Assuming the Karlsson deal is still a likely event this summer I still see the Avs as a bit of a darkhorse with some of the groundwork already laid via the Duchene trade. The Senators seem adamant on purging significant salary commitments and the Avs have got an abundance of both cap space and young, enticing trade assets including the Ottawa 1st acquired in the Duchene deal.
RD Erik Karlsson (7.5)
LW Milan Lucic (6.0)
2019 NJ 3rd (via EDM)
LD Oscar Klefbom (4.1)
LW Colin Wilson (3.937)
RD Connor Timmins
2019 Sens 1st (via COL)
RD Tyson Barrie (5.5)
RW Bobby Ryan (5.5*)
*OTT retains 1.75m
The Avs (add approximately $4m, pre-Karlsson extension)
I believe the deal makes sense for the Avs because it gives them a legitimate #1 defenseman. Tyson Barrie, while capable of providing the production, isn't a defender who drives the play at the level Karlsson does. With him under contract moving forward it would give the Avs the ability to slowly develop Cale Makar.
Milan Lucic, while owning one of the league's more questionable contracts, is still a quality power forward when on his game. This is essentially the Avs gaining a 2019 3rd to flip him via the Avs for Ryan, who merely fits a current need better for the Oilers. For the Avs, he's essentially an upgrade on Colin Wilson who'd be moved to Ottawa in the deal to balance contracts.
The Sens (clear approximately $5m short-term, significant long-term)
Pierre Dorion has shown twice this season that he's not afraid to find creative ways to make deals happen. Twice he's used third teams to solve cap problems and meet the requirements of both GMs to get those deals done. I think the Karlsson deal will ultimately be used to get out from under the Bobby Ryan deal for good, but as the trade deadline suggested, it's easier said than done.
As for the return, the Sens receive two quality high-end pieces on the back-end in return for the All-Star blue-liner--one of which is capable of eating significant minutes right out of the gate and is signed to a great deal for the next six seasons. Wilson is a necessary evil to move that much salary in a deal, but he's a serviceable bottom six winger who's only signed for another year. And they ultimately get the pick back, which likely hold immense value.
The Oilers (add approximately $1m)
They're finally addressing that PP RD that's been a need for some time. Oscar Klefbom is a massive investment, but the Oilers have the depth on the left side with Nurse, Sekera and Russell all capable of playing 20+ minutes a night. There's also a significant likelihood of the Oilers drafting a quality defenseman with their pick in this draft. Barrie can immediately slide into a second pairing role with heavy minutes with Connor McDavid. It's a good gamble that's likely to pay off in terms of PP production that has been a significant anchor to the Oilers' success this season.
Bobby Ryan for Milan Lucic--assuming Lucic is willing to move to Denver--moves the Oilers away from a player who just hasn't fit in the role the GM had envisioned when he was signed. The needs of the roster have changed significantly in two seasons and a struggling right shot winger like Ryan, who could possibly see a boost in production with one of the Oilers' centers. They essentially pay the 3rd to chop $500k off their payroll and lose a year of term.
Sorry for the novel, but it's a complicated deal that required some thought.
Thoughts?
