Why is it taking so long to extend Chabot?

Discussion in 'Ottawa Senators' started by little BiG, Jul 18, 2019.

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  1. BK201

    BK201 Registered User

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    I think Chabot wants to wait. I don't think this is up to sens an offer sheet is real for him but idk SENS can walk without Docker and Thomson being top tier.
     
  2. 2CHAINZ

    2CHAINZ Registered User

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    I can't wait to see Colorado offer sheet him 8.5 - 9 mill bonuses. Then they complete the Ottawa gut job.

    I can see it now. Pierre telling us its his proudest day to get a 1st 2nd and 3rd to kick start this rebuild
     
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  3. BondraTime

    BondraTime Registered User

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    There is going to be a new CBA, and bonuses will be a big part of that.

    Unfortunately, the offersheets will come on July 1st, 3 months before the CBA expires.

    We know what to expect, we saw Aho’s “light” offersheet of 5 x 8.45 (already would be by far the highest aav contract in Sens history) with 39 million of the 43 million total I n signing bonuses. The Canadiens made this small offersheet to stay in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd category hoping the bonus amounts would deter the Canes, which it didn’t. I envision them making a large offer sheet for the Quebec born RFA playing the position they are in dire need of a star.

    If they, or anyone, want, they could add another 10 million total, and another ~8 million in signing bonuses to Aho’s 5 year contract and they would only have to give up an extra 1st.

    5 x 10.5aav, ~48 million in signing bonuses on a 53 million dollar contract. That would be a possible offersheet from Montreal.

    I see no way Melnyk can physically do that, he does not have the cash flow for that kind of amount, and the picks given up are a pittance of what he’s worth, nobody would care about losing those assets for Chabot.

    I’m not saying it’s going to come to that, I hope and feel a deal will be worked out prior to the season ending.

    If he’s not signed by the draft, he will be traded, as I’m sure they already know they cannot fiscally afford these bonus laden 5 term deals. Sad, but true.

    I’m sure Melnyk knows that would be awful optics. That hasn’t stopped any of the awful and cheap decisions that were terrible optically the past 3 years, I see no reason this would be any different.
     
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2019
  4. Micklebot

    Micklebot Moderator

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    Honestly i only knew about the columbus one but the nyi showed up when i looked for the link. Timing is a bit funny...
     
  5. JD1

    JD1 Registered User

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    This franchise is on pretty thin ice right now....I wouldn't be surprised that Bettman quietly let's it be known that Chabot is not to be offer sheeted. The franchise is already unstable and an offer sheet likely sends it over the edge
     
  6. Larionov

    Larionov Registered User

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    Oh boy, that would have to be REALLY quiet, because if that ever came to light the NHL would be facing a massive lawsuit from the NHLPA on collusion/anti-competitive practices. The NHLPA already suspects that this happens, so evidence that the Commissioner himself was involved in discouraging offer sheets would be a nuclear bomb...
     
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  7. stempniaksen

    stempniaksen Registered User

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    That's Bettman asking for heaps or trouble. I kind of doubt he goes out on a limb to "protect" Melnyk over his own backside.

    Honestly, it may ultimately end of helping his case if "small market team X" loses their star player to a bonus laden offersheet. Gives him a leg to stand on if the owners want SB's taken out of the new CBA. (I realize this is me wearing my tinfoil hat, but for the other side of the argument, but it's an interesting thought).
     
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  8. Tnuoc Alucard

    Tnuoc Alucard There's more than 1 side to any story or issue.

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    So Colorado will offer less than $8,454,871 in AAV?

    I think Ottawa would be able to match that offer, bonuses included.









    there are a lot of posters who seem to know what EMs cash flow situation is, and then make claims that he will be unable to pay these high bonuses, or sign lucrative long term contracts.

    I just don't see how anyone could possibly know EMs personal financial situation that well.

