Why is it taking so long to extend Chabot?

Discussion in 'Ottawa Senators' started by little BiG, Jul 18, 2019.

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  1. BatherSeason

    BatherSeason Registered User

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    Why could they not? Was it Mark Stone's fault? Brent Wallace clearly thought that the org just didn't want to pay him what he was worth.
     
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2019
  2. NorthCoast

    NorthCoast Registered User

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    From what I have read paying out in Bonus would have no Tax benefit.

    The benefit is for lockout protection and for moving payment up even more than front-loading of the contract does, as you can get all your money for the year on July 1 for example and then you are earning interest on the total amount of money throughout the year as opposed getting it incrementally.

    This is not chump change either. I ran the math and without factoring in bonus, ie just front-loading, Tavares will easily get about 2 mil more on his contract (based on 8% rate of return) because of how it's structured vs if it had no front-loading.) Bonusing will only increase that figure and if he beats the market with his investments (which most young multi-millionaires with very long-term investments strategies will), then it could easily end up being 3-5 mil.

    And of course that 3-5 mil is 100% outside the cap. Nice to be a big market I guess.
     
  3. BatherSeason

    BatherSeason Registered User

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    Pierre Dorion has actually refused to talk about it publicly. At least this time he didn't lie and say that the league will fine him if he talks about it.
     
  4. NorthCoast

    NorthCoast Registered User

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    I hope your right. But I remember a lot of the same types of statements being made about EK after the ECF run.
     
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  5. Ice-Tray

    Ice-Tray Registered User

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    I’m not sure I’d want Stone at his current deal though. At some point you have to draw a line in the sand. It was either they agree on a one year deal, or the arbitrator comes up with a one year deal after the ‘divisive process’.

    It’s easy to assume that the Sens simply wouldn’t offer Stone a decent deal, in reality it turns out that he wanted some things that the Sens couldn’t do. I understand that they likely couldn’t match the bonus ask due to owner cheapness, or realistic lack of funds (or both). I’m am so not down with his full NMC. He apparently didn’t want, or have to settle for a 5 year NMC followed by a modified NTC, preferring a full term NMC which is 8 years for us.

    That contract would have been an albatross for us in no time. I’m glad we don’t have that on the books. I’m all for 8 year deals, but for guys that are locked up through their primes, or guys that are taking team friendly twillight or retirement deals.

    The problem is that at the moment the team is rebuilding, has financial issues, and basically sucks. The team has no leverage in negotiating with established players, even their own. They can’t offer more money than other teams, and they can’t offer a chance to win any time soon.

    It’s unfortunate, but we really don’t have much negotiating leverage for the Stones and EKs of the league, which is why we had to be able to beat massive UFA caliber deals they both signed in order to keep them. When a player wants to stay with their team you don’t generally have to offer team crippling bonus structure deals to keep them.

    Man, the new CBA can’t come soon enough. We’ll Likely see bonus structures be locked down, and in return we’ll see teams unable to take advantage of LTIR to stay well below the cap floor. The Sens alone would have to pay another 20 million to players. In my simplistic opinion it would be a win for players in return for a win for owners, and perhaps most important, it would be a win for Gary who would get two new changes that help keep the competitive balance across the league.
     
  6. 2CHAINZ

    2CHAINZ Registered User

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    You trade Stones rfa rights you in no way should ever give him a 1 year deal. If they did not want to sign him which clearly they did not they should've traded him and got maximum value.
     
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  7. Ice-Tray

    Ice-Tray Registered User

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    He alluded to the importance of signing TC and our young core. The importance goes beyond ‘signing assets’ it important to the fans. The breaking point for many.

    That’s all I was saying.
     
  8. Ice-Tray

    Ice-Tray Registered User

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    No doubt, it does take two to tango, and TC is coming of his ELC, while EK was going to be a UFA.

    Fundamentally, my point was that signing an offersheet designed to screw over the team is an aggressive move, and there has to be some form of break down in the relationship to get there.

    Versus other offersheets where the offering team is willing to pay up in compensation for a big deal, the Aho deal was an example of a team structuring the deal so to essentially steal the player from the other team by strong arming them financially.

    The player would be making a statement by signing that kind of deal, or responding to being strong armed, like Aho. I don’t see TC as being in that position in regards to his relationship with the team, so I don’t personally feel worried that he would sign that kind of offersheet, if one was offered.
     
  9. DaveMatthew

    DaveMatthew Registered User

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    Sure, that's a fair opinion.

    But there's no scenario in which Dorion and co didn't know what Stone wanted last summer, and they absolutely knew whether our budget/plan would be able to accommodate it. They should have been honest with themselves then, and traded Stone before the season started. They would have received a much, much better return.

