The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

[Mac n Gs]

Why wouldn't Rykov come over?

Because of prior concerns regarding that issue. I’m being cautious regarding him because I don’t want to get my hopes up too much. I think he’s a very good prospect, and only didn’t include him as a “certain” NHLer because of that issue. Otherwise, I see him as a 2nd pairing guy

 

[SA16]

This team can easily be competitive next year. The most annoying are the "Why would JT sign here since we're rebuilding" Well first off the team already has a bunch of pieces. Second they have a great goalie which his Islander teams don't. Third if he signed here then that would massively accelerate the rebuild and they'd be good next year right away. Fourth they have the cap space to make it happen if it's possible. Additionally if he's looking to sign somewhere to win immediately (ignoring most of those teams don't have the cap space) that should theoretically immediately rule out the Islanders since they're even worse than the Rangers this year (despite people constantly stating they're in a playoff race) yet that's never mentioned.

Sorry for the wall of text reminiscent of a specific other poster I appear to have forgotten to use paragraphs.

 

[Mac n Gs]

This team can easily be competitive next year. The most annoying are the "Why would JT sign here since we're rebuilding" Well first off the team already has a bunch of pieces. Second they have a great goalie which his Islander teams don't. Third if he signed here then that would massively accelerate the rebuild and they'd be good next year right away. Fourth they have the cap space to make it happen if it's possible. Additionally if he's looking to sign somewhere to win immediately (ignoring most of those teams don't have the cap space) that should theoretically immediately rule out the Islanders since they're even worse than the Rangers this year (despite people constantly stating they're in a playoff race) yet that's never mentioned.

Sorry for the wall of text reminiscent of a specific other poster I appear to have forgotten to use paragraphs.

Hell, this team should have been competitive this season under a different coach. That's why I don't get why people think they're destined for a Buffalo/Edmonton style tank. We already have pieces in place, young cost-controlled players to add, and picks to add for the future.

Just get this team a new coach first, and move from there.

 

[Machinehead]

When have we blown it up before?

The point of doing it is to acquire elite talent that will make us a Cup Contender eventually. The reason we are doing it in the first place is because our talent has deteriorated. The GM said it himself that he didn't see this team's results as anything sustainable when Hank was winning games himself. There has been a downward trend with this team for years.

Is it all on AV? Thats what it would be if you are saying we can compete next year or that the roster we started the season with could compete for the Cup. Is the talent there to be a Cup Contender without AV? I could at the very least understand the argument when we had McDonagh, Nash, Miller, Grabner, Holden, but now we are icing O'Gara, Holland, McLeod, these are not NHL'ers. Jimmy Sweepstakes is on our second line, Marc Staal is our #2D. We aren't a good team right now. Could they turn it over in the offseason and make it a more competitive team? Maybe, but right now this team sucks. They aren't close to contending for the Stanley Cup.

I don't think anybody thinks this roster is close but if we draft well and make good acquisitions, there's no reason it has to take longer than 2-3 years.

The roster @silverfish posted is very solid. It's attainable and we could see something similar on the ice this coming camp. Is it a Cup contender? No, but it's probably a playoff team. It's young and relatively cheap. They're not going away any time soon and we'll have time to infuse the high-end talent we need. In the meantime, the team will be fun and watchable, which is really the goal. If you need to win the Cup to have fun, then it's time to quit hockey.

Now I know what you'll say - we need to pick high to get the elite talent. Except we don't. Kopitar was taken 11th. Karlsson was taken 15th. Keith was taken 54th. Barzal was taken 16th. Leetch was take 9th, McDonagh was taken 12th, and Lundqvist was taken 205th. We're probably picking higher than all of those this year. Even a guy like Schiefele was taken 7th which I think is realistic for us this year.

Our lack of elite talent isn't because we've never blown it up. It's because we've blown picks and because we've outright traded all of our 1st's which we stopped doing. We've had Giroux on the board, we've had Tarasenko on the board, we've had Getzlaf on the board, we've had Burns on the board, we've had Josi on the board. We had elite talent and didn't select them. It isn't because we didn't have first overall. It's because we blew the picks.

If everyone stays in their spot (which is worst case scenario for us, since we're out of the top 3) we pick 10th as of today. Many of the mocks have Boqvist, Woo, Smith, and Dobson available in that spot. We could easily get our future #1D out of this draft without being in the Dahlin spot. We pick four more times in the top 50 after that in an absolutely loaded draft. If we don't get at least one high-end NHL player out of that, then we f***ed it up, and it isn't because we didn't tank.

Do I trust this front office to not blow the upcoming picks? Not sure yet. Am I disappointed that this is like the 4th time we've blown the roster up under AV and haven't removed the common denominator? Absolutely. I don't know if this is the right answer. But I do know that blowing it up and sucking for ten years is not the right answer.

 

[Machinehead]

Matter of fact, unless we get Dahlin, I'd prefer to pick 6-12 than win the lottery.

