Will the Great 8 score 895?

[Hockey4Lyfe]

He is the only player currently playing that has a shot at beating the record. Sit back and watch I guess. Ovi will not leave the Caps....had he not won the Cup with them then maybe he would have, but he did.

We have no clue what the younger generation of goal scorers will do so it’s impossible to say if he’s the only one playing.

Laine is just going into his age 21 season and already has 110 goals on his resumé. He averages 40 a year, he’d have to play to right around 40 years old which is what everyone expects Ovechkin will have to do.

Laine came into the league two years before Ovechkin did and thus had a 76 goal jump on Ovechkin. If he ever figures it out and starts pumping in 50 goal seasons, Ovechkin may break the record only for it to be broken again 15-20 years from now.

We can only say for sure that Ovechkin is the only one that can break it that will be retiring in the next decade. After that, it’s all how these guys perform.

 

[Tage2Tuch]

in early 2014 I had this discussion with a caps fan I had classes with at U of T. He argued that if ovie scored 50 for the next 4 years, then 40 for 4 years after that then a few 30 goal seasons he would get there. I thought he was crazy because ovie had scored 30 in the last 3 years (albeit the last of those 3 was the shortened season). Well **** its been 6 years and he has basically scored 50 in 5 of them. I think he has more than 5 seasons left, if the NHL can avoid a work stoppage next year he can do it.

He can do it but that doesent mean he should do it or it will be easy, he would have to be amazing for way longer to pull this off and I hope it happens.

Gretzky has all the record Ovechkin should
Get this one since is in my mind the GOAT at burying the biscuit.

 

[SeanConn]

Yes, he will. 900 for that matter too!

 

[ottawah]

Ovi averages 56.8% ozone stars over his whole career, and has never been over 60% for a season.

Alex Ovechkin NHL Advanced Statistics (All) | Hockey-Reference.com

I see 68.3% for his whole career.

you are probably looking at 5v5 only, but when evaluating how many goals he will score, I am counting all ice time to try and gauge his deployment.

 

[ottawah]

We have no clue what the younger generation of goal scorers will do so it’s impossible to say if he’s the only one playing.

Laine is just going into his age 21 season and already has 110 goals on his resumé. He averages 40 a year, he’d have to play to right around 40 years old which is what everyone expects Ovechkin will have to do.

Laine came into the league two years before Ovechkin did and thus had a 76 goal jump on Ovechkin. If he ever figures it out and starts pumping in 50 goal seasons, Ovechkin may break the record only for it to be broken again 15-20 years from now.

We can only say for sure that Ovechkin is the only one that can break it that will be retiring in the next decade. After that, it’s all how these guys perform.

Missing one big IF. Health. Ovy has missed 28 games due to injury in his career. That may be just as impressive as his goal total. Top players get hard physical play against them which can really wear them down, but its not that Ovy has avoided the physical play, just that his body can take the beating. Laine has already missed 9! (lol). But he already has noted back issues at age 20, and the truth is I am generally skeptical that a player with back issues at 2o is going to be able to keep up an Ovy level of pace for another 20 years.

Mike Bossy was at about 550 goals when he hit age 29 and the back reared its head. If he had stayed as healthy as Ovy, this would be a non issue, Bossy would have had 1000 goals and be unreachable in all likelihood.

For the younger players coming up that may want a run at the goal total, its not just averaging 40, which is nigh on impossible these days for any length of time it seems, it is staying healthy.

Stamkos for example is not that far off that pace, but has missed 1.5 seasons already. If he was as healthy as Ovy he would be at 450+ at the moment which at 29 would give him an outside chance. But missing 1.5 seasons in his prime has likely stopped his chances.

 

[Iapyi]

It is the definition of name calling, but i suppose that's just my opinion. Just like my opinion is that only 30% of ovechkins goals come from his office. Your opinion is that they all do. My opinion is that he's got many tools in his game, while you believe that all he has is a single "trick". My opinion is that his defense has improved. Your opinion is that he's gone from .00 to .03 on defense...?

My opinion is that you don't watch ovechkin play. Your opinions suggest a lack of familiarity with his play. You have asserted that you watch the game, not specifying what teams or on what frequency.

You have the right to hold foolish opinions, but you do not have the right to redefine reality to suit your assertions. Your indignant bull**** is reminiscent of fox news...

You should get your letters in order. Pure poppycock.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

Missing one big IF. Health. Ovy has missed 28 games due to injury in his career. That may be just as impressive as his goal total. Top players get hard physical play against them which can really wear them down, but its not that Ovy has avoided the physical play, just that his body can take the beating. Laine has already missed 9! (lol). But he already has noted back issues at age 20, and the truth is I am generally skeptical that a player with back issues at 2o is going to be able to keep up an Ovy level of pace for another 20 years.

Mike Bossy was at about 550 goals when he hit age 29 and the back reared its head. If he had stayed as healthy as Ovy, this would be a non issue, Bossy would have had 1000 goals and be unreachable in all likelihood.

