Will the Great 8 score 895?

[CanadianPensFan1]

What a new and novel thread idea.

And no. 894.5 and thats it

 

[Mike8]

Curious in history, how many players have scored 30+ as a 37, 38, 39 year old...

Looking to some recent great goal scorers:

	Avg goals / season	Avg goals / season (age 31-35)	Avg goals / season (age 36-40)		Career			31-35	36-40
Brett Hull	48	39	33		0.58	82		0.48	0.41
Jaromir Jagr	36	36	24		0.44			0.44	0.29	(ages 39-43)
Marcel Dionne	44	44	27		0.54			0.53	0.33	(ages 36-37 only)
Phil Esposito	46	50	31		0.56			0.60	0.38	(ages 36-38 only)
Mike Gartner	40	40	28		0.49			0.49	0.34	(ages 36-38 only)
Mark Messier	33	34	26		0.4			0.41	0.31	(gpg ratio dropped ~50% upon move to Vancouver)
Steve Yzerman	38	28	20		0.46			0.35	0.24
Teemu Selanne	39	29	39		0.47			0.35	0.48
Brendan Shanahan	35	34	34		0.43			0.41	0.41
Dave Andreychuk	32	27	22		0.39			0.33	0.27
Jarome Iginla	33	36	24		0.4			0.44	0.30
Joe Sakic	37	38	26		0.45			0.46	0.32
Mark Recchi	29	26	23		0.35			0.32	0.28
Joe Nieuwendyk	37	33	26		0.45			0.40	0.32
Mike Modano	30	27	22		0.37			0.33	0.27
Patrick Marleau	27	30	24		0.33			0.36	0.29
Marian Hossa	33	33	23		0.4			0.40	0.28	(ages 36-38 only)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This list (as imperfect as it is) indicates a drop-off of ~23% in goal scoring for 36-40 years olds from ages 31-35. Meaning if Ovechkin's average is anywhere north of 40 goals for 31-35, then he should score ~31 goals on average from 36-40 based on this entirely imperfect sample.

 

[Dondini]

Looking to some recent great goal scorers:

	Avg goals / season	Avg goals / season (age 31-35)	Avg goals / season (age 36-40)		Career			31-35	36-40
Brett Hull	48	39	33		0.58	82		0.48	0.41
Jaromir Jagr	36	36	24		0.44			0.44	0.29	(ages 39-43)
Marcel Dionne	44	44	27		0.54			0.53	0.33	(ages 36-37 only)
Phil Esposito	46	50	31		0.56			0.60	0.38	(ages 36-38 only)
Mike Gartner	40	40	28		0.49			0.49	0.34	(ages 36-38 only)
Mark Messier	33	34	26		0.4			0.41	0.31	(gpg ratio dropped ~50% upon move to Vancouver)
Steve Yzerman	38	28	20		0.46			0.35	0.24
Teemu Selanne	39	29	39		0.47			0.35	0.48
Brendan Shanahan	35	34	34		0.43			0.41	0.41
Dave Andreychuk	32	27	22		0.39			0.33	0.27
Jarome Iginla	33	36	24		0.4			0.44	0.30
Joe Sakic	37	38	26		0.45			0.46	0.32
Mark Recchi	29	26	23		0.35			0.32	0.28
Joe Nieuwendyk	37	33	26		0.45			0.40	0.32
Mike Modano	30	27	22		0.37			0.33	0.27
Patrick Marleau	27	30	24		0.33			0.36	0.29
Marian Hossa	33	33	23		0.4			0.40	0.28	(ages 36-38 only)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This list (as imperfect as it is) indicates a drop-off of ~23% in goal scoring for 36-40 years olds from ages 31-35. Meaning if Ovechkin's average is anywhere north of 40 goals for 31-35, then he should score ~31 goals on average from 36-40 based on this entirely imperfect sample.

yah I think he will score 30+ in all seasons he’s healthy from 36-40. His shot is that good. Basically all’s he has to do is avoid any major injuries and play another 5-6 years

 

[GrandmaSlices51631]

Barring injury, I do believe he will. Even if he falls off significantly he just needs to keep up this pace for two more seasons. In other words, I'm saying if he is healthy and close, he will continue playing. He is extremely durable and he can be a PP specialist for quite some time with his skill set.

