Zegras/Drysdale vs Raymond/Seider vs Stützle/Sanderson

Zegras/Drysdale vs Raymond/Seider vs Stützle/Sanderson


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CornerStone61

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Especially when this "big" points per game difference is made up of less goals per game and more secondary assists per game.

Primary points per game is actually in Raymonds favour 0.56 to 0.54 while Raymond plays about 4 mins less per game while we're at it. But ya these players arent close at all...
One player is shooting above his career shooting percentage and one player is shooting vastly below his career shooting percentage. Can you guess which one is which?

Despite that, Stutzle is still ahead in PPG. Why are you willing to die on this hill?
 
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RedHawkDown

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One player is shooting above his career shooting percentage and one player is shooting vastly below his career shooting percentage. Can you guess which one is which?

Despite that, Stutzle is still ahead in PPG. Why are you willing to die on this hill?
Yeah because Stutzle is better offensively. But Raymond is better defensively. Stutzle is still the better player. But not by a gigantic margin. There’s nobody dying on any hills, don’t fret.
 

newfy

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One player is shooting above his career shooting percentage and one player is shooting vastly below his career shooting percentage. Can you guess which one is which?

Despite that, Stutzle is still ahead in PPG. Why are you willing to die on this hill?
I'm not saying Raymond is better to be clear, but I find the people in here trying to say they arent even close are the ones dying on a stupid hill. Shooting percentage wise, Raymond is 1% above his career average basically right now. These guys have each played like 3 seasons, do you think counting Stutzles higher than 17% shooting percentage from last year is going to be indicative of whats likely going forward? If anything, his 17% shooting percentage inflated what everyone thinks about him, and seeing the more realistic side this year has people scrambling to make excuses for it in threads like this. This season, youre likely getting closer to what his career average shooting percentage will be than what he showed last year.

So I'll ask again, in 4 extra minutes per game including more PP time, Stutzle has managed more secondary assists and thats it production wise. Are you willing to die on the hill that they arent even close? Or can you admit that they are, even if you think Stutzle is better? I fall in the second camp.
 

CornerStone61

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I'm not saying Raymond is better to be clear, but I find the people in here trying to say they arent even close are the ones dying on a stupid hill. Shooting percentage wise, Raymond is 1% above his career average basically right now. These guys have each played like 3 seasons, do you think counting Stutzles higher than 17% shooting percentage from last year is going to be indicative of whats likely going forward? If anything, his 17% shooting percentage inflated what everyone thinks about him, and seeing the more realistic side this year has people scrambling to make excuses for it in threads like this. This season, youre likely getting closer to what his career average shooting percentage will be than what he showed last year.

So I'll ask again, in 4 extra minutes per game including more PP time, Stutzle has managed more secondary assists and thats it production wise. Are you willing to die on the hill that they arent even close? Or can you admit that they are, even if you think Stutzle is better? I fall in the second camp.
I agree that Stutzle is not likely to maintain a 17% shooting percentage, no one really can. If you really think that him shooting 8.6% in a down year is closer to what we'll see going forward, then I don't think there's any conversation to be had here. I view Raymond as a 60 point winger and Stutzle as a 90 point center, so personally no I don't think they're close at all.
 

Golden_Jet

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I'm not saying Raymond is better to be clear, but I find the people in here trying to say they arent even close are the ones dying on a stupid hill. Shooting percentage wise, Raymond is 1% above his career average basically right now. These guys have each played like 3 seasons, do you think counting Stutzles higher than 17% shooting percentage from last year is going to be indicative of whats likely going forward? If anything, his 17% shooting percentage inflated what everyone thinks about him, and seeing the more realistic side this year has people scrambling to make excuses for it in threads like this. This season, youre likely getting closer to what his career average shooting percentage will be than what he showed last year.

