Will the Great 8 score 895?

[filinski77]

I believe any rhetoric on Ovy being a one trick pony is highly misplaced. He has an all time elite skill, and the team puts that to good use. He is generally at 70% OZ starts and leads the league in PP time (4:25, 19 seconds more than anyone else) because of that skill. The team BEGS him to score goals, puts him in a position to maximize it, and that is what he does. He has far less chance to shine in other areas (even though he does shine at them) because he is simply not put into a position often enough to show that part of his game. And it is also a good reason why he can break the record, there is no reason for the team to utilize him otherwise. Expect him to continue with 70% zone starts and average 4 minutes of PP time, and the goals will just continue to come, maybe slower, but he is just not utilized like any other player in the league and it will show. Even average goal scorers can look pretty good with that kind of deployment, Ovy just looks unstoppable.

And let's be honest about elite, I hear elite all the time describing a certain prospects or players game because it is the dominant part of their game. The word "elite" is used far too often in describing some part of a players game because it overshadows the rest of their game. True elite is when it overshadows everyones game. To me Ovy goal scoring prowess (call it shot, instincts, etc) is the most "elite" skill I have seen in the last 15 years. I think he is far beyond the next best goal scorer more so than McDavids skating is better than the next player on the list.

Ovi averages 56.8% ozone stars over his whole career, and has never been over 60% for a season.

 

[deckercky]

I think assuming he "wants it" enough - he will absolutely hit the target. He's getting close enough that he's within striking distance. Barring some big decline in the next 2 seasons - which seems almost unrealistic to be so sudden - and barring some major injuries/time missed (impossible to predict) - he'll hit it if he stays long enough to do so.

This is the thing ignored in an analysis like the OP does. If Ovechkin wants to break the scoring record and is close to it, he'll keep playing to reach that record. If he falls 20 goals short, does anyone see him not playing another season (barring injuries)?

 

[Voight]

doubt it, OV has won his cup, he has proven that he is one of the greatest goal scorers in hockey history. When he becomes a UFA he likely signs a one or two year deal in the NHL or most likely IMO bolts back to Russia for the most Rubles ever paid to an athlete and an unlimited lifetime supply of Vodka.

If the record is in sight I see no reason why he'd leave. Now that he has his ring, its the only thing left for him to do. Plus having a Russian hold one of the most important/biggest records in the league would be huge for the country and for himself back home.

Let’s say he plays until he’s 40.

That’s 6 more seasons. He would need to score on average 39.5 goals per season.

Let’s say he has two more 50 goal seasons. That would mean he needs 34.25 goals per season (4 left)

It seems unlikely given his style of play that he can play at such a high level, but I’m hoping he does it and if anyone can, it’s the Great 8.

People say that, but here we are 14 years later and he's never had a serious injury. Some athletes are just built differently.

 

[Blueboy]

People say that, but here we are 14 years later and he's never had a serious injury. Some athletes are just built differently.

Not talking about an injury, age catches up to everyone. When does it catch up to OV?

 

[deckercky]

Not talking about an injury, age catches up to everyone. When does it catch up to OV?

Russian machine never breaks.

 

[Thenameless]

Ovechkin has only 2 years left on his contract, then he's UFA. Your silly charts fail to take into account the chance that Ovechkin signs with the Oilers and spends the next 4 years on a lawnchair, slapping McDavids passes from the faceoff circles

The OP is trying to go with statistical realism with his "silly" charts. Ovechkin joining the Oilers is what's silly.

 

[Thenameless]

I don't mind giving him the greatest goal scorer crown based on what he's done already. It is a harder era to score in for sure, and he's not done yet. Having said that, I don't think he'll make Gretzky's number. He'll be 34 at the start of next season and he's still 237 goals away. A career 500 goal scorer is the mark of a great goal scorer, so he'd basically have to achieve roughly around half the career of a great goal scorer but starting at age 34. That doesn't sound too likely even for one of the best ever. Father time can eat away at you slowly like it did for Howe and Jagr, or it can come down on you like a ton of bricks like it did to Vincent Lecavalier. Guys like Howe and Jagr are extremely rare.

One positive for sure though is that if Ovechkin has a good next couple of years, and fizzles after that, I'm pretty sure the Capitals will bring him back for an extra season or two if it looks realistic and he wants to go for it. It would be something for a franchise to be able to say that they have the greatest goal scorer of all time, and that all of those goals were scored for their team.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I don't mind giving him the greatest goal scorer crown based on what he's done already. It is a harder era to score in for sure, and he's not done yet. Having said that, I don't think he'll make Gretzky's number. He'll be 34 at the start of next season and he's still 237 goals away. A career 500 goal scorer is the mark of a great goal scorer, so he'd basically have to achieve roughly around half the career of a great goal scorer but starting at age 34. That doesn't sound too likely even for one of the best ever. Father time can eat away at you slowly like it did for Howe and Jagr, or it can come down on you like a ton of bricks like it did to Vincent Lecavalier. Guys like Howe and Jagr are extremely rare.

One positive for sure though is that if Ovechkin has a good next couple of years, and fizzles after that, I'm pretty sure the Capitals will bring him back for an extra season or two if it looks realistic and he wants to go for it. It would be something for a franchise to be able to say that they have the greatest goal scorer of all time, and that all of those goals were scored for their team.

Ovie can write his own contract as far as ted is concerned.

 

[SaltNPeca]

I hope he overcomes the stats to become the GOAT, but it's hard to see it coming true. #2 in points in all time goals wouldn't be too shabby either. 800 career goals is insane.