 

[wetcoast]

So youre basing your assessment of Ovi on his assumed performance in hypothetical fantasy leagues?

Neat.

Yes that's exactly what I said....wait no actually it isn't.

Ovi isn't anything special 5 on 5 and hasn't been for a while now.

 

[playasRus]

Is it weird I want him to finish at 888?

 

[Shmuffalo]

I think he falls just short. He's 34 this year and needs 237 goals to get 895. I think he plays until he's 38 and will get 170-200 goals moe.

I think, barring injury/ability, he'll keep playing if he's that close at 38.

 

[thadd]

Ask me again in 2 years.
If he's just as productive in the goal scoring department for the rest of this season and the next two seasons, how can't he do it?

 

[gtrower]

Yes that's exactly what I said....wait no actually it isn't.

Ovi isn't anything special 5 on 5 and hasn't been for a while now.

 

[SwaggySpungo]

Gretzky hadn’t been an especially productive goal scorer since he first arrived in LA (relative to era/previous production). Even by his last season in Edmonton he was firmly a pass-first player. His skillset was such that he didn’t have to be the trigger man. Then he had the injury issues in the early 90s.

Point being, he tailed off for reasons that are unique to him. With Ovechkin, everything is riding on health and desire to keep playing.

That’s not quite true. Gretzky went from 90 points and 3rd in league scoring (I believe) to 60 points and no longer an offensive threat in only 1 year.

Age isn’t just about health. It’s reflexes. It’s testosterone. It’s endurance. It’s speed. It’s ability to train. It affects basically every part of an athletes performance.

 

[Hatfield]

That’s not quite true. Gretzky went from 90 points and 3rd in league scoring (I believe) to 60 points and no longer an offensive threat in only 1 year.

Age isn’t just about health. It’s reflexes. It’s testosterone. It’s endurance. It’s speed. It’s ability to train. It affects basically every part of an athletes performance.

I thought we were just talking about goals, and the fact that Wayne seemed to be "shot" in that regard for basically the second half of his career. He did have a big POINTS drop off in his final season (when he was actually 39, I believe?) but he also missed a dozen games.

 

[Kuz]

Yes that's exactly what I said....wait no actually it isn't.

Ovi isn't anything special 5 on 5 and hasn't been for a while now.

Did you see him on the Stanley Cup winning Capitals? When Ovi wants he can still dominate 5vs5. The thing is the Caps is one of the absolute best teams in the NHL and they just don't need to go all out every night and can save themselves for the playoff. Still he has the most EVG the last 3 seasons (Including this) and 11th most EVP. So you have pretty high standards for what a good even strength player is if Ovechkin is not one of them.

 

[Dr Pepper]

I reckon Ovy will be one of the youngest to ever hit 700, no?

Assuming he gets there this season, that is.

 

[txpd]

Yes that's exactly what I said....wait no actually it isn't.

Ovi isn't anything special 5 on 5 and hasn't been for a while now.

The most evg over the last 5 seasons. Ovechkin. The most evg over the 10 seasons. Ovechkin. Nope. Nothing special.

 

[Oil Dood]

That’s not quite true. Gretzky went from 90 points and 3rd in league scoring (I believe) to 60 points and no longer an offensive threat in only 1 year.

Age isn’t just about health. It’s reflexes. It’s testosterone. It’s endurance. It’s speed. It’s ability to train. It affects basically every part of an athletes performance.

I think for Gretzky it was not just his health but mentally he was burned out. He had been the best player in the league for a long time and the main ambassador for the game. It was his time.

 

[Confused Turnip]

I reckon Ovy will be one of the youngest to ever hit 700, no?

Assuming he gets there this season, that is.

Ovi is currently at 692 goals, 1133 games played and age 34. He should end up second by both GP and age.

 

[Nordique]

Yes, he will. I think he has 4 more full on seasons in him, and 4 more as an aging PP specialist if he so desires.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

yah I think he will score 30+ in all seasons he’s healthy from 36-40. His shot is that good. Basically all’s he has to do is avoid any major injuries and play another 5-6 years

It isn't just his shot, it's his size and strength that will allow him to still score when he's having a stretch where he's not shooting it clean which happens to snipers. Ovi will be able to bully himself to spots until he decides it's time to retire, he's a big guy that is much stronger than his size lets on. That, along with his lethal shot are what will get him the record as he gets longer in the tooth.