    Yes, he's been running a tight ship for the past few years, and there may be, and could be a number of reasons for that, but I suspect it's more speculation rather than insider knowledge.

    If he was truly in financial dire straits, I'm sure there would be some tangible and credible evidence of it, and I don't really see anything like that.

    Melnyk was ranked 79th with a net worth of $1.21 billion on its 2017 list of Canada’s 100 wealthiest people, by Canadian Business magazine.

    They pegged him at #92 with a net worth of $1.15 billion in 2018, down 5%.
     
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2019
  9. 2CHAINZ

    2CHAINZ Registered User

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    Yep he wouldn't sign Karlsson and Stone but hey we are going to sign Chabot to a huge bonus contract. If Melnyk is a billionaire I am a trillionaire space fighter sent here from another parallel universe through a vortex that can only be found in the core of Neptune.
     
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  10. JD1

    JD1 Registered User

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    I agree it's a good other side of the argument

    The bonus laden offers really save the player on taxes and they go a long way to negating the impact of local taxation.

    But they are clearly a problem for the majority of franchises. I think the current situation is an Ottawa problem more so that a melnyk problem

    Something I've been thinking about....have the top 10 or so income generators contribute, on a sliding scale based on their income, a pool of money that is to be used by the other 20 clubs to pay bonus money. Throw something in there that the rich teams make a low level of interest and the poor teams must pay the bonus money in monthly installments starting in September when the money starts rolling and whatever bonus money was paid has to be re-paid in 8 installments thru April.

    The other thing that will be very helpful to teams like Ottawa is the reputed massive increase in the US TV deal. It will raise the cap but any form of revenue with an equal distribution is very helpful to our situation.
     
  11. DaveMatthew

    DaveMatthew Registered User

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    I don't think an offer sheet for Chabot is that much of a threat.

    I think Ottawa's internal finances are the threat. There is a good chance that Melnyk is simply unable to pay out the bonuses required to keep a player of Chabot's calibre. Even if he and Dorion wanted to, I don't think they're able to do it.

    Because of that, they won't be forced into giving Chabot up because of an offer sheet. I think they'll choose to trade him because they can't pay him. They'll choose the option of cheaper players to fill out the roster.
     
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  12. Acidrain66

    Acidrain66 Registered User

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    Rinse and repeat...
     
  13. JD1

    JD1 Registered User

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    I think there is a significant difference between signing long term UFA deals and long term RFA deals....bonus money or not

    Go back and look at every ufa deal since 2010 that was 5 plus years and ask yourself whether the team got good value out of the deal.

    Big money big term rfa deals are relatively new...but in signing them you are typically signing a star calibre player for his prime years.

    There are far less risks in the RFA type deals. Regardless of your personal level of distrust in Melnyk, there is pretty much no way you can twist that reality. I am all in on long term deals for Chabot and Tkachuk. I wasn't in on long term deals for either Stone or Karlsson....meaning long term ufa deals like they just received
     
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  14. 2CHAINZ

    2CHAINZ Registered User

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    Mark Stone was an RFA signed to a 1 year moronic contract to make him a UFA.Karlsson just like Alfredsson was underpaid for majority of his contract here then when they wanted to be paid Melnyk the billionaire did not want to pay them.

    You tell me regardless of my distrust in Melnyk and you tell me to look back 5 years. You look back on Melnyks past 5 years and tell me how you trust him, Dorion or this organization ?
     
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  15. Tnuoc Alucard

    Tnuoc Alucard There's more than 1 side to any story or issue.

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    Signing a 23 year Chabot, who is coming out of his ELC, and just entering his prime years, is not comparable to signing EK65 or Stone, who were older, and had the option of becoming an UFA.
     
  16. 2CHAINZ

    2CHAINZ Registered User

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    Stone was an RFA then dinky Dorion gave him a 1 year contract to make him a UFA. Again Melnyk was cool paying Karlsson when he was underpaid by like at least 3 million. When time came to pay he did not.
     
