Speculation: Who Should Detroit Pick at 4th?

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Winger98

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Feb 27, 2002
22,753
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The old thread reached 1000 posts, so here is the new one. I put the results from the poll below. I figure we'll put up a new poll when we get closer to the draft.
Raymond98 votes27.1%
Drysdale82 votes22.7%
Perfetti66 votes18.3%
Rossi60 votes16.6%
Askarov40 votes11.1%
Sanderson8 votes2.2%
Holtz5 votes1.4%
Lundell2 votes.6%
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

TheMothman

Registered User
Jan 18, 2012
19
3
Taylor, Michigan
I'm honestly in a spot where I would be happy with any of Raymond, Perfetti, Rossi, Drysdale, Askarov, or Sanderson. I can make a case for all of them; and it's harder than ever this year to justify much separation with any of them. Based on my gut feeling I am leaning towards Raymond and Perfetti. There's also part of me that feels like if we can't get one of the top three prospects then we should swing for the fences and get potentially the best goalie prospect of the decade. Typically I would be wholeheartedly against drafting a goalie in the first round; but some of the write-ups about him make me feel like it could be worth it. Or let's just all hope that one of the teams in front of us decide to surprise everyone and go off the board... please?
 

Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
22,753
4,569
Cleveland
I'm honestly in a spot where I would be happy with any of Raymond, Perfetti, Rossi, Drysdale, Askarov, or Sanderson. I can make a case for all of them; and it's harder than ever this year to justify much separation with any of them. Based on my gut feeling I am leaning towards Raymond and Perfetti. There's also part of me that feels like if we can't get one of the top three prospects then we should swing for the fences and get potentially the best goalie prospect of the decade. Typically I would be wholeheartedly against drafting a goalie in the first round; but some of the write-ups about him make me feel like it could be worth it. Or let's just all hope that one of the teams in front of us decide to surprise everyone and go off the board... please?

That's my hope.
 

MBH

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Assuming the big 3 are gone:

1. Sanderson.
Minimum 2nd pairing. Potential top-pairing, all-star/Norris type. We've got a 25-minute a night LD for 15 years.
2. Askarov.
Could be a special goalie. But I'm worried a bit about bust potential.
3. Perfetti.
If the wings believe he can center a line, I'm willing to go along with it. He might be the most skilled player in the draft. As he physically matures, could be a major steal - but there's high bust/disappointment potential here too.

I won't draft a winger or Right D.
There's nobody in this draft at Wing/RightD available at 4 who's so great I need to take them over the guys above.

I do think there's about a 40 percent chance that one of Byfield/Stutzle fall to us.
I take Byfield over Sanderson.
I'm 50/50 on Sanderson/Stutzle.
 

Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
22,753
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Cleveland
Assuming the big 3 are gone:

1. Sanderson.
Minimum 2nd pairing. Potential top-pairing, all-star/Norris type.
2. Askarov.
Could be a special goalie. But I'm worried a bit about bust potential.
3. Perfetti.

If the wings believe he can center a line, I'm willing to go along with it. He might be the most skilled player in the draft. As he physically matures, could be a major steal - but there's high bust/disappointment potential here too.

I won't draft a winger or Right D.
There's nobody in this draft at Wing/RightD available at 4 who's so great I need to take them over the guys above.

I do think there's about a 40 percent chance that one of Byfield/Stutzle fall to us.
I take Byfield over Sanderson.
I'm 50/50 on Sanderson/Stutzle.

If Askarov is really our guy, I wonder if NJ would be interested in dealing 7 & 17 to move up to 4th. Or 10th and 17th.
 
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MBH

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If Askarov is really our guy, I wonder if NJ would be interested in dealing 7 & 17 to move up to 4th. Or 10th and 17th.

I think he's the one guy I'd feel safe with in trade-down scenarios.
Sanderson is going to go top 5.
But I'm not sure I'd go as low as 10th. You could really find yourself screwed. 7+17 for 4+51 or whatever I'd do.
 
