Prospect Info: Who is the Canucks #2 prospect?

[Shareefruck]

I think people are confused about what they are voting on. Best prospect in terms of NHL readiness right now? Or in terms of "potential"?

If it's in terms of NHL readiness how is Jordan Schroeder not much much higher?

Prospect: The possibility or likelihood of some future event occurring.

It has nothing to do with NHL readiness, but rather the future peak that they're likely to reach.

If you're NHL-ready, you're guaranteed some peak, which gives you an advantage, but if a prospect is LIKELY to become better than Schroeder is right now (and his eventual peak), then he's a better prospect than Schroeder is even if Schroeder is further along in his development.

 

[Aphid Attraction]

Prospect: The possibility or likelihood of some future event occurring.

It has nothing to do with NHL readiness, but rather the future peak that they're likely to reach.

If you're NHL-ready, you're guaranteed some peak, which gives you an advantage, but if a prospect is LIKELY to become better than Schroeder is right now (and his eventual peak), then he's a better prospect than Schroeder is even if Schroeder is further along in his development.

I think it is the opposite, seems the younger and newer guys get the advantage in these polls at least.

 

[Wisp]

I think it is the opposite, seems the younger and newer guys get the advantage in these polls at least.

Corrado is winning.

 

[denkiteki]

I love Corrado, but I think he's getting a little over rated here. I don't see first pairing potential in him, more of a steady 2nd pairing guy is realistically where I think he tops out.

Voted Hunter Shinkaruk. Possibly a case of 'shiny new toy' syndrome, but I do think Shinkaruk has extremely high upside. Not sure why exactly he fell to us, but I think a lot of teams are going to be kicking themselves in a few years. I can't remember the last time we have drafted a player that has the offensive ceiling of Hunter. But I have seen a lot of people praising not only his offensive ability, but his compete level. Couple that with the fact that 1. He was largely considered a top-10 pick in the draft. 2. Will likely be playing for Canada at the WJCs in a top 6 role. Yeah, I'm excited.

Exactly but 2nd pairing shouldn't be under-rated either... given you could make an argument our entire defense is full of 2nd pairing dmans. I mean just look at the #1 dman threads that come up every season...

Corrado has my 3rd place vote unless he wins 2nd (still looks pretty close)... think he's winning now but it has been close. Looks like 4th place might be the next interesting one with Jensen vs Gaunce vs maybe Lack (tho i really don't consider him a prospect) and maybe JS.

 

[keslerburrows]

Corrado takes the lead. Good to see.

 

[Aphid Attraction]

First poll went up before scrimmage game yesterday, and consensus seems to be that Jensen didn't look good. He also didn't put up the numbers in his first partial season with the Wolves. I want to see him produce on North American ice before I move him up this high in the prospect list.

As for Corrado, he's way overrated based on his steady play in a few call-up games at the end of last year. Sure, he's all but a lock avoid the bust label, but the question mark for me is his upside.

In his first showing at AHL level he had 6 regular season games and was 4-0-4 then in the playoffs he had 2 games and went 2-0-2...

 

[Aphid Attraction]

Corrado is winning.

That dose not make what I said untrue...

 

[Intoewsables]

I'm still confused as to how Corrado is a better prospect then Gaunce?

Ignoring draft position, what has Gaunce done to be ranked ahead of Corrado?

 

[Wolfhard]

My voting is based on who I think will have the most effective career. I think a guy like Shinkaruk will have the highest and most successful peak, but someone like Gaunce, Horvat, and possibly Jensen will have longer careers and might be more consistent at what they bring to the table, and therefor be more valuable to the team over the long haul. So I would put those 3 ahead of Shinkaruk.

Corrado I've really liked since the Young Stars tourney a few years ago, when he was the 2nd best player there (after Jensen who looked like a man amongst boys), and was skating circles around everyone. But he's got some weight to gain and a bit to learn about not getting himself in poor positions. If he doesn't change those areas, he'll end up getting hurt and not contributing much. He's definitely promising, but isn't a consideration to me until around the #5 spot.

