Confirmed with Link: Zucker to the Pens for 1st round pick, Gally, and Addison Part Duex

[Empoleon8771]

Prime kunitz as a minimum is just a ridiculous bar. Dude was really damn good.

Why should Zucker not be held up to that standard? The expectation should be that Zucker should be at that level, because Zucker is that good and they paid a lot for him.

Zucker is an established top-6 winger who averaged basically 20 ES goals and 40 ES points per 82 games with the Wild. The Penguins traded a lot for him. If he's not even capable of breaking what he did in Minnesota, while playing for a defensive team without a great 1C, the Penguins made a bad trade. Holding Zucker to be on par with prime Kunitz is not a ridiculous bar because he's supposed to be that good. If expecting Zucker to produce like Kunitz is a "ridiculous bar", why even trade for Zucker when you already have Kahun? You already have a LWer that's producing at the kind of numbers thrown in here for Zucker, and they didn't trade a 1st and Addison for that LWer.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Why should Zucker not be held up to that standard? The expectation should be that Zucker should be at that level, because Zucker is that good and they paid a lot for him.

What they paid for him shouldn't mean shit. Zucker is Zucker and his cost is irrelevant now that he's here. Expecting any significant bump in production coming here would be cool, but I don't know that it's fair to expect it. I expect him to be good. If he's 2016-2018 Rust good, I won't be shocked and he will make us a better team. If he's prime kunitz good I'd be thrilled because that's a super good player.

 

[Turin]

What they paid for him shouldn't mean ****. Zucker is Zucker and his cost is irrelevant now that he's here. Expecting any significant bump in production coming here would be cool, but I don't know that it's fair to expect it. I expect him to be good. If he's 2016-2018 Rust good, I won't be shocked and he will make us a better team. If he's prime kunitz good I'd be thrilled because that's a super good player.

He’s better than Rust prior to this season by quite a lot, without a shadow of doubt.

 

[Empoleon8771]

What they paid for him shouldn't mean ****. Zucker is Zucker and his cost is irrelevant now that he's here. Expecting any significant bump in production coming here would be cool, but I don't know that it's fair to expect it. I expect him to be good. If he's 2016-2018 Rust good, I won't be shocked and he will make us a better team. If he's prime kunitz good I'd be thrilled because that's a super good player.

...what? That's just nonsense.

If you pay a 1st and a B prospect for a top-6 winger, he better produce more than the guy you got for a cap dump Olli Maatta. The numbers being thrown around in here don't even have Zucker outproducing what Kahun has been able to do this year. If Zucker is only 2016-2018 Rust good, they made a bad trade because 2016-2018 Rust is completely not worth what they paid. The expectation should be that he's prime Kunitz good because he's supposed to be prime Kunitz good, they paid a ton for him and he makes a lot of money. Zucker over the last 4 years has been a terrific analytical player that produces at 1st line rates. The expectation for him should be continuing to be that, because that's what they paid for.

 

[Ogrezilla]

He’s better than Rust prior to this season by quite a lot, without a shadow of doubt.

Eh. He's been healthier, so his totals are higher. The per game stats look close.

 

[Ogrezilla]

...what? That's just nonsense.

If you pay a 1st and a B prospect for a top-6 winger, he better produce more than the guy you got for a cap dump Olli Maatta. The numbers being thrown around in here don't even have Zucker outproducing what Kahun has been able to do this year. If Zucker is only 2016-2018 Rust good, they made a bad trade because 2016-2018 Rust is completely not worth what they paid. The expectation should be that he's prime Kunitz good because he's supposed to be prime Kunitz good, they paid a ton for him and he makes a lot of money. Zucker over the last 4 years has been a terrific analytical player that produces at 1st line rates. The expectation for him should be continuing to be that, because that's what they paid for.

Those are all good ways to judge the trade JR made. Zucker didn't trade himself though.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Those are all good ways to judge the trade JR made. Zucker didn't trade himself though.

Zucker should be expected to be a Prime Kunitz caliber player because that's what he was before being traded to the Penguins, and he's getting put in a dramatically better position to succeed in Pittsburgh than he was in Minnesota. It's not that Zucker should be expected to be prime Kunitz because they paid a lot for him, he should be expected to be prime Kunitz caliber because he's supposed to be prime Kunitz caliber and has been prime Kunitz caliber for the last 4 years with Minnesota.

