Confirmed with Link: Zucker to the Pens for 1st round pick, Gally, and Addison Part Duex

[Tom Hanks]

I don't expect Zucker to score 30 goals. I expect 25+ goals and 50+ points annually. Christ, he was already on pace for that with Minny this year.

This "20-25 goals and 40-45 points" projection is low. We already have far younger, cheaper wingers who project to put up better numbers than that, and are presumably bumping one of them out of a top 6 spot to accommodate Zucker.

I don’t really care if he was a low 20’s goal scorer and around 45 points. As long as the team and his line is playing well.

25+ goals and 50+ points has only been achieved by wingers who were on PP1 (except 1 season for Jake). So you’re expectations maybe off according to history.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Over the last 4 years, Zucker has averaged 26 goals and 52 points per 82 games with Minnesota.

If his production drops by 5 goals and 10 points a year going from the Wild to the Pens with a huge upgrade in teammates, of course there is legitimate cause for disappointment.

What's the average in the years that aren't clear outliers above the other years?

His typical year is below 25 and 50. I'd expect in the 45-50 point range and wouldn't be surprised with 55. I'd be surprised with more than that because he's only ever done it once.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

What's the average in the years that aren't clear outliers above the other years?

His typical year is below 25 and 50.

Outliers happen in both directions. Last year was an outlier in the other direction, with career lows in goals and points over a full season.

In his only other full season he had 22 goals and 47 points, and this year he's on pace for 26 goals and 53 points.

He's getting a colossal upgrade in linemates. His totals should not be regressing.

 

[Turin]

What's the average in the years that aren't clear outliers above the other years?

His typical year is below 25 and 50. I'd expect in the 45-50 point range and wouldn't be surprised with 55. I'd be surprised with more than that because he's only ever done it once.

His 2018 season isn’t a clear outlier.

 

[Ogrezilla]

His 2018 season isn’t a clear outlier.

He scored 50% more goals in 2018 than in his next best year.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I don’t really care if he was a low 20’s goal scorer and around 45 points. As long as the team and his line is playing well.

25+ goals and 50+ points has only been achieved by wingers who were on PP1 (except 1 season for Jake). So you’re expectations maybe off according to history.

This is based on Zucker's history, including this year, where he's not on PP1 but projecting to score more than 25 goals and 50 points.

His reputation is that of a scoring winger who doesn't need #1PP time to produce. If he can't do that at a higher level than Kahun or McCann, then the trade's got some serious warts.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Outliers happen in both directions. Last year was an outlier in the other direction, with career lows in goals and points over a full season.

In his only other full season he had 22 goals and 47 points, and this year he's on pace for 26 goals and 53 points.

He's getting a colossal upgrade in linemates. His totals should not be regressing.

I hate the expectation that everyone's going to be better here than they were before coming here.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I hate the expectation that everyone's going to be better here than they were before coming here.

He was literally on pace to hit the numbers I projected this year with Minny.

Why isn't it reasonable to expect a winger to slightly up his production when he's going from Minnesota with Staal to Pittsburgh with Crosby/Malkin? We're a better offensive team with much better centers.

 

[OnMyOwn]

 

[pistolpete11]

40P at ES for Zucker is fine. The problem is if his $5.5M cap hit forces them to trade McCann or Kahun who are significantly younger, cheaper, producing similarly, and in McCann's case, is more versatile.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I'm still super stoked for Zucker to be a Penguin for several years. The guy's just another Rust.

Zucker-Geno-Rust should be the 2nd line come October, and for years to come. That line's gonna be unreal.

 

[pistolpete11]

This is based on Zucker's history, including this year, where he's not on PP1 but projecting to score more than 25 goals and 50 points.

His reputation is that of a scoring winger who doesn't need #1PP time to produce. If he can't do that at a higher level than Kahun or McCann, then the trade's got some serious warts.

He has 9 points on their second PP in 45 games? That's almost more than Jake had all of last year (11 in 82 and I'm sure there's some 1PP time mixed in there as well).

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

He has 9 points on their second PP in 45 games? That's almost more than Jake had all of last year (11 in 82 and I'm sure there's some 1PP time mixed in there as well).

NHL.com Stats

Yup.

 

[Peat]

Zucker had 105 PP minutes on the season before coming here. He wasn't a PP1 fixture in Minnesota that I was aware of, but he clearly did have sustained time on the unit which marries up with written reports. He had 181 and 179 minutes there the two seasons before. Without knowing whether he'll get that sort of time here - the smart money is on no barring ruinous injuries - it is unfair to state categorically whether he should meet previous all strength points totals that were formed on the back of them.

Zucker has shown that if on a team that provides enough shooting opportunities, he will make 20 5v5 goals a season. You'd like to believe 20 assists could happen on a strong scoring team, that's happened before. 35-45 points at 5v5 is a fair expectation for being non disappointing, with the total being slanted towards goals.

