Speculation: What Would Gardiner's Contract Be If He Re-signs in TOR?

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Well only time will tell. Leafs d is still suspect IMO

Oh, I understand that a few positions are suspect, but almost all teams are suspect at the back end.
Reilly, Gardiner, Dermot, Zaitsev and Hainsey look solid for this year. Carrick has a shot though I don't he is NHL good. Will Borgman, or Ozhignkov be good enough. We'll see. If nothing else, the Leafs do have cap space and non contending teams might be trading closer to the TDL. You could look at the back end of Boston and Tampa's clubs and wonder if their back ends are good enough either. But you're right, time will tell, and I imagine the Leafs and a lot of teams will be making adjustments to their Dmen as the season progresses.

 

[Morbo]

I don't know I haven't gone into the specifics but there would be a number of teams interested in nylander.

you have a pretty strong opinion on the Leafs defence and needing to trade Nylander to fix it considering you haven't gone into the specifics.

but that's the problem with this place, isn't it? things become tropes that get repeated without a whole lot of examination.

let's not forget that unless we're in a salary cap thread discussing what players the Leafs will have to trade away, Nylander is not worth any defenceman that would move the needle for Toronto, according to HFBoards at least.

given all this, seems unlikely trading him will help much. better to keep him and let Dermott and Liljegren etc. develop.

 

[Kamiccolo]

They absolutely should not resign Jake Gardiner.

If the Leafs took the advice from HF, they would not even be a playoff team. I trust management to make the right move.

Letting him walk for free doesn’t improve the team moving forward either. Like you said. He is a #3 defenceman which is middle pairing as well. If you can find a 30 point (even a 20 point) middle pairing stay at home defenceman it could help them in a lot of ways. They have plenty of offence.

.. You are in a thread about re-signing him, who said he would walk for free? For all we know Dubas is able to get everyone signed because they all take big discounts.

 

[FerrisRox]

let's not forget that unless we're in a salary cap thread discussing what players the Leafs will have to trade away, Nylander is not worth any defenceman that would move the needle for Toronto, according to HFBoards at least.

I don't think that's true at all.

I think the issue is there is a disconnect between where exactly in the development arc that defenseman may be.

I think Nylander could be traded tomorrow for a defenseman that could be a very valuable core piece for the Maple Leafs and could be a guy hoisting the cup in the Blue & White.

The issue is, a lot of Maple Leaf fans only want Nylander traded for a defenseman that can step in tomorrow and be that guy. They project Nylander's potential and act like they are trading a 90 point forward and expect that return.

The reality is, defenseman are worth more than wingers (and let's not open the can of worms where we pretend Nylander is a center) and if you trade Nylander today, you're going to, to a certain extent, be gambling a bit that you guy you acquire becomes that stud core piece defeneman, he's not that guy today.

Today, Nylander is a 60 point winger. Could he be an 85 point winger down the road? Could he be a 90 point centre down the road? Sure.

But today he is not that, or, in a best case scenario, he's not that yet. The notion he could be traded and be traded at his full projected value and get back a stud defenseman who can slot in on the first pair today is silly and is (quite reasonably) mocked a lot on the main trade boards.

But if the Leafs hockey brass got together and formed a consensus on a young blueliner they project to one day down the road be the kind of core piece defender this team badly needs, they could roll the dice on a Nylander trade and acquire that guy and hope they are right and he turns into exactly what they need.

Not a perfect example because of the age differences, but years ago, when the St. Louis Blues traded Brendan Shanhan to Hartford for Chris Pronger they were mocked and criticized for not getting a full return on a player of Shanhan's skillset and pedigree.

A few years later, when Pronger developed more, the idea that he would be traded straight up for Brendan Shanahan was laughable. Pronger's value dwarfed Shanahan's. The Blues identified a guy they thought was going to be a stud and they made the deal at the right time. It was a leap of faith (though Pronger was very highly regarded so it wasn't a huge leap of faith) but Keenan (in a rare moment of clarity) saw that Pronger's development was stagnating in Hartford and swooped in and plucked him.

