Rumor: Zetterberg’s contract to Tampa

[Syckle78]

I feel like in these scenarios the return is never as good as Wings fans think it will be and it’ll be more than Tampa fans think they have to give up.

So literally every trade ever.

 

[Leadzedder]

So what? Having someone on the LTIR doesn't magically give you extra cap space. It gives you the ability to use the cap space that originally was dedicated for their contract for other players. The part he left out was that Toronto would need to send a player back in return. If they are at the cap ceiling taking on Z on its own wouldn't do anything except eat in to the 10% they can be over by at the beginning of the season. They would need to send back a player with a substantial cap hit and likely a prospect/pick to entice a team to take the high cap hit player.

The issue here seems to be you're double counting the cap relief.

Maybe I am. Maybe I’m wrong. I’m at least starting to get confused. Then why do teams seek out ltir contracts like the link mentions if there’s no benefit?

henkka... need your expertise.

I believe in those Toronto examples those contracts were sought out for cap purposes. Why would they do that?



Anyway, from this thread and others it seems I’m wrong how it works so I’ll take the L.

 

[Shaman464]

Maybe I am. Maybe I’m wrong. I’m at least starting to get confused. Then why do teams seek out ltir contracts like the link mentions if there’s no benefit?

henkka... need your expertise.

I believe in those Toronto examples those contracts were sought out for cap purposes. Why would they do that?



Anyway, from this thread and others it seems I’m wrong how it works so I’ll take the L.

The basis of these trades in the offseason usually are because of one of a couple reasons.

1. A high cap team is trading a lower owed salary/higher cap to a team that is near the floor for a lower cap LTIR'd player whose salary is closer to cap hit. Usually a prospect or decent pick is added to the team floor team. This allows the high cap hit team to use less of their 10% off season cushion, and means they have more LTIR space in the regular season. For the floor team they are now further from the floor, but also have the same or lower actual salary.

2. A team that near the ceiling trades a high cap hit player (irrespective of term/actual salary owed) to a rebuilding team along with a basket of picks/prospects. Usually this is done with cap hit moving purely in one direction, though, sometimes an LTIR player with a short term left might go back for roster limit reasons. If this is the case it lowers the return for the rebuilding team, as the ceiling team isn't clearing the same amount of salary.

A good explanation for why Toronto would want an LTIR contract from a team can be found here:

This is a major part of the issue with LTIR, and why teams like the Chicago Blackhawks (with Marian Hossa), and Vegas Golden Knights (with Clarkson) tried so hard to move contracts they could’ve otherwise gotten LTIR relief for. It’s because the contracts are a large block of cap space that can only be recovered if the team is over the cap by at least that player’s cap hit, or right at the cap. If a team’s roster is primarily waiver eligible, they essentially have no wiggle room to maximize their relief pools.

Basically if you're not near the cap ceiling having players on the LTIR really doesn't help you. Its just dead cap space. So why not use it to get assets?

 

[Ishad]

The run up to next season is going to be wild.

Teams with a 23 man roster that are over the cap:
Vancouver
Toronto
Edmonton

Teams that are over the cap without a 23 man roster:
Arizona
Anaheim
Winnipeg
St Louis
Washington
Vegas
Tampa
Montreal (they have $383,000 to spend on two roster spots)

Teams that need to clear cap space:
NY islanders

Teams that can take on cap:
New Jersey
Nashville
Ottawa (last possible option)
Columbus
Florida
Detroit


Demand for cap relief massively exceeds availability.

 

[Shaman464]

The run up to next season is going to be wild.

Teams with a 23 man roster that are over the cap:
Vancouver
Toronto
Edmonton

Teams that are over the cap without a 23 man roster:
Arizona
Anaheim
Winnipeg
St Louis
Washington
Vegas
Tampa
Montreal (they have $383,000 to spend on two roster spots)

Teams that need to clear cap space:
NY islanders

Teams that can take on cap:
New Jersey
Nashville
Ottawa (last possible option)
Columbus
Florida


Demand for cap relief massively exceeds availability.

