Will the Great 8 score 895?

[CapitalsCupReality]

#2 will be fine.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I suspect I watch more hockey in a week then you do in a month or a season. I also play on 2 or 3 different teams at any one time, yes I know how to skate, do you?

How in the world do you dare to comment on my hockey watching when you know nothing about me other then I don't blindly hero worship someone.

Ovechkin is a great goal scorer, he doesn't play complete hockey all that well.

Honestly who gives a crap about “complete”? He’s arguably the best at the most important skill in the game. This is a goal scoring thread. Go start an Ovechkin will never win the Selke thread so we can all laugh at you and your smugness.

 

[Iapyi]

Honestly who gives a crap about “complete”? He’s arguably the best at the most important skill in the game. This is a goal scoring thread. Go start an Ovechkin will never win the Selke thread so we can all laugh at you and your smugness.

Truth hurts. Talk to the others of your ilk, I simply made a comment based on my opinion and got attacked for it. I call BS.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Truth hurts. Talk to the others of your ilk, I simply made a comment based on my opinion and got attacked for it. I call BS.

Your off topic “truth” doesn’t matter in this goalscoring discussion.

 

[Varan]

I suspect I watch more hockey in a week then you do in a month or a season. I also play on 2 or 3 different teams at any one time, yes I know how to skate, do you?

How in the world do you dare to comment on my hockey watching when you know nothing about me other then I don't blindly hero worship someone.

Ovechkin is a great goal scorer, he doesn't play complete hockey all that well.

what in the world does playing hockey have do to with your watching hockey? lmaoooo

since you watch a lot of hockey, you would know that since Trotz came in, he forced OV to take on more defensively responsibilities while still maintaining his offence. compared to his earlier days, he’s levels above defensively now. he was basically playing 100 foot hockey in his peak, i also contribute that to the run and gun style offence that Bruce used to run.

he’s no stout defensively, but he has certainly shown improvements

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I think these next couple of seasons will be telling about whether or not he can do it. If he can score 50+ each of the next two, chances are good. If he starts to "decline" into a 30-40 goal guy, it'll be tougher.

 

[Sam Spade]

#2 will be fine.

THIS!!

I cannot stress enough how awesome it would be for it to be Gretzky/Ovechkin at the top of that all time leader board.

 

[Iapyi]

Your off topic “truth” doesn’t matter in this goalscoring discussion.

At least you admit the truth, tragically you are blaming me for taking this "off topic" when in fact it was another poster. Matter of fact I have steered discussion towards non-derailment.

 

[Iapyi]

what in the world does playing hockey have do to with your watching hockey? lmaoooo

since you watch a lot of hockey, you would know that since Trotz came in, he forced OV to take on more defensively responsibilities while still maintaining his offence. compared to his earlier days, he’s levels above defensively now. he was basically playing 100 foot hockey in his peak, i also contribute that to the run and gun style offence that Bruce used to run.

he’s no stout defensively, but he has certainly shown improvements

Thanks for proving my point. Bravo.

 

[Varan]

Thanks for proving my point. Bravo.

what point? that you don’t watch OV enough to make an objective opinion of him? if that’s the case than you’re very welcome

 

[Iapyi]

what point? that you don’t watch OV enough to make an objective opinion of him? if that’s the case than you’re very welcome

Stay subjective, it's you.

 

[Hostile Offer]

Inexperienced fans are so adorable. It's cute the way they try to denigrate anyone who doesn't agree with them. Misconstrue semantics all you want, it only speaks to you and no one else.

Ironic

 

[Iapyi]

Ironic

I know, it's so transparent.

 

[groovejuice]

@NotProkofievian I'm just seeing this article for the first time. Superbly presented! I'm a fan of Ovechkin and am pulling for him to pass Howe.

After that, who knows?

 

[txpd]

I think these next couple of seasons will be telling about whether or not he can do it. If he can score 50+ each of the next two, chances are good. If he starts to "decline" into a 30-40 goal guy, it'll be tougher.