    The most important thing in a rebuild is proactively managing your assets to sell high. And yes, that involves making hard decisions that fans might not like.

    Instead, Dorion traded all of his assets when their value was the lowest: Karlsson, Hoffman, Stone and Duchene. And for what? To make it seem like they were "trying" by dragging "negotiations" out until the last second, something every single person saw through?

    Complete mismanagement.

    Karlsson and Hoffman should have been traded in February 2018.
    Stone and Duchene should have been traded last summer.

    We'd be in significantly better shape if they were.
     
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2019
  10. Ice-Tray

    Ice-Tray Registered User

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    Now THAT would have been a solid option, though I think the team would have been flayed even worse had that been the choice.

    Also, given that the negotiations went down to the arbitration wire as they often do. We would have had to have had an AGM who was simultaneously exploring trade options through back channels.

    I think PD clearly wanted to sign him, but sometimes you just can’t make it work due to money, trade protection (or whatever else). Stone had a lot of leverage; taking a one year deal would make him a UFA, so even if he wanted to stay in Ottawa, he had full control, as all he had to do was take the arbitration deal and then negotiate as a UFA the following summer.

    If I’m Stone I insist on a one year deal, or I take the arbitration settlement. Either way I would be in complete control of my own destiny come summer time. Sometimes it has to be considered that the player may not have wanted to sign a long term deal, in which case there was nothing PD could do.

    Either way, we did t play out the same situation twice, and he wasn’t traded at the deadline. Realistically, we may not have gotten a better deal had he been traded before his arbitration date. We got a top prospect, which if we look at what the returns are for trades these days, is a huge return.

    Personally, if I was a player I’d take UFA without question, especially if I had all of the leverage to get there. Then I could negotiate with my current team, or everyone else, and end up like Duchene, with a massive deal in the situation I wanted to be in.

    In my opinion things will change when we start being a destination some players want to be in. I mean we are that now for some vets looking for contracts and don’t mind helping a rebuild, but for stars to consider us we need to be in the winning phase of this rebuild, the core needs to be secure, and the future needs to look hopeful for a possible championship.
     
  11. stempniaksen

    stempniaksen Registered User

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    And it begins...

    Absolutely not the case. Chabot maximizing his value doesn't need to be seen as some slap in the face to the organization when in reality all he is doing is making the deal with his own best interest at heart. I don't begrudge anyone going out and getting the best deal possible, especially someone in a career as short as pro sports.

    Complete disagree on this. I doubt we'll see eye to eye on this one, which is fine. The Sens have always strong armed their RFA's to varying degrees (which is their right) so I don't see why it would be any different when EM is arguably at his "poorest". Brayden Point plays on one of the very best teams in the league, with strong ownership in a market that is etremely favourable (weather, lack of media, tax situation), I don't think that's a particularly fair comparable to Chabot and I tend to think Chabot will think long and hard about all options presented to him.

    We didn't see any evidence that Stone wanted out, until it was too late. We also didn't see any evidence Duchene wanted out, until he was gone. You're parroting the exact same lines this year as you were last season about "the room being fixed, guy want to be here and lead the young group, ect". It's possible that's the case, but it's possible you don't have a read on what these guys are actually thinking given that most won't come out point blank and ask for move or voice their displeasure.

    There's lots of deals that should have (or "had to") get done in "crazy Sens time" starting with Mark Stone (star winger, leader, still young, natural Alfie replacement and future captain) and Matt Duchene (mostly based off the price to acquire him) that didn't end up getting done, in no small part to the teams financial restrictions. It's not that I think the team doesn't want to sign TC, but you can't convince me EM not being able to afford matching an offersheet is out of the realm of possibilities.
     
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  12. NorthCoast

    NorthCoast Registered User

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    Agreed. In this situation it would be a clear "I want out".

    Frustrating though because as long as one other team offers the predatory offersheet a player can claim they are just asking "market rate" since the market did offer that rate.

    Man I hope the new CBA cleans up this mess. I don't see how having teams trying to screw each other over like this because of market size is a good look for the league.
     
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  13. Ice-Tray

    Ice-Tray Registered User

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    Disagree that it was a complete mismanagement.

    First, Stone with an agreed extension with Vegas returned more than what we could have expected had we traded him at the last minute before his arbitration date.

    You have to consider that Stone was playing both sides to his advantage, as we all would. According to all sources Stone was actively negotiating staying, saying all of the right things, and seemingly leaving the door open to staying. If you refer to how the team must know how Stone felt, it would seem like Stone felt that if the right deal came along that he would stay, and that the two sides should keep negotiating to see if they could find it, much like JT did.

    You can’t really say that trading EK was when he was at his lowest, but then advocate for Stone to be traded at the very same point as his high point.

