Rumor: Zetterberg’s contract to Tampa

[jaster]

In the main board topic about this, I did some rough calcs.

81.5 cap limit + 8.15 (10% offseason buffer) = 89.65 offseason cap.
Tampa's current Cap hit: 83.404

Tampa does the following
Sign Cirelli and Cernak to matching 1 or 2x2.5 deals to bridge out of this. (+5.0 cap)
Trade Johnson + non-cap assets for Zetterberg's LTIR contract and non-cap assets (-5.0 cap, +6.1 cap/LTIR)

Tampa new cap before any moves: 89.504m

Tampa uses Zetterberg's LTIR as SOIR (season opening IR) and so have a "new cap" of 81.5 + 6.1 = 87.6m. They're still over the cap by 1.904m. So, in a couple paper transactions before opening night, they send down two roster guys that let them get the 1.05m in cap relief. On opening night, they can get under the cap. Then, I think the rigors of an NHL season might actually take care of any other cap machinations. Like you'll get guys hurt or have the sniffles or what not. And at that point, they're not under the gun NEEDING to make a move. Making a move would let them breathe more easily, but they would not be under the sheer weight of it.

Also, maybe Cirelli and Cernak sign for less on a one year deal. Maybe you sell them on the fact that "we're nuts to butts against the cap this year, so we will talk long term for 21-22."

Nice, thank you. That is more fleshed out than I had done. That makes sense. Overall, it's clear the Zetterberg contract can work in TBL's favor, which gives Yzerman even more leverage in a return.

Get 'em fleeced, Stevie.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

The actual cash figure means basically nothing to us as fans or to the cap. Basically it just means, in terms of only next season, they save 3.55 million in actual paychecks as well as the LTIR relief as explained by tsweeny who did an excellent job of explaining it the way I understand it to be true.

Yeah, I could be wrong... but anything I've read, that's my understanding of it. It's very clearly going to be a huge job of contracts management for Briesbois and the boys, but frankly, this is just about as best case as they could hope for.

 

[BStinson]

The actual cash figure means basically nothing to us as fans or to the cap. Basically it just means, in terms of only next season, they save 3.55 million in actual paychecks as well as the LTIR relief as explained by tsweeny who did an excellent job of explaining it the way I understand it to be true.

The actual cash was just for individuals that commented “maybe it’s to save Illitch money”. I tried not to single anyone out based on my post. Maybe I should’ve elaborated on the actual cash of the insured contract as team’s over the cap ceiling don’t accrue cap space and keeping Hank costs very little in actual dollars so it would make sense to keep him and maximize the returns.

The ACGM URL is merely to show the cap/AAV figures of what is merely available with Cernak + Cirelli to sign, creating the 20 man roster. You can’t do paper transactions that puts your team below the 20 man required roster per the CBA.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

The actual cash was just for individuals that commented “maybe it’s to save Illitch money”. I tried not to single anyone out based on my post. Maybe I should’ve elaborated on the actual cash of the insured contract as team’s over the cap ceiling don’t accrue cap space and keeping Hank costs very little in actual dollars so it would make sense to keep him and maximize the returns.

The ACGM URL is merely to show the cap/AAV figures of what is merely available with Cernak + Cirelli to sign, creating the 20 man roster. You can’t do paper transactions that puts your team below the 20 man required roster per the CBA.

Moreso, it just gives them certainty and leverage in speaking to their young players. They'll want more than 20 players on their roster during the year. Also, it will let them if they want to make a Killorn or Gourde or Palat move that it could be a straight hockey move that nets them a little bit of cap room as opposed to having to dump someone else too. It's more about maneuvering to where you're not bent over a barrel in trade offers. Picking up Zetterberg doesn't materially change their issue this year but it lets them talk to Cirelli and Cernak's agents to show "hey, we will have more money for you in 21-22 than we can possibly have now.. so please work with us. We want to keep you and pay you what you are worth".

