He's very talented. Why did he drop to 9?
I'm so happy he did drop!
While I think the question is rhetorical, it's still nice to reflect on such great luck! We know the top two picks were set. So that leaves six picks between the top two and us. Lots of people thought picks 2 - 8 were interchangeable. What lead Z to us were two teams picking two defensemen higher than expected. So three centers and three defensemen were taken between 3 - 8. I'd actually be happy with centers Dach, Turcotte, or Cozens, but I didn't think we'd have a chance at any of those centers, including Z. The only defenseman projected by mass media in the 3-8 range was Byram. Yet both defensemen Seider and Broberg leapfrogged into the 3-8 range. The only team ahead of us that could have nabbed Z were the Oilers, but I think they saw the "another Swedish defensemen to the Ducks" trajectory and snatched Broberg up. I wanted Broberg badly, but seeing Z just fall like that is a far better gift than a consolation prize! Detroit already zoned in on Seider (he's to the Wings this year like Hampus was to the Ducks in 2012, coincidentally selected 6th overall as well).
I do have one theory. As I was doing research on Brayden Tracey's WJC-18 production, I also ended up looking at Z's production (i just want to call him "silky" b/c that's the description that comes to mind when tweets say he's smooth so often.) When Z was playing on the same ice with other top prospects, some teams de-valued him (Krebs got de-valued due to injury).
WJC-18 productions
5th (overall in 2019 NHL draft). Turcotte 4g, 5a = 9 pts
7th. Cozens 4g, 5a = 9 pts
9th. Zegras 0g, 9a = 9 pts
8. D Broberg 2g, 4a = 6 pts
Dach is a 6'4 center (he didn't participate in WJC's due to injury) and C Hughes is... well, Hughes. Z is 6' and not Hughes. hahahhaha Just using the WJC-18 production, it feels as if Z turtles as a goal scorer. Z does find others who can score. Thus, my theory is Z dropped because of his production in the WJC-18 as teams were looking for players who can score goals and get assists, which includes defensemen.
On a tangential thought, the WJC-18 raised Brayden Tracey's value to the Ducks' scouting staff. Tracey's WHL production was high due to playing on a line with two overagers who scored more than Tracey. Brayden's production may be suspect, but seeing that production continue to be consistent at the WJC-18 elevated his status with the Ducks. It was that consistency at the WJC-18 is probably why the Ducks favored him over more well known, mass media projected talents.
29th. Tracey 4g, 3 a = 7 pts in WJC-18.
That's a top-5 scorer for team Canada.
In the end, a Zegras - Tracey combo appears to be a perfect complement to each other. Z can pass and Tracey can shoot. Z has a very high talent level, but the WJC-18 de-valued his status to teams looking for a goal scorer in the top-8. Defensemen who can score automatically surpass Z on the draft chart despite the talent that Z possesses inherently. Thank goodness the Ducks' scouting staff has different metrics. Z is a higher end situation to the 2018 NHL draft where Lundestrom fell to the Ducks. Lundestrom was projected to be a safe pick who's the most NHL-ready prospect due to his defense. Lundestrom fell out of the teens in the first round projection and Anaheim scooped him up at pick 23. Although Lundestrom didn't show much offensively on North American soil last year, his scoring production jump up across the pond. At pick 23, Lundestrom was an obvious pick for the Ducks. At pick 9, Z was an obvious pick for the Ducks. In 2013, D Shea Theodore was an obvious pick for the Ducks at 26th overall. In 2010, D Fowler was an obvious pick at 12th overall.
Though Z was selected 9th overall, there was a lot of talent that pushed Z down. If we drafted any of those players above Z instead of Z at 9th overall, I'd still be content b/c those players are still that talented. That's a testament to this draft class' talent level. I never expected Z to drop. I was looking at the lower tiered talents of the top-8 as well as projecting some mid-teen prospects to rise such as Broberg and Seider. Hell, I'm still stunned we landed Z!