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OgeeOgelthorpe

Baldina
Feb 29, 2020
16,999
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Assuming the big 3 are gone:

1. Sanderson.
Minimum 2nd pairing. Potential top-pairing, all-star/Norris type.
2. Askarov.
Could be a special goalie. But I'm worried a bit about bust potential.
3. Perfetti.
If the wings believe he can center a line, I'm willing to go along with it. He might be the most skilled player in the draft. As he physically matures, could be a major steal - but there's high bust/disappointment potential here too.

I won't draft a winger or Right D.
There's nobody in this draft at Wing/RightD available at 4 who's so great I need to take them over the guys above.

I do think there's about a 40 percent chance that one of Byfield/Stutzle fall to us.
I take Byfield over Sanderson.
I'm 50/50 on Sanderson/Stutzle.

In that scenario where one of Stutzle/Byfield falls to us, I would say it's at least 95% going to be Stutzle. LA made their intentions known that they want a forward, and it will likely be Byfield unless they see more deficiencies in his game than his stats indicate. LA wants someone to be the next Anze Kopitar and Turcotte looks like he was a poor choice at 5 last year. Drafting Byfield fixes that.

Ottawa may surprise and pick Rossi at 3rd overall because they've seen quite a bit of him this year. Someone on the Ottawa board here stated that management and the fans love the guy, considering he played his junior years in Ottawa. I don't think they'll reach for Drysdale/Sanderson at 3rd overall with there being a very high likelihood of both Drysdale and Sanderson being available at 5. Or maybe they reach and get Drysdale at 3, then Sanderson at 5 in hopes that they set their D up for the next 10+ years. (Or until they both demand to get traded away from Melnyk)
 

Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
22,753
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I think he's the one guy I'd feel safe with in trade-down scenarios.
Sanderson is going to go top 5.
But I'm not sure I'd go as low as 10th. You could really find yourself screwed. 7+17 for 4+51 or whatever I'd do.

If we could get 7&17, I'd really hope to walk away with Askarov and Lundell. I think people are sleeping on Lundell a bit, and he could fall as people don't see upside there but I see a guy who could very likely slide in behind Larkin and be a very effective 1-2 punch for us. They wouldn't be flashy, but I think they'd be an ugly, effective duo that other teams will hate.
 
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ArmChairGM89

Registered User
Dec 10, 2019
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In that scenario where one of Stutzle/Byfield falls to us, I would say it's at least 95% going to be Stutzle. LA made their intentions known that they want a forward, and it will likely be Byfield unless they see more deficiencies in his game than his stats indicate. LA wants someone to be the next Anze Kopitar and Turcotte looks like he was a poor choice at 5 last year. Drafting Byfield fixes that.

Ottawa may surprise and pick Rossi at 3rd overall because they've seen quite a bit of him this year. Someone on the Ottawa board here stated that management and the fans love the guy, considering he played his junior years in Ottawa. I don't think they'll reach for Drysdale/Sanderson at 3rd overall with there being a very high likelihood of both Drysdale and Sanderson being available at 5. Or maybe they reach and get Drysdale at 3, then Sanderson at 5 in hopes that they set their D up for the next 10+ years. (Or until they both demand to get traded away from Melnyk)

I watched a podcast with Ottawa GM saying his board is tiered

1
——-
2
3
——-
4
to
15ish
——-

with this in mind, I can’t imagine it’s not byfield and stutzle at 2 and 3.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,198
14,681
I watched a podcast with Ottawa GM saying his board is tiered

1
——-
2
3
——-
4
to
15ish
——-

with this in mind, I can’t imagine it’s not byfield and stutzle at 2 and 3.

Who knows though... remember last year when everyone on here said Turcotte was a lock to go at #3?
 

newfy

Registered User
Jul 28, 2010
14,718
8,241
Such a silly mentality to have. Especially in a draft with some great wingers.

Its a mentality that gets you Dylan Strome instead of Mitch Marner. I'm taking Marner all day and then doing everything I can to find him a center. Not to mention centers like to play with great wingers so it makes your odds better in FA
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,198
14,681
Its a mentality that gets you Dylan Strome instead of Mitch Marner. I'm taking Marner all day and then doing everything I can to find him a center. Not to mention centers like to play with great wingers so it makes your odds better in FA

Zacha over Rantanen.... Juolevi over Tkachuk... I’m all for drafting C/D, ideally that is the way to build, unfortunately the forwards after Byfield/Stutzle are all probably wingers IMO.

