Zadina probably starting out in GR

[Winger98]

Saying he was a second round pick DOES mean much though. I'm not sure there are "plenty" of superstars not drafted in the first round but if there is by your definition, what do you call the way more significant number of guys who amount to absolutely nothing? I would guess there is at least 30 who do absolutely nothing for every star. If you start counting third or 4th liners who were picked in the second round with the complete nobodies I bet there is something like 50 or 60 for every one superstar. Especially in the last decade where scouting in European countries has mostly equalled out among teams.

Its up to you if you want to be disappointed in a second round pick not becoming a first line player or a star but just know that its more likely youre going to be disappointed and its a ridiculous stance/prediction to take/make given the history of the draft

Don't we see production start dipping by pick 5 or 6? Then it plateaus for a few picks, then it dips again? Part of the push to finish as one of the few worst teams is the likelihood of not just picking first, but just picking high enough where it gets a lot more difficult to not get an impact player. Even by the time it gets to the sixth or seventh pick, the real hope is that there were at least three or four teams that simply screwed up and didn't pick the right guy. that's the real hope with Zadina, that Montreal, Ottawa, and Arizona just plain screwed up.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Don't we see production start dipping by pick 5 or 6? Then it plateaus for a few picks, then it dips again? Part of the push to finish as one of the few worst teams is the likelihood of not just picking first, but just picking high enough where it gets a lot more difficult to not get an impact player. Even by the time it gets to the sixth or seventh pick, the real hope is that there were at least three or four teams that simply screwed up and didn't pick the right guy. that's the real hope with Zadina, that Montreal, Ottawa, and Arizona just plain screwed up.

The odds are the higher you pick the better CHANCE those players have to be stars/superstars. This is obvious. But to say just because someone didn't go in the 1st that they cant be a superstar and their ceiling has to be inconsistent Mantha is also laughable.

 

[Frk It]

Don't we see production start dipping by pick 5 or 6? Then it plateaus for a few picks, then it dips again? Part of the push to finish as one of the few worst teams is the likelihood of not just picking first, but just picking high enough where it gets a lot more difficult to not get an impact player. Even by the time it gets to the sixth or seventh pick, the real hope is that there were at least three or four teams that simply screwed up and didn't pick the right guy. that's the real hope with Zadina, that Montreal, Ottawa, and Arizona just plain screwed up.

It’s after pick 3, which coincides with why the new lottery made it harder to get a top 3 pick.

 

[The Zermanator]

The odds are the higher you pick the better CHANCE those players have to be stars/superstars. This is obvious. But to say just because someone didn't go in the 1st that they cant be a superstar and their ceiling has to be inconsistent Mantha is also laughable.

And no one has said that once, at all. You're arguing with the clouds.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

It’s after pick 3, which coincides with why the new lottery made it harder to get a top 3 pick.

But the great thing about sports/competition is its not where you are drafted. Case and point any draft older than 5 years if you redid it the order of rankings will always vastly change. These are teams predictions based on body of work of young underage BOYS.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

And no one has said that once, at all. You're arguing with the clouds.

What? I said it would be disappointing if Berggren ended up like Mantha then draft order was brought up. SOME ONE did say that. Read the entire thread before you chime in bud.

 

[The Zermanator]

What? I said it would be disappointing if Berggren ended up like Mantha then draft order was brought up. SOME ONE did say that. Read the entire thread before you chime in bud.

But to say just because someone didn't go in the 1st that they cant be a superstar and their ceiling has to be inconsistent Mantha is also laughable.

Nobody said that, and feel free to prove me wrong. Perhaps you read it and didn't understand bud.

 

[Wooren]

Now to be fair, both Rantanen and Pastrnak each had a full year of pro hockey under their belt before they came to the AHL.

Rantenan had 9g, 19a, 56 gp in Liiga.
Pastrnak had 8g, 16a, 34 gp in the Allsvenskan

Then they came over and put up those nice numbers. Going from European pro to AHL is going to be easier than CHL to AHL.

Zadina spent majority of his D-1 season in Extraliga.
He barely got any ice-time though, hence the low production.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

What? I said it would be disappointing if Berggren ended up like Mantha then draft order was brought up. SOME ONE did say that. Read the entire thread before you chime in bud.

I know you're meaning me, so just go ahead and toss my name out there.

And what I said is that it is lunacy to expect a 2nd rounder to be a star. They absolutely can become it (see Nikita Kucherov, Shea Weber, PK Subban, Duncan Keith, etc.) but you don't come out of a draft expecting that that guy is going to be one. Not by the existing history of the draft that we have and the failure rate of picks outside of the very early 1st round.

Hell, our 2011 2nd round was given good marks as we took Ouellet and Jurco who were supposed to be really good players. Both ended up being garbage.

And if you're given a chance to lock in a 33OA as being a top 6 forward who will score about 50 points a season with the skill to score more, I think any team in the league would pull that lever right now. If you could remove all risk from Berggren and say "he's going to score at a 0.60 PPG clip while playing with okay talent (as Mantha doesn't usually skate with Larkin I don't think)" or you let things play out as normal, I think the chances of locked in Berggren having a better career than natural Berggren are much higher than the other way around.