Higher than that will absolutely depend on PP time and, while points totals are inflated this season and maybe traditional grades of expectation need to be shifted, generally only the top 90 or so forwards in the league get 40 or so 5v5 points, which makes it a fair return for a 1st liner.

Maybe it's impact we're missing?

It felt like, over the last couple years, our top players seemed to have multi point nights on the same night.

So like Sid Geno Phil all had two points in like a 6-1 win.

Then do nothing the collectively the next two games.

I wish there were an easy way to look that up.

Just seemed like getting a bunch of points in a blowout is way less effective than in tight games when a goal is really needed.

The "easy" way to do that would be to go to hockey reference, take their scoring logs and export to Excel, then start using conditional rules to start working out the number of games that were multi-point, number overall they scored in, etc.etc. And then do it for about another 10 stars to have a good idea whether their results correspond with other teams.

Okay that's not easy at all...

 

[Tom Hanks]

This is based on Zucker's history, including this year, where he's not on PP1 but projecting to score more than 25 goals and 50 points.

His reputation is that of a scoring winger who doesn't need #1PP time to produce. If he can't do that at a higher level than Kahun or McCann, then the trade's got some serious warts.

They are all fairly similar in even strength production as far as Kahun’s career, McCann’s time in Pitt and Zucker last 3.5 seasons.

So even if they are close I don’t see a problem they produce at good rates at even strength. We needed the help and we got more help.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Zucker had 105 PP minutes on the season before coming here. He wasn't a PP1 fixture in Minnesota that I was aware of, but he clearly did have sustained time on the unit which marries up with written reports. He had 181 and 179 minutes there the two seasons before. Without knowing whether he'll get that sort of time here - the smart money is on no barring ruinous injuries - it is unfair to state categorically whether he should meet previous all strength points totals that were formed on the back of them.

Zucker has shown that if on a team that provides enough shooting opportunities, he will make 20 5v5 goals a season. You'd like to believe 20 assists could happen on a strong scoring team, that's happened before. 35-45 points at 5v5 is a fair expectation for being non disappointing, with the total being slanted towards goals.

Higher than that will absolutely depend on PP time and, while points totals are inflated this season and maybe traditional grades of expectation need to be shifted, generally only the top 90 or so forwards in the league get 40 or so 5v5 points, which makes it a fair return for a 1st liner.



The "easy" way to do that would be to go to hockey reference, take their scoring logs and export to Excel, then start using conditional rules to start working out the number of games that were multi-point, number overall they scored in, etc.etc. And then do it for about another 10 stars to have a good idea whether their results correspond with other teams.

Okay that's not easy at all...

Zucker should be one of the first options to step into PP1 duties if (when) there are injuries at forward.

Let's be real: these are the Penguins. There are going to be ruinous injuries.

They are all fairly similar in even strength production as far as Kahun’s career, McCann’s time in Pitt and Zucker last 3.5 seasons.

So even if they are close I don’t see a problem they produce at good rates at even strength. We needed the help and we got more help.

Zucker had 46 ES points in '16-'17 and '17-'18. Last year was considered a down year by virtually everyone.

Personally, I think he should be closer to those numbers at ES than Kahun or McCann's totals if he's getting regular time with Sid and Geno and they aren't.

 

[Peat]

Zucker should be one of the first options to step into PP1 duties if (when) there are injuries at forward.

Let's be real: these are the Penguins. There are going to be ruinous injuries.

If you consider PP1's forwards to be Rust-Horny-Crosby-Malkin...

Next forward up is Guentzel. Obviously it's a little easier for Zucker to get on at the moment because that's already out, but long term Zucker needs two forward injuries minimum. Beyond that? If its Rust there's a case for maybe sourcing a second RH shot rather than sticking Zucker out there; if its Hornqvist, there's a case for a more robust net front forward (if we have one). If its two of Crosby/Malkin/Guentzel out then yeah, should be Zucker next (its him or McCann, McCann's shot maybe makes a case if its Malkin but I'd prefer Zucker). But the PP is kinda in nasty condition if its two of them.

So even with our record of excellence in the field of getting injured, its still not straightforwards.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Zucker should be one of the first options to step into PP1 duties if (when) there are injuries at forward.

Let's be real: these are the Penguins. There are going to be ruinous injuries.



Zucker had 46 ES points in '16-'17 and '17-'18. Last year was considered a down year by virtually everyone.

Personally, I think he should be closer to those numbers at ES than Kahun or McCann's totals if he's getting regular time with Sid and Geno and they aren't.

Kahun is good anywhere at producing. He’s just Mr Efficient. Yeah if McCann isn’t playing in the top 6 I’d expect more from Zucker if he is.

