Speculation: What Would Gardiner's Contract Be If He Re-signs in TOR?

[TT1]

Petry got 5.5M, cap went up so lets say 5.75M-6M for Gardiner.

 

[CupInSIX]

As a UFA he'll likely get between 6.5-7.5. I think the Leafs probably just hope Dermott is ready for the role.

for a modern day Brisebois?

 

[FerrisRox]

if they offer him a full 8 years, the cap hit's gonna go up because he is sacrificing more ufa years

EDIT - Thought you were talking about Gardiner.

 

[DJN21]

I don't think that's true at all.

I think the issue is there is a disconnect between where exactly in the development arc that defenseman may be.

I think Nylander could be traded tomorrow for a defenseman that could be a very valuable core piece for the Maple Leafs and could be a guy hoisting the cup in the Blue & White.

The issue is, a lot of Maple Leaf fans only want Nylander traded for a defenseman that can step in tomorrow and be that guy. They project Nylander's potential and act like they are trading a 90 point forward and expect that return.

The reality is, defenseman are worth more than wingers (and let's not open the can of worms where we pretend Nylander is a center) and if you trade Nylander today, you're going to, to a certain extent, be gambling a bit that you guy you acquire becomes that stud core piece defeneman, he's not that guy today.

Today, Nylander is a 60 point winger. Could he be an 85 point winger down the road? Could he be a 90 point centre down the road? Sure.

But today he is not that, or, in a best case scenario, he's not that yet. The notion he could be traded and be traded at his full projected value and get back a stud defenseman who can slot in on the first pair today is silly and is (quite reasonably) mocked a lot on the main trade boards.

But if the Leafs hockey brass got together and formed a consensus on a young blueliner they project to one day down the road be the kind of core piece defender this team badly needs, they could roll the dice on a Nylander trade and acquire that guy and hope they are right and he turns into exactly what they need.

Not a perfect example because of the age differences, but years ago, when the St. Louis Blues traded Brendan Shanhan to Hartford for Chris Pronger they were mocked and criticized for not getting a full return on a player of Shanhan's skillset and pedigree.

A few years later, when Pronger developed more, the idea that he would be traded straight up for Brendan Shanahan was laughable. Pronger's value dwarfed Shanahan's. The Blues identified a guy they thought was going to be a stud and they made the deal at the right time. It was a leap of faith (though Pronger was very highly regarded so it wasn't a huge leap of faith) but Keenan (in a rare moment of clarity) saw that Pronger's development was stagnating in Hartford and swooped in and plucked him.

Nylander now dosent return pronger then. This thesis is well thought out but flawed.

 

[FerrisRox]

ok...are you trying to say Nylander is gettable for a defence prospect? And further, that this is fair value for a player that age who put up 2 60+ point seasons?
And even beyond that...that Nylander would have to be an 85-90 point forward to return an actual good defenceman???

because I think that's what you're saying...but it's hard to tell because, as usual, no actual names are supplied.

Rolling the dice is not something the Leafs need to or will do when it comes to Nylander.

Huh?

No.

What I was saying is that the narrative is not the Nylander can't return a solid defenseman (as you claimed) the narrative is that Nylander can't return someone that right now, today, is a solid top pairing defenseman, you'd have to acquire a guy that has the potential to be that player.

I thought that was pretty clear.

Nylander now dosent return pronger then. This thesis is well thought out but flawed.

So you are taking exception to the example that I literally called "not a perfect example."

 

[rent free]

EDIT - Thought you were talking about Gardiner.

What's did u type?

 

[lawrence]

7 million for 6 years sounds about right the way Leafs fans hype Gardiner like the superstar they think he is.

 

[Toronto makebeleifs]

Yeesh... No thank you. Gradiner puts up offensive numbers which do make his screw-ups in his own end worth the cost, but that is way too much money; that is Nylander money, and he is a much better investment to make at this point.

If the Leafs can lock up Gardiner for not too much more then he is making now, then they should go for it... but I don't think that is possible. They shouldn't be giving him top-pairing money though, because he just isn't that (although I think next off-season someone will offer him that, just like someone gave JVR $7 million this past summer). He is good, no doubt but in a cap era, the Leafs have to avoid overpaying him when there are other more valuable pieces to invest in first.

Only thing is that this would be his big cash contract and his last or 2nd last one overall. On the open market it wouldn't be unimaginable for him to get shattenkirk money with cap inflation. Sadly, Gardiner (unless he takes a discount) will get $6m+

 

[oooooooooohCanada]

I think you are reading too much into a Babcock quote. Babcock doesn't do the signing and trading for the Leafs, and Babs may have just been generous with his words.

Dubas himself said he has been talking to Gardiner's agent about an extension.