Am I going to be upset if we get Tkachuk or Zadina? Definitely not. But we need a defenseman.

6-12 is an absolute orgy of good defensemen. I've never seen anything like it. If there was ever a draft to trade McDonagh prior to, this was the draft.

 

[silverfish]

When have we blown it up before?

I said 'keep blowing it up'

I'd classify trading McDonagh, Miller, Nash, Holden, Grabner, and Stepan as a 'start of blowing it up'.

No excuse for this team not to try and compete next year. None.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I don't think anybody thinks this roster is close but if we draft well and make good acquisitions, there's no reason it has to take longer than 2-3 years.

The roster @silverfish posted is very solid. It's attainable and we could see something similar on the ice this coming camp. Is it a Cup contender? No, but it's probably a playoff team. It's young and relatively cheap. They're not going away any time soon and we'll have time to infuse the high-end talent we need. In the meantime, the team will be fun and watchable, which is really the goal. If you need to win the Cup to have fun, then it's time to quit hockey.

Now I know what you'll say - we need to pick high to get the elite talent. Except we don't. Kopitar was taken 11th. Karlsson was taken 15th. Keith was taken 54th. Barzal was taken 16th. Leetch was take 9th, McDonagh was taken 12th, and Lundqvist was taken 205th. We're probably picking higher than all of those this year. Even a guy like Schiefele was taken 7th which I think is realistic for us this year.

Our lack of elite talent isn't because we've never blown it up. It's because we've blown picks and because we've outright traded all of our 1st's which we stopped doing. We've had Giroux on the board, we've had Tarasenko on the board, we've had Getzlaf on the board, we've had Burns on the board, we've had Josi on the board. We had elite talent and didn't select them. It isn't because we didn't have first overall. It's because we blew the picks.

If everyone stays in their spot (which is worst case scenario for us, since we're out of the top 3) we pick 10th as of today. Many of the mocks have Boqvist, Woo, Smith, and Dobson available in that spot. We could easily get our future #1D out of this draft without being in the Dahlin spot. We pick four more times in the top 50 after that in an absolutely loaded draft. If we don't get at least one high-end NHL player out of that, then we ****ed it up, and it isn't because we didn't tank.

Do I trust this front office to not blow the upcoming picks? Not sure yet. Am I disappointed that this is like the 4th time we've blown the roster up under AV and haven't removed the common denominator? Absolutely. I don't know if this is the right answer. But I do know that blowing it up and sucking for ten years is not the right answer.

I agree mostly but you can't compare being able to find elite talent later in the draft and picking high. Top 5 picks have a much higher hit rate.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I said 'keep blowing it up'

I'd classify trading McDonagh, Miller, Nash, Holden, Grabner, and Stepan as a 'start of blowing it up'.

No excuse for this team not to try and compete next year. None.

Should trading UFAs really be considered part of blowing it up?

The team was in line for a lotto pick, so I’d say that’s just smart asset management for the year. Won’t argue re: McD, Miller, or Stepan.

 

[silverfish]

Should trading UFAs really be considered part of blowing it up?

The team was in line for a lotto pick, so I’d say that’s just smart asset management for the year. Won’t argue re: McD, Miller, or Stepan.

I think it could be, but considering the press release, and trading Miller, Stepan, McDonagh, as you mentioned, I feel like I'm within reasonable rights to classify this as a 'start of a blow up' that I hope they don't keep doing.

 

[Machinehead]

I agree mostly but you can't compare being able to find elite talent later in the draft and picking high. Top 5 picks have a much higher hit rate.

Doesn't necessarily mean it's worth it. For every Pittsburgh there's an Edmonton.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Doesn't necessarily mean it's worth it. For every Pittsburgh there's an Edmonton.

Yes, but at least this year it's worth it. We'll have the same roster either way, every win is a net negative.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I think it could be, but considering the press release, and trading Miller, Stepan, McDonagh, as you mentioned, I feel like I'm within reasonable rights to classify this as a 'start of a blow up' that I hope they don't keep doing.

But I’m viewing it in relation to what other teams do at the deadline. Plenty of teams sell of UFAs to get extra some picks in the draft, but few, if any, move core pieces like McD, Miller, and Stepan.

It’s me being pedantic, so I apologize for that. I do agree that there aren’t many other moves left to do in the “blowing it up” area except for moving Zucc. Otherwise, I think we’ll see swapping some players that are age-matched, but have different playing positions/styles.

Like you said, with a new coach, they should be contending for the playoffs next season. I’m also on board with bringing JVR in as a Nash replacement in the top-6.

 

[silverfish]

But I’m viewing it in relation to what other teams do at the deadline. Plenty of teams sell of UFAs to get extra some picks in the draft, but few, if any, move core pieces like McD, Miller, and Stepan.

It’s me being pedantic, so I apologize for that. I do agree that there aren’t many other moves left to do in the “blowing it up” area except for moving Zucc. Otherwise, I think we’ll see swapping some players that are age-matched, but have different playing positions/styles.

