Assuming the big 3 are gone:
1. Sanderson.
Minimum 2nd pairing. Potential top-pairing, all-star/Norris type. We've got a 25-minute a night LD for 15 years.
I generally like Sanderson, wouldn't hate the pick even at #4, but this is unreasonably ambitious imo.
The last five Norris winners:
'19: Giordano- 17G, 57A, 74pts
'18: Hedman- 17G, 46A, 63pts
'17: Burns- 29G, 47A, 76pts
'16: Doughty- 14G, 37A, 51pts
'15: Karlsson- 21G, 45A, 66pts
50 points is kind of a baseline for Norris contention. Realistically 60-70 points is a good benchmark, so you're looking at a point average of around .75.
Sanderson put up 7G, 22A, 29pts in 44 games, for a .62 point average. For comparison, last year Cam York almost doubled that with a 1.03 point average (admittedly, on a way better team). The year prior, Bode Wilde also beat that with a .67 point average. Neither of those guys realistically project as Norris-caliber players.
If you don't buy the points argument you can look at the tools, but I don't see anything in the toolbox that indicates Allstar/Norris level offense. He's a great skater, sure, but you can't really skate your way to 60-70 points. Shot is okay, nothing to write home about. Decent vision in the O-zone, but has a lot of work to show he can QB an NHL powerplay. Stickhandling is pretty poor frankly, and I think that will limit his effectiveness at moving the puck through the neutral zone in spite of his skating ability.
I guess I can't sit here and say that Jake Sanderson will never ever win the Norris, but pretty much every Allstar/Norris level defenseman I can think of had significantly better offensive tools as a prospect than Jake Sanderson does.