Will the Great 8 score 895?

NotProkofievian

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Nov 29, 2011
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As of this season, Alexander Ovechkin must score 237 goals in order to better The Great One's all time goalscoring record. In this thread I do some back of the envelope calculations to estimate with what probability that will happen, and plot the results.

Key assumptions: I assume that he will play 5 more seasons. One could of course assume more or fewer. There are two main sources of uncertainty with this calculation: how many games will he play, and at what rate will he score. In each case a distribution must be assumed. For each distributional assumption you will get a different result.

To model his scoring rate, I draw samples from a Gaussian distribution fit to his GPG in his 14 seasons in the NHL. First, a line of best fit is found to model the trend of scoring throughout his career. This is slightly negative and likely underestimates the effect of ageing. For each year, a sample is drawn from a distribution with the mean given by this trend, and standard deviation given by the year to year variance of his goal scoring.

View attachment 244669

To model the number of games he will play I use a triangular distribution with its peak at 78, max at 82 (obvs) and minimum at 67, which is 5 fewer than the smallest number of games Ovi has played in a full length season. Ovechkin has been an extremely healthy player during his career, but obviously this could change.

The two are multiplied together and rounded down to give an estimate of goals scored in a given year. This process is repeated for each of his remaining 5 years, and 10,000 montecarlo trials are done.

Results: Here is the normalized histogram for 100,000 trials and the empirical CDF.

View attachment 244687

View attachment 244671



TL;DR: There's about a 4% chance that Ovechkin scores 895 or more under these assumptions. In this case, we can pretty safely conclude that a severe injury or a lockout would basically eliminate the possibility of Ovechkin setting a new record.

However, the total isn't the only record up for grabs. Also in jeopardy is the number of 50 goal seasons record. Under these assumptions, Ovechkin has about an 18% chance of setting the new record (10). However, under these assumptions, it is almost a certainty that Ovechkin will eclipse Gordie Howe for 2nd all time on the scoring list. Given league scoring trends and games missed to lockouts, I don't think it's a stretch to say that Ovechkin very well may be the greatest goalscorer who ever lived.
 
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Nervousbreakdown

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Jul 3, 2017
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in early 2014 I had this discussion with a caps fan I had classes with at U of T. He argued that if ovie scored 50 for the next 4 years, then 40 for 4 years after that then a few 30 goal seasons he would get there. I thought he was crazy because ovie had scored 30 in the last 3 years (albeit the last of those 3 was the shortened season). Well shit its been 6 years and he has basically scored 50 in 5 of them. I think he has more than 5 seasons left, if the NHL can avoid a work stoppage next year he can do it.
 

NotProkofievian

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Nov 29, 2011
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in early 2014 I had this discussion with a caps fan I had classes with at U of T. He argued that if ovie scored 50 for the next 4 years, then 40 for 4 years after that then a few 30 goal seasons he would get there. I thought he was crazy because ovie had scored 30 in the last 3 years (albeit the last of those 3 was the shortened season). Well **** its been 6 years and he has basically scored 50 in 5 of them. I think he has more than 5 seasons left, if the NHL can avoid a work stoppage next year he can do it.

I think the next question I'll answer is calculating the probability of breaking the great one's record conditioned on a variety of events. For example, the probability would go way up if he had a 50+ goal season next year. Conversely it would go down if he had a bad year.

The fact that it's not 0, and the fact that he has a roughly 1% chance of failing to best Gordie Howe is unbelievable. We're watching the next 800 goal scorer at the moment.
 

DearDiary

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Ovechkin has only 2 years left on his contract, then he's UFA. Your silly charts fail to take into account the chance that Ovechkin signs with the Oilers and spends the next 4 years on a lawnchair, slapping McDavids passes from the faceoff circles
 

5 Minute Major

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Ovechkin has only 2 years left on his contract, then he's UFA. Your silly charts fail to take into account the chance that Ovechkin signs with the Oilers and spends the next 4 years on a lawnchair, slapping McDavids passes from the faceoff circles

His charts aren’t as silly as you suggesting he may end up in Edmonton.
 

CartographerNo611

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Oct 11, 2014
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If Backstrom and Carlson remain a threat and healthy yes. Most of Ovie's goals come on the powerplay because those 2 are such a threat which allows Ovie to float into his office pretty much scot free. Rarely does Ovie drive the offense and score on his own like his early days. He can either be a 30 goal scorer or a 50 goal scorer, really depends on who is on the ice with him.
 