 

[TCNorthstars]

I know you're meaning me, so just go ahead and toss my name out there.

And what I said is that it is lunacy to expect a 2nd rounder to be a star. They absolutely can become it (see Nikita Kucherov, Shea Weber, PK Subban, Duncan Keith, etc.) but you don't come out of a draft expecting that that guy is going to be one. Not by the existing history of the draft that we have and the failure rate of picks outside of the very early 1st round.

Hell, our 2011 2nd round was given good marks as we took Ouellet and Jurco who were supposed to be really good players. Both ended up being garbage.

And if you're given a chance to lock in a 33OA as being a top 6 forward who will score about 50 points a season with the skill to score more, I think any team in the league would pull that lever right now. If you could remove all risk from Berggren and say "he's going to score at a 0.60 PPG clip while playing with okay talent (as Mantha doesn't usually skate with Larkin I don't think)" or you let things play out as normal, I think the chances of locked in Berggren having a better career than natural Berggren are much higher than the other way around.

I don't think Ouellet is garbage. I think he has actually outplayed his draft position.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Nobody said that, and feel free to prove me wrong. Perhaps you read it and didn't understand bud.

It was Implied. Read between the lines, it can be difficult but I believe in you.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

I know you're meaning me, so just go ahead and toss my name out there.

And what I said is that it is lunacy to expect a 2nd rounder to be a star. They absolutely can become it (see Nikita Kucherov, Shea Weber, PK Subban, Duncan Keith, etc.) but you don't come out of a draft expecting that that guy is going to be one. Not by the existing history of the draft that we have and the failure rate of picks outside of the very early 1st round.

Hell, our 2011 2nd round was given good marks as we took Ouellet and Jurco who were supposed to be really good players. Both ended up being garbage.

And if you're given a chance to lock in a 33OA as being a top 6 forward who will score about 50 points a season with the skill to score more, I think any team in the league would pull that lever right now. If you could remove all risk from Berggren and say "he's going to score at a 0.60 PPG clip while playing with okay talent (as Mantha doesn't usually skate with Larkin I don't think)" or you let things play out as normal, I think the chances of locked in Berggren having a better career than natural Berggren are much higher than the other way around.

The past doesn't equal the future. Berggren isn't Jurco or XO... Berggren will be a superstar player. I've watched him a lot. Also watched Mantha. Save this post.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I don't think Ouellet is garbage. I think he has actually outplayed his draft position.

As a bottom pairing D with 26 points in 157 games who is dead even +/-?

I mean, maybe garbage was a bit far, but he's like the living embodiment of just there... I suppose him being in the NHL for 157 games and not being a minus player is pretty good.

 

[lilidk]

I'll be honest, I don't really care about what they do in the AHL. If Zadina can get himself into good shooting positions and get himself high quality scoring chances, that's what I worry about. Stat-watching is stat-watching. If he can do more of what he did in this last game... even if goalies save the shots, I'll be happy with his growth.

Zadina when he makes it to Detroit will have better players feeding him the puck. I don't know how helpful "benchmarking" him by points in the AHL is. How were Rantanen and Pastrnak's teams?

we only need to get those better players

 

[Flowah]

Don't we see production start dipping by pick 5 or 6?

It's a stark difference between defensemen and forwards. For example the 1OA average PPG from 2005-2015 was .42 for d-men. For 2OA it was .51. For picks 1-5 the average was .36, for picks 1-10 it was .36, for picks 1-15 it was .37. For 16-30 it was .30. Not a huge gap there for anyone really.

But for forwards it's enormous.

1OA - .95 PPG
2OA - .68 PPG
3OA - .7 PPG

And it's quicker than from picks 5, 6.

Obviously a drop of .25 PPG from picks 1 to 2/3 is enormous. But picks 4-8 was another .12 PPG below them at .58.

1OA is huge. Top3 is huge.

The gap between picks 3-15 and 16-30 is a mere .07.

 

[The Zermanator]

It was Implied. Read between the lines, it can be difficult but I believe in you.

If you think a forum for Red Wings fans would imply that superstars can't be picked outside the first round, then you're out to lunch.

Datsyuk, 5th round
Zetterberg, 6th round
Lidstrom, 3rd round
Fedorov, 4th round

Be as condescending as you want, you're just making yourself look foolish.

EDIT: typo

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Let's not get too fooled by this. Zadina is scoring, and that's great. But he's always been a very high end scorer, and the Wings didn't leave him off the roster because they doubted his ability to score.

