Why is it taking so long to extend Chabot?

[GrantLemons]

Alfredsson was done. Blank cheque’s for old over-the-hill UFAs at $5-$7M make no sense.

It was Daniel f***ing Alfredsson. He was worth it to us, especially considering he had just played for $1 million the previous year.

Look at the massive shitstorm of bad PR that was created because of it. Signing him would have been worth it just to avoid that.

It makes the org look like complete shit, and conversely it would make us look infinitely better had we shown loyalty and paid him for all he had done for the franchise. Look at what San Jose is doing with Jumbo. Whatever he's getting paid, he's worth it to them just to have around. It was the same as us with Alfie, except Eugene Melnyk is a f***ing idiot.

 

[Ouroboros]

The Alfredsson debacle is pretty much ground-zero for the erosion of fan support in Ottawa. Long-term it has cost the franchise much more money than was saved by refusing to pay him a few million above market rate.

 

[BondraTime]

Offersheets are a thing now because of the "new" RFA deals that offer a shit ton of money, shit ton of signing bonus money, and medium length contract duration that leads straight to UFA. This wasn't a thing until this past year with the Matthews signing, now high level RFA's can ask for the 5 year, big amount deals.

Look at Meier's contract, a much lower profile RFA.

4 years x 6aav, with 9 million in signing bonuses, and more importantly, a 10 million dollar salary in the final year, which makes his qualifying offer after his contract is up 10 million, which leads straight to UFA.

That kind of contract is new, and Meier is in a completely different tier of RFA then guys like Aho, Marner, Chabot, Matthews, Point, etc.

Meier is making more in signing bonuses after his ELC then the entire 03'-05' 1st rounds combined, it's a new RFA contract tactic that has begun in the past 5 or so years, with Matthews contract starting the trend of some high profile guys asking (Matthews, Marner, Point) or being offersheeted (Aho, Point) contracts structured the way Matthews is, short term, big money, 90+% signing bonus.

All the above hinders the Sens, as they want none of those aspects in their deals (high aav, high signing bonus, 4-5 years length).

Chabot would make more in signing bonuses literally the second he signed an offersheet. than Melnyk has paid out in his total tenure with the Sens.

 

[NorthCoast]

There are tax treaties btw Can and US that authorize bonuses to be taxed at a lower rate when for example an american is being paid in Canada but still resides in the states. Tavares and Matthews both had articles come out after signing their deals describing how it created a tax savings. You can google them. I don't believe there is any savings for a Canadian playing and living in Canada though, which was why i questioned JD1 on it.

Yeah, I've read the Tavares article. And i've got about a 1/3 into the second link I posted which is ridiculously in-depth.

And now my head is hurting. Which is pretty much why tax equalization between markets is impossible. There will always be some advantages. But the NHL is stupidly enabling the accountants to take more advantage than necessary by allowing virtually uncontrolled abuse of the payment structure system.

Again, all the loopholes are allowing teams to funnel additional money to players outside the cap. Makes sense if you want to be competitive within the current system, but I am 100% sure the owners will have a different take come CBA time. As in, the players are now getting more than 50% because of these loopholes.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Offersheets are a thing now because of the "new" RFA deals that offer a **** ton of money, **** ton of signing bonus money, and medium length contract duration that leads straight to UFA. This wasn't a thing until this past year with the Matthews signing, now high level RFA's can ask for the 5 year, big amount deals.

It was "a thing" on July 5th, 2017, when Connor McDavid signed an eight-year, $100 million contract extension with the Edmonton Oilers.

Yes he'll be a bit older than Matthews when his contract expires, but this is when signing bonuses kicked into high gear, for RFAs

 

[DaveMatthew]

Alfredsson was done. Blank cheque’s for old over-the-hill UFAs at $5-$7M make no sense.

Alfredsson went to Detroit and put up 49 points in 68 games. He would have been our 4th highest scoring forward, and our replacement for him, Bobby Ryan, put up just 1 less point.

We also had 6-7 million in cap space that season, even after bringing in MacArthur and Ryan.

Signing Alfredsson do a multi-year deal would have been dumb. Most owners would have given him $6 million for one season to retire as the best player in franchise history, and keep their fanbase happy.