    In my opinion you need to look at the three guys as separate entities. EK was offered a deal, chose not to negotiate making it clear that he was going to head for UFA, as the captain of the team you need to trade him before the season starts if you want to avoid potentially having locker room issues again. Sure the deadline before would have been better in my opinion, but if you wanted to try and sign him, and make an official offer, that time frame wasn’t really an option.

    I think Stone was traded at the best time. The arbitration negotiation window would have given the team a good idea of how close they were to a long term deal. Instead of busting a quick nut before the hearing, they chose to look to the trade deadline months away. That gave PD months to continue negotiations, while also explore trade returns. I think he get a better deal at the deadline. Branstrom is the best single return piece that we have seen a star return in a long time. We all wish it was more, but we returned a league-wide top prospect, who happily plays D.

    Hoffman deal was a straight up quick attempt to appease EK, and the player return was needed to show a ‘compete now’ face. EK left anyways, but hey, it was worth a shot. In hindsight a second and third would have been better for us now.

    Dis gene said all of the right things all year, had a monster year, and talked himself all the way to UFA as many around the hockey world thought he would. Shockingly he got his playoff run, and then signed with the team that almost all rumours had pointed to all season.

    I’m not sure why people find it so hard to believe that we were trying to sign these guys, but EK didn’t want to negotiate, Stone had a foot out the door, and it looks like Duchene had both. I mean, looking at two years of bottom finish, why in the world would any of these guys opt to stay when they were all looking at UFA? PD should have just signed them?!? I mean, I love the Sens, but I would have walked as well; more money, and play where I want to trumps rebuild using up the last years of my prime.

    Oddly, the way things appear to have played out, supported by both management, and the players involved, makes the most sense. We didn’t get less than market value for any of the top guys, we got exactly what the market would give for UFA’s, with more for Stone since he worked out a deal. Duchene wouldn’t because he wanted to be UFA, and EK was heading for UFA, coming off an injury and a subpar year. His was the worst deal value-wise, but wholeheartedly agree that we couldn’t start the season with him on the roster as captain.

    Anyways, just my opinion, good chats.
     
  14. Ice-Tray

    Ice-Tray Registered User

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    Sure they can, and at the end of the day it’s a business. But if you sing a deal designed to be something your current team can’t match, you’re making a statement. I mean if your team is trying to leverage you into a super cheap deal like Carolina was doing to Aho, sure, but if the team is offering comparable money, more term, and some, but less bonus money, it eventually comes down to if you want to leverage the team, or force a move, or not.

    Almost every player in the later situation opts not to, especially when the offersheet is designed such that the offering team isn’t even paying appropriate compensation for the player.

    I agree, it’s a mess! Thankfully it’s only really come to a head a year before the expiry.
     
  15. Ice-Tray

    Ice-Tray Registered User

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    Thanks for taking the time to share your differing opinions with me.
     
  16. The Lewler

    The Lewler GOAT BUDGET AINEC

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    This is exactly what posters here are proposing as a possibility with the Sens and Chabot.

    Anyone who claims definitively that's what happening currently should have proof demanded of them, but given the recent gong shows with Sens contract negotiations, it's plausible discussion forum fodder.
     
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  17. NorthCoast

    NorthCoast Registered User

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    I don't think you can definitively say that it was best to trade him at the TDL. You may be right, but your also using hindsight knowing Stone didn't drop off or get injured. Could have gone the other way.

    I just don't see what was going to change in the negotiation between the summer and the TDL other than Stone's price going up...but whatever, what's done is done and the return was fine.
     
  18. HSF

    HSF Registered User

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    you guys really don't learn eh?

    Chabot is doing what every other RFA is doing rn. Waiting for the last min to get the best deal. Why would Chabot sign before MCavoy unless we really overpay? Why not wait a year and maximize your contract
     
  19. DaveMatthew

    DaveMatthew Registered User

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    These are all excuses, and poor ones.

    It is Pierre Dorion's job to maximize the value of his assets.

    When Erik Karlsson said, in February 2018, that he was going to get his worth,"no matter where that was", that was a clear indicator of where he stood. And I could only assume that Dorion and Melnyk had an agreement about the max they'd be willing to spend, both from an AAV and bonus standpoint. If they hadn't had that conversation, well, that's another miss.

    At that point, there should have been a clear ask from the Senators. Are you staying or testing the market? If Karlsson showed an "unwilligness to negotiate" or didn't respond, that was your answer. At that point, he should have been traded. Trying to convince him otherwise was foolhardy.

    If the Hoffman trade was to "appease" EK, again, that was a terrible decision. Dorion could have simply gone to Karlsson and asked, "Will you re-sign if I guarantee you that Hoffman will not be here in training camp?" If Karlsson said no, or did not respond, Dorion should not have rushed into the Hoffman trade. He should have got as much as he possibly could have, even if it meant waiting and trading Karlsson first.

