Why is it taking so long to extend Chabot?

Discussion in 'Ottawa Senators' started by little BiG, Jul 18, 2019.

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  1. Gesus

    Gesus Melnyk & Dorion ruined everything

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    This sounds like a roundabout way of saying that Chabot should take a discount from what is potentially available to him on the RFA market, simply because of the Senators' financial situation.

    If the Senators can't match an offer sheet that another team is willing and able to pay him, it's still just an Ottawa Senators problem and Chabot is merely leveraging his options, similar to how the team has done for their own good in past years in order to keep RFA's term short and salary low.

    Chabot should get paid in Ottawa what he would get anywhere else based on what's being offered (UFA, RFA offer sheet, shouldn't make a difference) and that includes bonuses and trade protection. If he takes anything less, he's doing the organization a favor, and favors are now the rare exception in pro sports over the old days of home town discounts.

    My unsolicited opinion is that this one is really going to be simple, because the leverage is there for Chabot to not even have to consider any kind of bridging or discount. The organization either bucks up and he's offered what he could likely get on an offer sheet in all aspects and likely signs, or he's dealt in advance of the offer sheet date knowing the reality. There is no other plausible scenario like expecting a discount or bridge deal imo.
     
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  2. Ice-Tray

    Ice-Tray Registered User

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    If the overall dollars are similar enough then yeah, I’d probably start considering other considerations like the team, loyalty, etc.... if they were way off and I felt like i was being disrespected then yeah. If I wanted to play in a different city, sure that’s a good way as well.

    I’m not playing up too much or making any grand assumptions. The proof is in the fact that there have been exactly 4 offersheets signed in the last 10 years. I wonder why that is? And while Aho signed one this year, his particular situation was a special case of leverage, and it should be considered that Point turned down the very same team’s offer.

    We’ll see what happens, we all want the same outcome.
     
  3. Micklebot

    Micklebot Moderator

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    I think the idea that the best return would be at the TD is unfounded. Strictly from a cost benefit perspective, there is far more value in acquiring a player with term so a team should logically be willing to give up more for a player a year before they hit UFA rather than 2 months.

    I mean, it seems obvious, if it were the case that TDL returns are better you would see teams able to acquire a guy in the offseason and flip the at the deadline for a profit... It just doesn't make any logical sense that on average returns would improve by waiting till the deadline.

    Edit: imo teams should wait till the deadline if they a) thought they couldn re-sign the player but were mistaken or b) are in the playoff hunt but circumstances result in them falling short by the TDL.

    In our situation, presumably we thought we fell into category a) but imo that's a misreading of the situation by Dorion
     
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2019
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  4. GrantLemons

    GrantLemons Church of FYOUS

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    This is spot on. I really don't understand how you could surmise anything else from this whole situation.

    How it all shook down just screams a team with no plan. It was terribly mismanaged and terribly communicated. I would have loved to have known the return for EK at the 2018 TDL had they not insisted on stapling Bobby's contract to EK. The fact that some teams were even entertaining offers with Bobby attached speaks to the value EK had at that point.

    Did they honestly think EK would sign after his agent had told him multiple times to pack his ****? If they seriously thought that then that's ****ing pathetic, and indefensible.
     
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  5. DaveMatthew

    DaveMatthew Registered User

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    Option 3 was to trade him.

    Despite what you say, a Mark Stone with a full year at ~7 million dollars left on his deal (or in RFA status) has significantly more value than Mark Stone at the deadline as a pending UFA, even if he was willing to sign an extension with a couple of teams. For a few reasons:

    • Teams in the offseason have much more roster flexibility than they do mid-season, so they're able to make bigger transactions.
    • At the deadline, only 3-5 teams are looking to make a big splash, those who think they have a legitimate shot at the Stanley Cup. In the offseason, way more teams would be in the mix.

    So because of the nature of the deadline, Ottawa was probably was dealing with 2-3 teams who were really interested. In the offseason, it would have been (most likely) 10-12 teams.

    The second scenario allows you to create a much bigger bidding war.
     
