Speculation: 2022 Off-Season | Dethroned: What next? - Part 2

[TheDaysOf 04]

 

[DFC]

It really doesn't feel like we are all that similar to last year. The pieces we lost are hard to replace. Even if McDonagh was in the midst of a step back (...I still don't really buy that, but for argument's sake), that doesn't mean his role is one that just anybody can plug into. Same is true for Palat, and he's coming off arguably the best playoff run of his career.

 

[Rschmitz]

It really doesn't feel like we are all that similar to last year. The pieces we lost are hard to replace. Even if McDonagh was in the midst of a step back (...I still don't really buy that, but for argument's sake), that doesn't mean his role is one that just anybody can plug into. Same is true for Palat, and he's coming off arguably the best playoff run of his career.

Yeah, I mean everything feels like how things felt after the Lightning won the cup in 04, and because of the lockout we lost substantial pieces we never recovered from. I hate to draw more parallels but keeping the “big 4” back then felt a lot like retaining the guys we just did.

Not because it wasn’t necessary, but because we are absolutely handcuffed and have very little wiggle room to do anything now, except watch the slow exodus of talent and our level of compete decrease.

If we are lucky, we’ll be the next Pens where we are still dark horse contenders for the next 5-10 years. It’s all downhill from here though

 

[Hoek]

At least unlike the Pens, Caps, and Hawks before us we have elite steady goalkeeping to cushion the fall.

 

[CupsOverCash]

At least unlike the Pens, Caps, and Hawks before us we have elite steady goalkeeping to cushion the fall.

Also they have been known to find a gem here or there in the draft. If they can do that and do some work in development of these players like they have successfully here recently maybe we can get something cooking again. Maybe jbb can steal sy death stare for a trade and we can get back into elite status again. We got some young guys here with right mix of guys we have deep run in them again. Agree vasi is the backbone of all that though.

 

[Maelmoor]

Keep in mind that pretty much all top teams lost some key players, I really don't think the balance of power has changed that much among the contenders, it's more that the bottom teams got stronger

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

We could really use our pro scouts knocking it out of the park, e.g. Yanni Gourde

 

[Felonious Python]

We could really use our pro scouts knocking it out of the park, e.g. Yanni Gourde

That's been the guys I've been bringing up on threads. Gourde went from junior to a one-year AHL deal, then an ECHL deal to AHL PTO the next season before TB signed him. Don't discount the guys not getting deals.

If you like the prospect, you like the prospect.

I did also just see that Paul Messier isn't a pro scout with Edmonton anymore. I don't know anything about him, other than being Mark's brother, but he played a few years in Germany and the US minor leagues.

 

[Rschmitz]

We could really use our pro scouts knocking it out of the park, e.g. Yanni Gourde

And March and CarterV, kept knocking it out of the park but now we need it the most

 

[Master P]

Do I have to start the optimist shit already?!

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I just realized that Tyler Motte still doesn't have a contract. Kind of wish we threw him Namestnikov's money. I really like Motte's game since he was in Vancouver. 100% effort, small honey badger type of player, not much offense, Gourde-lite IMO.

 

[Sky04]

It really doesn't feel like we are all that similar to last year. The pieces we lost are hard to replace. Even if McDonagh was in the midst of a step back (...I still don't really buy that, but for argument's sake), that doesn't mean his role is one that just anybody can plug into. Same is true for Palat, and he's coming off arguably the best playoff run of his career.

He had some rough games in the playoffs, chalk that up to 3 consecutive deep runs on a guy who logs the hardest minutes on the team. People talk like he was declining all year, McDonagh had a strong regular season considering Cernak was injured and not really up to par all season long. McDonagh logs the 2nd most minutes per game on the team along with Sergachev but in an almost pure defensive role, he faces the top lines, logs the most PK minutes and 65% defensive zone starts, we'll likely see Hedman and Sergachev's offensive numbers drop as they split that role.

Hedman especially was bleeding goals against this year, luckily he was able to outscore his defensive problems.

 

[Stelio Kontos]

Pls Bring back Cedric Paquette..I know I’m not the only one who misses the pac-man and he’s a FA

 

[Stammertime91]

Pls Bring back Cedric Paquette..I know I’m not the only one who misses the pac-man and he’s a FA

Team isn't lacking any bottom six options. He would be redundant and not an upgrade on anybody really.

 

[Felonious Python]

I just realized that Tyler Motte still doesn't have a contract. Kind of wish we threw him Namestnikov's money. I really like Motte's game since he was in Vancouver. 100% effort, small honey badger type of player, not much offense, Gourde-lite IMO.

He might want more years than TB can afford.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

i feel like i have probably been harsh on McD. and i have, i mean he cost us the cup, imo (that's pretty heartless).

but one thing McD was great at was boardwork. any NHL replacement player can lean into a shot block and clog passing lanes on the PK and EV, but McD would then turn into the loose puck along the boards with the opposition on his back, and still come out with the puck. he was extremely shifty that way, and it was great when the opposing team was dumping the puck in to beat our trap. and even in the playoffs, he didn't really lose that ability, he was still good along the boards, problem was he couldn't exit the zone through passing or skating. i really thought that was due to injury, but it was never confirmed beyond the hand injury he acquired versus NYR (which was three rounds in, and he was bad all playoffs).

this is what makes McD the most replaceable of the LD, imo. while i think we are a lesser team now without him, like it or not a player's value to the team is intrinsically tied to his cap hit and age. and McD was on the wrong side of 30 and getting paid, son. ian cole can block shots too. will he replace McD's boardwork? probably not. but hopefully he can at least match his defensive zone exits.

this next season leaves a lot to be desired in terms of guaranteed value for fans, we lost a lot of talent. but one thing the old timers seasoned veterans like me have learned is, hope springs eternal. we turned rutta from waiver wire to serviceable RD. like rutta; johnson, gourde, and Marchessault were undrafted FA that we turned into stars. palat was a seventh rounder. kucherov was a reach in the second round, and point a third rounder.

the posters on this board are dooming and telling you to not have any hope for the next season, but i posit: what if i did have hope? what if i had hope out the wazoo? and you can trust me, because im handsome.