 

[BStinson]

Moreso, it just gives them certainty and leverage in speaking to their young players. They'll want more than 20 players on their roster during the year. Also, it will let them if they want to make a Killorn or Gourde or Palat move that it could be a straight hockey move that nets them a little bit of cap room as opposed to having to dump someone else too. It's more about maneuvering to where you're not bent over a barrel in trade offers. Picking up Zetterberg doesn't materially change their issue this year but it lets them talk to Cirelli and Cernak's agents to show "hey, we will have more money for you in 21-22 than we can possibly have now.. so please work with us. We want to keep you and pay you what you are worth".

Yeah, it gets interesting because the next big contract that is up is Palat (2 years). So ideally they’d ship off TJ + Killorn/Gourde which frees up some cap for Cirelli and Cernak but it’s important to note that Point has 2 years left on his deal IIRC so if we do have a flat cap for 2-3 years like what’s reported you’d need to have some cushion for him or just know Palat is gone or taking a discount.

 

[Gniwder]

I know 2020 has been a strange year, but in what universe does a player waive a NTC to go from a Cup winner to the worst team in the league?

 

[Frk It]

Interesting development... I’m optimistic.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Yeah, it gets interesting because the next big contract that is up is Palat (2 years). So ideally they’d ship off TJ + Killorn/Gourde which frees up some cap for Cirelli and Cernak but it’s important to note that Point has 2 years left on his deal IIRC so if we do have a flat cap for 2-3 years like what’s reported you’d need to have some cushion for him or just know Palat is gone or taking a discount.

Shooting from the hip without taking into account anything about chemistry of their team, this is what I do and the sequence.

1. Johnson to Detroit for Zetterberg's LTIR deal. Negotiate whatever is fair. Yzerman will run a hard bargain but will offer a fair deal to JBB.

So let's say 2021 1st + that goalie kid (Atflelt?) to take the deal.

2. Sign Cernak and Cirelli. Push for "COVID has absolutely buttf***ed us with this locked cap, but we will free up some money to give you a better deal in 21-22 and have a clearer picture of everything. This will also let us keep more of a team around you". Hope to get them at somewhere between 1.5-2.5 each on a one year deal. If you can have them play ball with you, maybe even go two years to let them get closer to UFA. To make it enticing for them to give you a break.

3. Trade Yanni Gourde or Alex Killorn. It will hurt, but both of these guys at this point could be moved in more of a hockey deal than a cap dump and still get you a bit of cap relief. Like Killorn for a guy like Calle Jarnkrok. Or just someone in that realm. You could even recoup a pick too in this deal. *OPTIONAL STEP. This would be to provide me with flexibility now. Without this move, I'm penny-pinching and it's gonna be a nightmare, but I can do it. This frees up some breathing room.

4. Look to see about a trade for Palat. Get a jump on it. Do so mid season (so after all of this is handled). Like you said, Point is coming up quickly. So look for a hockey deal for Palat right now before he's at the end of his deal. See if you can try to peel away a Jakub Vrana from Washington or some other similar young player with a lot of promise. Make the call in your mind right now... Palat or Point. At some point, Tampa is gonna have to make those tough choices. Or they'll have to do the real hard sell on guys like Palat and get them to keep salaries in line to keep chasing Cups.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I know 2020 has been a strange year, but in what universe does a player waive a NTC to go from a Cup winner to the worst team in the league?

A world in which he's a third C and at risk of continually being pushed down the roster in Tampa and the neverending source of trade rumors and whatnot and he'd easily be the 2C and play a f***ton in Detroit. Play on a team managed by the GM that drafted him that he seems to have a good relationship with who, although they're the worst in the league now... at the top of the roster where Johnson would be playing in Detroit, he's going to be skating with Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi, Filip Zadina, Lucas Raymond, and Robby Fabbri at a minimum. He'll have Hronek and Seider coming up on the back end.