Cole Cassels definitely looks impressive in the prospects scrimmage too. He's a nice darkhorse.

 

[thefeebster]

I think it is the opposite, seems the younger and newer guys get the advantage in these polls at least.

I disagree. Corrado is winning, is he considered the younger and newer guys?

Or are you referencing Jensen's placement? Horvat won because he is our best prospect and the voting wasn't even close. If Horvat and Jensen were in their same draft year and you compared their 17 year old season, I would still choose Horvat 10/10 times because of his consistency, contributing much more with his all around play and not sacrificing much offensively at all. IMO, both have 2nd line upside, with Horvat having a much higher probability to reaching it with his work ethic.

On to Shinkaruk (aka the newer/younger guy) vs Jensen; both sniping wingers who are able to put the puck in the net. However, I simply think Shinkaruk is on another level potential wise, large difference from a 1st line winger to a 2nd line winger IMO. Shinkaruk is a guy who has the ability to carry the offense and create it, in a way Jensen cannot. Both carry risk in their ability to reach their potentials; Shinkaruk with his strength and Jensen's inconsistency. I think the past 3 seasons has highlighted inconsistency as an ongoing concern with Jensen. Same issues in Oshawa, same issues with AIK which led partially to his benchings and inconsistent ice times, same issues with the Wolves. Nonexistent in his NHL stint, he still has work to do to becoming NHL ready and reaching his potential.

 

[Aphid Attraction]

I disagree. Corrado is winning, is he considered the younger and newer guys?

Or are you referencing Jensen's placement? Horvat won because he is our best prospect and the voting wasn't even close. If Horvat and Jensen were in their same draft year and you compared their 17 year old season, I would still choose Horvat 10/10 times because of his consistency, contributing much more with his all around play and not sacrificing much offensively. IMO, both have 2nd line upside, with Horvat having a much higher probability to reaching it.

On to Shinkaruk vs Jensen; both sniping wingers who are able to put the puck in the net. However, I simply think Shinkaruk is on another level potential wise, large difference from a 1st line winger to a 2nd line winger IMO. Shinkaruk is a guy who has the ability to carry the offense and create it, in a way Jensen cannot. Both carry risk in their ability to reach their potentials; Shinkaruk with his strength and Jensen's inconsistency. I think the past 3 seasons has highlighted inconsistency as an ongoing concern with Jensen. Same issues in Oshawa, same issues with AIK which led partially to his benchings and inconsistent ice times, same issues with the Wolves. Nonexistent in his NHL stint, he still has work to do to becoming NHL ready and reaching his potential.

Im not going to try an pretend to know 1/10th about prospects as you...

But from my POV, taking away the outcome of individual polls, since just because someone has an advantage does not me they will win, just that they have an advantage in an area...

IMHO they have a "shiny new toy" advantage, that may sway some voters, but they also have an advantage due to how people project "upside". take Shinkaruk for example, everyone seems to agree that at this stage he has 1st line upside if he carries on the right development path. but as he gets closer to being NHL ready, (in two years from now) he may not have continued on that path. He may struggle in the AHL, and then posters may think that he only has 2nd line upside.

that is why I think in user polls the newer guys have an advantage...

 

[denkiteki]

I'm still confused as to how Corrado is a better prospect then Gaunce?

Corrado was one of the best dman in the OHL and did not look out of place with the 'nucks for a few games (including playoffs). Of course i wasn't a fan of playing him in the playoffs since it burned a year off his ELC (and it didn't make any difference in the series but i guess AV thought he gave us the best chance of winning so can't really complain).

When he went to training camp for Team Canada (Jr), it was argued he was by far the best dman (but got cut due to the roster d-spots already pre-determined, you can google this to find many stories/tweets for various sources) and of course team Canada failed but the coach on the team almost instantly traded for him in the OHL and played him top minutes with Ryan Murphy (12nd Overall pick Car, same draft as Gaunce). Could easily debate he actually out played Murphy too (tho not as good offensively, Corrado was much better defensively).

