Like I mentioned in the reply, it's a short term gamble for the Avs. There's the assumption Lucic will be either compliance bought-out or LTIRed by the time his game deteriorates to the level of redundancy.
Assuming the Karlsson deal is still a likely event this summer I still see the Avs as a bit of a darkhorse with some of the groundwork already laid via the Duchene trade. The Senators seem adamant on purging significant salary commitments and the Avs have got an abundance of both cap space and young, enticing trade assets including the Ottawa 1st acquired in the Duchene deal.
RD Erik Karlsson (7.5)
LW Milan Lucic (6.0)
2019 NJ 3rd (via EDM)
LD Oscar Klefbom (4.1)
LW Colin Wilson (3.937)
RD Connor Timmins
2019 Sens 1st (via COL)
RD Tyson Barrie (5.5)
RW Bobby Ryan (5.5*)
*OTT retains 1.75m
The Avs (add approximately $4m, pre-Karlsson extension)
I believe the deal makes sense for the Avs because it gives them a legitimate #1 defenseman. Tyson Barrie, while capable of providing the production, isn't a defender who drives the play at the level Karlsson does. With him under contract moving forward it would give the Avs the ability to slowly develop Cale Makar.
Milan Lucic, while owning one of the league's more questionable contracts, is still a quality power forward when on his game. This is essentially the Avs gaining a 2019 3rd to flip him via the Avs for Ryan, who merely fits a current need better for the Oilers. For the Avs, he's essentially an upgrade on Colin Wilson who'd be moved to Ottawa in the deal to balance contracts.
The Sens (clear approximately $5m short-term, significant long-term)
Pierre Dorion has shown twice this season that he's not afraid to find creative ways to make deals happen. Twice he's used third teams to solve cap problems and meet the requirements of both GMs to get those deals done. I think the Karlsson deal will ultimately be used to get out from under the Bobby Ryan deal for good, but as the trade deadline suggested, it's easier said than done.
As for the return, the Sens receive two quality high-end pieces on the back-end in return for the All-Star blue-liner--one of which is capable of eating significant minutes right out of the gate and is signed to a great deal for the next six seasons. Wilson is a necessary evil to move that much salary in a deal, but he's a serviceable bottom six winger who's only signed for another year. And they ultimately get the pick back, which likely hold immense value.
The Oilers (add approximately $1m)
They're finally addressing that PP RD that's been a need for some time. Oscar Klefbom is a massive investment, but the Oilers have the depth on the left side with Nurse, Sekera and Russell all capable of playing 20+ minutes a night. There's also a significant likelihood of the Oilers drafting a quality defenseman with their pick in this draft. Barrie can immediately slide into a second pairing role with heavy minutes with Connor McDavid. It's a good gamble that's likely to pay off in terms of PP production that has been a significant anchor to the Oilers' success this season.
Bobby Ryan for Milan Lucic--assuming Lucic is willing to move to Denver--moves the Oilers away from a player who just hasn't fit in the role the GM had envisioned when he was signed. The needs of the roster have changed significantly in two seasons and a struggling right shot winger like Ryan, who could possibly see a boost in production with one of the Oilers' centers. They essentially pay the 3rd to chop $500k off their payroll and lose a year of term.
Sorry for the novel, but it's a complicated deal that required some thought.
Thoughts?
This is
a) Good for the Sens
b) OK for the Oil
c) Bad for the Avs
The Avs take on Lucic and only get potentially one season of EK for that haul. Rough.
It depends what you're aiming for as an Avs fan. Like I said, the idea of getting Karlsson is to improve substantially in the short term--within the window of MacKinnon's current deal. The Avs as they stand with Barrie and Johnson are a middle of the pack team at the very most, with Barrie poised for a pay raise in the not too distant future. If the goal is to collect more young assets then it's probably selling off more assets as opposed to improving the roster with saavy adds. Personally I see a team with a Hart Trophy nominee and the ability to add Erik Karlsson. That launches them into borderline contender status with the young pieces they currently have.You're really not doing a very good job of selling me on this idea. I'd still much rather keep Barrie, Timmins, and the potential top 5 pick, and not get Karlsson and ~$24m in dead cap space.
Assuming the Karlsson deal is still a likely event this summer I still see the Avs as a bit of a darkhorse with some of the groundwork already laid via the Duchene trade. The Senators seem adamant on purging significant salary commitments and the Avs have got an abundance of both cap space and young, enticing trade assets including the Ottawa 1st acquired in the Duchene deal.
RD Erik Karlsson (7.5)
LW Milan Lucic (6.0)
2019 NJ 3rd (via EDM)
LD Oscar Klefbom (4.1)
LW Colin Wilson (3.937)
RD Connor Timmins
2019 Sens 1st (via COL)
RD Tyson Barrie (5.5)
RW Bobby Ryan (5.5*)
*OTT retains 1.75m
It depends what you're aiming for as an Avs fan. Like I said, the idea of getting Karlsson is to improve substantially in the short term--within the window of MacKinnon's current deal. The Avs as they stand with Barrie and Johnson are a middle of the pack team at the very most, with Barrie poised for a pay raise in the not too distant future. If the goal is to collect more young assets then it's probably selling off more assets as opposed to improving the roster with saavy adds. Personally I see a team with a Hart Trophy nominee and the ability to add Erik Karlsson. That launches them into borderline contender status with the young pieces they currently have.
If you're going to see those adds as a negative, I'm not going to sway you one way or another despite the fact it's the Avs ultimately getting the 27 year old future HOFer in the deal. In addition to the post you quoted which describes the potential outs of the Lucic cap commitment, it should be noted that Lucic scored 20 points more than Landeskog did last year and two more the year before that. He's hardly done as an NHL and currently brings more to the table than either Bobby Ryan or Colin Wilson. As a short term add, he's an improvement to the Avs roster.
The assumption is the Avs extend #65 in this deal, but the price they pay is relative to an unsigned Erik Karlsson. If the idea is the Avs continue to sit on their hands and collect more futures, I have to say it's probably not impossible the Avs regress again next season after seeing some unexpected success this year not unlike what the Oilers have experienced this year.
I think I would rather the Avs get Ryan retained than Lucic.
Even then I probably don't deal the Ottawa first + Timmons to upgrade from Barrie to EK unless Barrie wants $8m+ on his next deal
I would just cut edmonton out of the deal. And yes, I would also rather take Ryan's retained deal, probably a decent fit with the Avs.
EK (extended) + Ryan (retain 15%) for Barrie + Timmins + First.
Lucic is 29. Enough with the "old" shit. Seriously.No thanks from this Avs fan. Karlsson is great, but I'm not giving up Timmins + a potential top 5 pick to upgrade from Barrie to Karlsson. And Lucic is one of the last guys I want joining this team. He's old, slow and doesn't really add anything to the team that we don't already potentially have in a younger model.
Not that bad a deal but Ottawa should be getting more than that for Karlsson. If he goes to the Avs I'd want Rantanen back.
Lucic is 29. Enough with the "old" ****. Seriously.
You'd have to think that Karlsson should get at least what Duchene got no?