For the younger players coming up that may want a run at the goal total, its not just averaging 40, which is nigh on impossible these days for any length of time it seems, it is staying healthy.

Stamkos for example is not that far off that pace, but has missed 1.5 seasons already. If he was as healthy as Ovy he would be at 450+ at the moment which at 29 would give him an outside chance. But missing 1.5 seasons in his prime has likely stopped his chances.

Your whole point is why the original comment that I quoted shouldn’t have been said to begin with.

There are way too many IF’s to make a statement that there’s no one in the league that can pass the record.

And it’s an IF also for all the guys to get hurt, also.

 

[Kcoyote3]

His one trick is offense.

His defensive game is weak and virtually non-existent.

I certainly never said he was breaking down.

I actually think he has a chance to break the record as his goal scoring capabilities are very strong and I can see him physically being around for a while longer.

Putting words in others mouths is childish.

Thank god he's not a defenseman.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

We have no clue what the younger generation of goal scorers will do so it’s impossible to say if he’s the only one playing.

Laine is just going into his age 21 season and already has 110 goals on his resumé. He averages 40 a year, he’d have to play to right around 40 years old which is what everyone expects Ovechkin will have to do.

Laine came into the league two years before Ovechkin did and thus had a 76 goal jump on Ovechkin. If he ever figures it out and starts pumping in 50 goal seasons, Ovechkin may break the record only for it to be broken again 15-20 years from now.

We can only say for sure that Ovechkin is the only one that can break it that will be retiring in the next decade. After that, it’s all how these guys perform.

I think there's something to be said for this as it's easier than ever for younger players to play in the NHL right from the get go (Far less physicality means physically less mature players can come in and showcase right away) To me it has nothing to do with the total numbers with goals, there's so many factors in relation to era and uniquely with Ovechkin, he had to suffer through 2 lockouts that robbed him from probably a MINIMUM of 75 goals, likely more.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Something I haven't seen mentioned is that now much family means to OV he may want to continue playing a lot longer than some expect so his son can see him break records, win more cups, become GOAT...

Also - and this is just speculation - the little OV was born in August by design, and born in the USA by design (will he play for team USA in the Olympics?)... will OV ever go home?

Maybe his wife really likes America and little OV is going to be growing up and going to school in DC - are they going to yank him away from his friends and move him to Moscow?? Maybe? But Maybe not. And what if little OV plays in the NHL (I hope the Caps draft him!), is dad gonna wanna watch in person or on TV from Russia??? Maybe not rushing to play in the KHL after all? I could be wrong but maybe not...

 

[Iapyi]

Thank god he's not a defenseman.

Never know, if he was a dman and applied his focus on that aspect of the game he might have been the best dman ever.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

I think there's something to be said for this as it's easier than ever for younger players to play in the NHL right from the get go (Far less physicality means physically less mature players can come in and showcase right away) To me it has nothing to do with the total numbers with goals, there's so many factors in relation to era and uniquely with Ovechkin, he had to suffer through 2 lockouts that robbed him from probably a MINIMUM of 75 goals, likely more.

At the end of the day, no one is really going to care or remember how they got to it. All that matters is the number they end up with.

If Ovechkin makes it to 895 and spends the last couple years actually hurting his team and just getting 15 goal seasons, while being a detriment to the team...

No one will remember that in 10 years. All they will remember is that he set the record.

Just like if Laine or anyone else were to beat it by just putting in 40-50 goal seasons for 20 years.

All you need to beat that record is a very good goal scorer to just stay ridiculously healthy for a very long time. The consistency needed is what makes the record ridiculous. It isn’t necessarily the outrageousness of the record.

If we are talking about the hardest record to beat by actually having to play out of your mind while being healthy and consistent, it would be the Points record.

That is probably to only true untouchable record in the NHL.

 

[Shrimper]

Hockey reference only has 1979 to now. But the most goals scored by a 34 year old any beyond to 51 is 232 for Teemu Selanne.

Ovechkin needs 236.

Not impossible but it depends if he stays in Washington and he probably needs another 50 goal season. That would leave him needing 186.

 

[rintinw]

Hockey reference only has 1979 to now. But the most goals scored by a 34 year old any beyond to 51 is 232 for Teemu Selanne.

Ovechkin needs 236.

Not impossible but it depends if he stays in Washington and he probably needs another 50 goal season. That would leave him needing 186.

Bucyk had 275, Howe had 299.

 

[Buf fan in Nash]

Can he? Yes but he will need 7-9 healthy seasons to do it which seems unlikely.

 

[AdamoR61]

As of this season, Alexander Ovechkin must score 237 goals in order to better The Great One's all time goalscoring record. In this thread I do some back of the envelope calculations to estimate with what probability that will happen, and plot the results.

Key assumptions: I assume that he will play 5 more seasons. One could of course assume more or fewer. There are two main sources of uncertainty with this calculation: how many games will he play, and at what rate will he score. In each case a distribution must be assumed. For each distributional assumption you will get a different result.

