Zegras/Drysdale vs Raymond/Seider vs Stützle/Sanderson

[Korpse]

If Sanderson played these minutes do you think his numbers would look as good?

When you say numbers looked good what are you referencing? Is it the 43 CF% against elite competition, maybe it’s the 72.0 CA/60?

It’s not like Seider is thriving in that situation. Also not like Sanderson isn’t playing big minutes against elite competition either, 40% of his TOI is against what that side defines as elite competition.

 

[Sting]

Pretty easily. One actually plays the most minutes on his team, starts in the offensive zone 33% of the time compared to 47% of the time and plays by far the hardest minutes in the league. One is the number one D for a team on pace for 22 more points in the standings.

If Sanderson played these minutes do you think his numbers would look as good?

Sanderson is an all-situations d-man. He's the best shutdown player on the team but has been developing his offense. As mentioned many times, just because you play hard minutes doesn't mean you're doing well with them. Jake actually plays more minutes than Seider and is anything but sheltered; he is the most trusted defensive player on the team.

Consider this stat as well for context:
Detroit is a +10 team. Seider is even.
Ottawa is a -8 team. Sanderson is +6.

No, plus minus isn't the be-all, end-all stat and it has its limitations, but that is a glaring stat that the elite defender may not be as elite as you think.

 

[biturbo19]

I would rather take the 6'4, mean, #1 dman that plays by far the hardest minutes in the league over Stutzle and the season he is having right now. I think Stutzle is number 2 for sure, but acting like Raymond isnt comparable with the other forwards is ridiculous at this point in the season. Even if you can find Sanderson in this tweet, he wont be close to Seiders usage.




At even strength Stutzle is starting 55% of the time, Zegras 57% of the time, and Raymond 43% of the time in the offensive zone. Zegras is on pace for 29 points with 16 goals, Stutzle for 83 points with 19 goals, and Raymond 65 points with 23 goals. Stutzle playing close to a minute more on the PP per game. If you give Raymond Stutzles easier minutes, he definitely closes the gap offensively while not having embarrassing moments defensively like this. Saying theyre not comparable is pretty ridiculous, even if Stutzle is better.

I agree overall, but to be fair...that's a pretty weak example of the Sens guys being "bad".

Stutzle has a minor stick/lane mistake on a kind of wonky tipped puck play but he positions himself well to angle the attacker off into the defenceman. Gets caught puck watching when the system entirely breaks down. But...


It's that useless lump Brannstrom who just completely panics, concedes the line without contest, then kinda vaguely waves his stick at the opposing player outmanned 3-to-1 and cordoned off toward the perimeter. I don't know what you're supposed to do in that scenario. That's not really about back pressure. The LD has to step the f*** up and actually challenge the player to make anything happen there. Take stick, take puck, take the body, do something. If that's a competent defenceman in a functional system, that puck is turned around and headed the other way...which would completely vindicate the wingers' delayed arrival. That's the foundation of how a quick transition, counterattacking offense operates.

But if you've got guys like Brannstrom just sorta retreating, wasting space on the ice, challenging nobody and waving their stick around like it's Harry Potter's magic wand or something...it's gonna make other guys look stupid at times because hockey is a team game and when someone can't hold up their corner of the unit, bad stuff is gonna happen. A lot.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Let this sink in.

47GP: 5G, 18A, 23P, 0+/-, 22:24 ATOI
vs
43GP: 7G, 17A, 24P, +6, 23:09 ATOI

One is an elite-all around defenseman significantly better than any of the other players on this list. The other is Jake Sanderson.

Interestingly, the inferior Sanderson has a better stat-line while playing on a worse team, while having the role of #1D.

How do we make sense of this.

One plays the hardest minutes in the league, the other doesn’t play anywhere close.

 

[Sens9292]

One plays the hardest minutes in the league, the other doesn’t play anywhere close.

They’re close to being even. The way Wings fan talk about how elite Seider is, a bit ridiculous

 

[swiftwin]

Welp, looks like the answer was the Ottawa duo after all....

 

[newfy]

They’re close to being even. The way Wings fan talk about how elite Seider is, a bit ridiculous

... I mean Sanderson is as close to Seider as Ottawas 5th D is to Sanderson in playing elite competition. The zone starts arent remotely close either.