 

[Randy Randerson]

That's not what I said. The question was should the ceiling for the Gardner contract be the Ellis contract who happens to play in a state with no state taxes. No it shouldn't . Just like it shouldnt be if Seguin signed his contract first it shouldn't be used as a ceiling for Tavares because Seguin could sign for a lot less then tavares and still take home more money which he is doing now.

if what you're saying is true, you would be able to look at teams like Nashville and the Florida teams and notice a consistent 15% discount from market at the time of signing. Are Kucherov, Johansen (measured against last year's cap), Turris, Rinne (measured against the 2011/2012 cap), Huberdeau (16/17 cap), Ekblad (16/17 cap), Matheson, Callahan (14/15 cap), Palat (17/18 cap), McDonagh, Killorn (16/17 cap) etc all about 15% average underpaid at the time of signing? If not, then your boat has holes in it

you're using 2 guys who took less money to stay in a familiar situation with a chance to win and believing that is the standard. No one looked at the Ellis contract and thought he left a million dollars a year on the table, it was a decent rate but in line with expectations. There's also a reason the players association preaches to their membership to not take discounts (and ask for NMC's and other player-advantage contract elements), they set precedent for the next guy

Ultimately it's a supply and demand system that determines the price, subject to the constraints of the financial model (salary cap, player cap) that determine what a player is going to be paid. Things like security, chances to win and familiarity (and sure, differences in income taxes by region would fit here too) often have an effect on the player's willingness to give ground, and things like team cap situation, need/surplus at the position, and (heavily) recently comparable contracts affect what the team is willing to give. The methodology for objective arbitration of contracts is based on the comparable system, so suggesting that one doesn't set precedent for the next is just not valid

 

[shortfuze]

.. You are in a thread about re-signing him, who said he would walk for free? For all we know Dubas is able to get everyone signed because they all take big discounts.

All the more power to the team if Dubas can do that.

 

[OVO16]

Jake Gardiner aint re-signing with us. Not that he won't want too, but because we won't offer him a contract. He's going to be trade bait very soon...or he takes the JVR route and we decided Gardiner is just too important for a playoff push and can't trade him at the deadline...leaving him open to go anywhere in FA

 

[tony d]

5 yrs. at 5.5 million per.

 

[NotOpie]

So let's say they even move the cap up to about $85 million next season.....

I'd be careful about counting on the cap rising with the CBA looming in a year or two. The higher the cap the larger the escrow and that, my friends, is the key issue the players are going to fight about. My guess is the cap will stay stagnant or rise slightly....especially after this year's significant jump.

I think the best thing to do is if you can’t re-sign him you trade him in the season for another defenceman that is cheaper but is capable of playing in the top 4.

Easier said than done. If I've got a Top 4 guy who is cheaper (and maybe signed longer term), why would I trade him for Gardiner? Are the Leafs adding something (I wouldn't)? Deadline trades rarely return roster players, so counting on this strategy seems like a long shot.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

So let's say they even move the cap up to about $85 million next season.....

Wasn't he big bump this year because of the Vegas expansion fee ?

 

[shortfuze]

I'd be careful about counting on the cap rising with the CBA looming in a year or two. The higher the cap the larger the escrow and that, my friends, is the key issue the players are going to fight about. My guess is the cap will stay stagnant or rise slightly....especially after this year's significant jump.



Easier said than done. If I've got a Top 4 guy who is cheaper (and maybe signed longer term), why would I trade him for Gardiner? Are the Leafs adding something (I wouldn't)? Deadline trades rarely return roster players, so counting on this strategy seems like a long shot.

Because not all teams have a 50 point plus defenceman. Some may have more stay at home defenceman then offensive defenceman. Plus it doesn’t have to be at the deadline. Could be earlier in the season.

 

[Nylanderthal]

They are screwed. Leafs not going anywhere with that defense. Signing there star players to large contracts and not using some of that money to fix their backend is what will screw them up long term. The smart move would be to move Nylander for a top 4 dman instead of signing him to 7 mil plus multi year deal

Good thing Nylander isn’t getting a dime over 6.5 then isn’t it?
Wanna talk about screwed? Your teams arena is in a cow pasture, your owner stretches out pennies to make copper wire and your GM can’t get fair value on a trade to save his life (or have the foresight to relinquish this years pick vs the 19 1st) ya Toronto is screwed with all our money and talent.
Take a lap

Wasn't he big bump this year because of the Vegas expansion fee ?

Expansion fees do not count for league revenue as far as the cap goes. I expect a similar cap increase this upcoming year as well unless the North American economy tanks hard during hockey season

 

[member 147413]

You think leafs gonna keep all their stars you need to put down the beer.

They’re still RFA’s, we would control their rights. Having a lot of good players that should get paid isn’t a bad problem to have, especially when most are controllable assets.

 

[therealkoho]

I don't see how the Leafs can pay Gardiner $6 million a year and still afford to keep all their core together.

Mathews is going to want a similar contract to JT and Marner not that much less than that. Nylander wants a long term contract probally in the 7 or 8 million per year range. Reilly and Andersen are both making $5 million per year. Kadri 4.5 million per year.