WingsMJN2965

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Oct 13, 2017
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Depends on how long he wants to keep playing.

On one hand, he could pull a Jagr and go to the KHL.

On the other, he could pull a Jagr and play until he's 45. Even if he's useless everywhere else, he can still slap in PP goals from his office.
 

Andon

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Oct 23, 2016
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You don't need all the nerd calculations to say that he won't get there in 5 seasons. Of course he won't, but that was just your assumption that 5 it is.
He might get there if he enjoys playing in the league for a long time and stays healthy. 40+ of age. No need for the pointless graphs.
 
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Kcoyote3

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If Backstrom and Carlson remain a threat and healthy yes. Most of Ovie's goals come on the powerplay because those 2 are such a threat which allows Ovie to float into his office pretty much scot free. Rarely does Ovie drive the offense and score on his own like his early days. He can either be a 30 goal scorer or a 50 goal scorer, really depends on who is on the ice with him.
I mean, he scored 33/51 at even strength last year, so most on the PP isn't accurate
 

Syan Ruter

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Nov 8, 2012
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Lol at people ITT calling it "nerd calculations".

This was very informative and thank you for the post! I would have thought that the probability was higher than the given 0,04%, but like you pointed out, the probability would increase/decrease depending on the next season obviously.

I would love to see the probability going with median or average goals per season just to see the difference.

Quality stuff like this is amazing to see!
 

CartographerNo611

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Oct 11, 2014
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And as he gets older and slower, he's likely to still be an effective PPer, as it requires much less movement.

So you are implying as he gets older and slower he will score less, or be less effective on 5 on 5 and rely on the pp to net goals. Glad you came around to my conclusion. :)
 

JasonRoseEh

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Oct 23, 2018
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If Backstrom and Carlson remain a threat and healthy yes. Most of Ovie's goals come on the powerplay because those 2 are such a threat which allows Ovie to float into his office pretty much scot free. Rarely does Ovie drive the offense and score on his own like his early days. He can either be a 30 goal scorer or a 50 goal scorer, really depends on who is on the ice with him.
I mean did you even watch the first round in the playoffs? Ovechkin was the best player in the LEAGUE through the first round and drove the offense constantly. This is a false post.

Yes Ovechkin isn't as fast as he used to be and definitely conserves energy but when he wants it, it's still there and he's proven that. This assumption that he just floats around reeks of bias.
 
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CartographerNo611

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I mean did you even watch the first round in the playoffs? Ovechkin was the best player in the LEAGUE through the first round and drove the offense constantly. This is a false post.

You mean the playoffs against a lower seeded team with 2 career back up goalies that some how looked elite against the great 8, Mr. 895. Why yes, I did watch that.
 

NotProkofievian

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Nov 29, 2011
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Lol at people ITT calling it "nerd calculations".

I didn't choose the nerd life, the nerd life chose me.

This was very informative and thank you for the post! I would have thought that the probability was higher than the given 0,04%, but like you pointed out, the probability would increase/decrease depending on the next season obviously.

I would love to see the probability going with median or average goals per season just to see the difference.

Quality stuff like this is amazing to see!

Ask, and you shall receive. I redid the simulations with a constant mean (as opposed to a decreasing one) taken as the mean of his career season GPGs (not weighted by game played) and median of his career GPGs. This way you still have year to year variation in the goal scoring, but the trend is constant. Otherwise, you could just calculate the result from the triangular distribution, which wouldn't be very interesting.

The trend makes an enormous difference compared to his career average. The probability shoots up to 32 percent in the case of the mean, and 54 percent if you use the median. The probability with which he'd eclipse Bossy/Gretzky's 9 50 goal seasons rises to 52 and 69 percent. So the trend make an enormous difference.
 

Hockey Outsider

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Jan 16, 2005
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As of this season, Alexander Ovechkin must score 237 goals in order to better The Great One's all time goalscoring record. In this thread I do some back of the envelope calculations to estimate with what probability that will happen, and plot the results.

Great analysis. If it's not too much trouble to run the numbers, what's the probability of Ovechkin reaching 895 if he plays six, seven or eight more years?
 

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