Proposal: Pre-draft Blockbuster: OTT/COL/EDM

[A91]

Brutal for the Sens..

they would need at least a

1st rdp
Roster Player (top 6 F/top 4 D)
Top Prospect
+

LOL thats exactly what they are getting.

 

[vancityluongo]

Colin Wilson plays for the Avs?? Had no idea lol

This is a really good three-way proposal btw. Think Edmonton wins handily though; Barrie for Klefbom + 3rd is a tremendous win, and Ryan's contract retained is better than Lucic's. Maybe leave Klefbom out and have Wilson to Edmonton instead?

Think it looks better as two trades:

To Ottawa:
- Tyson Barrie
- Connor Timmins
- 2019 Sens 1st

To Colorado:
- Erik Karlsson
- Bobby Ryan (15% retained by Ottawa)

and then

To Edmonton:
- Bobby Ryan
- Colin Wilson (just to clear salary?)

To Colorado:
- Milan Lucic
- NJD 3rd round pick

Could leave Wilson out too.

 

[Joey Moss]

It's a decent proposal considering it's a 3-way but the only good thing from an EDM standpoint is Lucic for Ryan. I don't think Klefbom for Barrie makes sense, although the value seems fine from Edmonton.

 

[pockets]

Colin Wilson plays for the Avs?? Had no idea lol

This is a really good three-way proposal btw. Think Edmonton wins handily though; Barrie for Klefbom + 3rd is a tremendous win, and Ryan's contract retained is better than Lucic's. Maybe leave Klefbom out and have Wilson to Edmonton instead?

Think it looks better as two trades:

To Ottawa:
- Tyson Barrie
- Connor Timmins
- 2019 Sens 1st

To Colorado:
- Erik Karlsson
- Bobby Ryan (15% retained by Ottawa)

and then

To Edmonton:
- Bobby Ryan
- Colin Wilson (just to clear salary?)

To Colorado:
- Milan Lucic
- NJD 3rd round pick

Could leave Wilson out too.

Doesn't matter how you phrase it, this trade is awful for the Avs...

 

[Eltuna]

I’ve suggested something very similar to this in the past but with Edm 1st instead of Klefbom. I think Chia would rather add to his dcore not exchange 1 good dman for another. I also think if the avs are taking on an albatross contract, that asking for Timmins is overkill.

Edm: Barrie
Ott: Edm 2018 1st (7th overall), Ott 2019 1st, Edm 2018 2nd, Nash 2018 2nd, Russel
Col: Karlsson + Ryan @ 6

Edmonton suddenly has a very balanced defence that is cost effective. Barrie is currently putting up an offensive season that beats out any Oilers dman since Coffey and they have been after him in the past. Ottawa gets a ton of picks and Colorado finally gets a 1D. I think Edmonton might need to give up more but I’m not sure what else, Stepan got more last year and Barrie should have more value as he leads all dmen in ppg. If Melnyk is insistent on including Ryan EK will have a lot less value than he should.

 

[belair]

LOL the Avs aren't giving up the Senators 2019 1st round pick + Tyson Barrie + Conor Timmins for Erik Karlsson + the atrocious honor of taking on Milan Lucic and that albatross contract of his.

Dream on.

Barrie has 50 points in 58 games this year and has been playing like a top pairing d-man since EJ got injured.

When you factor in THAT plus the fact that we'd have to pay Karlsson what, $12M per season...that is a mega hard pass from the Avs.

I might be downplaying the impact Tyson Barrie has on the game for the Avs but IMO there is an incomprehensible gap between the game he brings and the one an elite level defenseman like Karlsson does. 27 year old future HOF vs quality offensive D-man. Karlsson is a guy who put the team on his back last spring playing 30+ minutes a night on a fracture ankle. For a team that has a franchise level C locked up to a very cap-friendly deal until 2023, there's some available cap there to add another franchise piece to turn current this playoff team into a contender early on in that window.

The Lucic add, as explained in the OP is the alternative to Bobby Ryan. Lucic would be a short-term upgrade on Wilson as he's still 29. But as his contract progresses the likelihood of any significant decline can be accounted for by the team's potential to use his degenerative back condition as a reason to LTIR him. Also the potential for a compliance buy-out in 2019 with the possibility of a labor disruption is also there. It would be a calculated risk for the ability to add Karlsson.

Brutal for the Sens..

they would need at least a

1st rdp
Roster Player (top 6 F/top 4 D)
Top Prospect
+

That is literally EXACTLY what they're receiving in this deal. Them having Ryan moving out--despite them retaining a chunk--significantly affects the value as well.

No thanks from this Avs fan. Karlsson is great, but I'm not giving up Timmins + a potential top 5 pick to upgrade from Barrie to Karlsson. And Lucic is one of the last guys I want joining this team. He's old, slow and doesn't really add anything to the team that we don't already potentially have in a younger model.

