fully for the bad moves that he has personally made. The Staal and Girardi deals are on Sather. He had final say. Moving Stepan, albeit for Andersson and DeAngelo, hurt the immediate and some of the future, if they cannot replace him internally or externally this summer. Hayes seemingly taking a step forward helps with this.

Everyone knew this team wasn't going to be as good as the previous teams, but if the end result of this season was:
  • Management realizing AV is not a good coach and moves on
  • High end talent added to the prospect pool for the 2nd straight offseason
  • Overall depth being added to the prospect pool
  • Capital (Cap Space and assets) being added to our system
That would be 4 steps in the right direction. While there was many steps backwards, you have to have something begin the steps forward.

The reality is that this team without Shattenkirk, plus Stepan, wasn't going to compete for a cup. If #1 doesn't happen this offseason, #2-4 are all for naught as AV will waste those things with poor decisions, a poor system, and his hands off approach.
 

SnowblindNYR

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If your intentional strategic direction is to give your team a 3-5% shot at the top pick, your intentional strategic direction sucks.... IMO. Just because you get lucky doesn't mean you were right.

Better lucky than good? Sure.
Having Dahlin on this roster? Incredible.
Rewarding people for bad performance? Nah. **** that. This season should be a slight against management, Dahlin or no Dahlin.

Then who should get Dahlin? Tampa?
 
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Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
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If your intentional strategic direction is to give your team a 3-5% shot at the top pick, your intentional strategic direction sucks.... IMO. Just because you get lucky doesn't mean you were right.

Better lucky than good? Sure.
Having Dahlin on this roster? Incredible.
Rewarding people for bad performance? Nah. **** that. This season should be a slight against management, Dahlin or no Dahlin.

Same thing for coaches.

Beating Montreal? Awesome
Second round? Fun.

But then AV gets rewarded for his goaltender dragging him kicking and screaming into the second round, even though AV single-handedly kept us out of the ECF. Which is probably good because if we had dragged him there, he'd have even more job security.

Sometimes you have to look past W-L for coaches and look past big acquisitions for GM's. It's only a part of the picture.

Gorton gets a ton of credit for his 2018 deadline, which overall, I liked, sure. But all he's doing is trying to dig us out of a hole that he put us in to begin with with terrible 2014, 2015, and 2016 offseasons, and not firing AV during the 2017 edition.
 

East Coast Bias

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Pssst. Convincing the owner that rebuilding is the way to go is also job security. You're just eliminating all expectations for a couple years.
 

Ghost of jas

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Same thing for coaches.

Beating Montreal? Awesome
Second round? Fun.

But then AV gets rewarded for his goaltender dragging him kicking and screaming into the second round, even though AV single-handedly kept us out of the ECF. Which is probably good because if we had dragged him there, he'd have even more job security.

Sometimes you have to look past W-L for coaches and look past big acquisitions for GM's. It's only a part of the picture.

Gorton gets a ton of credit for his 2018 deadline, which overall, I liked, sure. But all he's doing is trying to dig us out of a hole that he put us in to begin with with terrible 2014, 2015, and 2016 offseasons, and not firing AV during the 2017 edition.


Sather was still running the team in 2014 and 2015. Sather is the one who continues to give gifts to his former team in Edmonton, hence the Talbot deal. Sather's also the one who left the team without #1 for four years. If you're indiciting Gorton for being a part of the management team, that's a different story. But, the final decision was Sather's. I don't see as much of problem with the 2016 off-season. Gorton pushed things in a more analytics-driven direction by signing both Clendening and Pirri. (It's the coach who didn't use them properly.) And, moving Brassard for Zibanejad remains a win in my book. And, in retrospect the trade for Eric Staal and it's failure falls at the feet of the coach, once again. Gorton's biggest indictment remains keeping this coach. The re-signing of Girardi and Staal took place under the direction of Sather. (Again, he had final say.) It was those two moves that prevented the re-signing of Stralman and Yandle.
 
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coz21

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Feb 10, 2010
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2013 Boston Red Sox

Oh you mean after they fired Bobby Valentine who was completely washed by that point (After literally running the bus over Tito which was a f***ing travesty and also completely typical Boston)? Or are you perhaps talking about when they hired Dave Dombrowski in 2015? I honestly don't understand why you brought up a team that 1. Didn't fire their analytically driven GM the year before the won the WS, and 2. Remains one of the most analytically driven teams in sports, let alone baseball even after hiring DD.

If you're talking about not firing AV after 2016 it's not analogous at all. Baseball is a completely different sport and head coaches/managers play very different roles.
 

Mac n Gs

Gorton plz
Jan 17, 2014
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Brace yourselves for TRADE KREIDER season. Seems brilliant for a team that wants to build around size, speed, and character.
 
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Mac n Gs

Gorton plz
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God, I really, really hope this doesn't happen.

Is everyone available for the right price? Sure. Should we be actively shopping everyone? Probably not.
Exactly. I’m cool with making hockey trades, but how many people (that are realistically available) are legitimate upgrades on Kreider? I’m sure we’re going to see some variaion of Puljujarvi and a pick ad nauseum
 
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