Zegras/Drysdale vs Raymond/Seider vs Stützle/Sanderson

[TheDoldrums]

Playing the toughest minutes (and having poor results) does not mean he's great or will be great.

This poll is Ottawa and I don't really think it's close. Even with Stutzle bizarrely going from a 40 goal pace into Mat Barzal this season.

 

[Machinehead]

Zone starts and Quality of Competition are noise.

QoC isn't nothing but it doesn't have the statistical significance people think it does.

Zone starts are useless. 80% of shifts don't have a zone start. They do nothing over large samples.

 

[newfy]

Zone starts and Quality of Competition are noise.

QoC isn't nothing but it doesn't have the statistical significance people think it does.

Zone starts are useless. 80% of shifts don't have a zone start. They do nothing over large samples.

Woodmoneys quality of competition stat is by far the most comprehensive quality of competition stat available without using a private analytics company.

Its not the Qualcomp stat that got used a lot in ~2017

 

[Crunchy]

I didn't come in here with a strong opinion and still don't necessarily have one. Sanderson is an absolute stud on a great trajectory and is younger than Seider. That being said, I looked at the stats myself given what's been bandied about and am not quite sure I understand the ottawa narrative.

The Raw Stats from NaturalStatTrick:

Seider 5v5 TOI: 766:52 GF: 36 GA: 34
Sanderson 5v5 TOI: 703:58 GF: 37 GA: 33

Seider PP TOI: 126:31 GF: 19 GA: 3
Sanderson PP TOI: 139:22 GF: 11 GA: 3

Seider PK TOI: 130:07 GF: 3 GA: 17
Sanderson PK TOI: 139:16 GF: 2 GA: 25

So Seider's unit has allowed 1 more goal in 6 more games (63 more min) at 5 on 5. Against better competition. That seems fairly straightforward.

Seider's unit has also seen better PP and PK results.

We could look at shared TOI and SOS too if we wanted to qualify, but from my viewings Seider is consistently propping up the forwards lines lower in the lineup. Would be curious to hear what Sandersom's experience has been.

 

[Atoyot]

I chose Zegras/Drysdale. I chose poorly.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Playing the toughest minutes (and having poor results) does not mean he's great or will be great.

What poor results?

 

[jbeck5]

So maybe... if the team isn't any good... the players aren't as good as you would think? The players do "play" a pretty big role in how a team performs...

Go back a few pages. We already had this argument.

Plenty of teams have been listed with a bunch of big name players, even players have good seasons, and the team is still trash. Go have a read.

We don't need to hash this out all over again.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Don’t look now but Lucas Raymond has only 4 less points than the player he is incomparable to

 

[jbeck5]

Don’t look now but Lucas Raymond has only 4 less points than the player he is incomparable to

Or look now and take a glance at GP.

One is pacing in the 80s per 82 and the other is pacing in the 60s per 82.

 

[schuelma24]

Or look now and take a glance at GP.

One is pacing in the 80s per 82 and the other is pacing in the 60s per 82.

"60's and "80's doing a lot of really vague work in this sentence.

Stutzle is on pace for 82 points, Raymond 69.

But sure, make it seem like it's a 20+ point differential.

 

[geebster]

Defenseman I'd most want is Seider and forward I'd most want is Stutzle despite him not taking a step this year. Sandersons gap with Seider is smaller than the gap I see between Raymond and Stutzle so I go Ottawa here despite them being so damn unimpressive this year (Sanderson was supposed to be better than Hughes this year and Stutzle better than Pettersson....yeah that didn't happen).

 

[keglu]

Don’t look now but Lucas Raymond has only 4 less points than the player he is incomparable to

Almost like Sanderson and Seider situation then. Ignoring this insignificant GP detail.

 

[Bileur]

Almost like Sanderson and Seider situation then. Ignoring this insignificant GP detail.

I guess you could call the .01 P/GP difference between the D similar to the .18 P/GP difference between the forwards.

 

[jbeck5]

"60's and "80's doing a lot of really vague work in this sentence.

Stutzle is on pace for 82 points, Raymond 69.

But sure, make it seem like it's a 20+ point differential.

I was doing the same thing the poster I quoted was doing which was purposely being misleading while being technically factual.

"Woosh" to you and everyone who liked your post. Geeezus.

 

[RedHawkDown]

I was doing the same thing the poster I quoted was doing which was purposely being misleading while being technically factual.

"Woosh" to you and everyone who liked your post. Geeezus.

There's nothing misleading about it. A player that is at 0.8PPG and one that is at 1PPG are comparable players. Stutzle is obviously better than Raymond, but not by some ridiculous margin that they are incomparable players, especially given Raymond's superior defensive play.

 

[schuelma24]

I was doing the same thing the poster I quoted was doing which was purposely being misleading while being technically factual.

"Woosh" to you and everyone who liked your post. Geeezus.

