txpd
Registered User
It's a myth TV that Ovechkin wants to play in the khl. As far as I can see he will take a management job with the capitals upon retiring. For signals on Ov see what Backstrom does
Will the Great 8 score 895?
- Thread starter NotProkofievian
- Start date
It's a myth TV that Ovechkin wants to play in the khl. As far as I can see he will take a management job with the capitals upon retiring. For signals on Ov see what Backstrom does
DudeWhereIsMakar
Bergevin sent me an offer sheet
I honestly believe Ovi could play until he's 50 or older. He just has the body to do it. But I do believe as well he hits 900 goals, or if Ovi wants 895. Ovi I think plays in Russia if the NHL doesn't let him play in the Olympics.
He might have 1000 of something but it won't be 1000 goals.
I honestly doubt that he will even cross 1000 NHL goals even if you added up the regular season and playoffs.
he is already the best goalscorer of all time IMO and the rest of the story is just going to be interesting.
Long Live Lyle
Registered User
I think he’ll keep playing until he breaks it. If, hypothetically, he gets 14 more goals this season, that’ll put him 190 goals short. I see no reason why he couldn’t play until he was 41 (seven more seasons) if he wanted to, and he’d only have to average about 27 goals per year. If he played until he was 42 (eight seasons), he wouldn’t even have to average 25 per year.
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hockey20000
Registered User
- Dec 23, 2018
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i dont think he breaks it.. however I think he finishes 2nd all tme in goals.. somewhere around 840-860.
- Apr 27, 2005
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Crazy he's gotten this close. His raw strength and athleticism should allow him to have a Jagr like decline, so I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect him to be able to play up until at least 40. That gives him 6 more seasons after this one.
After this year, he'll likely only need about 185 more goals to break the record. I'd say it's likely he breaks the record if he plays until 40. Heck, there's a good chance he could break 800 goals before he's 37. That would give him 4 full years to score 95 more. If Jagr could score 83 goals in 4 years between age 41 and 44, I think Ovechkin could easily do 95 between 37 and 40.
After this year, he'll likely only need about 185 more goals to break the record. I'd say it's likely he breaks the record if he plays until 40. Heck, there's a good chance he could break 800 goals before he's 37. That would give him 4 full years to score 95 more. If Jagr could score 83 goals in 4 years between age 41 and 44, I think Ovechkin could easily do 95 between 37 and 40.
East Coast Icestyle
Registered User
I wasnt so much talking about KHL as much as return to live home in Russia. Dont know much about his personal life, but many European athletes go back to live home after their career. By age ~38 thats likely to be an important dynamic in his decision to keep playing or not
CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
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txpd
Registered User
Honestly, you cant suggest future behavior on the part of Ovechkin unless you have an idea of what he is like. He is an NHL player first and foremost. That was his dream and desire and that remains the case. He has an usually close relationship with the owner of the team as does Backstrom. I am not sure that Ov plays until they rip the uniform off of him but that's more likely than him quitting early.
He wants his son to watch him play. Just like people thought the Caps would recruit top Russian players around they league and didn't, Ovechkin loves to play for his country but that is not the same as playing IN his country.
txpd
Registered User
Newusername
Registered User
- Jun 26, 2013
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You can manipulate the age. I don't think it's an accumulative number and only players that specific age but it happens a lot more than I though it would have. The base problem though is still, who can you compare Ovechkin to? He's not normal in a group of abnormal players.
36-Year Old NHL Players - Regular Season Stats
CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
- Feb 27, 2002
- 64,648
- 19,481
So, the \lambda parameter in a poisson distribution would be the rate over a fixed period, whereas there's a latent random variable in this case being the number of games played. So, when you take a sample of the poisson distribution to get a positive integer being the number of goals he scored in a season, you would have to find some way to deal with the games played. I suppose you could do this with truncation or subsampling. This is not to say that a.) I even considered the poisson distribution at first, so thanks for making me think of it, and b.) that a gaussian is best. Just some thoughts.
Holtbyisms
Matt Irwin is a legit talent
Which makes all of the “if he plays to 41...” comments pretty comical. The “he only needs to average...” stuff is fine to discuss, but it’s disconnected from reality.
Gretzky was completely shot at 37. The idea of him continuing another 4 seasons is painful. If anything, I think he stayed 1 year too long.
Anything is possible (guy is coming off back-to-back hat tricks) but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he tops out at 35 goals next season and declines from there.
It's happened exactly 15 times with Gordie Howe and Johnny Bucyk doing it 3 times each and in both players case they had another year at age 29.
Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com
Agree with a lot here but the fact is that Ovechkin is 35 next year and it's becoming obvious that he isn't a force 5 on 5 anymore and at some point the caps putting him out there for almost 5 MPG on the PP and having only a 11-4-15 PPP for that time is actually hurting the team more than helping it.
He’s 2nd in the league in ES goals. 16th in the league in ES points. What does he need to do to “be a force” in your view?
Hatfield
Registered User
- Jan 27, 2007
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Gretzky hadn’t been an especially productive goal scorer since he first arrived in LA (relative to era/previous production). Even by his last season in Edmonton he was firmly a pass-first player. His skillset was such that he didn’t have to be the trigger man. Then he had the injury issues in the early 90s.
Point being, he tailed off for reasons that are unique to him. With Ovechkin, everything is riding on health and desire to keep playing.
ujju2
Registered User
ESGF/ESGA ratio is just really lousy for a top team in the league plain and simple.
He is still an opportunistic scorer as we saw just before the break but he is hardly a guy who drives play anymore and not a guy that you build your team around, even in fantasy circles, unless +/- doesn't matter.
.8947 on ice sv% where league average sits in the .91 range. Can't put that on him.
So youre basing your assessment of Ovi on his assumed performance in hypothetical fantasy leagues?
Neat.
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