You forgot to add Detroit who has realistically 15 million in cap space they could leverage.

 

[Ishad]

You forgot to add Detroit who has realistically 15 million in cap space they could leverage.

lol, edited in. Can't believe I forgot to add us.

 

[Leadzedder]

Edited / removed due to lack of knowledge / intelligence by me.

 

[Gniwder]

Yeah, they kind of do. Guys have said previously how they don't like being at the center of speculation like that, not knowing where they'll end up. And Johnson wants to play a big role. He used to do so and he wants to continue to do so, but he's rapidly falling down Tampa's depth chart as better and younger players are brought in.

There is already smoke in the news about him being cool about being traded to Detroit. Knowing it is part of the business and it is the guy who drafted/signed him who he had a good relationship with that is making the move.

And you can't just put guys on LTIR. Guys like Zetterberg? His back is f***ed. Sure, it's a bullshit workaround that the big market teams pushed through... but for Stamkos? You can't just toss him on LTIR because you feel like it. I think he may go on it too because core injuries are potentially weird... but f*** no you can't keep him on LTIR for 2/3rds of the season. You can't delay a guy's recovery that long... and if I'm Tampa? I trade Yanni Gourde for a pack of gum to be able to re-activate Stamkos if he's ready to go. I make whatever move I have to if it gets me healthy Stamkos on the roster sooner.

Like everything you're saying flies in the face of current reporting, of quotes from the players involved and players in general, and just straight up ignores the actual rules of LTIR.

What gives you the indication that Chris isn't spending money? Because the Wings didn't go balls deep into signing Krug or toss an offer at Pietrangelo? Because they signed guys like Bobby Ryan and Namestnikov for low risk, low dollar deals? There isn't actually an indication that Detroit isn't going to spend money. There is an indication that they're not going to spend money STUPIDLY. And no matter what you believe, the Abby buyout was for the roster space and allow improvement from a better player taking his place, not the total of what, 3 million they save overall by buying him out instead of having him play.

I think Tampa's hold is because they want to have all options at their disposal in talking to Cernak/Cirelli (in case they want to go long term for cheap) and IF, IF, Stamkos isn't ready by the start of the season, they retain the depth and can maybe still do their cap cleanup then. Or maybe they're wary about what's happening with the start of the season and don't want to commit to a course of action before it is 100% finalized.

TJ and Gourde know exactly where they're going to be at the start of the season. Tampa if they choose to be there. It's their choice, not the fans, the press, or even the team's decision. That is exactly what a NTC is.... They signed one to eliminate the uncertainty that you mentioned, I see no reason why they would give that up.

Does TJ want a bigger role on a team? I dunno. Some players do, some players don't. Eller is content with being a 3C on a Cup contender, Backstrom is 2C whereas he'd be 1C on half the teams in the league. Pretty much any Cup contender has guys that could slot a line above on a dumpster fire team.

If Chris wanted to spend money, there are tons of UFAs still available. Roster space could be made by waiving Erne or Biega, ain't a big deal at all. The team is projected to lose money this year, so I don't see it.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

TJ?

Ugh, do not want

 

[Killerjas]

TJ + TB 2021 1st round pick + a 2nd round

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Do not want unless a Cirelli or a 1st plus a top prospect comes back our way

No reason to help Tampa out as TJ really wont make the DRW any better

 

[ridilon]

Do not want unless a Cirelli or a 1st plus a top prospect comes back our way

No reason to help Tampa out as TJ really wont make the DRW any better

Agree with this. TJ+1st+Volkov or Alnefelt or good luck TBL. I'd almost want Cal Foote just because I know his dad HATES the DRW.

 

[GreatGordie9]

Agree with this. TJ+1st+Volkov or Alnefelt or good luck TBL. I'd almost want Cal Foote just because I know his dad HATES the DRW.

Cirelli or Killorn and a Tampa 1st in 2021 and a 2nd for 2022

 

[Stony Curtis]

If it happens, it might be something a little outside the box. Both of these GMs are pretty sharp guys, and they know each other pretty well. I really have no concrete idea of what might happen, and I'm not really a hawt take guy, but all the factors are there for something a bit...unexpected maybe?