So I'll ask again, in 4 extra minutes per game including more PP time, Stutzle has managed more secondary assists and thats it production wise. Are you willing to die on the hill that they arent even close? Or can you admit that they are, even if you think Stutzle is better? I fall in the second camp.
There is a bigger gap between Stutzle and Raymond than Sanderson and Seider, it’s the Seider views people are dying on the hill.
 
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schuelma24

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I view Raymond as a 60 point winger and Stutzle as a 90 point center, so personally no I don't think they're close at all.
So basically, you think Stuzle's best year represents who he is, and for Raymond, he is who he was as a rookie?

Note- I'm not arguing Stutzle isn't better, but IMO there's some cherry picking going on to minimize Raymond's potential impact. Sure, the gap is very wide if you're just going to ignore the most recent data set, which is the first 50 or so games of this year.
 
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newfy

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I agree that Stutzle is not likely to maintain a 17% shooting percentage, no one really can. If you really think that him shooting 8.6% in a down year is closer to what we'll see going forward, then I don't think there's any conversation to be had here. I view Raymond as a 60 point winger and Stutzle as a 90 point center, so personally no I don't think they're close at all.
Youre right.. Raymond is only as good as his rookie season and Stutzle is as good as his best year with a 17 something percent shooting percentage. Easy to not think theyre not close when youre that clueless I guess, definitely no conversation to be had here

What do you think Stutzle will shoot for his career? More than 14%?
 

CornerStone61

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Youre right.. Raymond is only as good as his rookie season and Stutzle is as good as his best year with a 17 something percent shooting percentage. Easy to not think theyre not close when youre that clueless I guess, definitely no conversation to be had here

What do you think Stutzle will shoot for his career? More than 14%?
Did you even read my post? I literally said he's not likely to maintain 17%. I'd think 12-13% would be a reasonable guess. You suggested that him being closer to 8.6% shooting percentage would be closer to his average going forward which is just a bad viewpoint IMO. Despite a year where everything has gone wrong for the Sens and Stutzle clearly playing hurt for some of the year, he's still on PPG pace, so I don't think it's really that out there to suggest he could hit 90 again even without an unsustainable shooting percentage.

I never referenced Raymond's rookie season for what its worth (though he didn't score 60 points that season anyway). I just view him as a 60-70 point talent.

That said, if you're going to resort to insults then there really is no conversation to be had. You clearly like your guy and I like mine so let's leave it at that I guess.
 

CornerStone61

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So basically, you think Stuzle's best year represents who he is, and for Raymond, he is who he was as a rookie?

Note- I'm not arguing Stutzle isn't better, but IMO there's some cherry picking going on to minimize Raymond's potential impact. Sure, the gap is very wide if you're just going to ignore the most recent data set, which is the first 50 or so games of this year.
To be clear, I never referenced Raymond's rookie season. I just view him as a 60-70 point talent. I could certainly eat crow on that evaluation but that's just what I currently project him as. He's currently playing at a 67 point pace so we're supposed to use that as a barometer for what he is going forward yet we're not allowed to use Stutzle's last full season in this comparison why exactly? Obviously his shooting percentage was unsustainable but I don't think a career 12-13% is unreasonable, which would have him pacing around 90 again this year despite the Sens struggling and him clearly playing hurt for parts of the year.
 

The Red Line

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I never referenced Raymond's rookie season for what its worth (though he didn't score 60 points that season anyway). I just view him as a 60-70 point talent.

Sorry for chiming in late, but no one so far is actually saying Raymond is better than Stutzle, people are just calling you out for your incredibly biased logic. Raymond scored 57 points in his rookie season, and you see him peaking at 60 points (as you said in your previous post, I see you moved the needle to 60-70 after being called out). This is why everyone is calling you out for saying that one player's rookie numbers are the best he can do, while another player's clear outlier season is the norm.

Like everyone else, I also view Stutzle as the supior player, but the logic you are using to argue that point is absurd.
 

