Confirmed with Link: Zucker to the Pens for 1st round pick, Gally, and Addison Part Duex

[HandshakeLine]

Yup.. another Rust at 2 million dollars more per.

No wonder Jackie-O put a cap in your ass.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Yup.. another Rust at 2 million dollars more per.

You're just a ray of sunshine on these otherwise bleak forums.

 

[Rakell67]

I actually really like her. She's thoughtful and well-spoken.

Lucky man!

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

If we're going to require both 20+ goals and 40+ points, the number of players who hit that mark last season is even fewer.
Contrary to popular belief, simply playing with Crosby or Malkin doesn't guarantee a bump in point production. Especially since the #1 PP unit is hard to crack, and it gets the overwhelming bulk of the PP minutes.

Most of the under 30 guys who get traded for an play regular minutes with Sid or Geno see a bump.

I don't know of any who saw a regression.

Stripping out his first three partial seasons where he was back and forth in the AHL and NHL:
Mean goals: 25.1
Mean points: 45.9
Median goals: 23.9
Median points: 45.7
Standard deviation is 6.57 for goals, and 11.34 for points, so there's a fair amount of variance in there...

So you're including '15-'16 in these numbers?

Due to Crosby and/or Malkin being out of the lineup for most of the first half, McCann hasn't spent most of his time in the bottom 6 this season - his TOI/G with the Pens is up almost two minutes over his career average. Coincidentally, he's having a career year...

Allow me to alter my phrasing. When I say "top 6", I mean playing with Crosby or Malkin, since that's how I'm judging Zucker's production.

 

[xlm34]

Yup.. another Rust at 2 million dollars more per.

I mean at his current production, Rust is probably underpaid so...

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Ok so since he started playing full seasons take out his worst/best season and per 82 he averages 23 goals, 47 points. That’s what you should be looking at. He’s going to get less PP time but will be on a more offensive team.

It seems we weight those 2 factors much differently. Zucker's going to see slightly less PP time, judging from Bjugstad and McCann's numbers, but he's going to be playing with far better linemates.

I don't see those two factors evening out, but YMMV. Even if they do...that's still got Zucker putting up more than 45 points (and again, he was producing on pace for 25+ goals and 50+ points this year). He simply shouldn't be putting up fewer points here than in Minny.

 

[Turin]

I mean at his current production, Rust is probably underpaid so...

3.5 mil for 90 points? Nah seems fair.

 

[LOGiK]

3.5 mil for 90 points? Nah seems fair.

Pacing 90...

 

[Gurglesons]

Imagine being upset about “getting another Rust”..

 

[HandshakeLine]

Imagine being upset about “getting another Rust”..

No shit!

“Goddamn it, another speedy winger whose reliable production is a bargain. Christ, I really hope we don’t find a top 4 blueliner with top 2 upside on an ELC!”

 

[PensandCaps]

He scored 50% more goals in 2018 than in his next best year.

had 5 empty netters too

 

[Allie Kitsune]

Maybe I'm just too hung up on numbers and not context, but "Career 45 pt. player" sounds more like a 3rd liner (a good one, but still) than a 2nd.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Maybe I'm just too hung up on numbers and not context, but "Career 45 pt. player" sounds more like a 3rd liner (a good one, but still) than a 2nd.

I think the issue is less the ability to put up 45 points, but consistency.

 

[Peat]

Maybe I'm just too hung up on numbers and not context, but "Career 45 pt. player" sounds more like a 3rd liner (a good one, but still) than a 2nd.

This day and age there's not enough 45 point forwards for every team to have a top 6 composed entirely of them (might be changing with scoring trending up) and the list of guys who've got that from the third line is small.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

This day and age there's not enough 45 point forwards for every team to have a top 6 composed entirely of them (might be changing with scoring trending up) and the list of guys who've got that from the third line is small.

We're not just any team though. We're a contender built around offense.

I guess that's the difference between technically being a top 6 player by league standards, and being a good top 6 option for a team with championship aspirations.

 

[Allie Kitsune]

We're not just any team though. We're a contender built around offense.

I guess that's the difference between technically being a top 6 player by league standards, and being a good top 6 option for a team with championship aspirations.

Like, I keep thinking that a top-tier team's forward pt. distribution should be looking something like :

75/100/75
60/80/60
40/50/40
25/30/25

 

[Fogel]

Your hypothetical fwd group scores 660 goals. Only 121 forwards scored 45 points last year.

TB last year had descending point orders of 128/98/92/48/47/47/40/39/34/26/20/17 totaled 636 points from their top 12 fwds. Team was 1st in scoring.
CGY last year: 99/82/78/77/47/38/34/32/27/19/19/18 = 570 Team was 2nd in scoring.
WSH last year: 89/74/72/54/47/46/40/36/25/22/20/11 = 536 Team was 5th in scoring.

Only one team would even approach your total fwd group points so I don't think we can expect that. Also, even last years teams have plenty of forwards in the mid 40s point range in their top fwd group.

 

[Andy99]

Your hypothetical fwd group scores 660 goals. Only 121 forwards scored 45 points last year.

TB last year had descending point orders of 128/98/92/48/47/47/40/39/34/26/20/17 totaled 636 points from their top 12 fwds. Team was 1st in scoring.
CGY last year: 99/82/78/77/47/38/34/32/27/19/19/18 = 570 Team was 2nd in scoring.
WSH last year: 89/74/72/54/47/46/40/36/25/22/20/11 = 536 Team was 5th in scoring.