  6. Tnuoc Alucard

    Tnuoc Alucard There's more than 1 side to any story or issue.

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  7. Ice-Tray

    Ice-Tray Registered User

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    Players make considerations all the time if they want to stay in the situation they are in, and will turn down more money and better deals to stay if needs be. Do you think TB will be offering the same deal as MTL’s offersheet? Of course not.

    The reality is that a regular contract is not a discount. The Sens can offer an 8 year deal in return for short term massive bonus incentives to leave the team.

    If another team offers him a sheet, he gets to decide if he wants to sign it, and then the team decides if they want to match. It is what it is.

    The problem I see is that people in here seem to think that Ahos offersheet is somehow now a regular contract. It isn’t. It was an enormous deal designed to be so over the top that it screwed over the other team. You won’t see teams offer those deals to their players as regular deals, nor should we expect it.

    The reality is that top UFAs can command this kind of thing because they are open to the full league, at team’s own rfa’s arent.

    I don’t personally understand how you can see that offersheets, UFA, and RFA all have different values in terms of the players ability leverage a bigger deal. There is no set pay scale, salary negotiations are all about comparisons and leverage, followed by personal and team considerations.

    Again, there is no such this a single going rate dollar and contract structure. In here we take the outlying overpayment, present its the norm, and then proceed to fear it. Even to the point of completely ignoring the fundamental differences between impending UFAs vs guys coming off ELCs.

    Anyways, thanks for the discussion folks, I’m out for the day!
     
  8. GrantLemons

    GrantLemons Church of FYOUS

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    You may also be dealing with teams that are looking to make a big splash, but struck out on UFA's, and hence would be more desperate and willing to sweeten the pot to get their guy. Much like the Sens were when they acquired Bobby Ryan.
     
  9. Ice-Tray

    Ice-Tray Registered User

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    Right, you wanted to have the team actively shop him throughout that season and going into the offseason, eventhough they were simultaneously trying to see if they could keep EK, actively trying to woo Duchene into staying, and also trying to keep Stone in the fold.

    This is all like leaves in a breeze. What’s a bad move is suddenly a good live when convenient, then bad again. It’s like the kids can’t opposite situation as EKs.

    Anyways, when people are determined to believe that each trade could have netted better returns, based on zero inside evidence, or really any supporting comparable around the league, there is really not much room for discussion.
     
  10. DaveMatthew

    DaveMatthew Registered User

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    Exactly, and you could prioritize offers with teams that have a higher 1st round pick. Getting a first rounder at the deadline is often a crapshoot, who knows where it'll be. But at the draft? You know exactly where it is.

    What would Edmonton have offered for Stone at the draft last summer? Could you have gotten the 10th overall + more assets? Probably.
     
  11. GrantLemons

    GrantLemons Church of FYOUS

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    But again, that's not an advantage for a guy like Chabot. He's trending to be so good that 5 years to UFA, and he can sign an even bigger deal when he's smack dab in his prime, instead of 30, and bordering on exiting it.

    Why didn't Matthews sign an 8 year deal?
     
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  12. GrantLemons

    GrantLemons Church of FYOUS

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    Especially if we took back a contract from them as well. We probably could have basically had our pick of anything in their system.
     
  13. DaveMatthew

    DaveMatthew Registered User

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    "Trying" means nothing. Karlsson and Stone made it crystal clear what they were thinking.

    Karlsson, by saying what he did in the media in February, and in his own words "not talking to those people in months" after he was traded, was pretty up front the whole time. If Dorion didn't get the message? That's his own fault.

    Same with Stone. Trying to sign him last offseason was fine. But when he didn't agree to a long-term deal before arbitration? He absolutely should have been shopped.

    If Pierre Dorion didn't see the writing on the wall with these guys, he's even worse at his job that we thought.
     
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  14. Gesus

    Gesus Melnyk & Dorion ruined everything

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    I think in the past you would have been right, but after this summer, it's obvious that star RFA's have gained all the leverage while teams have lost the leverage they seemed to always have over them previously.