CornerStone61

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Sorry for chiming in late, but no one so far is actually saying Raymond is better than Stutzle, people are just calling you out for your incredibly biased logic. Raymond scored 57 points in his rookie season, and you see him peaking at 60 points (as you said in your previous post, I see you moved the needle to 60-70 after being called out). This is why everyone is calling you out for saying that one player's rookie numbers are the best he can do, while another player's clear outlier season is the norm.

Like everyone else, I also view Stutzle as the supior player, but the logic you are using to argue that point is absurd.
As I've said in my last two posts, I never referenced Raymond's rookie season, despite those words being repeatedly put in my mouth.

Also, just for reference I still consider 67 points to be a "60" point player, though I know everyone likes to round up.

Edit: You call me out for biased logic but then go on to say Stutzle's last season is an outlier without acknowledging this season is an outlier in the other direction, so pot meet kettle I guess.
 
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The Red Line

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As I've said in my last two posts, I never referenced Raymond's rookie season, despite those words being repeatedly put in my mouth.

Also, just for reference I still consider 67 points to be a "60" point player, though I know everyone likes to round up.

Edit: You call me out for biased logic but then go on to say Stutzle's last season is an outlier without acknowledging this season is an outlier in the other direction, so pot meet kettle I guess.
lmao you call people out for rounding up 67 points but don't realize the absurdity of rounding 67 down to 60??

People are saying you referenced his rookie season because that is the closest point total you've referenced, you don't have to use the words "rookie season" for people to infer context based on an extremely limited season sample size.

And to your last point... last season was the outlier, how would I or you or anyone know if this season is an outlier? He's played 4 seasons in the NHL, last year is the only one that is different from the other three, therefore this season is most definitely not an outlier, even if he does (he will) improve upon that going forward.

You're going through all of this effort just to agree with everyone else, but the logic you are using is asinine.
 
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CornerStone61

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lmao you call people out for rounding up 67 points but don't realize the absurdity of rounding 67 down to 60??

People are saying you referenced his rookie season because that is the closest point total you've referenced, you don't have to use the words "rookie season" for people to infer context based on an extremely limited season sample size.
67 is still in the 60s, is it not? Maybe I've been counting wrong. I've already mentioned that my point projections for him have nothing to do with his rookie season, even though yes that is the closest he's gotten to that number to date. People are inferring context regardless of how many times I say this though.

To be clear, I'm in no way inferring Raymond is a bad player, I just don't think it will be close going forward based on my viewings and due to player position.

As for your edit, Stutzle's last year is getting referenced as an outlier in this thread because of his unsustainably high shooting percentage, but then don't acknowledge that his shooting percentage this year is unsustainably low. If his shooting percentage regressed to the mean this year he would be closer to lasts years point pace.

The point I agree with everyone else on is that Stutzle's better. I'm arguing the size of the gap.
 
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Golden_Jet

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Youre right.. Raymond is only as good as his rookie season and Stutzle is as good as his best year with a 17 something percent shooting percentage. Easy to not think theyre not close when youre that clueless I guess, definitely no conversation to be had here

What do you think Stutzle will shoot for his career? More than 14%?
His career average is about 13 %
 

newfy

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Did you even read my post? I literally said he's not likely to maintain 17%. I'd think 12-13% would be a reasonable guess. You suggested that him being closer to 8.6% shooting percentage would be closer to his average going forward which is just a bad viewpoint IMO. Despite a year where everything has gone wrong for the Sens and Stutzle clearly playing hurt for some of the year, he's still on PPG pace, so I don't think it's really that out there to suggest he could hit 90 again even without an unsustainable shooting percentage.