Only one team would even approach your total fwd group points so I don't think we can expect that. Also, even last years teams have plenty of forwards in the mid 40s point range in their top fwd group.

True, teams are not going to have all 6 players in the top 6 above 50 points...but what your list shows is that to be a top contending team, you probably need to have at least three players who get 70 points or more...do we have that this year? No, and please don’t cite injuries....we’ll probably only have Geno, as Rust is tailing off hard...not good enough

 

[Tom Hanks]

True, teams are not going to have all 6 players in the top 6 above 50 points...but what your list shows is that to be a top contending team, you probably need to have at least three players who get 70 points or more...do we have that this year? No, and please don’t cite injuries....we’ll probably only have Geno, as Rust is tailing off hard...not good enough

13th June 2016, Sidney Crosby

“Unfortunately we cannot accept this Stanley Cup as we only had one player with 70 or more points during the season. We apologise for our regular season individual performances and hope to bounce back from this”.

 

[Fogel]

Pittsburgh is 8th in scoring despite the injuries. Last year there were 51 fwds with 70 points and 30 fwds that had more than a PPG with significant games played, but you still expect 3 70 pt forwards from the Pens? You know what else you need to score a bunch of points? Games. Those players you are pointing out played 82/82/82/79/81/78/81/80/80 games. How many Pens are even going to be able to play that many games? You are expecting performance despite the lost time.

 

[Andy99]

Pittsburgh is 8th in scoring despite the injuries. Last year there were 51 fwds with 70 points and 30 fwds that had more than a PPG with significant games played, but you still expect 3 70 pt forwards from the Pens? You know what else you need to score a bunch of points? Games. Those players you are pointing out played 82/82/82/79/81/78/81/80/80 games. How many Pens are even going to be able to play that many games? You are expecting performance despite the lost time.

yes, because the problem is we’re not that deep either and the scoring we built that number on, i.e. Jake, is missing the rest of the season...when you look at say, the Blues last year or Carolina, while they only had one player over 70 points, they had a whopping 13 players with 10 or more goals...the Pens have 9 rn and we’d have to hope Simon or Blueger can pot a few more to even to get to 10...so imo our 8th in scoring, which has dropped btw from 6th over the last month, was built on that amazing Jake-G-Rust line, Sid’s hot start and Rust’s amazing year...Jake is gone, Rust has quieted and Sid is not the same back from injury...we’ll be dropping to probably 10th or lower by the year’s end if things continue as is and Zucker can’t get on a streak or Rust can’t return to his 19 shooting %

 

[Peat]

We're not just any team though. We're a contender built around offense.

I guess that's the difference between technically being a top 6 player by league standards, and being a good top 6 option for a team with championship aspirations.

Like, I keep thinking that a top-tier team's forward pt. distribution should be looking something like :

75/100/75
60/80/60
40/50/40
25/30/25

Here's the point distribution for Tampa's forwards last season, arguably the most dominant and offensively potent RS team we've seen post-salary cap

128/98/92/48/47/47/40/39/34/26/20/17

Here's the point distribution for us 16-17, Sully's most dominant full season to date

89/72/70/53/44/37/33/31/29/28/26/22

Washington same season, the only team better than us that season and obviously a lot fitter

86/69/59/58/56/48/35/30/25/25/23/19

Couple more - Toronto, 4th for goals in 18/19

94/88/73/44/44/43/41/37/29/27/18

San Jose, 2nd the same year

74/70/66/64/56/56/51/37/30/17/16/11


The expectations here are unrealistic. Even on top offensive teams, 3rd liners don't get 45 points very often - Thornton farming 1st unit PP is how. Even on top offensive teams, there'll almost always be a 2nd liner around the 45 points mark. Even on top offensive teams, there are plenty of good options who are aren't wildly outperforming league standards.

A 2nd liner that gets 45 points, if that's a fair result for ice time opportunity, would be no bad thing for us at all.

 

[Tom Hanks]

yes, because the problem is we’re not that deep either and the scoring we built that number on, i.e. Jake, is missing the rest of the season...when you look at say, the Blues last year or Carolina, while they only had one player over 70 points, they had a whopping 13 players with 10 or more goals...the Pens have 9 rn and we’d have to hope Simon or Blueger can pot a few more to even to get to 10...so imo our 8th in scoring, which has dropped btw from 6th over the last month, was built on that amazing Jake-G-Rust line, Sid’s hot start and Rust’s amazing year...Jake is gone, Rust has quieted and Sid is not the same back from injury...we’ll be dropping to probably 10th or lower by the year’s end if things continue as is and Zucker can’t get on a streak or Rust can’t return to his 19 shooting %

Quiet Rust has 13 points in 16 games in 2020. Not the same Sid has 14 points in his 10 games back.

Might as well chuck in the towel.

 

[Andy99]

Quiet Rust has 13 points in 16 games in 2020. Not the same Sid has 14 points in his 10 games back.

Might as well chuck in the towel.

check Rust’s stats the last four games...

 

[Tom Hanks]

check Rust’s stats the last four games...

Yeah I saw that buts it’s a pretty small sample size. I wouldn’t be making trends out of that