In hindsight, it also likely would have prevented us from acquiring Ryan and signing him to that anchor contract... but hindsight is 20/20.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

We let Daniel ****ing Alfredsson walk away from this team over money. That man should've been given a blank check to play one more year after his 1 million dollar season.

Absolutely ridiculous. They are still paying for that decision and as Ouroboros pointed out, the small savings was not worth the damage done.

Our most iconic player wants nothing to do with the franchise because of one guy. That's an embarrassment.

 

[BondraTime]

It was "a thing" on July 5th, 2017, when Connor McDavid signed an eight-year, $100 million contract extension with the Edmonton Oilers

Reread...how is 8 years medium contract length? It's a max term deal that buys 3 UFA years. Not a 5 year, medium term deal that was mentioned twice in the 2 sentences you quoted.

 

[DaveMatthew]

It was "a thing" on July 5th, 2017, when Connor McDavid signed an eight-year, $100 million contract extension with the Edmonton Oilers

Well, I think McDavid probably regrets that one now.

The trend in pro sports is star players asking for shorter term contracts, because the likelihood of a severe injury or significant drop off in play is getting lower and lower, especially between the ages of 23-30.

With the cap going up every year, players and agents don't want to be locked into a deal that's going to be under market for 50% of its length. They're willing to bet on themselves to maximize earnings.

Look at the NBA. Stars like Leonard and Lebron are passing up long term deals to sign for 1 or 2 seasons at a time. Why? It makes sure they capitalize on increasing revenues, and keeps them in control (aka. build a winner around me or I'll leave).

I see the NHL trending more in that direction. It won't be as extreme, but an 8-year deal for a 22 year old RFA is getting less and less attractive.

Young stars want to cash in as a UFA at 25, not 28.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Offersheets are a thing now


Chabot would make more in signing bonuses literally the second he signed an offersheet. than Melnyk has paid out in his total tenure with the Sens.

How many successful offer-sheets have we seen in the NHL so far? I doubt Chabot will be sheeted.

Last paragraph is a bit of a stretch.

NHL Offer Sheet Compensation Explained

https://thehockeywriters.com/future-of-the-nhl-2019/

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Reread...how is 8 years medium contract length? It's a max term deal that buys 3 UFA years. Not a 5 year, medium term deal that was mentioned twice in the 2 sentences you quoted.

McDavid will be only 28 years old when his current contract expires....... so it does not buy 3 UFA years, only 1 UFA year.

Pretty good comparable, if you ask me.

 

[DaveMatthew]

How many successful offer-sheets have we seen in the NHL so far? I doubt Chabot will be sheeted.

Last paragraph is a bit of a stretch.

NHL Offer Sheet Compensation Explained

https://thehockeywriters.com/future-of-the-nhl-2019/

I don't think an offer sheet is the biggest threat to Chabot, because you're right, they're very rare.

The biggest threat is the internal financial constraints that Melnyk has placed on the team.

Remember when he was asked about paying a coach $5 million a season? His response was, "do they walk on water"?

Even last year in the Karlsson "negotiations", he said the number he offered him was bigger than one he ever thought he'd pay a player. Well guess what, it's only going to get bigger.

There's a real chance that Eugene Melnyk is philosophically against, and incapable of paying, players high AAVs with large signing bonuses. So when Chabot asks for one, he might very well say, "Screw you, we'll trade you and get 3 cheaper guys."

This idea that Ottawa would be willing to match or give Chabot anything is misguided, and I don't know where it came from.

Other teams aren't a threat... but our own owner is. I don't think he cares about any sort of pressure from the fanbase or league to make him pay any player.

 

[DaveMatthew]

McDavid will be only 28 years old when his current contract expires....... so it does not buy 3 UFA years, only 1 UFA year.

Pretty good comparable, if you ask me.

McDavid entered the league at 18 and could have been a UFA at 25.

 

[BondraTime]

How many successful offer-sheets have we seen in the NHL so far? I doubt Chabot will be sheeted.

Last paragraph is a bit of a stretch.

NHL Offer Sheet Compensation Explained

https://thehockeywriters.com/future-of-the-nhl-2019/

We've seen 1 since these new medium term bonus laden contracts began 6 months ago, including another that wasn't signed and tons of discussion of teams looking at them.