If Zucker is closer to those numbers great. If not but he’s still playing well and his line is clicking that’s good too.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

If you consider PP1's forwards to be Rust-Horny-Crosby-Malkin...

Next forward up is Guentzel. Obviously it's a little easier for Zucker to get on at the moment because that's already out, but long term Zucker needs two forward injuries minimum. Beyond that? If its Rust there's a case for maybe sourcing a second RH shot rather than sticking Zucker out there; if its Hornqvist, there's a case for a more robust net front forward (if we have one). If its two of Crosby/Malkin/Guentzel out then yeah, should be Zucker next (its him or McCann, McCann's shot maybe makes a case if its Malkin but I'd prefer Zucker). But the PP is kinda in nasty condition if its two of them.

So even with our record of excellence in the field of getting injured, its still not straightforwards.

Zucker averaged between 2:11 and 2:19 PPTOI/G time in each of the last 3 years. Bjugstad and McCann average 1:37 this year.

I don't see any good reason why Zucker, between the regular forward injuries and cycling the guy in when the PP gets stale, couldn't get around 2 minutes of PPTOI/G a season here.

 

[Peat]

Zucker averaged between 2:11 and 2:19 PPTOI/G time in each of the last 3 years. Bjugstad and McCann average 1:37 this year.

I don't see any good reason why Zucker, between the regular forward injuries and cycling the guy in when the PP gets stale, couldn't get around 2 minutes of PPTOI/G a season here.

Then you're more of an optimist than me. Or maybe that's more of a pessimist about injuries...

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Kahun is good anywhere at producing. He’s just Mr Efficient. Yeah if McCann isn’t playing in the top 6 I’d expect more from Zucker if he is.

If Zucker is closer to those numbers great. If not but he’s still playing well and his line is clicking that’s good too.

If a line's clicking that's great, but it's 5.5 mil per in a role that we'd be able to fill for a far lesser cap hit if Zucker can't outproduce his competition despite being in a far more advantageous position.

Ultimately we just want the Pens to play well and win. But it's reasonable to expect Zucker to at least produce like he did in Minnesota, and ideally more since he's with a pair of generational centers now.

 

[Dennis Reynolds]

I actually really like her. She's thoughtful and well-spoken.

 

[Freeptop]

Because the post I was responding to said 20-25 goals and 40-45 points, and that would be the low end of Zucker's production on the Wild, without being on Minnesota's #1 PP and playing with far lesser centers and a far less potent offensive team than he'll be playing with here.

If we're going to require both 20+ goals and 40+ points, the number of players who hit that mark last season is even fewer.
Contrary to popular belief, simply playing with Crosby or Malkin doesn't guarantee a bump in point production. Especially since the #1 PP unit is hard to crack, and it gets the overwhelming bulk of the PP minutes.

In terms of Zucker's career indicating where he should be - I took his games played, goals scored, points scored, and converted into 82-game paces for his entire career.
Mean goals per 82-game season: 20.3
Mean points per 82-game season: 38.1
Median goals per 82-game season: 21.3
Median points per 82-game season: 41.8

Stripping out his first three partial seasons where he was back and forth in the AHL and NHL:
Mean goals: 25.1
Mean points: 45.9
Median goals: 23.9
Median points: 45.7
Standard deviation is 6.57 for goals, and 11.34 for points, so there's a fair amount of variance in there...

Basically, 20-25 goals and 40-45 points per season is pretty much his career averages, albeit he's usually on the higher end of that range.

****ing McCann is on pace for 22 goals and 48 points this year despite playing the majority of his time without Crosby or Malkin.

So yes, I expect more production out of Zucker - a scoring winger making 5.5 mil per who will be stapled to Crosby and Malkin's hips - than McCann, who's spent most of his time in the bottom 6.

Due to Crosby and/or Malkin being out of the lineup for most of the first half, McCann hasn't spent most of his time in the bottom 6 this season - his TOI/G with the Pens is up almost two minutes over his career average. Coincidentally, he's having a career year...

 

[Coastal Kev]

I'm still super stoked for Zucker to be a Penguin for several years. The guy's just another Rust.

Zucker-Geno-Rust should be the 2nd line come October, and for years to come. That line's gonna be unreal.

Yup.. another Rust at 2 million dollars more per.

 

[Tom Hanks]

If a line's clicking that's great, but it's 5.5 mil per in a role that we'd be able to fill for a far lesser cap hit if Zucker can't outproduce his competition despite being in a far more advantageous position.

Ultimately we just want the Pens to play well and win. But it's reasonable to expect Zucker to at least produce like he did in Minnesota, and ideally more since he's with a pair of generational centers now.

Ok so since he started playing full seasons take out his worst/best season and per 82 he averages 23 goals, 47 points. That’s what you should be looking at. He’s going to get less PP time but will be on a more offensive team.