 

[SirloinUB]

I’d be over the moon if we somehow landed cerelli in this

 

[SimonEdvinssonAtSix]

Agree with this. TJ+1st+Volkov or Alnefelt or good luck TBL. I'd almost want Cal Foote just because I know his dad HATES the DRW.

No Foote, No Roy, No lemieux spawned from claude in the Winged Wheel... I will not capitalize his name, my hatred runs deep.

 

[FabricDetails]

Gone quiet on this front, eh?

 

[Henkka]

Gone quiet on this front, eh?

Started from one rumor... I don't know how long can you beat the dead horse.

And still 4 weeks to puck drop.

 

[SirloinUB]

Tampa probably doesn’t like to cost but their under the gun here

 

[ridilon]

Tampa probably doesn’t like to cost but their under the gun here

I think this hits the nail on the head. TB probably knows our asking price. Brisebois has to be talking to any and every other team with potential cap space to facilitate. And as mentioned ad nauseum both Killorn and Gourde have NTCs while TJ is a mod NTC. I think the closer to the start of camp and the season opener the better. Nothing like a desperate GM with zero options to get a great return. And no "poor you" feelings on Yzermans part. TB just won the cup and will be a cup favorite again whether they deal TJ & Gourde/Killorn or whether the are forced to give up Cirelli or Cernak.

 

[Henkka]

And as mentioned ad nauseum both Killorn and Gourde have NTCs while TJ is a mod NTC.

Nope.

Only Killorn in mod-NTC for this season. Can block 16 teams of 30.

Johnson is with full NTC (turns modified next summer), which I think has been negotiated that he is ready to go. That waivers was kind of a signal.

Gourde - full NTC (turns modified next summer)
Palat - full NTC (turns modified next summer)

But also, you can "threaten" these guys with waivers. Throw Palat on waivers, and Detroit will pick him. If he likes to move to a real contender, there's always voiding the clause -option.

 

[Retire91]

I feel like its actually a good sign that this has not happened. To me that means Yzerman is asking for something they don't want to part with. I hope he stands his ground I don't think the trade is worth it for a second or something like that especially when they pick so late in the round. We might as well set a high market price with one of our only legitimate assets.

 

[SirloinUB]

I feel like its actually a good sign that this has not happened. To me that means Yzerman is asking for something they don't want to part with. I hope he stands his ground I don't think the trade is worth it for a second or something like that especially when they pick so late in the round. We might as well set a high market price with one of our only legitimate assets.

Absolutely. If Yzerman was willing to accept a low ball offer like a 2nd + Alnefelt/Raddysh tampa would have pulled the trigger already.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I feel like its actually a good sign that this has not happened. To me that means Yzerman is asking for something they don't want to part with. I hope he stands his ground I don't think the trade is worth it for a second or something like that especially when they pick so late in the round. We might as well set a high market price with one of our only legitimate assets.

Agreed, though I wouldn't necessarily call (1st + Hugo + Foote), "a high mkt. price"...if anything that's pretty fair all things considered. Not saying you said that, but there are some, especially on the trade board that did/would. Hugo has a 6.5 NHL certainty per EliteProspects, so he may not even be a NHL backup. Foote is a likely bottom 4 Def. Dman. ~30th OA is a magic bean.

 

[SirloinUB]

So I haven’t done a deep dive on this but what’s the Financial value of a draft pick?

Staal at 3ish million got us a second. Marleau buyout at 6 million got Carolina a 1st.

I know it’s a small sample size and thus an imperfect baseline but for the sake of discussion TJ is owed 17.75 million. Dumping that contract could arguably be worth as much as 3 first round picks. Obviously there are other factors: is TJ a “true dump”? Do other teams place a lesser or greater value on draft picks? Do we have other data points?

truly I don’t know enough about this topic and more examples could help us build a better picture. Does anyone have more insight into this concept? I know it’s a common principle in baseball.