Speculation: Who Should Detroit Pick at 4th?

[jkutswings]

Draper does say that they’re targeting BPA and position won’t really be a factor in their decision.

Which is either true or just the cliche that all teams use to avoid losing any leverage in potential trade offers.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

I think it's just the fancy stats part of his analysis that they don't like. But numbers aside, they're good videos with a lot of detail.

i like his videos but I take his opinion with a grain of salt as all his compiles stats are based off 8 game sample sizes.

 

[Kingpin794]

Anyone have specific video to point me to that shows off Perfetti's high level IQ?

I've watched a bit of highlights and it hasn't really popped out to me. Not saying it isn't there, just that I haven't seen it yet. And I love a player with high IQ so I'd love to fall in love with someone at 4

A couple things I could pick out from a Shift by shift game (at least in the first period, not going to do the whole game):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzcJog2BIIA

5:10- knows exactly where everyone is on ice. Times entry just right then has a nice feed to Coskey for a good look. He has three guys looking at him as he makes the pass. He realizes Coskey is going to be left open.

5:48-knows he’s blocked off from driving the net. Doesn’t panic. Is aware that he has someone right behind to feed to since more eyes are on him. Another good chance created.

6:34-Knows the defender will reach and uses his momentum against him. Protects puck. Keeps reading across blue line and down the boards. Eventually drives the net to try and force a rebound or feed depending on what the Otters do. They collapse. Almost able to feed out front to a forward breaking in on everyone with their backs turned.

 

[Killerjas]

I think it's just the fancy stats part of his analysis that they don't like. But numbers aside, they're good videos with a lot of detail.

Honestly that makes no sense to me. But hey, everyone has an opinion I guess.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I know people here don't like Scouching for whatever reason, but I think this is a good video when it comes to summing up Perfetti's game, a big part of which is his hockey sense:

Scouching does a very good job of dissecting the play of certain players. And for those who knock him by saying he only watches a small sample size, so do NHL scouts.

I also share his concerns about Perfetti not becoming a premier NHLer because his skating and defensive play. Very talented, very smart offensively, but I think he also has very high bust potential in comparison to the other top 10 picks while not having more elite potential than the others ranked 4-10.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

We're under 2 weeks now. Time is just crawling.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

whoever we draft, on draft day i’m going back and editing my posts to only say good things about them

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

whoever we draft, on draft day i’m going back and editing my posts to only say good things about them

Me in mid-October: "I always knew we'd take *checks notes* ... Roni Hirvonen ... at #4OA. Trust the Yzerplan."

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Me in mid-October: "I always knew we'd take *checks notes* ... Roni Hirvonen ... at #4OA. Trust the Yzerplan."

God i can’t believe we got the steal of the draft. ____ Is so talented! And handsome too!

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Scouching does a very good job of dissecting the play of certain players. And for those who knock him by saying he only watches a small sample size, so do NHL scouts.

I also share his concerns about Perfetti not becoming a premier NHLer because his skating and defensive play. Very talented, very smart offensively, but I think he also has very high bust potential in comparison to the other top 10 picks while not having more elite potential than the others ranked 4-10.

It’s okay that he only watches a small sample size. I don’t like that he determines the quality of the player based on statistics That were accumulated from a tiny sample size.

I still enjoy watching his videos.

 

[newfy]

I'd say 1 .Raymond 2.Drysdale, 3. Rossi. For me 3 of them ahead of Perfetti.
Things are usually charge and if Perfetti improve his skating, then he is right with those guys.
So far my best choice at 4 is Raymond

Its fine if you rank them ahead of him for the future but currently in junior, Perfetti takes over games more than any of them in the leagues theyre in

 

[Kingpin794]

Wonder if we could do a wink-wink deal with Ottawa to take Bobby Ryan’s contract in exchange for them not taking whoever of Byfield/Stutzle is left at 3? They have 2 top 5 picks. Getting say Drysdale and Raymond along with getting rid of Ryan would have to be appealing to them, yes? Especially if it’s Stutzle that’s left.

example: Pick 32 for Bobby Ryan and to NOT take Byfield/Stutzle?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Wonder if we could do a wink-wink deal with Ottawa to take Bobby Ryan’s contract in exchange for them not taking whoever of Byfield/Stutzle is left at 3? They have 2 top 5 picks. Getting say Drysdale and Raymond along with getting rid of Ryan would have to be appealing to them, yes? Especially if it’s Stutzle that’s left.

example: Pick 32 for Bobby Ryan and to NOT take Byfield/Stutzle?