I think the numbers are pretty straight forward. If Ovechkin scores only 50 this year, that sets him 186 goals from the record. He is on pace for 57 this season. That leaves him 179 short. If he has just one more near 50 goal season, that drops him into the 130ish range as his new contract starts. That's 4 seasons averaging around 32 per season. Frankly, at that point I would say its pretty likely.

 

[discobob]

I ran my own simulation, in 1,000,000 trials Ovechkin does it 56% of the time. Also, there is one test case where he scores his 1,000 goal in Pittsburgh, and then takes a dump on the penguin logo... true story

 

[Confused Turnip]

I think the numbers are pretty straight forward. If Ovechkin scores only 50 this year, that sets him 186 goals from the record. He is on pace for 57 this season. That leaves him 179 short. If he has just one more near 50 goal season, that drops him into the 130ish range as his new contract starts. That's 4 seasons averaging around 32 per season. Frankly, at that point I would say its pretty likely.

That post was written in July, this would be one of the two 50 goal seasons he was talking about. Fwiw I agree with the two of you on this, another 50 goal season after this one and he's in a position where it's kinda the likely outcome.

 

[CapsJunkie]

when he hangs em up he will have over 1000

 

[barabas21]

I really hope he does because being born in 86 he is a player I saw his whole career. Unfortunately I don’t think he will and I hope I’m wrong. My guess is he ends up at 815-830

 

[Kuznetsnow]

I think the numbers are pretty straight forward. If Ovechkin scores only 50 this year, that sets him 186 goals from the record. He is on pace for 57 this season. That leaves him 179 short. If he has just one more near 50 goal season, that drops him into the 130ish range as his new contract starts. That's 4 seasons averaging around 32 per season. Frankly, at that point I would say its pretty likely.

But will he go down as good enough at the all important Left Wing Super Amazing Shutdown Defensive Play Thing That Hockey Leftwingers Do Apparently metric for it to matter

 

[M2Beezy]

I just talked to my friend Jeffrey and we both agreed he will reach 895 goals

 

[Nemesis Prime]

It'll happen and it will be glorious.

 

[McShogun99]

I think he'll do it if he plays 6 more seasons. I'd like to see him play until he's 44 and hit 1000 goals.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

To model his scoring rate, I draw samples from a Gaussian distribution fit to his GPG in his 14 seasons in the NHL. First, a line of best fit is found to model the trend of scoring throughout his career. This is slightly negative and likely underestimates the effect of ageing. For each year, a sample is drawn from a distribution with the mean given by this trend, and standard deviation given by the year to year variance of his goal scoring.

Out of curiosity, why a Gaussian (normal) distribution rather than the Poisson distribution?

 

[bobholly39]

I think the numbers are pretty straight forward. If Ovechkin scores only 50 this year, that sets him 186 goals from the record. He is on pace for 57 this season. That leaves him 179 short. If he has just one more near 50 goal season, that drops him into the 130ish range as his new contract starts. That's 4 seasons averaging around 32 per season. Frankly, at that point I would say its pretty likely.

The biggest x-factor here is what Ovechkin wants to do. He keeps on getting closer and closer, to the point where it almost feels like a certainty that he can surpass it looking at numbers today. But it'll depend how badly he wants to.

Maybe by age 38, he'll have won another cup, maybe 2 - and maybe he'll be longing to retire and enjoy life, maybe go back to Russia, and not want to deal with the grueling schedule anymore. Does he commit to a whole extra year of his life, 82 grueling game - just to try and get the 31 goals he's missing to hit the record? And what if he only scores 27 that year - does he then commit two more such years of his life?
Or even worst - maybe he declines significantly in the next 2-3 years, and decides he doesn't want to play an extra season or two as a support player in a less important role, just to chase a record.

I know fans are super excited about him breaking the record - but i think a lot of it will depend on how bad he wants it. He can probably hit it for sure if he plays till ages 41, 42+, even with decline. But will he want to? If he remains elite longer - it increases the likelihood he'd stick around.