So basically he's clearly a bottom pairing dman right now (at least could on teams with less depth) and has offensive upside. He plays a lot like Tanev and knows how to play positional hockey and defend even while not as strong as some of the players he's up against (even threw a few good hits). His physical play should improve as he bulks up (and he probably will over the next few summers). He also has a decent offensive game that could/should develop. All signs points to him having a great chance being a top 4 dman one day and a decent one too plus could make the team next year.

Not saying Gaunce didn't have a good year but in terms of development, he didn't take a huge step like Corrado. He did have a great playoff run (not as good as Horvat and the main reason Horvat spiked up the draft charts) and for the most part a good regular season. Nothing exceptional in development and a 2nd/3rd line center is at best a wash with a top 4 dman (projections), Corrado ends up being the better prospect (tho i still voted for Shinkaruk due to his upside being a PPG player).

 

[Harold]

. I think the past 3 seasons has highlighted inconsistency as an ongoing concern with Jensen. Same issues in Oshawa, same issues with AIK which led partially to his benchings and inconsistent ice times, same issues with the Wolves. Nonexistent in his NHL stint, he still has work to do to becoming NHL ready and reaching his potential.

To be completely fair, Jensen scored 17 goals with AIK, which lead his team. Pretty good for a 19-year old in the top pro league in Sweden. That was also good enough to lead all Elitserien rookies in goal scoring.

And his NHL stint was a two game sample size.

I do agree with you that he has work to do to become NHL ready and reach his potential.

 

[thefeebster]

Im not going to try an pretend to know 1/10th about prospects as you...

But from my POV, taking away the outcome of individual polls, since just because someone has an advantage does not me they will win, just that they have an advantage in an area...

IMHO they have a "shiny new toy" advantage, that may sway some voters, but they also have an advantage due to how people project "upside". take Shinkaruk for example, everyone seems to agree that at this stage he has 1st line upside if he carries on the right development path. but as he gets closer to being NHL ready, (in two years from now) he may not have continued on that path. He may struggle in the AHL, and then posters may think that he only has 2nd line upside.

that is why I think in user polls the newer guys have an advantage...

If they have this shiny new toy advantage and don't win, I don't see them having much of an advantage at all. To me, in this poll and previous polls, NHL readiness is weighed rather heavily here. Gaunce was ranked 6th in last years polls for an example, he was the shiny new toy last year.

In response to your Shinkaruk example, i use Jensen as an example. As he has gotten closer to being NHL ready (2 years after being drafted), his upside has not changed at all since being drafted, which was and is a top 6 winger or bust. Sure, upside projections can change, but they can also remain the same.

To be completely fair, Jensen scored 17 goals with AIK, which lead his team. Pretty good for a 19-year old in the top pro league in Sweden. That was also good enough to lead all Elitserien rookies in goal scoring.

And his NHL stint was a two game sample size.

I do agree with you that he has work to do to become NHL ready and reach his potential.

I am aware of his achievements in the SEL. But I wasn't arguing whether or not he can score goals, in fact I started by saying he can put the puck in the net.

I was stating that Jensen's on ice play is very inconsistent and has been for several years. The flags have been there and remained there.

 

[Aphid Attraction]

If they have this shiny new toy advantage and don't win, I don't see them having much of an advantage at all. To me, in this poll and previous polls, NHL readiness is weighed rather heavily here. Gaunce was ranked 6th in last years polls for an example, he was the shiny new toy last year.

In response to your Shinkaruk example, i use Jensen as an example. As he has gotten closer to being NHL ready (2 years after being drafted), his upside has not changed at all since being drafted, which was and is a top 6 winger or bust. Sure, upside projections can change, but they can also remain the same.

I am aware of his achievements in the SEL. But I wasn't arguing whether or not he can score goals, in fact I started by saying he can put the puck in the net.

I was stating that Jensen's on ice play is very inconsistent and has been for several years. The flags have been there and remained there.

Its just my opinion that with prospects in general, if you are two weeks out from the draft you cant have lost any upside, but if you are two years out you may have lost some upside, ergo that gives the just drafted guys an advantage. Im not saying that when you have an advantage It is always a great advantage and Im not dealing in absolutes, anyways I dont think my opinion is important enough to clog up a thread that I dont even vote in...

