C/RW Mitch Marner - London Knights, OHL (2015, 4th, TOR) V
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King In The North
Sean Bennett
I'm not sure where you got the idea I was directly comparing Marner to Gretzky or McDavid. Was I said was that in the playoffs he's performing LIKE an elite generational player and the numbers bear that out. The question of course is whether he's capable of sustaining this kind of play for an extended period of time. That is unknown.
In terms of raw puck skills I think Marner does belong in the discussion with those players. If he's able to beef up over the summer he could be on that level in the pros.
Figured I'd look at Marner's PPG against players in their draft+1/2 seasons. Taken from the top 100 OHL points per game on eliteprospects.
Robbie Schremp draft+2 = 2.47
Steve Downie draft+2 = 2.44
Nazem Kadri draft+1 = 2.25
Stefan Noesen draft+1 = 2.14 (7 games)
Corey Perry draft+2 = 2.11
Michael Dal Colle draft+2 = 2.00
These weren't on the list of top 100 but are high profile guys who played draft+1/2 seasons from 2003 draft onwards.
Jeff Carter draft+2 = 1.42
Mike Richards draft+2 = 1.86
Dave Bolland draft+1 = 1.38
Dave Bolland draft+2 = 1.60
Ryan Callahan draft+2 = 1.84
James Neal draft+1 = 1.20
James Neal draft+2 = 1.25
Bryan Little draft+1 = 1.12
Nick Foligno draft+1 = 1.38
Logan Couture draft+2 = 1.42
Wayne Simmonds draft+2 = 1.00
Cody Hodgson draft+1 = 1.47
Adam Henrique draft+1 = 0.85
Adam Henrique draft+2 = 1.31
Tyler Toffoli draft+1 = 2.00
Tyler Toffoli draft+2 = 1.00
Ryan Strome draft+1 = 1.15
Mark Scheifele draft+2 = 1.95
Vladislav Namestnikov draft+1 = 0.94
Rickard Rakell draft+1 = 0.96
Rickard Rakell draft+2 = 1.00
Boone Jenner draft+1 = 1.83
Brandon Saad draft+1 = 1.41
got bored after the 2011 draft but yeah you get the picture.
Robbie Schremp draft+2 = 2.47
Steve Downie draft+2 = 2.44
Nazem Kadri draft+1 = 2.25
Stefan Noesen draft+1 = 2.14 (7 games)
Corey Perry draft+2 = 2.11
Michael Dal Colle draft+2 = 2.00
These weren't on the list of top 100 but are high profile guys who played draft+1/2 seasons from 2003 draft onwards.
Jeff Carter draft+2 = 1.42
Mike Richards draft+2 = 1.86
Dave Bolland draft+1 = 1.38
Dave Bolland draft+2 = 1.60
Ryan Callahan draft+2 = 1.84
James Neal draft+1 = 1.20
James Neal draft+2 = 1.25
Bryan Little draft+1 = 1.12
Nick Foligno draft+1 = 1.38
Logan Couture draft+2 = 1.42
Wayne Simmonds draft+2 = 1.00
Cody Hodgson draft+1 = 1.47
Adam Henrique draft+1 = 0.85
Adam Henrique draft+2 = 1.31
Tyler Toffoli draft+1 = 2.00
Tyler Toffoli draft+2 = 1.00
Ryan Strome draft+1 = 1.15
Mark Scheifele draft+2 = 1.95
Vladislav Namestnikov draft+1 = 0.94
Rickard Rakell draft+1 = 0.96
Rickard Rakell draft+2 = 1.00
Boone Jenner draft+1 = 1.83
Brandon Saad draft+1 = 1.41
got bored after the 2011 draft but yeah you get the picture.
HarrisonFord
President of the Drew Doughty Fan Club
Tkachuk Norris
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- Jun 22, 2012
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No way he goes above Pulju. Pulju is a young Marrian Hossa/Sergei Federov. Marner likely goes 4th (although a few teams like my Flames might take Tkachuk or Dubois)
HarrisonFord
President of the Drew Doughty Fan Club
Well Marner has a 30% shooting percentage in the playoffs, and his trio has a combined 27%. That would indicate his points are clearly not sustainable over an extended period of time. So i don't think it is unknown unless you believe 27% shooting percentage for a line (and 30% for Marner) is something that could hold up for say an an entire season.
Aceboogie
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- Aug 25, 2012
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37 points in 14 games is incredible. But becomes alot less impressive when you consider his linemates has 4 less points than him and is also technically on verge of history. And also another linemate is near 2 ppg.