I mean, yeah, I kind of figured that. Odd way to make a point. Seems like you would have just left it at your explanation instead of doing the exact same thing you were complaining about.

 

[jbeck5]

I mean, yeah, I kind of figured that. Odd way to make a point.

How was it odd?

Isn't that exactly how people do it?

Like when someone proposes a lopsided trade, the other makes a joke by showing a lopsided trade in the other direction?

I mean, you're not meant to take it seriously. It's meant to highlight the bias in the first post.

 

[schuelma24]

How was it odd?

Isn't that exactly how people do it?

Like when someone proposes a lopsided trade, the other makes a joke by showing a lopsided trade in the other direction?

I mean, you're not meant to take it seriously. It's meant to highlight the bias in the first post.l

I guess? Baiting people on purpose instead of just calling out the problem you see with a post is certainly a choice. It’s fine, I just don’t really get the choice if you were trying for actual discussion.

 

[jbeck5]

There's nothing misleading about it. A player that is at 0.8PPG and one that is at 1PPG are comparable players. Stutzle is obviously better than Raymond, but not by some ridiculous margin that they are incomparable players, especially given Raymond's superior defensive play.

Until you start to look at other 0.8 vs 1.00 ppg players and start to notice a sizeable gap in the value of those players.

Sure, you can point to a couple 0.8 players being close to 1.00 players, but the more you go over the list, the more you notice a difference.

This is also noticeably a down year for stutzle. He's been fighting through injury all year. So you can go ahead of ignore that and think I'm just being biased. I don't care. It's pretty obvious to people watching him game in and game out that he's fighting something.

So Raymond is closer this year than other years...cool. we know why.

But if you compare their careers, or year to year numbers, it's no doubt it my mind that stutzle will significantly outscore him most years.

 

[Romang67]

I chose Zegras/Drysdale. I chose poorly.

Easy out. The poll says the Anaheim duo. Not your fault they're not both on Anaheim anymore.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Until you start to look at other 0.8 vs 1.00 ppg players and start to notice a sizeable gap in the value of those players.

Sure, you can point to a couple 0.8 players being close to 1.00 players, but the more you go over the list, the more you notice a difference.

This is also noticeably a down year for stutzle. He's been fighting through injury all year. So you can go ahead of ignore that and think I'm just being biased. I don't care. It's pretty obvious to people watching him game in and game out that he's fighting something.

So Raymond is closer this year than other years...cool. we know why.

But if you compare their careers, or year to year numbers, it's no doubt it my mind that stutzle will significantly outscore him most years.

Both of these playres are 21 years old. To claim that there is "no doubt" in your mind about their future is frankly absurd.

For the record, I believe Stutzle will be the better offensive player throughout their careers.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Until you start to look at other 0.8 vs 1.00 ppg players and start to notice a sizeable gap in the value of those players.

Sure, you can point to a couple 0.8 players being close to 1.00 players, but the more you go over the list, the more you notice a difference.

This is also noticeably a down year for stutzle. He's been fighting through injury all year. So you can go ahead of ignore that and think I'm just being biased. I don't care. It's pretty obvious to people watching him game in and game out that he's fighting something.

So Raymond is closer this year than other years...cool. we know why.

But if you compare their careers, or year to year numbers, it's no doubt it my mind that stutzle will significantly outscore him most years.

Stützle also plays significantly more. There are some reasons he plays more, sure, but it’s still context to consider.

P/60 (all situations)

Stützle: 2.87
Raymond: 2.85

 

[Crunchy]

Stützle also plays significantly more. There are some reasons he plays more, sure, but it’s still context to consider.

P/60 (all situations)

Stützle: 2.87
Raymond: 2.85

I think it's clearly Stutzle/Seider as the top pair, with most leaning towards Stutzle (90 pts at 21 yrs is pretty hard to argue). Personally, I'd then go Sanderson over Raymond, as I'm just very high on Jake. Love Raymond too, he is very good and has a lot of potential, but he is a winger.

Ultimately, hard not to take the Ottawa pair. As a Detroit fan though, tough to swallow giving up Seider. He just has so much impact, control, and physical presence on the game, it's hard to communicate to fans who don't watch him. He's Detroit's chess piece.

 

[wintersej]

Feel good about taking Ottawa pair in retrospect. Stutzle is a bit too much of a flopper for my taste, though.

 

[newfy]

There's nothing misleading about it. A player that is at 0.8PPG and one that is at 1PPG are comparable players. Stutzle is obviously better than Raymond, but not by some ridiculous margin that they are incomparable players, especially given Raymond's superior defensive play.

Especially when this "big" points per game difference is made up of less goals per game and more secondary assists per game.

Primary points per game is actually in Raymonds favour 0.56 to 0.54 while Raymond plays about 4 mins less per game while we're at it. But ya these players arent close at all...