Why wouldn't they just deal 3OA for 4OA then? There is no pick between us or them. They would just swap 3 and 4 with Ryan's contract involved in this case.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Scouching does a very good job of dissecting the play of certain players. And for those who knock him by saying he only watches a small sample size, so do NHL scouts.

I also share his concerns about Perfetti not becoming a premier NHLer because his skating and defensive play. Very talented, very smart offensively, but I think he also has very high bust potential in comparison to the other top 10 picks while not having more elite potential than the others ranked 4-10.

He does have more elite potential than others ranked 4-10 in my eyes. If he didn't, he wouldn't be an option at #4.

Skating is a mild concern. I do believe, based on the eye test, as well as hearing poor things about the Spirit's strength and conditioning group, that Perfetti has a real chance to develop his skating in a notable fashion. Whether or not he is taken by the Wings, I am eager to see if he has picked up a step or two in the next season.

There are plenty of premier NHLers that do not have exemplary defensive play. Connor McDavid is one who comes to mind of below desired defensive play, but the impact that he has offensively completely overcomes the warts. In short, living in the offensive zone and scoring is a passable way to be "effective" defensively.

 

[Larkin2AA]

He does have more elite potential than others ranked 4-10 in my eyes. If he didn't, he wouldn't be an option at #4.

Skating is a mild concern. I do believe, based on the eye test, as well as hearing poor things about the Spirit's strength and conditioning group, that Perfetti has a real chance to develop his skating in a notable fashion. Whether or not he is taken by the Wings, I am eager to see if he has picked up a step or two in the next season.

There are plenty of premier NHLers that do not have exemplary defensive play. Connor McDavid is one who comes to mind of below desired defensive play, but the impact that he has offensively completely overcomes the warts. In short, living in the offensive zone and scoring is a passable way to be "effective" defensively.

Draft Perfetti and give him a summer at Barwis here in Detroit. I think doing so will provide improvement in the power of his stride and overall balance. He is definitely going to need time with a skating coach to help iron out his stride, but in about a year or so, I think this kid will be extremely talented.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Draft Perfetti and give him a summer at Barwis here in Detroit. I think doing so will provide improvement in the power of his stride and overall balance. He is definitely going to need time with a skating coach to help iron out his stride, but in about a year or so, I think this kid will be extremely talented.

Plus, I mean, people make such a big deal about how much room Byfield has to grow. But Perfetti is built like a very active 14 year old right now. When he fills out more, the raw leg power should come with it.

 

[Kingpin794]

Why wouldn't they just deal 3OA for 4OA then? There is no pick between us or them. They would just swap 3 and 4 with Ryan's contract involved in this case.

You're totally right. Idk why I added the extra step there. Need another cup of coffee today.

 

[Dotter]

Two things we know about Steve Yzerman's drafting:

1. He isn't afraid to go off the board... by a lot.
2. He isn't afraid of taking the superstar goalie of the future.

If these other guys (Perfetti, Raymond, Rossi, Drysdale) doesn't blow Yzerman away... then I can for sure, without a doubt, see him taking the blue-chip goalie.

This solves two problems; maximizing his 4th overall pick by selecting the best* or 2nd best player in the entire 2020 draft, and plugs a HUGE need for the next 15+ years.

If Askorov is the answer to all our goaltending problems, then just take him and be done with it. For every Henrik Lundqvist story, there's 90 Petr Mrazek stories.

Honestly, drafting wingers with the 4th overall pick doesn't really excite me too much.

 

[SirloinUB]

Here is what I don’t get. On this forum I’ve seen Askarov called “the second best player in the draft” or “the only blue chip prospect available at 4” or “the best goalie prospect since price” and many other variations of these sentiments.


If these things are true how/why would he be available at 4? If these things are true why is he not ranked higher by any of the scouting services?

seems to be a bit of a disconnect between what some of you are saying Askarov is and where other legit outlets have him ranked.

if he is what some of you claim him to be of course we should draft him. But at the same times, why/how would he be available if he is all of these wonderful things?

 

[Hen Kolland]

Here is what I don’t get. On this forum I’ve seen Askarov called “the second best player in the draft” or “the only blue chip prospect available at 4” or “the best goalie prospect since price” and many other variations of these sentiments.


If these things are true how/why would he be available at 4? If these things are true why is he not ranked higher by any of the scouting services?

seems to be a bit of a disconnect between what some of you are saying Askarov is and where other legit outlets have him ranked.

if he is what some of you claim him to be of course we should draft him. But at the same times, why/how would he be available if he is all of these wonderful things?