Their deployment is far from being even at all

 

[nbwingsfan]

They’re close to being even. The way Wings fan talk about how elite Seider is, a bit ridiculous

Have you seen the charts of their usage? Yeah, their overall stats are close (even though Seider has been ahead), but then when you view their usages? Not nearly as close as it looks

 

[Korpse]

Have you seen the charts of their usage? Yeah, their overall stats are close (even though Seider has been ahead), but then when you view their usages? Not nearly as close as it looks

Seider does have an extreme usage but it's not like you are comparing him to a player who doesn't have difficult deployment. Sanderson's 40.1% TOI vs "elite" competition ranks very high and his 20.3% TOI vs "gritsensity" ranks very low also. Seider's break down is 49.4%/12.8% which is the highest and the lowest. I think you are overstating the difference here, especially when you factor in the underlying numbers are ugly for Seider.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Have you seen the charts of their usage? Yeah, their overall stats are close (even though Seider has been ahead), but then when you view their usages? Not nearly as close as it looks

Looks close to me, Seider slightly ahead,

Moneypuck has killing penalties, starts in Defensive zone
Seider - 65.6%
Sanderson - 64%

All situations, starts in defensive zone
Seider - 20.8%
Sanderson - 17.3%

It’s already been shown in here Sanderson is ahead xGA/60 and xGF/60 and HDCA/60 and HDCA/60, and on a worse team.

It’s much closer than your saying, Sanderson is the first player over the boards, when the best lines of the opponent come out, and coach gets last change.

 

[norrisnick]

How is Sanderson, or Stutzle for that matter, on a worse team if from top to bottom all the Sens players are better and/or performing better than the Wings counterparts?

 

[Golden_Jet]

How is Sanderson, or Stutzle for that matter, on a worse team if from top to bottom all the Sens players are better and/or performing better than the Wings counterparts?

Yep that’s definitely possible in a team game. Nothing new about that.

 

[newfy]

Looks close to me, Seider slightly ahead,

Moneypuck has killing penalties, starts in Defensive zone
Seider - 65.6%
Sanderson - 64%

All situations, starts in defensive zone
Seider - 20.8%
Sanderson - 17.3%

It’s already been shown in here Sanderson is ahead xGA/60 and xGF/60 and HDCA/60 and HDCA/60, and on a worse team.

It’s much closer than your saying, Sanderson is the first player over the boards, when the best lines of the opponent come out, and coach gets last change.

I said this before but you must have glossed over it... against elite competition, Seider is as far ahead of Sanderson as Sanderson is from the 5th D on Ottawa. Not sure why you would use all situations either. If one guy happens to start more powerplays or penalty kills its just going to skew the numbers due to where the faceoffs move to.

At even strength where coaches focus more on line matching, the zone starts and time spent against better competition arent all that close between the 2 of them. In offensivezone start %, Sanderson is ranked 114th in the entire league for guys who have played 100 mins. Seider is 26th.

Keep in mind that Sanderson is playing against not only elite players significantly less, but the difference in ice time is made up completely in extra time against the lowest competition possible. It isnt made up by still playing some solid minutes against solid 2nd lines or something like that. Seider plays the least time against poor competition also by a decent amount in the league.

Couple all of that with their zone start percentages, and no, their deployment is not much closer than what is being said. Seider plays much tougher opponents starting in tougher areas of the ice

 

[norrisnick]

Yep that’s definitely possible in a team game. Nothing new about that.

So maybe... if the team isn't any good... the players aren't as good as you would think? The players do "play" a pretty big role in how a team performs...

 

[keglu]

Is there some data to show how well Seider perform , all i hear is what his is usage is.
He has 11 ES points which puts him in 5th place among D on his team. Even with 50% improvement he would still be behind Sanderson in ES production.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I said this before but you must have glossed over it... against elite competition, Seider is as far ahead of Sanderson as Sanderson is from the 5th D on Ottawa. Not sure why you would use all situations either. If one guy happens to start more powerplays or penalty kills its just going to skew the numbers due to where the faceoffs move to.

At even strength where coaches focus more on line matching, the zone starts and time spent against better competition arent all that close between the 2 of them. In offensivezone start %, Sanderson is ranked 114th in the entire league for guys who have played 100 mins. Seider is 26th.

Keep in mind that Sanderson is playing against not only elite players significantly less, but the difference in ice time is made up completely in extra time against the lowest competition possible. It isnt made up by still playing some solid minutes against solid 2nd lines or something like that. Seider plays the least time against poor competition also by a decent amount in the league.

Couple all of that with their zone start percentages, and no, their deployment is not much closer than what is being said. Seider plays much tougher opponents starting in tougher areas of the ice

Most of that Is your made up stuff lol. Here’s a perfect example.

but the difference in ice time is made up completely in extra time against the lowest competition possible

You’ve been shown several times it’s much closer. Even look at the part you quoted, where Sanderson is better at many things.