 

[Fallschirmyager]

Ovi is currently at 692 goals, 1133 games played and age 34. He should end up second by both GP and age.

I seem to recall a graphic in where he also had the chance to be the fewest games between 600 and 700 goals.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Curious in history, how many players have scored 30+ as a 37, 38, 39 year old...

Selänne had 31 goals at 40 years old.

 

[Wedontneedroads]

That one timer from the left side doesn't age.

He might not get some of the other highlight reel goals, but he can pot 20-30 of those every year until he is 40 if he wants.

 

[Confused Turnip]

I seem to recall a graphic in where he also had the chance to be the fewest games between 600 and 700 goals.

Is that the one you had in mind?

 

[SettlementRichie10]

I don't think so, no. But he will get close. He would need to score at an almost perfect declining bell curve for aging production, all the while playing 82 games every year

One significant injury and his chances at passing the Great One go out the window.

 

[Confused Turnip]

Looking to some recent great goal scorers:

	Avg goals / season	Avg goals / season (age 31-35)	Avg goals / season (age 36-40)		Career			31-35	36-40
Brett Hull	48	39	33		0.58	82		0.48	0.41
Jaromir Jagr	36	36	24		0.44			0.44	0.29	(ages 39-43)
Marcel Dionne	44	44	27		0.54			0.53	0.33	(ages 36-37 only)
Phil Esposito	46	50	31		0.56			0.60	0.38	(ages 36-38 only)
Mike Gartner	40	40	28		0.49			0.49	0.34	(ages 36-38 only)
Mark Messier	33	34	26		0.4			0.41	0.31	(gpg ratio dropped ~50% upon move to Vancouver)
Steve Yzerman	38	28	20		0.46			0.35	0.24
Teemu Selanne	39	29	39		0.47			0.35	0.48
Brendan Shanahan	35	34	34		0.43			0.41	0.41
Dave Andreychuk	32	27	22		0.39			0.33	0.27
Jarome Iginla	33	36	24		0.4			0.44	0.30
Joe Sakic	37	38	26		0.45			0.46	0.32
Mark Recchi	29	26	23		0.35			0.32	0.28
Joe Nieuwendyk	37	33	26		0.45			0.40	0.32
Mike Modano	30	27	22		0.37			0.33	0.27
Patrick Marleau	27	30	24		0.33			0.36	0.29
Marian Hossa	33	33	23		0.4			0.40	0.28	(ages 36-38 only)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This list (as imperfect as it is) indicates a drop-off of ~23% in goal scoring for 36-40 years olds from ages 31-35. Meaning if Ovechkin's average is anywhere north of 40 goals for 31-35, then he should score ~31 goals on average from 36-40 based on this entirely imperfect sample.

If you assume he lands a little over 50 this season his average from 31-35 will have been around 47 goals/season. He'd also finish the season with ~710 goals. If the next 5 seasons he averages a 23% dropoff that'll be 36 goals/season or 180 goals. Right around 890. Because of course it would be.

 

[Mike8]

If you assume he lands a little over 50 this season his average from 31-35 will have been around 47 goals/season. He'd also finish the season with ~710 goals. If the next 5 seasons he averages a 23% dropoff that'll be 36 goals/season or 180 goals. Right around 890. Because of course it would be.

With a buffer, though. Because this is his 34-year old season. So he has one more season for the 31-35 age range. If he scored with a ~20% drop of his 31-34 average and scored 40 next season, then he's at 750, and need ~145 goals from his 36-40 year old seasons. And if he scored 30 goals per year, that'll do it.

So, two big assumptions:
1. Ovechkin plays until he's 39 or 40
2. Ovechkin remains healthy

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume Ovechkin stays healthy. The bigger issue is whether Ovechkin wants to keep playing in an increasingly diminished/PP role. Typically the players who continued on until ~40 years old were compilers at that point (Recchi, Gartner, Andreychuk, Iginla, even Jagr at that stage), or had totally reinvented their games and careers and were no longer really counted on for their offense. I don't see the latter happening, and all the compilers kept moving around to different teams.