I think that the best goalies are fantastic, but are often only as good as their team can allow them to be if that makes sense. For a team like the Red Wings, Askarov might make sense, because he needs some seasoning, and when he's ready, it should align with the other talent has stepped into their own...like Hronek (more established), Seider, Lindstrom, Johansson, McIsaac, etc. You hope that those players, plus some free agents or trades, puts Askarov in a position to be a successful, good goalie, not an unsuccessful, good goalie.

For other teams, at different stages of their competitive window probably have different feelings. If I'm Toronto, I might be comfortable with Askarov if I anticipate signing Pietrangelo and using other means to sure up my defense. I have my core, they are young, they are under contract, and if I can plug in Askarov in a few years, I feel good. If I am Pittsburgh or Chicago and I'm looking for as much help as soon as possible (see: Chicago selecting Dach), I probably don't have Askarov high.

So for a lot of teams, they might love Askarov, and still determine that it's not the time and place to go after him. Other teams will be scared by the volatility of goalie development. There are plenty of factors at play.

 

[lilidk]

Here is what I don’t get. On this forum I’ve seen Askarov called “the second best player in the draft” or “the only blue chip prospect available at 4” or “the best goalie prospect since price” and many other variations of these sentiments.


If these things are true how/why would he be available at 4? If these things are true why is he not ranked higher by any of the scouting services?

seems to be a bit of a disconnect between what some of you are saying Askarov is and where other legit outlets have him ranked.

if he is what some of you claim him to be of course we should draft him. But at the same times, why/how would he be available if he is all of these wonderful things?

He could be the best in this draft, but he is goalkeeper, it's very risky to get goaltender this high. It's much safer to get forward. But man , Askarov is capable to steal games. He took win from all star USA team , while Knite was in the net. He was player of the week in KHL.
To pick Raymond will be much safer choice
I'd take goaltender in 2 and 7 rounds this draft

 

[raymond23]

Here is what I don’t get. On this forum I’ve seen Askarov called “the second best player in the draft” or “the only blue chip prospect available at 4” or “the best goalie prospect since price” and many other variations of these sentiments.


If these things are true how/why would he be available at 4? If these things are true why is he not ranked higher by any of the scouting services?

seems to be a bit of a disconnect between what some of you are saying Askarov is and where other legit outlets have him ranked.

if he is what some of you claim him to be of course we should draft him. But at the same times, why/how would he be available if he is all of these wonderful things?

I’m not quite sure why his ranking isn’t as high unanimously. If I had to guess, it has to do with goaltender volatility.

I am not a goalie expert by any means but Askarov’s tools look borderline generational to me. Now there’s more that goes into being an elite goaltender than just your physical tools - positioning, poise and consistency come to mind. But IF he hits his potential, I think you’re legitimately looking at a HOF-Caliber goaltender.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

I think GMs followed by scouts followed by scouting services are just more reluctant to stick their neck out on a goalie come draft time.

It's a lot easier to turn a "bust" 8th OA into a 3rd or 4th line player and still get some use out of him then a 8th OA goalie into a #3 starter and getting any use out of him.


If a skater busts as an elite top 6 guy you can still find some use for him, the same for s goalie isnt the case.

However, the words used to describe Askarov sorta show guys sticking their necks out a little, even if just cautiously, and should make you pause and think hmm, maybe we better draft this guy

 

[Dotter]

Here is what I don’t get. On this forum I’ve seen Askarov called “the second best player in the draft” or “the only blue chip prospect available at 4” or “the best goalie prospect since price” and many other variations of these sentiments.


If these things are true how/why would he be available at 4? If these things are true why is he not ranked higher by any of the scouting services?

seems to be a bit of a disconnect between what some of you are saying Askarov is and where other legit outlets have him ranked.

if he is what some of you claim him to be of course we should draft him. But at the same times, why/how would he be available if he is all of these wonderful things?

Joe-Blow with a blog/ Black Book for $29.95/ Athletic locked content for $1.95 < NHL scouts with real eye for talent.

We are TOLD to think where a player SHOULD be drafted doesn't make it so. Once draft day starts, all bets are off.

Yzerman is going up to that podium with 1000000x more knowledge than 1,000,000 of us who read paid content for a 1000 year.

To me it comes down to winger vs. goalie. Wingers don't sound too enticing to me. And with the plethora of dmen in the system, do we need to use a #4 on another?

If we are drafting BPA, then I think Askorov needs to be top conversation.

 

[Avery Rule]

"With the 4th pick in the 2020 draft, the Detroit Redwings select, from Adler Mannheim of the DEL, Tim Stützle"