Rumor: Zetterberg’s contract to Tampa
- Thread starter Ricelund
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By trading Johnson + for Z and placing him on LTIR they remove 5 million from their daily active cap which puts them under the cap ceiling. With Zetterberg’s contact paying only 1 million they actually clear a few million in actual salary expenditures at the same time. Two birds with one stone for a cap strapped team
The Zetterberg Era
Ball Hockey Sucks
Killorn sounds more of a waiving problem. They can probably find someone for a giveaway type deal, he is coming off a career year. They won't need to attach big assets I think to him, but I guess we will see.
I am not going to pretend I understand it down to the level as people that have spent a lot of time studying this. But it would appear that each team's cap guy disagrees with you as this happens every off-season. There is value to the movement of contracts in the NHL, this is proved every off-season by the people in charge of these decisions.
Gniwder
Registered User
They don't need Z's contract, they're going to put Stamkos' $8.5M on LTIR at the start of the season. They do need to clear some space to get Stamkos off LTIR during the season, and next season is still a problem.
Chris won;t be spending any money until the arena opens up anyways.
Chris won;t be spending any money until the arena opens up anyways.
Stamkos is projected to be healthy to begin the season.
If he isn't have fun clearing $8.5 million in a pinch a few weeks later.
jaster
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- Jun 8, 2007
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Simply put.... it gets them compliant with the cap while minimizing their losses on the active roster.
There seems to be a lot of confusion about this rumored deal, but it's quite simple. TBL wants to get the likes of Cernak and Cirelli signed while shedding enough cap hit to get under the cap ceiling. By sending them Zetterberg's contract, TBL can use the benefit of LTIR to exceed the cap. And while I haven't calculated every dollar of this proposed deal, and have no idea what Cernak and Cirelli will ultimately sign for, the idea is that in combination with sending us Johnson and his cap hit, TBL will then become cap compliant without losing any good, young players.
Now, in helping them out by sending them Hank's contract, and in helping them out by taking on Johnson's contract, Detroit would have to be getting something pretty dang good in return. This is an absolute ideal scenario for the Bolts, but it's going to cost them. What, I have no idea, but I'd suspect it would involve at least one of their 2021 1st and their goalie prospect, Alnefelt.
Ghost of Ethan Hunt
The Official Ghost of Space Ghosts Monkey
I could see a late 1st+ Hugo + Foote/Raddysh being the price for TJ + Z LTIR space.
And that is probably the minimum I'd be ok with. Though I don't know how highly rated those 3 propsects are...I don't think any of them are blue-chip, or A/A- grade either.
And that is probably the minimum I'd be ok with. Though I don't know how highly rated those 3 propsects are...I don't think any of them are blue-chip, or A/A- grade either.
jaster
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Like Hakan Andersson (this is the only way I've found to compare myself to Hakan lol), I won't pretend to evaluate goalies nearly as well as I do skaters. So I'm not making any definitive statements on Alnefelt's exact standing in the prospect world. But here's what I know: he's a goalie prospect who has trended upward more than most, he's considered somewhere in the top 6-15 of goalie prospects in the NHL depending on who's list you look at (that is high variance, but again, we're talking goalies, and at a weird time with not much hockey played this past year), he's more highly-regarded than any goalie prospect currently in Detroit's system, and he's widely considered to have #1 goalie upside (though the likelihood of reaching that upside is anyone's guess).
All told, Alnefelt seems like a good-not-great goalie prospect, but one with the upside of becoming great. He's probably going to be Sweden's starter in the WJC again this year, so we should learn more about him and see which direction his stock goes.
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jaster
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They need to re-sign Cernak and Cirelli. From what I've read, that can be expected to cost about $7M, maybe a tad more. And even then, they'd only have 18 skaters on the roster, so they likely need to add 1 or 2 cheapies for another ~$1.8M (assuming 2 guys). That leaves them somewhere in the ballpark of $5.5-6M over the cap. If they take on Zetterberg's contract, the LTIR benefit will cover that amount. It's damn near perfect math for TBL.
Henkka
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jkutswings
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https://thehockeywriters.com/lightning-should-consider-salary-dump-trade/
Lots of ideas being discussed by talking heads...
Lots of ideas being discussed by talking heads...
r0bert8841
Registered User
I guess I am not up to date on the cap relief benefit of Tampa. If Z ends up in Tampa, they will be given ~6m space in cap relief? Would that mean Tampa wouldn’t need to trade Killorn and we would be solving all of there problems?
jaster
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That's basically correct, yes.
