Speculation: What Would Gardiner's Contract Be If He Re-signs in TOR?

Cotton

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May 13, 2013
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It certainly doesn't look like the Leafs have the cap for Gardiner. A bigger question is why would the Leaf really want to pay a LHD so much . Next season Reilly and Dermot have too spots (likely). Then it's Borgman, Rosen or maybe an inexpensive UFA, Maybe Sandin is really in 2020/21. I just don't see the urgency in signing Gardiner for the cap strapped Leafs.

Well, beyond the fact the title of the thread is misleading and we don't actually know if Dubas will try and extend him, you're right that he isnt a priority right now.

I don't see them extending him anyway, I think he's on a relatively short leash and if he doesn't remedy his frequent mental lapses in his own end over the course of the season/playoffs they'll move on from him, by letting him walk. He's like Shattenkirk, his offense is great, but we dont have anyone good enough on the right at this point to carry him in the D zone.
 

sharks9

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It's nice that he's saying that, but impossible for him to know what Nylander, Matthews, and Marner will sign for. They'll also need to re-sign Kapanen, Johnsson, and Carrick too. Not that those last 3 will get a lot of money, but a couple small raises might make it too hard for them to meet Gardiner's asking price.
 

Nalens Oga

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I have a lot of time for analytics and using them BUT the one thing you have to consider is the playoffs and how the law of averages doesn't apply as well over 7 game series as it does over an 82 game schedule.

Jake Gardiner is a guy that will do good thing maybe 70% of the time and bad things 30% (tbh I'm being generous I think it's less than that). Over an 82 game regular season, that works out for you as a net positive. In the playoffs, you CANNOT afford to have such a high risk dman playing that many minutes. He had a shockingly bad game 7 but people forget that he wasn't exactly good in their playoff series the year before or the Boston 2014 one. The guy is not the answer on their defence when it comes to the playoffs and it's insanity to keep trying the same thing out over and over again.
 

indigobuffalo

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Feb 10, 2011
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I know that the common sentiment was that he was as good as gone with the big three deals, however it appears he is in their plans. This is amazing news for me personally as I am a huge fan of his. Thought it might be worth a thread as this news kind of unconfirms what was accepted by most Leaf fans and fans on here.

So what do you think his contract will look like?


It would only come as a surprise to people who don’t listen to a single word Dubas says.

Dubas has said, don’t look at “what have you done lately”, look at the history.

Historically, Jake has been a very good defender and just put up a record season.

If you’re a GM tossing away 50-point defenders like it’s no big deal then clearly you graduated from the Mike Milbury school of hockey operations.

The team has been pretty clear from day one Gardiner was an important piece and would be back and re-signed.

What has been so unbelievable has been the endless barrage of “dump Gardiner” threads that sprung up.

And people offer Gardiner in crap trade after crap trade to gauge his value and of course other fan bases trash him...
 

lifelonghockeyfan

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Dec 18, 2015
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I don't how anyone can factually say" Historically, Jake has been a very good defender and just put up a record season." (post 54 above)
Yes Jake is good on the. PP. He can be average to good on full strength. But he so bad defensively, that Babcock doesn't play him on the PK....unless it a last resort.
Leafs likely need him this year, but like JVR or , he will priced himself out of the Leafs next year. There is just better value elsewhere for the Leafs.
 
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Halla

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It would only come as a surprise to people who don’t listen to a single word Dubas says.

Dubas has said, don’t look at “what have you done lately”, look at the history.

Historically, Jake has been a very good defender and just put up a record season.

If you’re a GM tossing away 50-point defenders like it’s no big deal then clearly you graduated from the Mike Milbury school of hockey operations.

The team has been pretty clear from day one Gardiner was an important piece and would be back and re-signed.

What has been so unbelievable has been the endless barrage of “dump Gardiner” threads that sprung up.

And people offer Gardiner in crap trade after crap trade to gauge his value and of course other fan bases trash him...

I think the all time low was when oilers fans debated whether they would even give up a 2nd for him...yeah the oilers with no dmen getting more than 26 pts despite getting to play on a PP with McDavid....
 
Jul 10, 2003
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He's is easily our 2nd best d and the drop off is pretty huge after that, so it makes sense to sign him, but honestly I didn't think we'd be able to afford him either.
 

SensFactor

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Oct 25, 2008
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Lol leafs are screwed. If I'm jake I'm asking 6.5 mil for 6 years. Couple that will Nylander asking 6 mil plus and marner, Matthews contracts coming up, leafs are going to need to give up something.
 

shortfuze

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I think the best thing to do is if you can’t re-sign him you trade him in the season for another defenceman that is cheaper but is capable of playing in the top 4. Would suck losing him but trade him to a team that could use his qualities and you know he would re-sign with that team.
 

Kamiccolo

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Is this really main board worthy? Nowhere does it say they're going to sign him. It's just a coach talking out loud.

What do you want him to say? "Nah, we dont want him back. Have you see our projected cap. You blem?"

Why is this on the main board? There's not even evidence about a contract in here. This is all conjecture at this point. There's nothing concrete about a contract.

We just had (still have) a 20+ page thread on how Babcock apparently hates Matthews and thinks he is a terrible leader because he didn't get a letter over several vets which has been DISPROVEN several times in the threads with direct quotes from each party involved. I am pretty sure if that is allowed we are allowed to discuss what a hypothetical contract will look like based on the coach saying they will sign him.