No argument here to your reasoning. I've mentioned why I think the Avs should be all over this. But if you think Lucic is old: f*** you! He's 29!

 

[belair]

Wait, did the op just get edited to now include Wilson too? So an already awful deal for the Avs got even worse...

Wilson was always in the deal. Lucic takes his roster spot. So at least for one year they're getting an upgrade.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

This looks pretty good actually

 

[Cypher]

This looks pretty good actually

Yeah.... if your not Colorado that is

The difference between Barrie and Karlsson isn't a 1st round pick (potentially top 3), Connor Timmins, AND having to take Lucic as a 6 million cap dump for the next 5 years.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

No argument here to your reasoning. I've mentioned why I think the Avs should be all over this. But if you think Lucic is old: **** you! He's 29!

Yes, despite being 11 years younger than me, I consider him to be too old for the Avs roster. He'd be the 4th oldest player on the Avs, and will likely be in his mid-thirties by the time Sam Girard finally hits puberty.

 

[FF3b24]

You'd have to think that Karlsson should get at least what Duchene got no?

No, the Sens way overpaid for Duchene, that's not the measuring stick.

 

[belair]

Yes, despite being 11 years younger than me, I consider him to be too old for the Avs roster. He'd be the 4th oldest player on the Avs, and will likely be in his mid-thirties by the time Sam Girard finally hits puberty.

Like I mentioned in the reply, it's a short term gamble for the Avs. There's the assumption Lucic will be either compliance bought-out or LTIRed by the time his game deteriorates to the level of redundancy.

 

[Patagonia]

AVs are getting absolutely screwed in this deal.

 

[CanadienShark]

I don't dislike it from any perspective. Good job OP. For such a massive deal, you did well.

 

[AslanRH]

I think I would rather the Avs get Ryan retained than Lucic.

Even then I probably don't deal the Ottawa first + Timmons to upgrade from Barrie to EK unless Barrie wants $8m+ on his next deal

 

[danielpalfredsson]

It doesn't make sense that COL would get Karlsson for less than what the Senators apparently turned down from Vegas at the deadline, and OTT would have to not only retain on Ryan, but take back another bad contract.

 

[belair]

It doesn't make sense that COL would get Karlsson for less than what the Senators apparently turned down from Vegas at the deadline, and OTT would have to not only retain on Ryan, but take back another bad contract.

A young top pair defenseman signed long-term, a possible lottery pick and a quality RD prospect? I'm not aware of what the rumored Vegas return was but I'm doubting they even had the available assets to match that return.

 

[Sureves]

It's actually a pretty good trade for all teams. I don't like it as a Sens fan, but it's probably fair value.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

No, the Sens way overpaid for Duchene, that's not the measuring stick.

Karlsson > Duchene by quite a bit .. the return on Karlsson has to be better .. It has to be sick

 

[danielpalfredsson]

A young top pair defenseman signed long-term, a possible lottery pick and a quality RD prospect? I'm not aware of what the rumored Vegas return was but I'm doubting they even had the available assets to match that return.

Friedman outlines potential Karlsson-Vegas trade framework

-Ottawa's choice of one of Vegas' top prospects (Glass? Suzuki? Brannstrom?)
-Two 1st Round Picks
-Unnamed Conditional Pick (Possible 1st?)
-Vegas taking Ryan

That is better than what was in the OP and it was turned down by Ottawa. That was also only the "backbone" of the offer, which if that means what it sounds like it means might insinuate some additional lesser pieces being involved, which would make sense since Dorion's ask was apparently something in the 5-7 piece range.

There's nothing productive about these half baked proposals where other teams try to fantasize about their team acquiring a franchise player without (in the name of a famous GM) "sufficiently hurting" themselves. What would you trade Karlsson for right now if you were the GM of the Senators? Certainly not the package in the OP.

 

[ViktorBaeArvidsson]

Maybe a decent proposal but you forgot about that most of these players have NTC's in their contracts...

 

[Avs44]

I don't see how this makes sense for the Avs....

If the Sens do move Karlsson, and this proposal is supposing that he is actively available this summer, then I think that's a minimum top 10, likely top 5 2019 1st rounder, with odds to move into the top 3. (If the Sens don't move Karlsson then they could make the playoffs quite comfortably, but that's not really relevant here). In that case, I'd much rather the Avs sit on the sidelines and reap the benefits of a Karlsson trade without having to do a thing. Regardless, that pick should be valued really highly, at least from an Avs POV.

On top of that the Avs are giving up Barrie, currently on pace for 70 points over 82 games, and just hitting his prime. Minimum he's a second pairing ~50 point guy, and right now with EJ out he's been showing much higher potential. At 26 years old for a defensman I don't think it's unrealistic to suggest he could hit higher levels and maybe start exceeding 50 points into the 60 point range pretty consistently. Bottom line, he's an excellent top 4 defensman, and one of the elite offensive defensmen in the league.

And then on top of that the Avs are giving up a really good D prospect in Timmins who's really only trended upward since being drafted.