 

[Hoek]

Motte would be just as redundant as Paquette. Rather have the guy that can play in the top 6 in the regular season at least.

 

[Maelmoor]

Paquette is an AHL player at this point, I love nostalgia, but it shouldn't be the foundation of decision making when building a team.

 

[These Are The Days]

Do I have to start the optimist shit already?!

Please dude. My brightest comment for this offseason is a candid "This team is a soulless, remorseless killing machine even to its own players, it's no wonder we nearly had a threepeat. Vasy might actually choke a bitch for being denied that third title. They're not done." It's not supposed to make anyone feel better as much as I know it's the truth.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

Yeah, I mean everything feels like how things felt after the Lightning won the cup in 04, and because of the lockout we lost substantial pieces we never recovered from. I hate to draw more parallels but keeping the “big 4” back then felt a lot like retaining the guys we just did.

Not because it wasn’t necessary, but because we are absolutely handcuffed and have very little wiggle room to do anything now, except watch the slow exodus of talent and our level of compete decrease.

If we are lucky, we’ll be the next Pens where we are still dark horse contenders for the next 5-10 years. It’s all downhill from here though

This was pretty much my feeling on last season as well, and I suspect JBB felt the same way too given the impending off-season and what was likely to be necessary, and that's the biggest reason he went for it one more time at the deadline to see if he could squeeze another Cup out of the roster. As I said a few times, the 2021-'22 team was already weaker than the 2020-'21 team had been, and the 2022-'23 team figured to be even weaker than the 2021-'22 team, and this was before I even considered a possible McDonagh trade being made. Odds were, we were going to lose Palat and there was no way within the confines of the salary cap we could've replaced him with anyone near his level. Pretty much just taking one player out of the top-6 and saying "well, deal with it". I suppose the hope we all had could've been if we had shipped out Killorn and kept Palat instead, but that still removes a top-6 forward either way and you could question the prudence of giving Palat lengthy term now that he's on the other side of 30.

Going into the 2021-'22 season, even with our departures, I still wasn't sure I looked around at the rest of the East and saw a team I didn't think the Lightning could beat among the top contenders. I did fear a matchup with Colorado, and had done so for years. We'd been fortunate to avoid them before but our luck finally ran out last year, and then we didn't have the luck of the bounces either; four 1-goal games and three of them went their way. Oh well, it happens. And I guess the problem is, as 2022-'23 nears, is that I'm still not sure I see a team in the East I don't think we can beat; have any of the Eastern playoff teams of a year ago improved their rosters during the off-season? The other Atlantic teams haven't, Carolina hasn't, New York hasn't, and both the Pens and Caps are old as dirt. Frankly, I could still see us having a roster good enough to make a run (whether the legs are there after 68 playoff games the last three seasons is another matter). But are we good enough to beat the Avs in the Final? You have to measure us against the Avs for two reasons, because they're the champions and because they're clearly the best team in the West still and you need to operate with the expectation that they'll be the ones to come out of there again next season. They looked to be beating us without Kadri as well and he might still re-sign there so I wouldn't put too much stock into his absence either. Regardless, that's where the real problem lies going into 2022-'23, that we lost to the Avs and I don't see how we've improved a matchup with them at all this off-season.

It is what it is. COVID and the ensuing flat cap hurt as more than most given where we were in the contention cycle when it occurred. Same way, as you said, the 2005 lockout and ensuing salary cap implementation screwed us then after a Cup win. Rotten luck with this stuff I guess. But that's the way it goes.

 

[YayHockeysBack]

Point >>> Kari, especially to the Lightning who were suffering a speed deficit against the Avs. So if you erase the injuries for both teams, I think it ultimately helps the Lightning.

 

[YayHockeysBack]

I want to add to this point about the Avs. The lightning lost in six games, with at least a couple of them based on questionable calls, and did it without one of their best players, and arguably the most important answer to Colorado's speed. The sky isn't falling.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

He might want more years than TB can afford.

He made like $1.25M last year and he's 27. A 3 year deal at like $1.75M or so playing our bottom 6 would be great value IMO. He would not be an anchor that we would we regret giving him multiple years.

 

[bov]

The injuries to Cirelli and Bogosian could be a blessing in disguise, giving some players an opportunity to play important minutes and possibly gain trade value as the season goes on. Motte is a good player but I don't see how he could be squeezed in. When guys last that long in FA, I just assume they're going to the Isles and it's already done.

Namestnikov-Point-Kucherov
Killorn-Stamkos-Barre-Boulet
Paul-Colton-Hagel
Maroon-Bellemare-Perry
X
Hedman-Foote
Sergachev-Cernak
Cole-Myers
Fleury/Perbix

Between ABB, Myers, Foote etc you might be able to sell high if they get regular minutes in the first part of the season.

 

[ccman68]

the avs lost more than us this offseason. florida too. leafs don’t have a goalie. who knows wtf is up with boston. we are in a good spot