The trade becomes bad if Zucker can't maintain that level. Zucker not trading himself doesn't change the fact that he has the expectations of performing to his pedigree, and him just being "good" isn't good enough. Just like Kessel being a PPG player last year wasn't good enough.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

I was always more of a proponent for Saad than Zucker, but I can live with the Zucker trade and look forward to him doing good things in a Penguins uniform.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Zucker should be expected to be a Prime Kunitz caliber player because that's what he was before being traded to the Penguins, and he's getting put in a dramatically better position to succeed in Pittsburgh than he was in Minnesota. It's not that Zucker should be expected to be prime Kunitz because they paid a lot for him, he should be expected to be prime Kunitz caliber because he's supposed to be prime Kunitz caliber and has been prime Kunitz caliber for the last 4 years with Minnesota.

The trade becomes bad if Zucker can't maintain that level. Zucker not trading himself doesn't change the fact that he has the expectations of performing to his pedigree, and him just being "good" isn't good enough. Just like Kessel being a PPG player last year wasn't good enough.

He's score over 25 goals or 50 points once. If a 45 point guy keeps putting 45 points how can you be surprised or disappointed?

 

[Empoleon8771]

He's score over 25 goals or 50 points once. You then said you expect him to be a 55 point guy here or be disappointing. If a 45 point guy keeps putting 45 points how can you be surprised or disappointed?

Zucker hit 22 goals and 47 points in 2016-2017 and was on pace for 26 goals and 53 points this year. Over the last 4 years, Zucker has 90 goals and 182 points in 288 games. That's 26 goals and 52 points per 82 games. Come on, you know that's a cop out response.

Zucker is going from a defense first team that didn't have a true 1C to an offense first team that has 2 elite 1Cs. If he can't even beat out Kahun's production, which he wouldn't with the numbers thrown out in here on the last page, it was stupid to trade for him. The expectation should completely be that he's what he was in Minnesota plus the boost from going from Minnesota to Pittsburgh. The expectations thrown out for him on the last page paint him as a Kahun caliber player, and he's supposed to be better than that based on his track record, his cap hit and what the Penguins paid for him. The expectation should be that he's better than that.

 

[Turin]

Eh. He's been healthier, so his totals are higher. The per game stats look close.

Not counting before 2017 since both players grew offensively after that:
Zucker’s ppg after 2016 is .63
Rust’s ppg from 2017-2019 was .51

Zucker was also better defensively in that time, and didn’t play with Sid and Geno (though his linemates weren’t trash)

 

[Ogrezilla]

Zucker hit 22 goals and 47 points in 2016-2017 and was on pace for 26 goals and 53 points this year. Over the last 4 years, Zucker has 90 goals and 182 points in 288 games. That's 26 goals and 52 points per 82 games. Come on, you know that's a cop out response.

Zucker is going from a defense first team that didn't have a true 1C to an offense first team that has 2 elite 1Cs. If he can't even beat out Kahun's production, which he wouldn't with the numbers thrown out in here on the last page, it was stupid to trade for him. The expectation should completely be that he's what he was in Minnesota plus the boost from going from Minnesota to Pittsburgh. The expectations thrown out for him on the last page paint him as a Kahun caliber player, and he's supposed to be better than that based on his track record, his cap hit and what the Penguins paid for him. The expectation should be that he's better than that.

You're averaging in a year that is a clear outlier, but I'm making a genuinely bad argument. Nice. At that point you need to average in this year for Rust too. It doesn't represent what he's done at all, but sure factor it in.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Not counting before 2017 since both players grew offensively after that:
Zucker’s ppg after 2016 is .63
Rust’s ppg from 2017-2019 was .51

Zucker was also better defensively in that time, and didn’t play with Sid and Geno (though his linemates weren’t trash)

But that's factoring in zuckers version of 2020 rusts season. His 33 goal season just isn't representative of who he is as a player.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You're averaging in a year that is a clear outlier, but I'm making a genuinely bad argument. Nice. At that point you need to average in this year for Rust too. It doesn't represent what he's done at all, but sure factor it in.