Yeesh... No thank you. Gradiner puts up offensive numbers which do make his screw-ups in his own end worth the cost, but that is way too much money; that is Nylander money, and he is a much better investment to make at this point.

If the Leafs can lock up Gardiner for not too much more then he is making now, then they should go for it... but I don't think that is possible. They shouldn't be giving him top-pairing money though, because he just isn't that (although I think next off-season someone will offer him that, just like someone gave JVR $7 million this past summer). He is good, no doubt but in a cap era, the Leafs have to avoid overpaying him when there are other more valuable pieces to invest in first.

Gardiner is technically our #1 (he plays the most minutes). So like yeah. Babcock loves him. He's in their plans longterm and if you don't like it then too bad I guess. He's a very good defenseman and is exactly the type of player we need for our offense style of play.

 

[Morbo]

Huh?

No.

What I was saying is that the narrative is not the Nylander can't return a solid defenseman (as you claimed) the narrative is that Nylander can't return someone that right now, today, is a solid top pairing defenseman, you'd have to acquire a guy that has the potential to be that player.

I thought that was pretty clear.

No that's the narrative. try reading some of these Nylander trade threads sometime.

And without any names, not even a single example, your argument has no punch whatsoever, no matter how clear it is.

 

[Morbo]

7 million for 6 years sounds about right the way Leafs fans hype Gardiner like the superstar they think he is.

ookay, more piercing insight from the West coast as usual...

 

[shortfuze]

7 million for 6 years sounds about right the way Leafs fans hype Gardiner like the superstar they think he is.

Are you new to all of this? For as good as Gardiner can be he has definitely had more haters. And after game 7 I’m surprised he made it out alive.

 

[member 300185]

I know that the common sentiment was that he was as good as gone with the big three deals, however it appears he is in their plans. This is amazing news for me personally as I am a huge fan of his. Thought it might be worth a thread as this news kind of unconfirms what was accepted by most Leaf fans and fans on here.

So what do you think his contract will look like?

Well, if he resigns it will be zero. If he re-signs then it would be more.

 

[varano]

I'm sure he'd want around 7. Leafs will let him walk at the end of the season. He just makes too many bone headed decisions

 

[Slyfox]

Hopefully, he can give us a discount. He's one of the Leafs best players and is still improving. One of the best players to watch on the Leafs. His skill, skating and ability to carry his defensive pair is underrated.

 

[Kamiccolo]

Well, if he resigns it will be zero. If he re-signs then it would be more.

A mod changed my title and had that error don't pin it on me.

 

[Kamiccolo]

7 million for 6 years sounds about right the way Leafs fans hype Gardiner like the superstar they think he is.

He would easily get 7M on the open market especially if he puts up another 50 point year. If he wants to stay a Leaf he'll have to take likely 2M less than that.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Lol leafs are screwed. If I'm jake I'm asking 6.5 mil for 6 years. Couple that will Nylander asking 6 mil plus and marner, Matthews contracts coming up, leafs are going to need to give up something.

Sens fan saying Leafs are screwed

Well, at least he is talking from first-hand experience.

More seriously, what has him being a Sens fan to do with his comment ?

I think if you read the post and actually take things into context he was referring to our salary cap situation, nothing more general in nature. At least, let's hope that's what he meant ......

 

[Maplebeasts]

7 million for 6 years sounds about right the way Leafs fans hype Gardiner like the superstar they think he is.

Nobody who should be taken seriously thinks he's a superstar. That being said though he is far better than anyone on the Canucks right now so I can forgive the jealousy.

 

[ole ole]

He would easily get 7M on the open market especially if he puts up another 50 point year. If he wants to stay a Leaf he'll have to take likely 2M less than that.

Like he'll take 2 mil less. He'll get what he's worth.

 

[Kamiccolo]

Like he'll take 2 mil less. He'll get what he's worth.

Then sadly he will have to go. Would be a big hit to the Leafs but it was a symptom of having the forwards that we do. The team will have to suck it up and use Marleau + Horton's money the year after to go after a D.

 

[indigobuffalo]

FMV would be around $7M so depending on how this season goes, another strong finish and if Nylander signs for less than $7.5M when he’s asking $8M I would think there’s a good chance Gardiner re-signs for $6.25M.

Dubas likes to use bonuses too, which we haven’t really seen yet at the NHL level because he’s new, but I could see a little bit of fancy incentives with a base salary lower than expected.

An example was the contract he got Rich Clune to sign. Friedman wrote about it, when it was new, I can’t find a link but there were bonuses for number of Marlies to graduate to The NHL, number of hits, and stuff like that.

 

[StroShow]

5 X 5.25 with a NTC.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Between 6-7 mil.

 

[Kranix]

He'll probably get Doughty's deal so it will be tough to keep him.