Speculation: 2022 Off-Season | Dethroned: What next? - Part 2

[Five Alarm Fire]

In a prospect pool so thin, if we are letting guys walk, it means there's not much hope for them anyway.

Yup. These guys are 23 and it's not even clear if they could make the Crunch next year.

 

[Point21]

 

[These Are The Days]

I can't remember the last time we had a prospect pool this thin

 

[Felonious Python]

I can't remember the last time we had a prospect pool this thin

TB had been probably too attached to hoping long shots would work out. We might be going too far the other way now, but even just trading expiring ELCs for other guys ended up with improved lineups.

 

[DFC]

TB had been probably too attached to hoping long shots would work out. We might be going too far the other way now, but even just trading expiring ELCs for other guys ended up with improved lineups.

Usually within a year of the draft we would know we had something special, or at least a kid who was going to out-perform his draft position. With Point it was blatantly obvious. Both Point and Cirelli had big WJCs, and we knew we had homeruns.

 

[LightningStrikes]

Usually within a year of the draft we would know we had something special, or at least a kid who was going to out-perform his draft position. With Point it was blatantly obvious. Both Point and Cirelli had big WJCs, and we knew we had homeruns.

Let’s see what Thompson can do!

 

[These Are The Days]

TB had been probably too attached to hoping long shots would work out. We might be going too far the other way now, but even just trading expiring ELCs for other guys ended up with improved lineups.

Feels like we're basically only drafting college kids who don't sign with us, over-agers, possible boom/bust players who only bust and then whoever is left of the high IQ/good work ethic crop.

I feel like I've gone back to 2006 having a conversation with my old Penguins buddy talking about hypothetical trades and he said "Eric Healey is your best prospect" in regard to trading him for any kind of help and it would be a bad idea. And I'm just like "Jesus Christ that hit hard" because despite using the word "prospect" incorrectly, a 31 year old career minor leaguer was still better because we both knew guys like Blair Jones, Marek Kvapil and Matt Smaby weren't shit

 

[Todd1a]

Usually within a year of the draft we would know we had something special, or at least a kid who was going to out-perform his draft position. With Point it was blatantly obvious. Both Point and Cirelli had big WJCs, and we knew we had homeruns.

Colton took awhile

 

[TheDaysOf 04]

Feels like we're basically only drafting college kids who don't sign with us, over-agers, possible boom/bust players who only bust and then whoever is left of the high IQ/good work ethic crop.

I feel like I've gone back to 2006 having a conversation with my old Penguins buddy talking about hypothetical trades and he said "Eric Healey is your best prospect" in regard to trading him for any kind of help and it would be a bad idea. And I'm just like "Jesus Christ that hit hard" because despite using the word "prospect" incorrectly, a 31 year old career minor leaguer was still better because we both knew guys like Blair Jones, Marek Kvapil and Matt Smaby weren't shit

Guttman and Walker are the only prospects to choose to not sign with us. They were 6th and 7th rd picks who if we didn’t draft would have probably gone undrafted due to their size and become free agents at this point anyway.

It appears that these decisions were made with how tough it’s been to crack our lineup the past 3 years.



I’d still put our track record of developing and giving opportunities to undersized forwards next to any team, but they obviously thought this was the quicker/easier path to the nhl. Luckily not everyone thinks that way as Perbix also has that chance but still chose to sign with us.

 

[Point21]

 

[Rschmitz]

Guttman and Walker are the only prospects to choose to not sign with us. They were 6th and 7th rd picks who if we didn’t draft would have probably gone undrafted due to their size and become free agents at this point anyway.

It appears that these decisions were made with how tough it’s been to crack our lineup the past 3 years.



I’d still put our track record of developing and giving opportunities to undersized forwards next to any team, but they obviously thought this was the quicker/easier path to the nhl. Luckily not everyone thinks that way as Perbix also has that chance but still chose to sign with us.

I just don’t understand why you would ever draft these college kids unless they’ve fallen quite a bit. They lose nothing by going to free agency and determining their own outlook

 

[Felonious Python]

I just don’t understand why you would ever draft these college kids unless they’ve fallen quite a bit. They lose nothing by going to free agency and determining their own outlook

Most guys you can't keep forever. We also don't know the story behind Walker and Guttman (unless I missed it).

NCAA is a different path than the CHL.

CHL - ages 16-21, can be signed by NHL team and sent back, can move around much more within junior structure (leagues, affiliates) to find best fit

NCAA - ages 18-25ish, can't be signed by NHL team and sent back, tends to be on the older side with the number of USHL, NAHL, and Canadian Jr. A opportunities to delay starting NCAA career, traditionally locked in to program, and most transfers required sitting out a year.