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  17. Tnuoc Alucard

    Tnuoc Alucard There's more than 1 side to any story or issue.

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    Yes Chabot can sign an offer sheet ......... but it will be Ottawa's choice whether to match, of let him go for the compensation.

    So it's up to the Sens, and yes, Chabot can force their hand, by signing an offer sheet.

    I just see Chabot as too important to the organization to let go, for a number of reasons, and believe they'll either sign him, or match an offer sheet if it comes to that.
     
  18. JD1

    JD1 Registered User

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    I don't trust Melnyk per se. I simply asked you to assess long term ufa deals and whether the team got value out of those deals.

    Karlsson and Turris both signed long term deals at a young age and they both delivered on them. It is a financial security versus risk scenario for the young player. Revenues rose dramatically and salaries along with it and the players were underpaid in relative terms. That's not the team's fault. You now see a new trend... ELC to 5 year RFA to UFA.

    Stone is a different case for a star player. Late round draft pick. Took a few years to get established. It would have been very challenging to determine his worth on a long term deal when he was say 24 years old.

    Look around the league. There are tons of bridge deals. Sometimes teams win those types of deals and sometimes they lose. You'll go crazy if you apply hindsight to every deal and try to state what the best path forward is.

    And if you really want to blame someone....how about blaming the player's agent. Players get advice. Subban took a bridge deal...couldn't arrive at aong term deal...Karlsson got Cooked, Subban won a Norris, signed a long term deal as a Norris winner for way more money than Karlsson yet he was the inferior player. What advice was Karlsson's agent giving him? I'm presuming he was saying "take the deal kid" They both had agents. Subban's agent somehow parlayed a lesser client into more money. Is that the agent's success? Bergevin's failure? Ottawa's success? Karlsson's choice to opt for security?
     
  19. JD1

    JD1 Registered User

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    Sorry man....that's a very simplistic way of looking at it...
     
  20. Tnuoc Alucard

    Tnuoc Alucard There's more than 1 side to any story or issue.

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    It was going to take the two sides to agree to a long term deal (a year ago), and when they could not, they decided to kick the can down the road, and agreed to the one year term.

    You can't blame Stone for wanting to become an UFA after this past season, as it gave him more leverage.'

    But he's still a 27 year old player, with a few injuries under his belt, and those people who continuously compare him to a 23 year old (next year) Chabot, are not comparing apples to apples, no matter how they try to spin it.

    Signing young RFAs is a fairly new phenomenon, and is much less risky than signing older pending UFAs.
     
  21. harrisb

    harrisb Registered User

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    I have a feeling that Melnyk wants almost zero signing bonuses going in to a potential lockout year. Chabot and White both want lockout protection and Melnyk will not offer it like the other 30 teams in the league. Fairly simple
     
  22. Micklebot

    Micklebot Moderator

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    Do bonuses really provide tax relief for players that aren’t Americans playing in Canada? I thought that was a specific scenario where it was beneficial…

    Having said that, in theory, the hardship of huge bonuses should theoretically already be mitigated by the leagues credit facility. ~2% interest rates on the bonus structure of a few premium contracts per team shouldn’t be the burden that puts teams over the edge; borrowing 25 mil at ~2% to cover bonuses and paying it back through the season as the revenue trickles in would only cost about 400k. Even the leaf’s absurd signing bonus commitment which could get to 70 mil if/when Marner gets signed would only cost them a 1ittle over 1 mil to finance for 9 months with regular payments, not chump change, but this isn't where the real inequity lies imo. The problem comes when teams have maxed out the league facility and have to borrow at higher rates. I don’t see that as an issue with bonuses placing an undue burden of vulnerable markets, but rather markets that have already over extended themselves being exposed a little quicker than they otherwise would have been.
     