What does Rust have to do with this discussion at all? Rust is irrelevant from this discussion. That "outlier" year with Zucker was the only year he played with a true 1C caliber player, you can't just get rid of that season entirely. And if you're saying that's an "outlier" year, why was his 2018-2019 not an outlier? He had a shooting% of 9.8% that year, compared to an average of 12.5%. He had an ES on ice shooting% of 6.0%, compared to a career average of 9.1%.

In reality, what's going on in here is that people got bit by putting way too high of expectations on Brassard, so they're putting lower expectations on Zucker so they don't end up disappointed. That's exactly what's going on. Based on how he performed in Minnesota, Zucker is a better player than people in here are giving him credit for. That's what the expectations should be for him.

 

[Turin]

But that's factoring in zuckers version of 2020 rusts season.

Yes, because that’s who Zucker is. Rust this year is a legitimate top line winger, you were comparing him to Rust before. He didn’t have a sky high shooting percentage that season, nor is his ppg of .78 that year that far off from his .6 this year, unlike Rust who has more than doubled his production.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

He's score over 25 goals or 50 points once. If a 45 point guy keeps putting 45 points how can you be surprised or disappointed?

I will be pretty darn happy if:

-He puts up 20G/40 pts at ES in the next few years, maybe a couple in garbage PP time
-Sid will skate with him

My expectations will be met if:

-He puts up 15g and 35 pts at ES
-He ends up with Geno, and the line needs to be sheltered

I will be unhappy if he has no chemistry with anyone and gets pushed to the 3rd/4th line and is complaining about low ice time and no PP time by next year and gets traded for some reclamation project under contract for years and years.

All of these are possible.

The best possible outcome is that he fits with Sid well enough opposite Simon, and those two can handle possession and transition sufficiently to make the line a functional, productive, possession line. Then Jake can play with Geno and Rust giving him the support he needs next year. I don't even care if Zucker scores 45 ES points or not, I just want his line to work well enough that we can have plenty of forward depth.

In general, people need to keep their expectations in check this year. I just hope he chips in a few, backchecks, and doesn't piss Sid off.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Why? Scoring 20 goals in a season puts players pretty firmly in top six territory. Last season there where 121 forwards who scored 20 goals or more. There were 186 top six forward positions to fill.

I sometimes wonder what people's expectations are for scoring goals in the NHL. Yes, teams sometimes put a 20+ goal scorer on the third or fourth lines in order to force favorable matchups, but in order to do that, they end up putting < 20 goal scorers in the top six in return.

For example, in the 2016 playoffs, the Pens had Kessel on the third line, but in return, they had Sheary, Rust and Kunitz in the top six. Sheary had 7 goals (on pace for 14), Rust had 4 (on pace for 8), while Kunitz had 17 goals. For that matter, that Stanley Cup winning team only had four players in total that scored over 20 goals that season (Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Hornqvist).

So I really don't understand why Zucker being a 20 goal scorer on this team would be "a major disappointment."

Maybe we've just all been spoiled by 2017, when the Pens had 7 forwards who either hit 20+ goals (Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Sheary and Hornqvist) or were on pace for 20+ goals over 82 games (Guentzel and Rust). I'll just note that Kessel played on Malkin's line in the 2017 playoffs, and it was Rust who was moved down to the third line that year.

Why? Kessel averaged 19 ES goals in his four season doing that. And was making substantially more money.

Because the post I was responding to said 20-25 goals and 40-45 points, and that would be the low end of Zucker's production on the Wild, without being on Minnesota's #1 PP and playing with far lesser centers and a far less potent offensive team than he'll be playing with here.

f***ing McCann is on pace for 22 goals and 48 points this year despite playing the majority of his time without Crosby or Malkin.

So yes, I expect more production out of Zucker - a scoring winger making 5.5 mil per who will be stapled to Crosby and Malkin's hips - than McCann, who's spent most of his time in the bottom 6.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

He's score over 25 goals or 50 points once. If a 45 point guy keeps putting 45 points how can you be surprised or disappointed?

Over the last 4 years, Zucker has averaged 26 goals and 52 points per 82 games with Minnesota.

If his production drops by 5 goals and 10 points a year going from the Wild to the Pens with a huge upgrade in teammates, of course there is legitimate cause for disappointment.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Well that would be a major disappointment for a winger who'll be playing 90% of his time with one of Crosby or Malkin.