No, Detroit isn't suddenly going to become world beaters... but the area on the roster and the players Johnson would likely be skating with in Detroit are actually pretty damn good at hockey. They were the worst team in hockey because the goalies couldn't save a puck to save their lives last year and the bottom half of the lineup was worse than an AHL roster.

 

[Retire91]

be nice to land a really nice pick out of this.

 

[Shaman464]

There's no reason to add Z to this. Detroit taking Johnson+++ is more valuable to all involved than adding Z to it.

 

[ricky0034]

I kinda feel like I must be missing something or something because the whole Zetterberg aspect of this feels a bit....pointless for both sides

on the Wings end of things I guess it would save some dead cap space but even if you ignore any insurance factor it's only 1 million in actual money max

on the Lightning end people in this thread keep talking about going over the cap with LTIR....but isn't adding a contract and putting it on LTIR to use that cap space to go over the cap a literal zero sum game?

 

[Nut Upstrom]

Cernak would fit in with a lot of what Detroit is doing. Perfect age for where the team is at, big, mean and strong defensively. Going Seider, Hronek and Cernak as 3 of the top 6 D would have a lot of stars pissed off in playoff series.

I am sure they will try to avoid trading Cernak if at all possible. If they do have to deal him I am very doubtful that it will be to a team in their division.

 

[ridilon]

I know 2020 has been a strange year, but in what universe does a player waive a NTC to go from a Cup winner to the worst team in the league?

Last July Killorn had to submit a 16 team no trade list. For all we know the DRW are not on that list. There are only so many contenders and obviously TBL isn't one of them to choose.

Of course Johnson is a different story.

 

[jaster]

There was an article a while back, can’t remember where (maybe The Athletic?), where it was reported Johnson had been pretty understanding and accommodating in discussing with Brisebois options for being traded. He was not going to stick to his full NTC. No details in terms of how many teams he was willing to go to, but I remember it being pretty clear Detroit is one of them, largely due to the Yzerman factor, and I have to believe former teammates like Namestnikov and Filppula make it easier too.

 

[Leadzedder]

There's no reason to add Z to this. Detroit taking Johnson+++ is more valuable to all involved than adding Z to it.

I think you’re totally missing the point of Zetterbergs contract being added to the deal. We would be helping out TB twice.

1. Johnson’s contract. Saves them 5 million in cap space for the next 4 years.

2. Zetterbergs contract. This allows them to manage the cap, to allow them to ice a roster that can be 6 million over the cap. We should all be half aware on how this works. We did it for a few years.

This is very rough numbers but we are supplying them with up to 11 million in cap space with this move. This is a home run for TB. And they’ll pay as such.

Its 1 stop shopping for all of TBs cap issues.

 

[waltdetroit]

IMO, TBL's 1st may be the 31st pick. In there new division, they should win a ton of games so I doubt the pick is any higher than 25th. I don't want to sound greedy but I'd like better than that for our cost. We are giving TBL over $25 million in cap space(over 4 years), while picking up $19 mil in cash expense. Even if we get a great prospect, I'd like more than a very low 1st or a 1st and a 2nd.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

IMO, TBL's 1st may be the 31st pick. In there new division, they should win a ton of games so I doubt the pick is any higher than 25th. I don't want to sound greedy but I'd like better than that for our cost. We are giving TBL over $25 million in cap space(over 4 years), while picking up $19 mil in cash expense. Even if we get a great prospect, I'd like more than a very low 1st or a 1st and a 2nd.

You're not being greedy asking for more. Tampa NEEDS Johnson gone. Even if the pick ended up at 25... 17M is a f*** ton of money to pay for pick 25. Carolina took on Marleau's 6.25M for a year and got pick 13 (Toronto's likely pick was going to be early 20s (as they weren't a Cup favorite but would be high up in the regular season).

Seriously, why on Earth are people willing to take one end of the first round pick or feel guilty about asking for more than one when Tampa is asking Detroit to take on a 4x5 contract at 17.75M in a locked cap world?