What last paragraph? Melnyk has paid out 10 million in signing bonus money, as soon as Chabot signs an offersheet he'd immediately, upon Melnyk matching or declining to match, be awarded close to 12-13 million in signing bonus money.

I do not think a signed offersheet will be a realistic scenario. I think (hope) he will be signed prior. If he isn't signed before the draft, he will be traded due to the financial burden his potential (likely) offersheet would bring along with a terrible return of picks.

 

[BondraTime]

McDavid will be only 28 years old when his current contract expires....... so it does not buy 3 UFA years, only 1 UFA year.

Pretty good comparable, if you ask me.

McDavid would hit UFA at 25, so no, it buys 3 years.

No, not a good comparable. It's a max term contract. If it was 5 years in length, sure, it would be a great comparable.

Matthews (5 years off ELC) and McDavid's (8 years off ELC) contracts are not comparable whatsoever.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

McDavid entered the league at 18 and could have been a UFA at 25.

Did not know that, so thanks for that info.

 

[BK201]

Yes Chabot can sign an offer sheet ......... but it will be Ottawa's choice whether to match, of let him go for the compensation.

So it's up to the Sens, and yes, Chabot can force their hand, by signing an offer sheet.

I just see Chabot as too important to the organization to let go, for a number of reasons, and believe they'll either sign him, or match an offer sheet if it comes to that.

I'm not so sure he is going for an offer sheet. My point was more meant to mean he wants to play out the season and try to get more money based on his play. If he signs now and kills it it's leaving money on the table.

The offer sheet will just be a tool to get what he wants I think if sens offer less than desired.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Yes Chabot can sign an offer sheet ......... but it will be Ottawa's choice whether to match, of let him go for the compensation.

So it's up to the Sens, and yes, Chabot can force their hand, by signing an offer sheet.

I just see Chabot as too important to the organization to let go, for a number of reasons, and believe they'll either sign him, or match an offer sheet if it comes to that.

I'm not sure Melnyk sees any one player as "too important". He hasn't been forced to do anything by fan pressure to this point, so I don't know why he would next year.

I think he is fundamentally against paying a player a lump sum of money on July 1st in the form of a bonus, especially a large amount like 5-7 million.

Yes Stone was a different circumstance, but we could have re-signed him to a long-term deal when has was 26. Chabot, next summer, will be 23. It's not as big a difference as some make it out to be. It's not like Stone was 30+.

You also have to keep in mind that next summer, Dorion and Melnyk will have a new, shiny "star" on an ELC to market, if this season plays out the way we all think it will.

I could see the narrative changing to Lafreniere/Byfield/Raymond is the future as early as June, and we need to surround them with more pieces. Chabot's the "asset" that will get us those pieces.

Fans won't buy it, but fans haven't bought anything in 1.5 years. Yet, the organization keeps spewing the same nonsense.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

I'm not so sure he is going for an offer sheet. My point was more meant to mean he wants to play out the season and try to get more money based on his play. If he signs now and kills it it's leaving money on the table.

The offer sheet will just be a tool to get what he wants I think if sens offer less than desired.

Oh I agree.

There no "upside" for Chabot to sign anything until after the season, and even not until after July 1st.

He can only increase his bargaining power, by having another decent season under his belt.

He can't use an offer sheet "as a tool" unless he's offered one.

But if he wants to play in Ottawa, signing an offer sheet would not be the best way to move forward with the Senators.

Sure it would be awkward if he was offered, and signed on, and the Senators matched, which I believe they would .......... but they both would get past the awkwardness in a season or less.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

I'm not sure Melnyk sees any one player as "too important". He hasn't been forced to do anything by fan pressure to this point, so I don't know why he would next year.

I think he is fundamentally against paying a player a lump sum of money on July 1st in the form of a bonus, especially a large amount like 5-7 million.

Yes Stone was a different circumstance, but we could have re-signed him to a long-term deal when has was 26. Chabot, next summer, will be 23. It's not as big a difference as some make it out to be. It's not like Stone was 30+.