Do you know how math works? 8.6% shooting is closer to 12-13% than 17.1% is. Its not a bad view point its extremely basic math. This season based on what you think he'll shoot is statistically closer than last seasons likely outlier is

To be clear, I never referenced Raymond's rookie season. I just view him as a 60-70 point talent. I could certainly eat crow on that evaluation but that's just what I currently project him as. He's currently playing at a 67 point pace so we're supposed to use that as a barometer for what he is going forward yet we're not allowed to use Stutzle's last full season in this comparison why exactly? Obviously his shooting percentage was unsustainable but I don't think a career 12-13% is unreasonable, which would have him pacing around 90 again this year despite the Sens struggling and him clearly playing hurt for parts of the year.
Oh so now we're going to move the goal posts around. Now you view him as a potential 70 point guy. 10 more points than 2 posts ago. Really tough to have any kind of realistic discussion when you get to just change what you think on a whim and dont know basic math.

You can use 67 points as a barometer because he has extremely normal underlying stats and hes 21 years old. If you want to stand on your first statement though, you can believe he'll only be a 60 point winger when hes 26, despite being on pace for 67 as a 21 year old.
His career average is about 13 %

With a season of over 17 percent mixed into his short career. I would bet it doesnt get much higher than it does now for his career
 

Akrapovince

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Do you know how math works? 8.6% shooting is closer to 12-13% than 17.1% is. Its not a bad view point its extremely basic math. This season based on what you think he'll shoot is statistically closer than last seasons likely outlier is


Oh so now we're going to move the goal posts around. Now you view him as a potential 70 point guy. 10 more points than 2 posts ago. Really tough to have any kind of realistic discussion when you get to just change what you think on a whim and dont know basic math.

You can use 67 points as a barometer because he has extremely normal underlying stats and hes 21 years old. If you want to stand on your first statement though, you can believe he'll only be a 60 point winger when hes 26, despite being on pace for 67 as a 21 year old.


With a season of over 17 percent mixed into his short career. I would bet it doesnt get much higher than it does now for his career
He is not a very selective shooter and seems to drive wide and take bad angle shots.

I love Stützle’s game but he is not very good with shot selection and executing his shot.

When he has time and space and if all circumstances are perfect he can rip it with the best of them though, which is the difference between okay, good and generational.
 
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CornerStone61

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Do you know how math works? 8.6% shooting is closer to 12-13% than 17.1% is. Its not a bad view point its extremely basic math. This season based on what you think he'll shoot is statistically closer than last seasons likely outlier is


Oh so now we're going to move the goal posts around. Now you view him as a potential 70 point guy. 10 more points than 2 posts ago. Really tough to have any kind of realistic discussion when you get to just change what you think on a whim and dont know basic math.

You can use 67 points as a barometer because he has extremely normal underlying stats and hes 21 years old. If you want to stand on your first statement though, you can believe he'll only be a 60 point winger when hes 26, despite being on pace for 67 as a 21 year old.


With a season of over 17 percent mixed into his short career. I would bet it doesnt get much higher than it does now for his career
Yes, I know how basic math works. Thanks for the condescension though, that seems to be a common theme in all of your posts so far. I figured you would say this but I just viewed it as being disingenuous. You could've said something along the lines of "his shooting percentage likely falls somewhere in the middle" but you didn't. I can only assume the reason being to further prop up Raymond while bringing down Stutzle.

60 points falls in the 60-70 range. He's on pace for 67 this year which isn't a 70 point player in my mind but the potential is certainly there. You think I'm dogging on him by saying this for some reason but I'm really not.

My question stills stands though, why is it fair to use Raymond's 67 point pace this year as a projection but we have to ignore Stutzle's year last year because of his shooting percentage, despite the fact that with a regression to the mean this year he would still be on pace for around 90?
 

newfy

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Yes, I know how basic math works. Thanks for the condescension though, that seems to be a common theme in all of your posts so far. I figured you would say this but I just viewed it as being disingenuous. You could've said something along the lines of "his shooting percentage likely falls somewhere in the middle" but you didn't. I can only assume the reason being to further prop up Raymond while bringing down Stutzle.

60 points falls in the 60-70 range. He's on pace for 67 this year which isn't a 70 point player in my mind but the potential is certainly there. You think I'm dogging on him by saying this for some reason but I'm really not.