Only in the past year have they loosened the rules on transfers (can do it once in undergrad without sitting out), and given everybody that extra COVID season.

You can find NCAA guys in later rounds. John Marino, Mason Appleton, Vinnie Hinostrosa, etc. They typically leave school early. Colin Blackwell didn't. Five years at Harvard, but made it as a 7th round pick.

 

[JTBF81]

Stastny would've been a solid one year add. Hard to see Names at 2.5 being a better value than Stastny at 1.5.

 

[Evgeny Oliker]

Where do you see Namestnikov playing in your lineup this season? Bottom 6 or top 6?

 

[Felonious Python]

Where do you see Namestnikov playing in your lineup this season? Bottom 6 or top 6?

yes

 

[JTBF81]

Where do you see Namestnikov playing in your lineup this season? Bottom 6 or top 6?

While Cirelli is out, he'll probably switch between the 2nd and 3rd lines is my guess. Once Cirelli is back he should be mostly 3rd line barring injuries, as Hagel should get a top 6 role this season if they want to use him correctly.

 

[These Are The Days]

Where do you see Namestnikov playing in your lineup this season? Bottom 6 or top 6?

Bottom 6 probably. Like I have no issues whatsoever with the move. My issue is this was our answer to losing Palat for..... sort of no reason. I'm not wild about the idea of giving Palat like 6/7 years like he wanted for a smaller AAV and I'm sure the office wasn't either.

Christ I just wish we had some more prospects coming up. That would've solved everything really

 

[Sky04]

Stastny would've been a solid one year add. Hard to see Names at 2.5 being a better value than Stastny at 1.5.

Stastny waited forever to make a decision, Names was willing to sign on day 1, he's also exclusively a center and we're keep enough in that department.

 

[JTBF81]

Stastny waited forever to make a decision, Names was willing to sign on day 1, he's also exclusively a center and we're keep enough in that department.

Doesn't really change the fact that he's much better value at 1.5 vs Names at 2.5. With Cirelli out the first 2 months he would've also helped with the lessened C depth, and even after Cirelli was back, he still could've been fine at 3C if they wanted to utilize Colton and Paul on the 2nd and 3rd line wings(depending on where Hagel ends up). He did take awhile to make a decision, and maybe neither he nor the Lightning were interested, but him at 1.5 is better value and would've allowed Tampa to not have to trade/risk a roster player to waivers once Cirelli and Bogo come back. I think the Namestnikov signing was rushed and that there were better potential middle/bottom 6 values available(and could still be, as until Motte, Rodrigues and Milano sign, won't know what their term vs aav is in comparison).

 

[RussianGuyovich]

Stastny is also 36, which is a risk that perhaps we weren't willing to take. i dunno. also his big dumb face is goofy

case dismissed

 

[JTBF81]

Stastny is also 36, which is a risk that perhaps we weren't willing to take. i dunno. also his big dumb face is goofy

case dismissed

Eh, for one year at that price there wasn't that much risk. Stastny maybe just wanted to play for a certain team. Tampa has signed plenty of older players to short term deals, so I don't see that as being a real issue either.

 

[ccman68]

stastny is too slow. namestnikov has shown success on our top line before. it was the best move we could make with the cap space we had.

 

[CupsOverCash]

stastny is too slow. namestnikov has shown success on our top line before. it was the best move we could make with the cap space we had.

Not thrilled with Nam especially at the cap hit but at least he has previous chemistry with top guys in case of injury.

Even though loss of palat/mcd sucks a lot feel like we can make up for loss of them in some ways with our style of play and who we depend on is still here and in their prime. Will be interesting to see how we do without those guys and how much do the guys have in the tank after all the runs they've had.

 

[DFC]

The only thing I like about the Namestnikov signing is he could play with Stamkos and Kuch, at least in the regular season. I feel like come playoff time he will be out of the line up as much as he's in.

In a perfect world we pump and dump him again.

 

[JTBF81]

Names had chemistry with Stamkos and Kuch 4-5 years ago. Maybe he will have it again, but that's far from any sure thing. Whether or not he was the best value addition for the space the team had remains to be seen, as there were and still are other players out there that could've fit just as well, depending on term and aav(I don't see Names anywhere close to a top line player in Tampa, more of a 2nd/3rd line type until Cirelli gets back, then 3rd line pretty exclusively).