To model his scoring rate, I draw samples from a Gaussian distribution fit to his GPG in his 14 seasons in the NHL. First, a line of best fit is found to model the trend of scoring throughout his career. This is slightly negative and likely underestimates the effect of ageing. For each year, a sample is drawn from a distribution with the mean given by this trend, and standard deviation given by the year to year variance of his goal scoring.

View attachment 244669

To model the number of games he will play I use a triangular distribution with its peak at 78, max at 82 (obvs) and minimum at 67, which is 5 fewer than the smallest number of games Ovi has played in a full length season. Ovechkin has been an extremely healthy player during his career, but obviously this could change.

The two are multiplied together and rounded down to give an estimate of goals scored in a given year. This process is repeated for each of his remaining 5 years, and 10,000 montecarlo trials are done.

Results: Here is the normalized histogram for 100,000 trials and the empirical CDF.

View attachment 244687

View attachment 244671



TL;DR: There's about a 4% chance that Ovechkin scores 895 or more under these assumptions. In this case, we can pretty safely conclude that a severe injury or a lockout would basically eliminate the possibility of Ovechkin setting a new record.

However, the total isn't the only record up for grabs. Also in jeopardy is the number of 50 goal seasons record. Under these assumptions, Ovechkin has about an 18% chance of setting the new record (10). However, under these assumptions, it is almost a certainty that Ovechkin will eclipse Gordie Howe for 2nd all time on the scoring list. Given league scoring trends and games missed to lockouts, I don't think it's a stretch to say that Ovechkin very well may be the greatest goalscorer who ever lived.

Fantastic piece of work! I don't see why Ovi would slow down his production, most of his goals are from the powerplay and require little to no effort for his standards (not calling him bad, just saying its better on the body to take one timers all day instead digging in the corners and battling in front of the net)

 

[McFlash97]

OV has a chance to catch Howe if he plays another 4 seasons. Gretzky is just too out of reach. In 4 years OV will be close to 39. He would need to play until 43 to really have a realistic shot. He is not scoring 30 plus goals every year after age 40 too. Not going to happen. He should def go hard after Howe to finish 2nd all time.

 

[wetcoast]

OV has a chance to catch Howe if he plays another 4 seasons. Gretzky is just too out of reach. In 4 years OV will be close to 39. He would need to play until 43 to really have a realistic shot. He is not scoring 30 plus goals every year after age 40 too. Not going to happen. He should def go hard after Howe to finish 2nd all time.

I don't think that he makes it, even though I think he is the best goal scorer of all time.

Not a single player has scored more than 38 goals in the last 9 years aged 34+

Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

Now I'm pretty sure AO can reach 40 next year but I think his 50 goal seasons are probably over.

 

[DrewGl]

He will need help from the likes of his line mates to step up to get him back up on ES goals aka get him room. He's going to keep scoring on the PP for quite some time.

 

[Varan]

Well he is quite good at his one trick.

ahh I found a non-hockey watcher!

you're telling me that trick got him 17 awards in the NHL? a trick fooled an entire pro league of hockey? the highest level of hockey fell for a trick?

damn the NHL must suck

 

[Varan]

Offense isn't a trick. You clearly do not understand hockey.

Again, his defensive game has improved significantly, but you'd have to watch hockey games to have a valid opinion on them.

well, you have your answer there

 

[justafan22]

He has 2 more years on his deal, and will be going into his age 36 season under a new contract.

Let's assume he signs a 3 year deal.

I'll give him 182 goals for the next 5 years, bringing him to 840 goals.

He still would need 52 goals to pass him at age 39.

It's not impossible, but he needs to stay in the nhl for at least 6 more years and have 2 more 50 goal seasons.

 

[Iapyi]

ahh I found a non-hockey watcher!

you're telling me that trick got him 17 awards in the NHL? a trick fooled an entire pro league of hockey? the highest level of hockey fell for a trick?

damn the NHL must suck

Inexperienced fans are so adorable. It's cute the way they try to denigrate anyone who doesn't agree with them. Misconstrue semantics all you want, it only speaks to you and no one else.

 

[Varan]

Inexperienced fans are so adorable. It's cute the way they try to denigrate anyone who doesn't agree with them. Misconstrue semantics all you want, it only speaks to you and no one else.

inexperienced is calling someone 1-dimensional when you don’t even take the time to watch said player, instead you watch a few highlights, check the box score and make a conclusion from it.

 

[Iapyi]

inexperienced is calling someone 1-dimensional when you don’t even take the time to watch said player, instead you watch a few highlights, check the box score and make a conclusion from it.

I suspect I watch more hockey in a week then you do in a month or a season. I also play on 2 or 3 different teams at any one time, yes I know how to skate, do you?

How in the world do you dare to comment on my hockey watching when you know nothing about me other then I don't blindly hero worship someone.

Ovechkin is a great goal scorer, he doesn't play complete hockey all that well.