My question stills stands though, why is it fair to use Raymond's 67 point pace this year as a projection but we have to ignore Stutzle's year last year because of his shooting percentage, despite the fact that with a regression to the mean this year he would still be on pace for around 90?
I said this year is probably closer to his norm than last year was, which is factual, but I'm the disingenuous one lol. You got done saying a couple posts ago that you see him as a 60 point winger going forward. You've since changed that to 60-70 points with the potential being there.

You were absolutely dogging him when you said you basically view him as his rookie season for the rest of his career and have changed your tune in almost every post since then, but I'm the problem lol. Even just saying hes only a 60-70 point player going forward is dogging him realistically, when hes on pace for 67 at 21 years old. You dont think his production will improve at all from this season going forward?

I didnt dodge your question at all, read my post. I said its fair to project him because hes on pace for 67 points while having extremely repeatable underlying stats and hes only 21. Odds are he will improve by the time hes 25-30. I've never said its unfair to call Stutzle a 90 point player either, I've said I wouldnt expect him to put up a bunch of 17+ percent shooting seasons, and I've said its unfair to say hes"AINEC better than Raymond". Complain about the condescension all you want but read my posts if you want to have an actual discussion.

Calling Stutzle a 90 point forward and saying Raymond is closer to him as a player as people are letting on in here arent mutually exclusive things. And for the record, if Stutzle is a 90 point guy, how is it that a 60 point guy like Raymond has the same primary production as him with 4 mins less per game? Must mean Raymond is pretty good, much better than a 60 point guy going forward
 

CornerStone61

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I said this year is probably closer to his norm than last year was, which is factual, but I'm the disingenuous one lol. You got done saying a couple posts ago that you see him as a 60 point winger going forward. You've since changed that to 60-70 points with the potential being there.

You were absolutely dogging him when you said you basically view him as his rookie season for the rest of his career and have changed your tune in almost every post since then, but I'm the problem lol. Even just saying hes only a 60-70 point player going forward is dogging him realistically, when hes on pace for 67 at 21 years old. You dont think his production will improve at all from this season going forward?

I didnt dodge your question at all, read my post. I said its fair to project him because hes on pace for 67 points while having extremely repeatable underlying stats and hes only 21. Odds are he will improve by the time hes 25-30. I've never said its unfair to call Stutzle a 90 point player either, I've said I wouldnt expect him to put up a bunch of 17+ percent shooting seasons, and I've said its unfair to say hes"AINEC better than Raymond". Complain about the condescension all you want but read my posts if you want to have an actual discussion.

Calling Stutzle a 90 point forward and saying Raymond is closer to him as a player as people are letting on in here arent mutually exclusive things. And for the record, if Stutzle is a 90 point guy, how is it that a 60 point guy like Raymond has the same primary production as him with 4 mins less per game? Must mean Raymond is pretty good, much better than a 60 point guy going forward
Sure, if you want to say 8.9% is closer to 12-13% than 17% then using basic math that is certainly closer, but that certainly didn't appear to be your intention with wording it that way.

Please quote where I said the bolded.

Again, 60 points falls into the 60-70 point range. I've viewed Raymond as a 60-70 point talent since he was drafted and that has absolutely nothing to do with his rookie season. To this point he has not eclipsed either of those totals (if we're being factual), though he's definitely likely to break 60 points this year. I could certainly eat crow on my projection but to this point he still falls in that range so I'm not sure how that's dogging him. 🤷‍♂️ Do you want me to call him an 80 point player or something when he's never reached that peak?

I can't say for sure what Raymond would do with those extra 4 minutes per game. There's no guarantee that would result in more production.