All that for renting Erik Karlsson, and the massive negative that is Lucic's 6 million until 2023, along with a NMC that means he has to be protected in the expansion draft, which additionally means the Avs would be unable to protect Jost or someone of that potential calibre in the upcoming expansion draft. If Karlsson walked then this trade would be disastrous. Even if he did sign, which is a pretty big "if" IMO, assuming along the lines of 10-12 million a year, then that combined with Lucic is suddenly dumping potentially 18 million into the Avs' long term cap structure. Wouldn't be a problem immediately, but when Rantanen gets an extension somewhere between Pastrnak and Draisaitl's range, I'm guessing, and guys like Z, Girard and the others need extensions...then that Lucic contract becomes a big problem. Avs could sure use a #1 D, Karlsson is special, but this much for 1 year of Karlsson is an absolute no under any circumstances, and including Lucic makes it pretty rough.

 

[belair]

Friedman outlines potential Karlsson-Vegas trade framework

-Ottawa's choice of one of Vegas' top prospects (Glass? Suzuki? Brannstrom?)
-Two 1st Round Picks
-Unnamed Conditional Pick (Possible 1st?)
-Vegas taking Ryan

That is better than what was in the OP and it was turned down by Ottawa. That was also only the "backbone" of the offer, which if that means what it sounds like it means might insinuate some additional lesser pieces being involved, which would make sense since Dorion's ask was apparently something in the 5-7 piece range.

There's nothing productive about these half baked proposals where other teams try to fantasize about their team acquiring a franchise player without (in the name of a famous GM) "sufficiently hurting" themselves. What would you trade Karlsson for right now if you were the GM of the Senators? Certainly not the package in the OP.

Assuming Karlsson improves them, those two 1sts would be late 1sts. I'm failing to see how you're seeing that as an improvement on Ottawa getting their 1st back unless you're expecting them to bounce back in a significant manner next season despite trading away their franchise defenseman.

And for the record, I'm not an Avs fan. I make these proposals because I visualize them from each team's perspective and see the benefit for each. Obviously many fans have a different idea of player value or what a team should ultimately be trying to achieve in these deals.

In respect to Erik Karlsson, I've said many times before, there are a select few defensemen in the NHL who have the raw ability to take complete control of a game literally every night. Regardless of how much you have to pay them, you should never let them go because you're never getting them back. So personally I don't trade him at all if it's ultimately my decision. But as you're probably thoroughly aware, your GM is between a rock and a hard place in regards to your franchise defenseman, who happens to be an impending UFA. This proposal is drawn up with the idea the Senators need an NHL-ready top-pair defenseman on a sweetheart deal to replace a significant chunk of Karlsson's minutes because the owner isn't going to pay him what he wants next summer. I think that's reasonably realistic.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Assuming Karlsson improves them, those two 1sts would be late 1sts. I'm failing to see how you're seeing that as an improvement on Ottawa getting their 1st back unless you're expecting them to bounce back in a significant manner next season despite trading away their franchise defenseman.

And for the record, I'm not an Avs fan. I make these proposals because I visualize them from each team's perspective and see the benefit for each. Obviously many fans have a different idea of player value or what a team should ultimately be trying to achieve in these deals.

In respect to Erik Karlsson, I've said many times before, there are a select few defensemen in the NHL who have the raw ability to take complete control of a game literally every night. Regardless of how much you have to pay them, you should never let them go because you're never getting them back. So personally I don't trade him at all if it's ultimately my decision. But as you're probably thoroughly aware, your GM is between a rock and a hard place in regards to your franchise defenseman, who happens to be an impending UFA. This proposal is drawn up with the idea the Senators need an NHL-ready top-pair defenseman on a sweetheart deal to replace a significant chunk of Karlsson's minutes because the owner isn't going to pay him what he wants next summer. I think that's reasonably realistic.

I still don't like the proposal in the OP, or think it is better than Vegas' offer Ottawa turned down, so there's not much more I can add to my stance about both offers that wasn't in my previous posts, but I appreciate the thoughtful discussion. Thanks.

 

[thadd]

Colorado - They need to have a spoken agreement on a contract extension with Karlsson's agent. Then it's gold.

Edmonton - How the hell could they say no to that? Lucic is probably going to bounce back, but to what degree? He's never going to be an average skater and that's his weakness. Switching Klefbom for Barrie sounds great because he need a PMD and we need a righty.

Nurse-Barrie
Sekera-Larson

That's a pretty balanced top 4.

Hopkins-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Ryan-Drai-Yamamoto

That could very well be our top 6 on opening night. Could be a fun to watch. Could be a ton of fun to watch.

Ottawa gets that first rounder back. That's gotta bring a sigh of relief to their franchise. Klefbom and Wilson are serviceable and on decent contracts. Don't know anything about Connor Timmins. Going to assume he's a good prospect. Right handed d-man that's been very productive in the OHL sounds like a good asset to pick up.