We need to get a 1st plus something significant. Tampa must get rid of Johnson or someone else making that much money... and potentially another asset too, without taking on money themselves. You have leverage. Use it.

 

[Leadzedder]

IMO, TBL's 1st may be the 31st pick. In there new division, they should win a ton of games so I doubt the pick is any higher than 25th. I don't want to sound greedy but I'd like better than that for our cost. We are giving TBL over $25 million in cap space(over 4 years), while picking up $19 mil in cash expense. Even if we get a great prospect, I'd like more than a very low 1st or a 1st and a 2nd.

agree.

 

[Leadzedder]

Unless I’m wrong how this all works, if the deal is made. TJ + boatload for Z ltir then TB can sign all of their RFAS. Go with a full 23 man roster and not trade another player.

If so, that’s huge.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I think you’re totally missing the point of Zetterbergs contract being added to the deal. We would be helping out TB twice.

1. Johnson’s contract. Saves them 5 million in cap space for the next 4 years.

2. Zetterbergs contract. This allows them to manage the cap, to allow them to ice a roster that can be 6 million over the cap. We should all be half aware on how this works. We did it for a few years.

This is very rough numbers but we are supplying them with up to 11 million in cap space with this move. This is a home run for TB. And they’ll pay as such.

Its 1 stop shopping for all of TBs cap issues.

Not exactly. It doesn't give them 11M in cap space. What it does do is remove the Damocles sword from their head in terms of the negotiations with Cernak and Cirelli, as well as make it so if they're trying to deal Killorn or Palat or Gourde for breathing room, it can be a pure hockey move and not a "we need to save a ton of money" move. Even with Zetterberg on LTIR, they'd still be over the "new cap". It makes it so the Johnson move is the only one that really NEEDS to get done to field a legit roster.

 

[FabricDetails]

What are some of the speculated competing option offers from other teams?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Unless I’m wrong how this all works, if the deal is made. TJ + boatload for Z ltir then TB can sign all of their RFAS. Go with a full 23 man roster and not trade another player.

If so, that’s huge.

Hmmm.. They'd need another move to get a 23 man roster. Making this deal allows them to comfortably negotiate with Cirelli and Cernak to have a 20 man roster. They'll still have to do some wrangling to get up to a 23 man roster.

Basically making this move and getting Cirelli and Cernak on 1.5m one year bridges (with the idea that some more money will be available next year) gives you some latitude to add some callups to get to that and then just rigors of NHL season will take care of salary concerns mid-year. Like you're going to have some players sit out for stretches of time with injury. I really do think that Stamkos will end up being out for an extended period of time during this year. Not nefarious, not avoiding cap trouble, just that core muscle injuries are a pitch... particularly in hockey. I think that Briesbois has that in his head too, which is why he'll play chicken as long as he can to avoid having to pay the piper on Johnson and/or other pieces. Because if Stamkos can be on LTIR legitimately to start the year, you're not under the gun. Clearly, they'll want Stamkos back and at 100% because he's at worst the third best player they have (Kucherov and Hedman, maybe better?), but if they have any kind of concern about that, it would behoove them to keep as much depth and backup as possible.

 

[Leadzedder]

Not exactly. It doesn't give them 11M in cap space. What it does do is remove the Damocles sword from their head in terms of the negotiations with Cernak and Cirelli, as well as make it so if they're trying to deal Killorn or Palat or Gourde for breathing room, it can be a pure hockey move and not a "we need to save a ton of money" move. Even with Zetterberg on LTIR, they'd still be over the "new cap". It makes it so the Johnson move is the only one that really NEEDS to get done to field a legit roster.

What?

It’s a math equation. Respond more math’y please.

 

[Leadzedder]

Come on Sweeney. Do you not understand what we did for a couple of years with LTIR contracts? If you don’t... then sit this out.

Your response is just fluff that means nothing.

Show your math.