That will be around $60 Million tied up in 6 forwards, 2 Dmen, and your starting goalie. So let's say they even move the cap up to about $85 million next season.....That will leave the Leafs with about $25 million to spend on about 13 roster spots. Oh and I forgot to mention Marleau who still has another year after this one and is making 6.2 million per year. So for the 2019-2020 season that leaves about $19 million for 12 spots. Goodluck trying to build depth and an above average defense with that remaining salary.

well then, maybe the Leafs should just fold the tent and get out now, I can't believe they didn't see any of this coming

you do know that next years numbers do include the last year of Hortons 5.3m, i'd get your calculator out again and try the doomsday scenario again, it all works out

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

Expansion fees do not count for league revenue as far as the cap goes. I expect a similar cap increase this upcoming year as well unless the North American economy tanks hard during hockey season

You are right.

Part of section 50.1 of the CBA:

"(b) Notwithstanding anything to the contrary in Section 50.1(a) above, HRR shall not
include the following non-exhaustive list of revenues:
(...)
(ii) Revenues from the relocation or sale of any existing Club (or any interest
therein) or the grant of any new franchise;"

 

[hockeyguy1967]

Good thing Nylander isn’t getting a dime over 6.5 then isn’t it?
Wanna talk about screwed? Your teams arena is in a cow pasture, your owner stretches out pennies to make copper wire and your GM can’t get fair value on a trade to save his life (or have the foresight to relinquish this years pick vs the 19 1st) ya Toronto is screwed with all our money and talent.
Take a lap

People have heard that since 1967. Ottawa has had much more success than the Leafs have the last 50 years... To be honest I cannot really think of one franchise who has not. 50+ years and not one finals appearance is unheard of.

 

[Tysonson3]

If the leafs really want to keep him they should offer him a full 8 years like the preds did Ryan Ellis to keep the cap hit down. Probably a pretty comparable contract

 

[JackFr]

As a UFA he'll likely get between 6.5-7.5. I think the Leafs probably just hope Dermott is ready for the role.

 

[rent free]

If the leafs really want to keep him they should offer him a full 8 years like the preds did Ryan Ellis to keep the cap hit down. Probably a pretty comparable contract

if they offer him a full 8 years, the cap hit's gonna go up because he is sacrificing more ufa years

 

[Tysonson3]

if they offer him a full 8 years, the cap hit's gonna go up because he is sacrificing more ufa years

UFA years from age 29-37. That logic only applies to RFA contracts. You think if the flyers added 2 extra years to JVR’s contract then he’d be making 8 per year?

 

[rent free]

UFA years from age 29-37. That logic only applies to RFA contracts.

i thought you were talking about nylander when i responded to you

 

[Tysonson3]

i thought you were talking about nylander when i responded to you

Ahhh I see now. Was referring to gardiner

 

[rent free]

Ahhh I see now. Was referring to gardiner

yah i saw that

 

[Morbo]

I don't think that's true at all.

I think the issue is there is a disconnect between where exactly in the development arc that defenseman may be.

I think Nylander could be traded tomorrow for a defenseman that could be a very valuable core piece for the Maple Leafs and could be a guy hoisting the cup in the Blue & White.

The issue is, a lot of Maple Leaf fans only want Nylander traded for a defenseman that can step in tomorrow and be that guy. They project Nylander's potential and act like they are trading a 90 point forward and expect that return.

The reality is, defenseman are worth more than wingers (and let's not open the can of worms where we pretend Nylander is a center) and if you trade Nylander today, you're going to, to a certain extent, be gambling a bit that you guy you acquire becomes that stud core piece defeneman, he's not that guy today.

Today, Nylander is a 60 point winger. Could he be an 85 point winger down the road? Could he be a 90 point centre down the road? Sure.

But today he is not that, or, in a best case scenario, he's not that yet. The notion he could be traded and be traded at his full projected value and get back a stud defenseman who can slot in on the first pair today is silly and is (quite reasonably) mocked a lot on the main trade boards.

But if the Leafs hockey brass got together and formed a consensus on a young blueliner they project to one day down the road be the kind of core piece defender this team badly needs, they could roll the dice on a Nylander trade and acquire that guy and hope they are right and he turns into exactly what they need.

ok...are you trying to say Nylander is gettable for a defence prospect? And further, that this is fair value for a player that age who put up 2 60+ point seasons?
And even beyond that...that Nylander would have to be an 85-90 point forward to return an actual good defenceman???

because I think that's what you're saying...but it's hard to tell because, as usual, no actual names are supplied.

Rolling the dice is not something the Leafs need to or will do when it comes to Nylander.

 

[Pyrophorus]

How many 50pt dmen are in the League, and what are they getting paid?