 

[alternate]

Voted Corrado. Feel he's pretty much a lock to be an NHLer, and a pretty safe bet to establish himself as a top 4. Also agree he could develop into a Hamhuis type #2 (maybe a more physical Hamhuis with a better shot). Gaunce is probably the only other prospect in the mix at this point with as high a floor as Corrado, and while Shinkaruk might be the prospect with the most pure skill, he also has to be considered the most likely to bust in our top 5-6 prospects.

Put everything together--floor, ceiling, likelihood of busting / reaching ceiling, utility if they don't reach their peak potential, and positional value--and I go with the dman who should be better than Tanev in 3 years.

when I started this post, score was 64-61 Corrado...run-off?

 

[Aphid Attraction]

Voted Corrado. Feel he's pretty much a lock to be an NHLer, and a pretty safe bet to establish himself as a top 4. Also agree he could develop into a Hamhuis type #2 (maybe a more physical Hamhuis with a better shot). Gaunce is probably the only other prospect in the mix at this point with as high a floor as Corrado, and while Shinkaruk might be the prospect with the most pure skill, he also has to be considered the most likely to bust in our top 5-6 prospects.

Put everything together--floor, ceiling, likelihood of busting / reaching ceiling, utility if they don't reach their peak potential, and positional value--and I go with the dman who should be better than Tanev in 3 years.

when I started this post, score was 64-61 Corrado...run-off?

admittedly this post is the exact opposite of what I was saying...

 

[Dr Awesome]

Lack

 

[StringerBell]

This poll deserves a tiebreaker. I would be interested to see how the Jensen/Gaunce crowd vote if it's just Corrado/Shinkaruk.

 

[alternate]

admittedly this post is the exact opposite of what I was saying...

sorry....


But your point is valid. Put another way, there's still every reason to believe the new prospect will "overcome" all his shortcomings. It's easier to believe right now that Shinkaruk's lack of strength won't be an issue in a couple of years, while it's harder to believe that Schroeder will over come his lack of height (compared to his draft day).

I don't know if it makes a difference over-all in these polls though. Just as there are voters who look optimistically at the fresh prospects ceiling, there's also voters who feel a prospect that's likely to carve out a pedestrian 600 game career is a better prospect than one that either makes it as a top line scorer, or he doesn't make it. I'd guess it more or less evens out.

 

[Pip]

This poll deserves a tiebreaker. I would be interested to see how the Jensen/Gaunce crowd vote if it's just Corrado/Shinkaruk.

I agree. Although I voted Jensen, I think we should do a Corrado vs Shinkaruk poll.

 

[Shareefruck]

I think it is the opposite, seems the younger and newer guys get the advantage in these polls at least.

They get the advantage because a guy like Schroeder is not as far long in his development at this age as they expected, not because being NHL ready is a disadvantage.

The newer guys do get the advantage in these polls because their upside is unknown and we're all dreamers, but if Schroeder was already a solid second liner and looked poised to continue improving (or if he won a Calder or something), do you still think the new guys would be viewed as being better prospects than him?

 

[Saturated Fats]

Just an FYI that, though the poll will still technically be open, I'll be taking the result at Noon tomorrow as final.

 

[Aphid Attraction]

They get the advantage because a guy like Schroeder is not as far long in his development at this age as they expected, not because being NHL ready is a disadvantage.

The newer guys do get the advantage in these polls because their upside is unknown and we're all dreamers, but if Schroeder was already a solid second liner and looked poised to continue improving (or if he won a Calder or something), do you still think the new guys would be viewed as being better prospects than him?

I dont know if this is a rhetorical question, But no
If he won the Calder or was even in the race, he would easily be the top prospect.

 

[Shareefruck]

I dont know if this is a rhetorical question, But no
If he won the Calder or was even in the race, he would easily be the top prospect.

That was a rhetorical question-- NHL readiness/being further along in development relative to expectations is not a disadvantage-- it only seems that way because alot of prospects who are further along in their development/more NHL ready than raw prospects are also not as far along in their development as they were expected to be.