 

[TatarTangle]

To lighten the mood a little, in all fairness T2V could be Biff Tannen

 

[newfy]

Ok i guess if we don't pick first overall we have zero chance at a superstar. LOL!The irony is a team like Detroit has had at least 6 of them in the past 20-30 years taken waaaaay later than the second round.
https://thehockeywriters.com/the-best-late-round-nhl-draft-picks/
Draft position isn't the end all be all. Saying a 18 yr old that wasn't a first round pick so he has to be worse than Mantha is absurd. You all will see though . I will be bumping this when Berggren makes you fall out your "GM" couches

Nobody said theres 0 chance at a superstar if its not a first overall pick, its expecting one that is outrageous in the second round. I also said in my post that its a lot tougher to do nowadays with scouting equalling out in different european countries compared to the past. Using your examples from 30 years ago seems like a stretch and was specifically addressed in my post. Unless theres an iron curtain the wings can start defecting players out of again that I'm not aware of, I wouldnt be using years where the USSR was still a superpower as proof of anything nowdays

The way you exaggerate and dont read replies properly is getting pretty old. You might be the first one to go on my ignore list.

What? I said it would be disappointing if Berggren ended up like Mantha then draft order was brought up. SOME ONE did say that. Read the entire thread before you chime in bud.

Lol at you telling him to read the entire thread. Yes draft order was brought up because it is a great indicator of how good a player is going to be in the future. A top 5 pick, is likely better than a 30th overall and so on. Expecting a second rounder to for sure be better than a legit top 6 winger, who in his first full season scored 24 goals is way too high of expectations for a second rounder. Mantha is likely to be a multiple 30 goal scorer in his career.

Read this next part really carefully before you reply:

No one is saying he CANT be better than Mantha, but given past history of the draft its unlikely that he will be better and Mantha isnt a superstar. Given past history, expecting a second rounder to be a superstar is pretty outrageous given how little that actually happens. It has happened, and it is possible that it happens with Berggren BUT expecting it and being disappointed when it doesnt happen is setting the bar higher than it should be. Plenty of people have won the lottery, its still pretty ridiculous to expect to win if you buy a ticket. It could happen, but its not likely. Same with drafting a superstar in the second round or later

 

[Winger98]

It's a stark difference between defensemen and forwards. For example the 1OA average PPG from 2005-2015 was .42 for d-men. For 2OA it was .51. For picks 1-5 the average was .36, for picks 1-10 it was .36, for picks 1-15 it was .37. For 16-30 it was .30. Not a huge gap there for anyone really.

But for forwards it's enormous.

1OA - .95 PPG
2OA - .68 PPG
3OA - .7 PPG

And it's quicker than from picks 5, 6.

Obviously a drop of .25 PPG from picks 1 to 2/3 is enormous. But picks 4-8 was another .12 PPG below them at .58.

1OA is huge. Top3 is huge.

The gap between picks 3-15 and 16-30 is a mere .07.

Thanks for the numbers, Flowah. I don't think I'd seen it broken up between forwards and D before, either. The only question that pops immediately to mind is how much guys like McDavid, Crosby, and Malkin skew the 1OA number. Going back over the last twenty years and removing the two highest and two lowest performing players from each position could be interesting, if something like that wasn't already done.

Two observations: One, we should feel better about McIsaac. He was picked close enough to the 1st round that, if he makes it, we should probably see reasonable production from him. nothing earth shattering, but decent. And we have to hope the Wings seeing Zadina as the third best player in the draft plays out. Give me the 57 point guy over the 47 point guy.

 

[TCNorthstars]

As a bottom pairing D with 26 points in 157 games who is dead even +/-?

I mean, maybe garbage was a bit far, but he's like the living embodiment of just there... I suppose him being in the NHL for 157 games and not being a minus player is pretty good.

Looking back X looks pretty good!

48 picks back to 2006 and their NHL careers:
06 Ben Maxwell 0
07 Antoine Lafleur 0
08 Mitch Wahl 0
09 Brett Ponich 0
10 Curtis Hamilton 1
11 X 157
12 Dillon Fournier 0
13 Zach Nasty 0
14 Nocolas Aube-Kubel 7
15 Filip Chlapik 0 too soon to tell
16 Carter Hart G 0 too soon to tell
17 Alexander Volkov 0 too soon to tell
18 Johathan Tychonick 0 too soon to tell

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Let's not get too fooled by this. Zadina is scoring, and that's great. But he's always been a very high end scorer, and the Wings didn't leave him off the roster because they doubted his ability to score.

Precisely.

 

[Flowah]

McDavid, Crosby, and Malkin skew the 1OA number.

I think it's "skewed" because they're THAT good. Crosby, Kane, Stamkos, Tavares, Hall, MacKinnon, McDavid, Matthews. Those are some really damn good players.

But you've still got a few "busts" in there like Yakupov, RNH, and Erik Johnson.

 

[Flowah]

Looking back X looks pretty good!

Literally any regular NHL player found in the 2nd round and on is doing better than the average draft pick from their position. In data I gathered last year (so numbers may be slightly different this year) 37.5% of 2nd round defensemen drafted between 2005-2015 played 41+ NHL games. That's it. Only 37.5%. Almost 2/3 of all NHL defensemen draft picks from the 2nd round don't even play a half season in the NHL. Numbers go down as low as 10% in round 7. Overall, from round 2-7, it's a 21% chance.

I don't think people realize how hard it is to find even NHL level players in the draft outside the first round.

 

[Frk It]

Nothing “skews” the numbers. All the data is relevant and creates a spectrum.