Like you said, with a new coach, they should be contending for the playoffs next season. I’m also on board with bringing JVR in as a Nash replacement in the top-6.

Right, but what is GMJG actually going to do? Is he going to say: "okay, that's enough, let's turn it around", or is he going to continue the purge and ship out guys like Kreider, Hayes, Spooner, Namestnikov for more futures?

My thought process is there's no reason to do anything like that. That a new, good enough, core is in place. That we should try to compete next year.

Let's just do smart shit. It's not that hard.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Doesn't necessarily mean it's worth it. For every Pittsburgh there's an Edmonton.

There’s never an Edmonton. No smart GM would ever make those moves that Chia did. He’s in his own class when it comes to GM stupidity.

Hall, Eberle, Barzal pick for Larsson, Strome, and Griffin Reinhart. He had McDavid on a f***ing ELC and couldn’t build around him. He’s showcasing an injured Klefbom instead of letting him heal. McTavish and Tambellini weren’t exactly bright bulbs either. That organization has been filled with incompetence because they let their 80s players run the show. Great players don’t necessarily make great managers.

 

[Machinehead]

Oh and did I mention Eric Staal has 67 points in 67 games?

Not only have we passed on bonafide, undisputed 1C's at the draft, we had one in the f***ing lineup.

People will harp on Jessiman and McIlrath and a bunch of other shit that happens with 17-year-olds, but we take known commodities like Stralman and Staal and help them pack their luggage, and nobody bats an eye.

 

[Machinehead]

There’s never an Edmonton. No smart GM would ever make those moves that Chia did. He’s in his own class when it comes to GM stupidity.

Hall, Eberle, Barzal pick for Larsson, Strome, and Griffin Reinhart. He had McDavid on a ****ing ELC and couldn’t build around him. He’s showcasing an injured Klefbom instead of letting him heal. McTavish and Tambellini weren’t exactly bright bulbs either. That organization has been filled with incompetence because they let their 80s players run the show. Great players don’t necessarily make great managers.

No smart GM does what Gorton [Sather if it helps you sleep] does in the 2014, 2015, and 2016 offseasons.

Our situation has everything to do with incompetence and nothing to do with draft status, exactly like Edmonton.

 

[silverfish]

Oh and did I mention Eric Staal has 67 points in 67 games?

Not only have we passed on bonafide, undisputed 1C's at the draft, we had one in the ****ing lineup.

People will harp on Jessiman and McIlrath and a bunch of other **** that happens with 17-year-olds, but we take known commodities like Stralman and Staal and help them pack their luggage, and nobody bats an eye.

Yandle is also having (another) money season.

Somewhere, in an alternate universe...

McDonagh - Sauer
Yandle - Stralman

Just. Wow.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Oh and did I mention Eric Staal has 67 points in 67 games?

Not only have we passed on bonafide, undisputed 1C's at the draft, we had one in the ****ing lineup.

People will harp on Jessiman and McIlrath and a bunch of other **** that happens with 17-year-olds, but we take known commodities like Stralman and Staal and help them pack their luggage, and nobody bats an eye.

Who is the 1C in the draft that we passed?

 

[Machinehead]

Who is the 1C in the draft that we passed?

We've had Getzlaf and Giroux on the board at our pick.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

We've had Getzlaf and Giroux on the board at our pick.

That was such a long time ago. Also, the Flyers even wanted Sanguinetti. He was the more highly touted prospect if I remember correctly. That's not a "pull your hair out" type pick. I think we just got a shiny new car that turned out to be a lemon.

 

[Machinehead]

That was such a long time ago. Also, the Flyers even wanted Sanguinetti. He was the more highly touted prospect if I remember correctly. That's not a "pull your hair out" type pick. I think we just got a shiny new car that turned out to be a lemon.

Doesn't matter if it was a long time ago because both guys would still be our top center.

They may not have been terrible picks at the time, but it's just an example of how superstars have been available to us despite not blowing it up.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Doesn't matter if it was a long time ago because both guys would still be our top center.

They may not have been terrible picks at the time, but it's just an example of how superstars have been available to us despite not blowing it up.

Well the 2003 draft was freakishly deep and the 2006 draft if there was a player like Giroux that's available and we're picking at the top of the draft then odds are the consolation prize will be better than Sanguinetti.

Look, I mostly agree with you and I don't want a multi-year tank. But the best way to get elite talent and not bust is still a high pick.

 

[silverfish]

Doesn't matter if it was a long time ago because both guys would still be our top center.

They may not have been terrible picks at the time, but it's just an example of how superstars have been available to us despite not blowing it up.

We would've traded Getzlaf five-years ago because he's bald.

 

[East Coast Bias]

Who is the 1C in the draft that we passed?

All of them

 

[Machinehead]

We would've traded Getzlaf five-years ago because he's bald.

Probably true.

I'm trying to give Gorton a chance but his tendency to purge first line centers and not really make the team any better is slightly alarming