You also have to keep in mind that next summer, Dorion and Melnyk will have a new, shiny "star" on an ELC to market, if this season plays out the way we all think it will.

I could see the narrative changing to Lafreniere/Byfield/Raymond is the future as early as June, and we need to surround them with more pieces. Chabot's the "asset" that will get us those pieces.

Fans won't buy it, but fans haven't bought anything in 1.5 years. Yet, the organization keeps spewing the same nonsense.

Well I think that both PD and EM have to put their money where their mouths are, in respect to what they said about paying the young stars when their time comes.

If they let Chabot go, after signing an offer sheet, then the writing is one the wall, and the majority of fans that still support the team will move over to the minority who are not attending games.

 

[Micklebot]

Yeah, I've read the Tavares article. And i've got about a 1/3 into the second link I posted which is ridiculously in-depth.

And now my head is hurting. Which is pretty much why tax equalization between markets is impossible. There will always be some advantages. But the NHL is stupidly enabling the accountants to take more advantage than necessary by allowing virtually uncontrolled abuse of the payment structure system.

Again, all the loopholes are allowing teams to funnel additional money to players outside the cap. Makes sense if you want to be competitive within the current system, but I am 100% sure the owners will have a different take come CBA time. As in, the players are now getting more than 50% because of these loopholes.

Because there aren't numerous creative accounting tacticts that the franchises can and do take to reduce tax burdens and increase non-hrr revenues? I mean, i am sure the teams will cry foul but they aren't angels here either...

 

[DaveMatthew]

Well I think that both PD and EM have to put their money where their mouths are, in respect to what they said about paying the young stars when their time comes.

If they let Chabot go, after signing an offer sheet, then the writing is one the wall, and the majority of fans that still support the team will move over to the minority who are not attending games.

Sure, but I think we're already at that rock bottom, personally. The low-end for this market is ~11-13k per game in paid attendance, and I'm guessing we're already at that number if you takea way giveaways. There will always be people who go because it's an NHL team.

I don't see much of an incentive for Melnyk to change his ways. His reputation can't get worse, attendance is bottoming-out, and the team is the worst in the league.

If he hasn't bowed to the pressure with any of Karlsson, Stone or Duchene, I don't see it happening with Chabot.

Right now, we're building around Tkachuk and Chabot.
Next year, we'll be building around Lafreniere and Tkachuk.
The year after, it'll be around Brandt Clarke and Lafreniere.

Around and around we'll go.

 

[Micklebot]

Well I think that both PD and EM have to put their money where their mouths are, in respect to what they said about paying the young stars when their time comes.

If they let Chabot go, after signing an offer sheet, then the writing is one the wall, and the majority of fans that still support the team will move over to the minority who are not attending games.

Traded Zibanejad before his big money deal, took Hoffman and Ceci through arbitration process and lowballed Stone and Dzingel for their abitration asks?

 

[JD1]

From what I have read paying out in Bonus would have no Tax benefit.

The benefit is for lockout protection and for moving payment up even more than front-loading of the contract does, as you can get all your money for the year on July 1 for example and then you are earning interest on the total amount of money throughout the year as opposed getting it incrementally.

This is not chump change either. I ran the math and without factoring in bonus, ie just front-loading, Tavares will easily get about 2 mil more on his contract (based on 8% rate of return) because of how it's structured vs if it had no front-loading.) Bonusing will only increase that figure and if he beats the market with his investments (which most young multi-millionaires with very long-term investments strategies will), then it could easily end up being 3-5 mil.

And of course that 3-5 mil is 100% outside the cap. Nice to be a big market I guess.

Read the Forbes article on Tavares's contract. It's pretty clear the bonus structure is based on tax.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Well I think that both PD and EM have to put their money where their mouths are, in respect to what they said about paying the young stars when their time comes.

If they let Chabot go, after signing an offer sheet, then the writing is one the wall, and the majority of fans that still support the team will move over to the minority who are not attending games.

I doubt the GMs are going to maliciously throw sheets around like Montreal did. I doubt someone would risk 4 firsts on one player.

Although, comparing EK65 vs TS72 stats... the projections are pretty high IMO.

As said before... I am Delta-Oscar-November-Echo here if the young three don't get signed.