They would be allowed to spend up to $6.083M over the cap, depending how close to the cap ceiling they are when the season is about to start.
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r0bert8841
Registered User
Oh dang alright. That ups the price quite a bit then. That’s a ton of leverage. I don’t think any other team could offer up that sort of relief. We could ask for the whole kitchen sink
Ghost of Ethan Hunt
The Official Ghost of Space Ghosts Monkey
I think the writer is very close to what it will actually look like.
Similar to my guess of: 1st, Hugo, Foote/Raddysh for Z
Henkka
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Gniwder
Registered User
They'll delay his recovery... that part is easy. There's no set timetable for torn abdominal muscles, heck, Brooks Laich never fully recovered from a torn groin muscle.
The question is what do they do when he's ready to come back? The overage will depend on Cirelli and Cernak's combined contracts. so it won't be $8.5M.
Stamkos would have to stay injured for at least 2/3 of the season for the math to work out. The question is if he's willing to sit out that long for a chance at a repeat. If the season is 52 games, it would only give him 17 or so games for him to get ready for the playoffs, but it also means he misses 35 games which isn't huge.
It just kicks the can to next season, but it's doable.
Edit: I totally forgot about the expansion draft, if there's a deal to be made, it's with Seattle after the season. Pay them to take a player with a NTC and trade TJ. He's more likely to waive his NTC to go home than to play for a dumpster fire team like Detroit.
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Ricelund
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Ghost of Ethan Hunt
The Official Ghost of Space Ghosts Monkey
Is that based on the delay of an actual deal that could've been done by now? (for example: TJ+1st+Foote for Z)
newfy
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Cernak would fit in with a lot of what Detroit is doing. Perfect age for where the team is at, big, mean and strong defensively. Going Seider, Hronek and Cernak as 3 of the top 6 D would have a lot of stars pissed off in playoff series.
BStinson
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I think some posters believe LTIR works a strange way and that they get 6M extra. It’s really a net effect since you’re just subtracting out Hank’s 6M cap hit and doesn’t let you accrue cap space for the TDL since you exceeded the maximum cap ceiling.
Here’s a visual without Cernak & Cirelli signed.
LTIR - Visual Aid - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
Note - that’s 3.1M in cap space to sign Cernak & Cirelli if no other moves are made plus an extra bodies unless they run with a 20 man squad.
Hank’s contract I believe is insured so it’s 1M cash but usually they’re insured @80% so we’re talking 200k cash and I’m not sure how payroll is handled with escrow so it maybe less.
Here’s a visual without Cernak & Cirelli signed.
LTIR - Visual Aid - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
Note - that’s 3.1M in cap space to sign Cernak & Cirelli if no other moves are made plus an extra bodies unless they run with a 20 man squad.
Hank’s contract I believe is insured so it’s 1M cash but usually they’re insured @80% so we’re talking 200k cash and I’m not sure how payroll is handled with escrow so it maybe less.
Lil Sebastian Cossa
Opinions are share are my own personal opinions.
- Jul 6, 2012
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In the main board topic about this, I did some rough calcs.
81.5 cap limit + 8.15 (10% offseason buffer) = 89.65 offseason cap.
Tampa's current Cap hit: 83.404
Tampa does the following
Sign Cirelli and Cernak to matching 1 or 2x2.5 deals to bridge out of this. (+5.0 cap)
Trade Johnson + non-cap assets for Zetterberg's LTIR contract and non-cap assets (-5.0 cap, +6.1 cap/LTIR)
Tampa Current cap usage before any additional moves: 89.504m
Tampa uses Zetterberg's LTIR as SOIR (season opening IR) and so have a "new cap" of 81.5 + 6.1 = 87.6m. They're still over the cap by 1.904m. So, in a couple paper transactions before opening night, they send down two roster guys that let them get the 1.05m in cap relief each. On opening night, they can get under the cap. Then, I think the rigors of an NHL season might actually take care of any other cap machinations. Like you'll get guys hurt or have the sniffles or what not. And at that point, they're not under the gun NEEDING to make a move. Making a move would let them breathe more easily, but they would not be under the sheer weight of it.
Also, maybe Cirelli and Cernak sign for less on a one year deal. Maybe you sell them on the fact that "we're nuts to butts against the cap this year, so we will talk long term for 21-22."
E: They'd send down guys to try to get the cap relief exactly as close to their new limit as possible.
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The actual cash figure means basically nothing to us as fans or to the cap. Basically it just means, in terms of only next season, they save 3.55 million in actual paychecks as well as the LTIR relief as explained by tsweeny who did an excellent job of explaining it the way I understand it to be true.