We’ve had a winger score 30 goals 4 times since Crosby was drafted (2005/06). None multiple times. It’s pretty rare.

 

[LOGiK]

What does Rust have to do with this discussion at all? Rust is irrelevant from this discussion. That "outlier" year with Zucker was the only year he played with a true 1C caliber player, you can't just get rid of that season entirely. And if you're saying that's an "outlier" year, why was his 2018-2019 not an outlier? He had a shooting% of 9.8% that year, compared to an average of 12.5%. He had an ES on ice shooting% of 6.0%, compared to a career average of 9.1%.

In reality, what's going on in here is that people got bit by putting way too high of expectations on Brassard, so they're putting lower expectations on Zucker so they don't end up disappointed. That's exactly what's going on. Based on how he performed in Minnesota, Zucker is a better player than people in here are giving him credit for. That's what the expectations should be for him.

I agree. It's fun to read peoples expectations of players (post Brassard and Galy expectations). But just watching one game of Zucker if he played that good last night, with only 2 or so forced pass turnovers and 2 or 3 handsy bobbles, he played a very impressive game for being his first game with Crosby.

It seems people forget players playing on Sid's line get extremely nervous when playing with him. A few players have said that... they try doing way too much or play off their game to accommodate Sid and get all out of whack.

So being thrown right into this team and looking heaps better acclimated to this teams style of play than Galchenyak ever has... shows me Zucker should fit in perfect with this team and be very productive with Sid.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

We’ve had a winger score 30 goals 4 times since Crosby was drafted (2005/06). None multiple times. It’s pretty rare.

I don't expect Zucker to score 30 goals. I expect 25+ goals and 50+ points annually. Christ, he was already on pace for that with Minny this year.

This "20-25 goals and 40-45 points" projection is low. We already have far younger, cheaper wingers who project to put up better numbers than that, and are presumably bumping one of them out of a top 6 spot to accommodate Zucker.

 

[canadianguy77]

Judging by last night, Zucker is going to be fine. He had some looks, and you can see the intelligence is there. Give the guy a handful of games at least to get adjusted.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

Over the last 4 years, Zucker has averaged 26 goals and 52 points per 82 games with Minnesota.

If his production drops by 5 goals and 10 points a year going from the Wild to the Pens with a huge upgrade in teammates, of course there is legitimate cause for disappointment.

Coming off an injury, new team, new system, tons of pressure because of the big haul of assets we just sent out and big cap number, very little PP time, moving away from home and family, etc etc. These things affect human beings. And forwards peak production-wise at 25 years old, and really start to drop off at 28. I'm hoping better linemates offsets some or all of this.

I am with you that we should have gotten more for all those assets and that cap space, but JR is over a barrel right now, and everyone knows it. So at this point I'm just rooting for the best possible outcome, and that's just solid two-way play in the top 6, and continued good effort and attitude.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Coming off an injury, new team, new system, tons of pressure because of the big haul of assets we just sent out and big cap number, very little PP time, moving away from home and family, etc etc. These things affect human beings. And forwards peak production-wise at 25 years old, and really start to drop off at 28. I'm hoping better linemates offsets some or all of this.

I am with you that we should have gotten more for all those assets and that cap space, but JR is over a barrel right now, and everyone knows it. So at this point I'm just rooting for the best possible outcome, and that's just solid two-way play in the top 6, and continued good effort and attitude.

I don't think that's necessarily true. Zucker wasn't one of my top choices, and we paid a fair bit, but that's the deadline for you.

As for the extenuating circumstances - nah. Every traded player goes through these things. The deal can't be considered worthwhile if his production regresses.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

First of all, if you take Zucker's outlier season away, his career high in goals is 22 and points is 47. The Crosby and Malkin factor as we should all know by now, doesn't really exist, so anyone using that as an argument is flawed as hell.

A quick glance at his stats tells me Zucker isn't really more than a 45 point, 20+ goal guy and thats all he needs to be...

However, all that matters to me is how he produces in the playoffs. I don't care about him being some 50 or 60 point winger, just be a money player, because that's why they traded for you.

The trade will be judged on if he excels in the playoffs or not.

The rest is just noise about him putting up more than what his stats say he is.