    Same goes for Stone and Duchene.

    Stone taking that 1 year deal was a clear sign. If he was not willing to buy in that summer, he should have been traded as early as possible. A player with term is far more valuable than a potential deadline rental.

    Basically what you're saying is that Dorion is letting the players dictate the moves he makes. That's a horrible, horrible strategy.

    He could have set firm deadlines for negotiations, and cut bait when they didn't commit. The onus is on him to uncover what a player really wants, and make the best decision for the organization, as soon as possible.

    Hoping that a player changes his mind at the last minute is just awful planning.
     
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  20. Ice-Tray

    Ice-Tray Registered User

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    Sure thing, but the way Carolina conducted themselves is I think the key component here.

    As long as PD conducts himself appropriately, we should be fine. It was pretty underhanded the way Carolina treated Aho.

    Definitely a proof is in the pudding situation. Get a deal done and then we can move on feeling a bit better. We’re just likely going to have to wait as these types of deals don’t seem to happen this early.
     
  21. Ice-Tray

    Ice-Tray Registered User

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    Ok then, like I said, good chats.
     
  22. HSF

    HSF Registered User

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    Stone was completely mismanaged

    you literally could only sign him to a 1 year deal to 'buy more time' LOL

    Sorry but if you have all YEAR to negotiate a contract then the player only is willing to sign a 1 year deal and you still think he is staying is such poor management.

    Terrible terrible management on the Stone scenerio
     
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  23. Ice-Tray

    Ice-Tray Registered User

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    Of course, it was more that there was enough time to negotiate AND explore trades. Leading up to the arbitration hearing there wasn’t exactly a lot of time to do both.

    Also, Stone having organized an extension increased his value in the trade to include Branstrom. I’m not sure there would have been the same opportunity or pressure on Vegas to get a deal done, before the season starts.

    Only the Sens has the arbitration hearing looming, at the TDL all teams are facing a time crunch.

    Anyhoo, like you said it’s all hindsight!
     
  24. GrantLemons

    GrantLemons Church of FYOUS

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    IMO you're just making too many assumptions about Chabot's connection/relationship to the team. "Assuming" he will do things in a team friendly manner is just foolish. The market is what the market is, and that's big signing bonus laden contracts that bring RFA's to UFA.

    Chabot and his agent will seek market value, and assuming a financially challenged team like the Sens won't try to save every penny they can on a Chabot deal also makes no sense to me (a la Aho with Carolina). What in the world would make you think the Sens won't try to save money on this contract, when virtually every single transaction they've completed since the Duchene trade has been about saving money?

    I get you're optimistic, but there's a little too much blind faith happening from your stance for me. You simply cannot say Chabot will turn down an offersheet like Point did like they are direct comparisons. Point is playing for a world class franchise that's going to compete for cups for the duration of any contract he signs, of course he doesn't want to go anywhere. Chabot has to play for Eugene Melnyk and his historic cap floor circumvention exercise. Apples to oranges.

    I'm not suggesting he won't sign, but these assumptions that he's going to act like this good old boy and give us preferential treatment is nutty. He's going to want to be paid, and be paid according to market. If the Sens don't give he the proverbial blank cheque, with lots of SB money, then yes, I would fully expect him to sign an offersheet. I sure as **** would sign it, wouldn't you?
     
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  25. Ice-Tray

    Ice-Tray Registered User

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    Except Stone has to sign in the dotted line.

    Look at it this way, if Stone wanted to become a UFA, there was no way the Sens could stop him. The Sens can’t make him sign a long term deal, they had two options, 1) go to arbitration and deal with all of the negativity that goes along with it; the outcome is a one year deal. 2) offer him a one year deal without the negativity.

    If you were responsible which on would you choose?

    If you were Stone, why would you negotiate a long term deal when you are guaranteed a one year deal no matter what, that takes you to free agency?

    Lost of folks seem to assume that players are just sitting there waiting for the opportunity to sign long term deals with us. In this case it makes far more Sens for Mark Stone to let this unfold as they did.

    As for the timing, there is no real reason to assume that he would somehow have garnered more of a return if he was traded last year. Using hindsight, his solid season likely increased his value by the time the TDL rolled around.

    I personally don’t see the big deal. There was no reason to rush a Stone trade, nothing to be gained really, especially if they wanted to have a chance at signing Duchene as well. They were much better off to extend the negotiation period as long as they could, while making it clear to player and league that they would both be traded by the deadline if no deal was signed.

    Business as usual really, and Stone’s return was solid based on the reality of NHL trades.
     
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