I mean when McDavid did it last year, Strome had only 22 point in 20 games and the next highest player had 24 points to his 49
I mean when McDavid did it last year, Strome had only 22 point in 20 games and the next highest player had 24 points to his 49
How does it become less impressive lol, you know 3 points are generally awared for each goal? Unless you expect Marner to just have 30+ unassisted goals or something?
Patmac40
BESTPOSTERINTHEGAME
It's not any less impressive, let alone "a lot less impressive". He's the driving force on the best line in the CHL and one of the most dominant lines we've seen in junior hockey. But he's the biggest contributor on that line.
Comparing to what McDavid (a once in a generation prospect) isn't a really great benchmark for anyone. Marner has been incredibly dominant no matter what way you slice it.
Diamond Joe Quimby
A$AP Joffrey
Passengers get points too. Ala Sam Gagner in 2007.
Keith should send Marner's family a bouquet for their son carrying his kid into the top five of the draft this year.
Aceboogie
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- Aug 25, 2012
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- 3,896
Maybe a lot less impressive was wrong word. Its still outstanding. But I think some perspective needs to be brought in. And I do agree that Tkachuk is boosted big time by him. But id like to hear a Knights fans opinion. I mean Gagner in his draft year had red flags from some fans. Did MT as well?
Its like the Winterhawks from 2012-2015. They lit it up and everyone got major points. But the point totals for everyone was massively inflated
Marner has put up high level points for his age group, prior to playing with Dvorak, and had basically the same amount of points when Rupert played the Tkachuk role. In 2007 Kane only had too more points than Gagner in the playoffs, Corey Perry had 8 more points than Schremp in 18 games. The line stay together, where in some other cases teams shift lines to try and get other players going like what Erie did last year. McDavid is on another level, so its not really worth while discussing him.
But as an example last year when Marner was played as a center in the playoffs he got 16 points in 7 games, while the Dvorak/Domi line they used had trouble scoring at a comparable rate.
Tkachuk's game has red flags, but I think the Gagner example gets beaten to death here. For one they are very different players, and to, I feel Sam Gagner probably has a better career if we wasn't rushed to the league and developed in a tire fire. Tkachuk's secondary points and dependence on others is a gift and a curse. One alot of star junior scorers can never adapt to not being the puck dominant player of their line, we know with Tkachuk that he knows how to play a complimentary role. On the other hand, he's never really shown he can be the guy. But a lot of good players drafted in the 4-10 range, never have to become the guy, they need to help other players excel. Tkachuk will make one star centers life alot easier, while not quite the all around players of these guys, I could easily see him filling the role players like Sam Reinhart and Brayden Schenn did this year, very smart, hard working guys, who do whatever is needed to make there line successful, and rarely make a bad play.
Atomos2
Registered User
Using the linemates is a weak excuse. Marner's production has always increased in the playoffs every year.
Playoff PPG for Marner
Rookie season [2014] - 1.00
2015 - 2.29
2016 - 2.64 (currently)
If anything, the jump from 2014 to 2015 is more substantial and he did it without playing with Dvorak, Domi or Tkachuk. I doubt using the linemates excuse now after his previous years holds any weight.
Kid is bringing the rest of the OHL to its knees. At this rate he is going to have more points in the playoffs than most players have in the regular season.
And if he picks up just 10 more points he would be tied for 75th. Just absolutely insane.
I don't think anybody every doubted Marner's ability to rack up points in junior hockey, so I really don't get how this elevates his stock?
His strengths remain his strengths, his weaknesses his weaknesses.
His strengths remain his strengths, his weaknesses his weaknesses.
Well he's been holding it up for 14 games without any problem. Did you ever consider that Marner's shooting percentage increases in the playoffs because he's actually creating more space and shooting the puck better?
Considering how they dominated Strome and DeBrincat I wouldn't bet on their production declining.
What? This has to be one of the worst comparisons I've seen here. Fedorov could of been an elite defender if he wanted to and at his peak is one of the best centers the league has seen since the 80's. Puljujarvi's is nowhere near Fedorov. Marner would challenge Puljujarvi, so would Strome or Hanifin.
There is so little data on shooting percentages in the OHL its hard to draw firm conclusions, even less so when factoring in the playoffs. Marner, has played at a 2ppg pace for almost 150 games, it seems pretty sustainable at this point.
Completely dominating the best teams in the OHL will help elevate your stock. Ranking up numbers vs the Sudbury's and Guelph's of the league is one thing. Putting up almost 3 ppg in back to back series vs two of the best teams in the OHL shows he can dominate even the toughest competition in the league. Very few guys can say the same.
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