    The existence of offer sheets and the increased market impact is more of the issue than the actual offer sheets being signed. Just the threat of them is being used to define market value on RFA's around the league. I expect Chabot to be similar to the other RFA's this summer where they expect massive deals comparable to what would be available on offer sheets and is a big reason so many remain unsigned. Maybe they aren't going the offer sheet route because they want to stay if contract terms are equal, but they're holding out knowing they have that option and their team can either pay up comparably or they won't sign.
     
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  15. Variable26

    Variable26 Global Matador

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    No one knows. Everyone may assume what they like. I get it. But it is only an assumption based on the last few fish that got away.

    I am hoping that the big three get signed. Going to 'fence-sit' for now, and not get all hyped up for nothing.
     
  16. Crosside

    Crosside Registered User

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    I think Stone sign a one year deal in regard of a ownership change. Dorion probably think that too, It s why he don t trade Karlsson in the summer and I guess Duchene would be stay if he see we want to win now. Now we move on and maybe it s a good thing.
     
  17. GrantLemons

    GrantLemons Church of FYOUS

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    To be fair, it's not much of a stretch to assume that Eugene wants as little signing bonuses as possible (especially facing a potential lockout).

    That's one thing we can likely all agree on.
     
  18. NorthCoast

    NorthCoast Registered User

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    First, that's a great resource that I hadn't seen before. Thanks you!

    Second, my comment is still correct because I was answering specifically to the question of players that have to pay Canadian taxes...where bonus payments are considered the same as other income and taxed the same. I believe your resource confirms that.

    Third, even in the US, Federally it doesn't make much of a difference because above 1 mil the tax rate on Bonuses jumps from 22% to 37%...which may still be a slight benefit over income tax rates and there may be some additional accounting tricks you can pull in some states, but my point is really more to dispel the common thought (not saying this is your opinion) that bonus money gets taxed at 15% vs income tax rates.

    Tax Rates on Bonuses and Supplemental Wages

    https://ca.rbcwealthmanagement.com/...nals.pdf/0920cb5a-2adf-4666-a451-3659710eece8


    Regardless, we're arguing from the same side here. There is obviously a financial benefit to doing it, and that financial benefit requires more up-front cash from the team, which makes it an advantage for the bigger markets...whatever the size of the advantage is.
     
  19. Gesus

    Gesus Melnyk & Dorion ruined everything

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    Well, lets not pretend it's that simple. There's been so many red flags money wise for many years now and the hysteria is not exclusively from the big UFA exodus.
     
  20. 2CHAINZ

    2CHAINZ Registered User

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    We let Daniel ****ing Alfredsson walk away from this team over money. That man should've been given a blank check to play one more year after his 1 million dollar season.
     
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  21. harrisb

    harrisb Registered User

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    Lol, a little late for that, Stone, Duchene and Karlsson are already gone (that was the big 3, we HOPE Tkachuk, White and Chabot sniff their success). Outside of this years picks we had every other player that was already on the team too.
     
  22. Cosmix

    Cosmix Registered User

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    Dorion is a yes-man to Melnyk. He disassembles as required to keep his job. He could probably do better under a different owner, but I have no confidence that is sufficiently competent to be a GM in the NHL. He will be gone after Melnyk is gone, and quite possibly before Melnyk is gone.
     
  23. Cosmix

    Cosmix Registered User

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    Alfredsson was done. Blank cheque’s for old over-the-hill UFAs at $5-$7M make no sense.
     
  24. Micklebot

    Micklebot Moderator

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    There are tax treaties btw Can and US that authorize bonuses to be taxed at a lower rate when for example an american is being paid in Canada but still resides in the states. Tavares and Matthews both had articles come out after signing their deals describing how it created a tax savings. You can google them. I don't believe there is any savings for a Canadian playing and living in Canada though, which was why i questioned JD1 on it.
     
  25. Sens

    Sens Registered User

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    Seeing how the team is stingy as ****... 20 million below the cap floor... would have an extra couple million back then really have been a blow to this franchise

    In all honesty this franchise over the last decade has shown no loyalty... even fan favourite grinders like Chris Kelly have jumped ship
     
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