I still like their upside better than any of the C/D we could draft at 4 by a good amount.

I get it, it sucks we got the 4th pick, but let’s not double down and do something dumb.
 
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newfy

Registered User
Jul 28, 2010
14,718
8,241
Zacha over Rantanen.... Juolevi over Tkachuk... I’m all for drafting C/D, ideally that is the way to build, unfortunately the forwards after Byfield/Stutzle are all probably wingers IMO.

I still like their upside better than any of the C/D we could draft at 4 by a good amount.

I get it, it sucks we got the 4th pick, but let’s not double down and do something dumb.

Exactly.

I forgot about Juolevi over Tkachuk. Way higher upside wingers (a couple of which also could play center), or someone like Sanderson? I know where I'm going with that pick
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,198
14,681
Exactly.

I forgot about Juolevi over Tkachuk. Way higher upside wingers (a couple of which also could play center), or someone like Sanderson? I know where I'm going with that pick

Perfetti is starting to overwhelmingly make the most sense to me. So I’m sure it’ll be someone else... because that’s 2020 for ya lol
 

Ed Ned and Leddy

Brokering the Bally Sports + Corncob TV Merger
Apr 1, 2019
3,611
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Detroit to DC
Assuming the big 3 are gone:

1. Sanderson.
Minimum 2nd pairing. Potential top-pairing, all-star/Norris type. We've got a 25-minute a night LD for 15 years.

I generally like Sanderson, wouldn't hate the pick even at #4, but this is unreasonably ambitious imo.

The last five Norris winners:

'19: Giordano- 17G, 57A, 74pts
'18: Hedman- 17G, 46A, 63pts
'17: Burns- 29G, 47A, 76pts
'16: Doughty- 14G, 37A, 51pts
'15: Karlsson- 21G, 45A, 66pts

50 points is kind of a baseline for Norris contention. Realistically 60-70 points is a good benchmark, so you're looking at a point average of around .75.

Sanderson put up 7G, 22A, 29pts in 44 games, for a .62 point average. For comparison, last year Cam York almost doubled that with a 1.03 point average (admittedly, on a way better team). The year prior, Bode Wilde also beat that with a .67 point average. Neither of those guys realistically project as Norris-caliber players.

If you don't buy the points argument you can look at the tools, but I don't see anything in the toolbox that indicates Allstar/Norris level offense. He's a great skater, sure, but you can't really skate your way to 60-70 points. Shot is okay, nothing to write home about. Decent vision in the O-zone, but has a lot of work to show he can QB an NHL powerplay. Stickhandling is pretty poor frankly, and I think that will limit his effectiveness at moving the puck through the neutral zone in spite of his skating ability.

I guess I can't sit here and say that Jake Sanderson will never ever win the Norris, but pretty much every Allstar/Norris level defenseman I can think of had significantly better offensive tools as a prospect than Jake Sanderson does.
 
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MBH

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I generally like Sanderson, wouldn't hate the pick even at #4, but this is unreasonably ambitious imo.

The last five Norris winners:

'19: Giordano- 17G, 57A, 74pts
'18: Hedman- 17G, 46A, 63pts
'17: Burns- 29G, 47A, 76pts
'16: Doughty- 14G, 37A, 51pts
'15: Karlsson- 21G, 45A, 66pts

50 points is kind of a baseline for Norris contention. Realistically 60-70 points is a good benchmark, so you're looking at a point average of around .75.

Sanderson put up 7G, 22A, 29pts in 44 games, for a .62 point average. For comparison, last year Cam York almost doubled that with a 1.03 point average (admittedly, on a way better team). The year prior, Bode Wilde also beat that with a .67 point average. Neither of those guys realistically project as Norris-caliber players.

If you don't buy the points argument you can look at the tools, but I don't see anything in the toolbox that indicates Allstar/Norris level offense. He's a great skater, sure, but you can't really skate your way to 60-70 points. Shot is okay, nothing to write home about. Decent vision in the O-zone, but has a lot of work to show he can QB an NHL powerplay. Stickhandling is pretty poor frankly, and I think that will limit his effectiveness at moving the puck through the neutral zone in spite of his skating ability.