  23. NorthCoast

    NorthCoast Registered User

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    Whether it's 23 or 27, I personally don't understand why you don't sign them as soon as you can. Maybe it's 5 for a UFA and 8 for an RFA, but I don't understand the "prove it to me" type deal for a star player. For a mid-level player, maybe, but there is too much value at risk IMO with star players to roll the dice like that.

    If the team is not 100% confident in a star player then they should be traded immediately while their value is highest (based on teams belief it will decline). If the team is 100% confident that the player will continue to improve, then there value and contract demands are only going to go up over time. So why wait?

    I don't think it's hindsight to say that nothing was going to happen between the summer and TDL that decreased Stones demands with possibly the exception of signing Duchene. But I don't think that is swinging the deal by millions.

    The only thing that would change Stones demands is if he had a crap season. And in that case why are we betting on our core players to become worse, just so we can sign them? Is that really the way we want to team-build?

    Of course it could be the case that Stone simply would not agree to anything and wanted to become a UFA regardless. But then again, why not trade him in the summer if that was the case.

    Basically, I don't understand how a 1 year bridge leads to either better value on the trade or a better deal with the player, unless we are betting against our own stars.
     
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  24. Gesus

    Gesus Melnyk & Dorion ruined everything

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    You're right, nobody knows and have no choice but to wait and see what happens. We just haven't seen anything in a very long time that could give us confidence he has or is willing to part with that kind of cash to one player. The bonuses to Chabot will exceed all the bonuses he's paid out in his entire time as owner by a large margin. Every move for about 5 or 6 years now has had a heavy financial component, sometimes giving up picks for small bonus payments or taking on a salary as small as Hammond's for example. We've seen no significant financial commitment given since Bobby Ryan.

    The concern should also include whether Melnyk is "willing" even if able. We've seen how he views qualified coaches that ask to be paid accordingly, "Do they walk on water?" No, he doesn't seem to see a correlation between pay scale and performance and has made that the MO of the organization. How do we know he doesn't think Chabot's ask is just not worth it and should be moved instead?
     
  25. Ice-Tray

    Ice-Tray Registered User

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    If TC doesn’t want to negotiate a massive 8 year deal with the team, choosing instead to sign an offer sheet with a shorter term deal ending right at UFA with a team crippling bonus structure designed to crush our finances or prevent us from competing, then **** him.

    You do that and you’re telling the team, this team, to screw off. Especially if you’re not giving the team any UFA years, and signing a deal that the team may not even be able to match, a deal designed to not be able to be matched. This is a leverage move by a player that is willing, or even wants, to force a move from the team.

    As mentioned a million times, but seemingly ignored, Aho and his agent signed that deal because they were fighting back against the Hurricanes trying to use negotiation leverage to force Aho into a much lower deal than his play had earned him. The plan backfired and forced the player to play hardball as well. He was lucky that MTL sent over a sheet otherwise he’d be looking at signing whatever Carolina offered, or sitting out.

    The Sens won’t treat TC in this manner, and can’t anyways. It stands to reason that TC won’t want or need to react like Aho had to. If a sheet is sent it will most likely be turned down like Point.

    Personally I don’t see any evidence that TC wants out, while there are articles talking about how he and BT are looking forward to leading this young team. My guess is he signs a massive deal that sees him appropriately paid, with bonus money involved (much like the rumoured Stone offer), but not to a team crippling amount. I don’t think he wants to force a move. Trade protection won’t really matter because he’s looking to lock up his prime years, rather than the end of his prime and decline years like Stone and EK.

    A deal will get done because it should in normal times, and because it absolutely has to in crazy Sens time. Consumer confidence is at an all time low, with TC signing being the very public breaking point for the franchise. It has been made very public, PD has discussed it in interviews. It will get done because it absolutely HAS to, and TCs agent knows that as well. They’ll negotiate an awesome massive deal, they won’t try and force the team to lose him by offersheet. You only do that when you want to **** over your team, and I don’t think TC is there.
     
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