I have a lot of time for analytics and using them BUT the one thing you have to consider is the playoffs and how the law of averages doesn't apply as well over 7 game series as it does over an 82 game schedule.

Jake Gardiner is a guy that will do good thing maybe 70% of the time and bad things 30% (tbh I'm being generous I think it's less than that). Over an 82 game regular season, that works out for you as a net positive. In the playoffs, you CANNOT afford to have such a high risk dman playing that many minutes. He had a shockingly bad game 7 but people forget that he wasn't exactly good in their playoff series the year before or the Boston 2014 one. The guy is not the answer on their defence when it comes to the playoffs and it's insanity to keep trying the same thing out over and over again.

Haha what? Jake was the Leafs best player in 2013..not 2014. Against the caps he was also a great player and he had an overall good series against the Bruins outside of his last game meltdown. You are out to lunch on this one.

Lol leafs are screwed. If I'm jake I'm asking 6.5 mil for 6 years. Couple that will Nylander asking 6 mil plus and marner, Matthews contracts coming up, leafs are going to need to give up something.

It'a a good problem to have. However Marleau + Horton coming off the books is 10M right there. They will just keep replacing guys internally as they have their top 3 C's locked in and will have their top 2 wings locked in.

Once Hyman and Brown expire and get too expensive Johnsson and Kapanen will replace them, and those guys will get replaced on the 4th line. Down the road if Sandin becomes something and Dermott has taken a huge step, they will move Gardiner and his salary to fill a future need (maybe a top 9 LW for example) and keep repeating this cycle.

The Pens have won multiple cups on the backs of really two elite centers, an elite winger, and then a bunch of meh depth... And a goalie who can stand on his head when needed to. Leafs have that PLUS another elite winger which bridges the cap between the cores significantly (Crosby + Malkin + Kessel vs Tavares + Matthews + Marner + Nylander). Andersen already showed he is capabe of carrying the team for months at a time but he is also capable of letting down the team for weeks at a time.

They just need to go into the playoffs healthy and with Andersen going into one of his insane runs and they will win a cup.
 

Kamiccolo

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I think the best thing to do is if you can’t re-sign him you trade him in the season for another defenceman that is cheaper but is capable of playing in the top 4. Would suck losing him but trade him to a team that could use his qualities and you know he would re-sign with that team.

Issue is that is a huge downgrade. Gardiner is the Leafs best puck moving D. He is the best at transitioning the play to the rush. He can put up 50 points. He is very easily a #3 D. Moving that for a 30 point middle pair D is like adding another Zaitsev. That doesn't improve the team. IT makes them a lot worse.
 

bukwas

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Lol leafs are screwed. If I'm jake I'm asking 6.5 mil for 6 years. Couple that will Nylander asking 6 mil plus and marner, Matthews contracts coming up, leafs are going to need to give up something.
I suppose in the eyes of some posters having too much talent to be able to afford it all fits their definition of being screwed.
Personally i can think of many worse problems to have.
 

Canada4Gold

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Dec 22, 2010
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Probably in the 6.25 to 6.5 ish range, the fewer years the better. Would sign it in an instant if we could fit it in. Hopefully get get some lower deal on the big 3 so we can, we'll see.
 

strictlyrandy

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Sep 9, 2013
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So going by op's logic there needs to be a thread on the main board every time something insignificant involving the Leafs happen. This is why a majority of HF finds Leafs fans annoying.
 

shortfuze

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Apr 23, 2007
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Issue is that is a huge downgrade. Gardiner is the Leafs best puck moving D. He is the best at transitioning the play to the rush. He can put up 50 points. He is very easily a #3 D. Moving that for a 30 point middle pair D is like adding another Zaitsev. That doesn't improve the team. IT makes them a lot worse.
Letting him walk for free doesn’t improve the team moving forward either. Like you said. He is a #3 defenceman which is middle pairing as well. If you can find a 30 point (even a 20 point) middle pairing stay at home defenceman it could help them in a lot of ways. They have plenty of offence.
 

Rabid Ranger

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Let me ask you a question: Given your description of him, you're looking at a long-term 6.5+ contract. Would you be comfortable paying him that?

If the answer is yes, enjoy. I wouldn't touch that. If the answer is no, then maybe you're not being completely honest about his worth.

My personal feelings of Gardiner is he is far too inconsistent for that kind of money. He shows games where he is absolutely worth that, and then he can completely look like a liability out there.

I don't think he's inconsistent at all. He plays a risk/reward style which is deployed in a Mike Babcock coached system that results in the occasional high profile gaffe but is very productive. He raises the level of the teammates he shares the ice with and compliments skilled players. He's very much needed on the Leafs and will be resigned. 6 x 6.
 

Rabid Ranger

2 is better than one
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I think the best thing to do is if you can’t re-sign him you trade him in the season for another defenceman that is cheaper but is capable of playing in the top 4. Would suck losing him but trade him to a team that could use his qualities and you know he would re-sign with that team.

I see these kinds of deals suggested all the time but how often do they happen? Why would another team feel compelled to swap a d-man for Gardiner? Teams generally hoard that position, especially younger/cheaper players.
 

member 147413

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Lol leafs are screwed. If I'm jake I'm asking 6.5 mil for 6 years. Couple that will Nylander asking 6 mil plus and marner, Matthews contracts coming up, leafs are going to need to give up something.
You’re a Sens fan and you think the Leafs are screwed? Talk about delusion.
 
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