I guess I can't sit here and say that Jake Sanderson will never ever win the Norris, but pretty much every Allstar/Norris level defenseman I can think of had significantly better offensive tools as a prospect than Jake Sanderson does.

There's a reason why Sanderson rose so much in the rankings and is being talked about at 3rd overall.
You don't see it, that's fine.
But I can easily see him producing like Scott Niedermayer did.
 

OgeeOgelthorpe

Baldina
Feb 29, 2020
16,999
17,978
I watched a podcast with Ottawa GM saying his board is tiered

1
——-
2
3
——-
4
to
15ish
——-

with this in mind, I can’t imagine it’s not byfield and stutzle at 2 and 3.

He (Ottawa's GM) also mentioned it post draft lottery. He didn't say who he saw in T2, and also Ottawa sometimes makes boneheaded decisions. I think there's a slim chance they don't pick Stutzle if he's available at #3, but I also don't think they would pass up Byfield if he's available at 3.
 

ArmChairGM89

Registered User
Dec 10, 2019
1,552
1,034
He (Ottawa's GM) also mentioned it post draft lottery. He didn't say who he saw in T2, and also Ottawa sometimes makes boneheaded decisions. I think there's a slim chance they don't pick Stutzle if he's available at #3, but I also don't think they would pass up Byfield if he's available at 3.
I think it’s the tiers being the same that guarantees it to me. What are the odds they have the same 1-2/3-field tiers but with a different player at 3?

If he said that 3-4 was a tier or 1-2 then 3-5 or something maybe I’d be less convinced.
 

Gniwder

Registered User
Oct 12, 2009
14,121
7,484
Bellingham, WA
Assuming the big 3 are gone:

1. Sanderson.
Minimum 2nd pairing. Potential top-pairing, all-star/Norris type. We've got a 25-minute a night LD for 15 years.
2. Askarov.
Could be a special goalie. But I'm worried a bit about bust potential.
3. Perfetti.
If the wings believe he can center a line, I'm willing to go along with it. He might be the most skilled player in the draft. As he physically matures, could be a major steal - but there's high bust/disappointment potential here too.

I won't draft a winger or Right D.
There's nobody in this draft at Wing/RightD available at 4 who's so great I need to take them over the guys above.

I do think there's about a 40 percent chance that one of Byfield/Stutzle fall to us.
I take Byfield over Sanderson.
I'm 50/50 on Sanderson/Stutzle.
I can see Stevie building defense first considering there's no surefire LHD prospect in the system. Can't imagine he's got a lot of confidence in Cholo if we don't.

Not a sexy pick, but I'd be OK with Sanderson. Sanderson /Seider pairing could eat up 25 min even if neither winds up being Norris caliber.

D-men take longer to develop, they don't really peak until about 27 whereas forwards peak much earlier. If Stevie goes that route, I could see the current core of forwards getting traded eventually.
 
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NickH8

Registered User
Jul 3, 2015
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I can see Stevie building defense first considering there's no surefire LHD prospect in the system. Can't imagine he's got a lot of confidence in Cholo if we don't.

Not a sexy pick, but I'd be OK with Sanderson. Sanderson /Seider pairing could eat up 25 min even if neither winds up being Norris caliber.

D-men take longer to develop, they don't really peak until about 27 whereas forwards peak much earlier. If Stevie goes that route, I could see the current core of forwards getting traded eventually.
I think I'd prefer Drysdale over Sanderson. He just has more upside in my eyes. But I agree that we could very well see Stevie solidify our blueline for years to come. Nabbing Drysdale or Sanderson, whoever you prefer, would allow us to slot guys like Hronek and Cholo down a slot, and put less pressure on McIsaac and Johansson. I've always agreed with the philosophy that you should try and figure out your defense early in a rebuild since they take longer to be NHL players, that way they can enter their prime at a similar time as your forwards. And then there's the fact that our forwards will simply have an easier time with Drysdale and Seider moving the puck up the ice, and we have a pretty attainable blueprint to a successful team.
 
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