I am reading your posts, for the record. You did dodge my question in post prior, given you only commented on Raymond's projection. Let's look at what you said in one of your earlier posts:
do you think counting Stutzles higher than 17% shooting percentage from last year is going to be indicative of whats likely going forward? If anything, his 17% shooting percentage inflated what everyone thinks about him, and seeing the more realistic side this year
Now, we've already cleared up that I don't think he's going to maintain a 17% shooting percentage, but I do believe something in the 12-13% range is more realistic. Based on your wording though, and the fact that you've brought up Stutzle's secondary assists as a negative it sure seems like you're suggesting Stutzle isn't a 90 point player going forward. Tell me, based on the above wording, what do you project Stutzle's point production to look like going forward? Do you expect him to stagnate? While we're at it, what do you expect Raymond's point projection to look like in the future?
 

newfy

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Sure, if you want to say 8.9% is closer to 12-13% than 17% then using basic math that is certainly closer, but that certainly didn't appear to be your intention with wording it that way.

Please quote where I said the bolded.

Again, 60 points falls into the 60-70 point range. I've viewed Raymond as a 60-70 point talent since he was drafted and that has absolutely nothing to do with his rookie season. To this point he has not eclipsed either of those totals (if we're being factual), though he's definitely likely to break 60 points this year. I could certainly eat crow on my projection but to this point he still falls in that range so I'm not sure how that's dogging him. 🤷‍♂️ Do you want me to call him an 80 point player or something when he's never reached that peak?

I can't say for sure what Raymond would do with those extra 4 minutes per game. There's no guarantee that would result in more production.

I am reading your posts, for the record. You did dodge my question in post prior, given you only commented on Raymond's projection. Let's look at what you said in one of your earlier posts:

Now, we've already cleared up that I don't think he's going to maintain a 17% shooting percentage, but I do believe something in the 12-13% range is more realistic. Based on your wording though, and the fact that you've brought up Stutzle's secondary assists as a negative it sure seems like you're suggesting Stutzle isn't a 90 point player going forward. Tell me, based on the above wording, what do you project Stutzle's point production to look like going forward? Do you expect him to stagnate? While we're at it, what do you expect Raymond's point projection to look like in the future?
"I view Raymond as a 60 point winger and Stutzle as a 90 point center, so personally no I don't think they're close at all." - you saying you essentially view him as his rookie season going forward.

I'm done writing novels when you cant remember what youve posted. But what I will say is that saying Raymond is closer with Stutzle than you think, doesnt mean Stutzle is not a 90 point guy, it means I think Raymond could also be close to that. A big part of my reasoning for that is because primary points wise, Raymond can keep up with a guy getting 4 mins more per game while Raymond has sent half the year on PP2 as well. I think Raymond can be a point per game plus player in his prime. Raymond plays a more mature game, might lead to less points, but it also leads to less turnovers at the offensive blue line with chances going the other way, something the sens announcers literally complained about Stutzle doing last night.

Saying Raymond could be close to Stutzle is taken as an insult because sens fans have spent every offseason hyping up their team and cant fathom the fact that a guy drafted 4th overall, and trending really well could possibly stay close with Stutzle. Look how defensive its made you lol, you took me comparing Raymond to Stutzle as an insult and saying I dont think Stutzle could be a 90 point guy again. Youve made up a narrative in your head that I think Stutzle isnt good because I think Raymond is close to him and that 17% shooting is unrealistic lol.

Getting compared to Raymond isnt an insult, unless youre out to lunch enough to think Raymond is a 60 point winger going forward, and your uninformed opinion has you thinking these guys arent even remotely close
 
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Golden_Jet

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Do you know how math works? 8.6% shooting is closer to 12-13% than 17.1% is. Its not a bad view point its extremely basic math.
lol let’s see, who knows how basic math works.

17.1 - 13.0 = 4.1 %
13.0 - 8.5 = 4.5%

Strike 3 your out.

 
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newfy

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That’s so dumb. Not sure if deliberate or not, neither is a good look.
I used 12.5% for my math. Stutzles career shooting percentage at 13 is inflated with a 17.1% season, he was also shooting 8.6% at the time.

17.1 - 12.5 = 4.6
12.5 - 8.6 = 3.9

Not that dumb at all
 
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