I’d use a threshold greater than a player averaging more than 2 1/2 minutes per game in all situations.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Looks close to me, Seider slightly ahead,

Moneypuck has killing penalties, starts in Defensive zone
Seider - 65.6%
Sanderson - 64%

All situations, starts in defensive zone
Seider - 20.8%
Sanderson - 17.3%

It’s already been shown in here Sanderson is ahead xGA/60 and xGF/60 and HDCA/60 and HDCA/60, and on a worse team.

It’s much closer than your saying, Sanderson is the first player over the boards, when the best lines of the opponent come out, and coach gets last change.

Now show their usage against elite competition

 

[Korpse]

Most of that Is your made up stuff lol. Here’s a perfect example.

but the difference in ice time is made up completely in extra time against the lowest competition possible

You’ve been shown several times it’s much closer. Even look at the part you quoted, where Sanderson is better at many things.

I’d use a threshold greater than a player averaging more than 2 1/2 minutes per game in all situations.

Their argument is so disingenuous and is a result of having a conclusion and finding data to support it and ignoring data that doesn't. Sanderson ranks 19th among D with 40.1% of TOI vs "elite" competition and has the 6th lowest vs "gritentisty" he also has the 2nd lowest OZ start% among Sens D. Seider having the tougher deployment doesn't automatically make him better, especially when you factor in the poor underlying numbers and the fact that Sanderson also faces some of the toughest deployment in the league and has better undelying numbers.

 

[Strangle]

Does Stutzle come with $5m in cap space?

Or is this thread too old for that moment in HFboards lore?

 

[Golden_Jet]

The charts in here for you to look at yourself big guy.

It’s a useless chart, as you can read about 6 names out of 300. The horizontal axis has no parameter attached to it.
Plenty of other proof on here as well. Copium seems like a fitting word, that was just used earlier.

 

[Korpse]

Now show their usage against elite competition

Seider 370.7 TOI vs elite, 49.4% TOI vs elite, 43.3 CF%, 43.2 DFF%, 47.1 GF%
Sanderson 272.9 TOI vs Elite, 40.1% TOI vs elite, 49.5 CF%, 48.4 DFF%, 53.8 GF%

 

[Korpse]

It’s a useless chart, as you can read about 6 names out of 300. The horizontal axis has no parameter attached to it.
Plenty of other proof on here as well. Copium seems like a fitting word, that was just used earlier.

Here is a better screenshot, with highlighted names. and another QOC usage chart, though the X-axis is incorrectly labelled and shows Off zone FO% rather than off zone start%. Sanderson also ranks very highly in terms of QOC by various sources. Just because Seider has the toughest deployment doesn't make him the best defensemen.

 

[JimmyApples]

Agree, Ottawa has too much talent on the roster to not have a few good streaks this year.

It's very likely a lost season though, so if I'm Ottawa I'm looking to maximize draft position this year. Then I really go for it next year, where I'll lose the draft pick anyway. Their current roster construction is so flawed that some roster reconstruction and magic dust might create a winning team given the talent on the roster.

Ottawa can choose the next four years of 1st round picks to give up. Unless they made the ECF, it's hard to believe they won't push the draft pick until 2027 and ask the league to lessen the penalty (same as Devils).

Anyways, the answer to the poll is Ottawa, pretty easily. Stutzle is significantly ahead of Zegras and Raymond, and Sanderson is better than Drysdale and Seider.

 

[nbwingsfan]

It’s a useless chart, as you can read about 6 names out of 300. The horizontal axis has no parameter attached to it.
Plenty of other proof on here as well. Copium seems like a fitting word, that was just used earlier.

That’s the point, the one you can clearly make out is Seider, who is playing by far the toughest minutes of anyone.

There’s a reason only Sens fans think Sanderson is on Seider level at this point. Although it’s probably the same fans who said Ottawa was a whole level above the Wings entirely coming into this year, so it’s not a surprise.

 

[Crunchy]

That’s the point, the one you can clearly make out is Seider, who is playing by far the toughest minutes of anyone.

There’s a reason only Sens fans think Sanderson is on Seider level at this point. Although it’s probably the same fans who said Ottawa was a whole level above the Wings entirely coming into this year, so it’s not a surprise.

OK, but Detroit has the 3rd worst CF% (45.3) while Ottawa is 17th (50.17), so Ottawa is the clearly better team.