 

[Voight]

Not talking about an injury, age catches up to everyone. When does it catch up to OV?

Personally I feel like he is in the Howe/Jagr/Chelios class of players who can play well into their 40's.

 

[Blueboy]

Personally I feel like he is in the Howe/Jagr/Chelios class of players who can play well into their 40's.

I hope so.

 

[Roshi]

I think its 2027 last game of the regular season. 58:15 in the Clock. Ovie has just scored his second of the game against Devils for Caps to take the lead 4-3 and the crowd is wild as its also Ovies nr 894 career goal. He has just tied the great one. Also he has already made the announcement to retire after this season.

Devils take a timeout. Their season is on the line, they need one point to make the playoffs. Their head coach Sidney Crosby looks disgusted and sends their veteran goalie Jaroslav Halak back in the net for the remaining 105 seconds. Devils turtle out and defend their one goal loss.

 

[Slapshot Sultan]

His one trick is offense.

His defensive game is weak and virtually non-existent.

I certainly never said he was breaking down.

I actually think he has a chance to break the record as his goal scoring capabilities are very strong and I can see him physically being around for a while longer.

Putting words in others mouths is childish.

So there are two tricks in hockey and Bergeron is a two trick pony?

 

[alphabetical]

His one trick is offense.

His defensive game is weak and virtually non-existent.

I certainly never said he was breaking down.

I actually think he has a chance to break the record as his goal scoring capabilities are very strong and I can see him physically being around for a while longer.

Putting words in others mouths is childish.

Offense isn't a trick. You clearly do not understand hockey.

Again, his defensive game has improved significantly, but you'd have to watch hockey games to have a valid opinion on them.

 

[traparatus]

Watch him score 70 this season

Hahaha, that would be so awesome. Just because he is Ovechkin and doesn't give a **** about when you are 'supposed' to slow down.

I've given up trying to apply human trends to Ovechkin. What's the point? He keeps doing things that he is not 'supposed' to do.

It's a hell of a record to get to and it's by no means easy or guaranteed. The highest number of goals scored in the history of the NHL. That's insane. I sure hope he gets there.

 

[Kamina]

I bet Ovechkin wants to do it so he'll get close at least.

 

[hamzarocks]

Hell do it. I see him playing 6 more years. Less than 40 goal a season and he gets the record. Ovy is gonna be the goat goal scorer and 6th-10th best player all time

 

[Iapyi]

Offense isn't a trick. You clearly do not understand hockey.

Again, his defensive game has improved significantly, but you'd have to watch hockey games to have a valid opinion on them.

It's adorable how anyone with a different opinion then an Ovechkin fan means they don't watch hockey.

 

[RVACapsFan]

I could see the guy at 41 being a third liner/PP specialist and still hammering 20 or so goals per year just to get the record.

 

[alphabetical]

It's adorable how anyone with a different opinion then an Ovechkin fan means they don't watch hockey.

Keep telling me how ovechkin only scores from his office. Your assertions in this thread truly demonstrate your lack of familiarity with ovechkin, suggesting you don't watch the games.

 

[Iapyi]

Keep telling me how ovechkin only scores from his office. Your assertions in this thread truly demonstrate your lack of familiarity with ovechkin, suggesting you don't watch the games.

That's okay, just means you're wrong, again. Not only do I watch the games I have played the game for about 50 years, something I somehow doubt that you can say,

 

[Habaneros]

Gretzky at age 33 ...scored 38 goals
Ovy8 at age 33.... scored 51 goals

Now, from ages 34 to 38

Gretzky

34 yrs old ...11 goals
35 yrs old ..23 goals
36 yrs old 25 goals
37 yrs old 23 goals
38 yrs old 9 goals...


Ovy8, would not shock me to see him still blast 37-40 goals season at age 37......

If he play pasts 40 ..he'll break the record IMHO

 

[Habaneros]

Gretzky scored 91 goals his final 5 yrs in Nhl from 34 to 38 years old...

I'd bet money Ovy out paces that

If Jagr can score 24 goals at age 41 ... 27 goals at age 43...a motivated Ovy 8 can do the same IMHO......just comes down to if ya still love the game....that kept Jagr still trying to fill the net even in his 40's..he was putting his stamp on the record book,finishing 2nd all time leading scorer in NHL ....

Ovy would be short changing himself not to stick around and break the goal record....


Jagr scored 92 goals from ages 39 to 42 ...

then from ages 43 to 44..he scored another 42 goals .....

 

[alphabetical]

Once and that is not name calling. You're sounding desperate. It may help you once you learn that people have different opinions about everything single subject that exists. There is nothing on earth that everyone agrees on 100%.

Good luck.

It is the definition of name calling, but i suppose that's just my opinion. Just like my opinion is that only 30% of ovechkins goals come from his office. Your opinion is that they all do. My opinion is that he's got many tools in his game, while you believe that all he has is a single "trick". My opinion is that his defense has improved. Your opinion is that he's gone from .00 to .03 on defense...?

My opinion is that you don't watch ovechkin play. Your opinions suggest a lack of familiarity with his play. You have asserted that you watch the game, not specifying what teams or on what frequency.

You have the right to hold foolish opinions, but you do not have the right to redefine reality to suit your assertions. Your indignant bull**** is reminiscent of fox news...

 

[DrewGl]

He is the only player currently playing that has a shot at beating the record. Sit back and watch I guess. Ovi will not leave the Caps....had he not won the Cup with them then maybe he would have, but he did.